MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Colin looks to be regaining composure in the last frames of the Floater Vis Loop. 92L is rather ragged looking.
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Michael
PWS
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Lee-Delray
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 429
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If Colin regenerates is it still Colin or does it become Danielle (assuming 92L doesn't get that name)?
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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It would stay Colin unless it was indiscernible from the old system. It borderline happened with in 2005 when TD#10 formed, faded, then TD#12 formed that eventually became . TD#10 and TD#12 were basically the same area, but not quite, this is a case of where it was different. (See the 2005 thread about it)
Colin is pretty straightforward though, it would likely keep the name.
Doubt it'll happen before Tomorrow night at the earliest though.
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mikethewreck
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 52
Loc: Treasure Coast FL
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Am I going nuts or is there rotation in the blob following ex-Colin and 92L (~48W and 8N)?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rb.html
Look at the last few frames. Are my eyes deceiving me?
I'd also think the 8N/48W blob would be too far south to be a major concern. Reading through the last discussion I found no mention of it.
Searching for storms developing that far south I only found the 1990 Fran, a minimal TS that ran into South America.
It's okay if I'm nuts. It helps at work. 
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
Edited by mikethewreck (Wed Aug 04 2010 05:49 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Boom! Convection exploding over the "center" of Colin in the latest Floater Vis Loop. Movement is NW near 20.0N; 61.5W.
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Michael
PWS
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Over the last couple of hours a rather decent convective bloom has formed directly over the low-level circulation that was once TS Colin. Coordinates at 04/21Z were approximately 19.9N 61.6W and movement has slowed considerably - now northwest at about 10kts. Strong shear still exists to the north of the system. Surface winds still estimated at about 35kts.
ED
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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We're all looking at a rather impressive convective mass on all satellite images and the bottom line unfortunately is no closed surface low despite tropical storm (gale) force winds in the NE quadrant of the system. Shear analysis continues to indicate there are 30 to 40 knot winds aloft ahead of the wave and lows equally ahead in the near term.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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That "No closed surface circulation" statement was made several hours before that convective blow up. Conditions could be decidedly different now.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Ex-Colin continues to have a decent satellite signature. Concentrated area of lightning now being visible on the overnight visible satellite imagery. Area is circular and resembles a type structure.
I was somewhat surprised that RECON flew the system but given it's satellite presentation it appears that wanted to make sure that it was not a tropical cyclone. RECON did find Tropical storm force winds in the NE Quad of the system remnants... but no closed circulation.
This system is being closely watched, as evidenced by the RECON flight, satellite floater and models continuing to generate track data.
Models continue to take the remains out to sea and somewhat toward Bermuda.
92L is barely a honorable mention right now and the models continue to track it toward the Belize/ Yucatan Peninsula and into Northeastern Mexico.
Yet another tropical systems possibly going ashore in NE Mexico.
Northern GOM may need watching as several outflow boundaries have crossed through the MS/ LA Coastal areas over the last two days and into the Northern GOM. Not likely to develop anything but might get an extra glance or two.
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 04 2010 08:18 PM)
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craigm
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 327
Loc: Palm City, Florida
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This is off the immediate topic but relates to every topic.
Klotzbach and Gray have not changed their forecast for this season as outlined in the following report released today.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2010/aug2010/aug2010.pdf
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Why I'm here:
Weather hobbyist
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I'm wondering if Colin will be reestablished if that convection persists into tomorrow without being sheared off. 92L has no convection associated with it this evening.
Edit: 8 PM gives Colin a 40% chance of redevelopment.
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Michael
PWS
Edited by MichaelA (Wed Aug 04 2010 08:28 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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That's pretty far south and heading due West, so I don't think it will be anything significant. The area at 10N; 30W seems to be trying to wrap up, though.
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Michael
PWS
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 576
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We have to go with at the end of the day, but I did notice earlier in the day that some llv vorticity was spun out of the vicinity of where the system's lat/lon were pegged. This small gyre even had a single glaciating tower or two associated with it as it trundled away to the west and dissipated.
Edit: It should also be noted that has recoded Colin - or Colin's remnants - in Orange as of 8pm.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Aug 04 2010 09:26 PM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Flight plan issued today for Thursday. Subject to change. New Plan of the Day should be out by 10 AM Thursday.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 04 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-066
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0204A COLIN
C. 05/1630Z
D. 23.0N 67.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2130Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
04L
A. A 06/1800Z FIX ON COLIN IF STILL A VIABLE
SYSTEM NEAR 27.0N 69.0W.
92L
B. A POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 06/1500Z
NEAR 16.5N 84.5W.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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As I stated in my post; while it looks impressive on satellite at any given point in time doesn't mean it can sustain itself for any length of time and such is the case this evening and morning. The first chart forecasters like myself look at is the Wind Shear Analysis and for the moment the remains of Colin are embedded in winds aloft of 20 to 30 as high as 40 knots aloft. While 20 isn't death, 30 to 40 knots is for any tropical system to gain in vertical depth and organization. When I was in school the hardest thing I had to do when analyzing clouds were which ones were shallow, mid and upper level and determine what directions each of those elements were. Ed makes a good point about this in his met discussions....because there isn't a surface low does not mean there is no rotation within the system; it may be broad, it may be a remnant low or simply non-tropical; however in the mid and upper levels there is usually rotation. When mets refer to shear they normally are talking about winds at 300 millibars or 30,000 feet MSL. There is low level shear as was the case a couple of days ago; the Low Level Easterly Jet which can only be found in the Tropics. You may remember that the system was moving incredibly fast...30 mph which in and of itself is shear which in fact disrupted the system's surface circulation. Whatever becomes of this system for the near term is not a threat to the US with a oriented NE to SW acting like a big wall. Not to be too technical; we're currently in what mets call a 5 wave pattern; that is 5 longwave troughs around the globe. This pattern is generally progressive, that is there on the move; generally west to east. Long range models continue to reflect the Mid-Continental Upper Ridge to be in place...slightly weaken...re-strengthen and weaken ever so slightly again but retrograde further to the west allowing a longwave trough to set up shop near the East Coast. What this means is the East Coast is closed for business for the near future out at least one week. There will be a narrow opportunity for this system to become a depression as it moves NW in about 36 to 48 hours. Between now and then; doubtful though it won't be at all uncommon to see some big thunderstorms go up. What matters is can they be sustained. At the trough axis there is a clear dividing line between dry and subsidence air and rising and moist air; typical of tropical waves.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Upper level westerly windshear has exposed the low-level circulation of ex-Colin near 23.5N 65.2W at 05/13Z moving to the north. While the circulation does appear closed on satellite (similar to yesterday evening), all of the convection has been displaced to the east by the windshear. Some intensification seems likely once the system moves north of the shear zone, but the more northerly turn is a good indicator that the system will remain at sea as indicated by various model outputs.
ED
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Fairhopian
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 26
Loc:
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Quote:
92L has no convection associated with it this evening.
92L does have convection this morning and its upper level clouds appear to be somewhat aligned with its shallow clouds. Will the impending encounter with the upper ridge (to its immediate West) likely affect 92L's steering or rate of development? Watching what appears to be the "belt buckle" of 92L at 15N, 80W (I'm a former defensive back), its movement appears to be a little more north of due west in the last few frames. What does an upper ridge typically do to a tropical low crossing under it?
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Fairhopian
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 26
Loc:
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Okay, so the feature I described above may not be 92L exactly, but rather what appears to be the most dominant feature on the 92L floater. Any comments would still be appreciated. Thanks.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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Looking at visible satellite imagery this afternoon there is clearly a tight cyclonic swirl at the surface with convective activity displaced to the east. Wind Shear analysis has a small high just to the SW of the system but just to the NW an area of 40 knot winds aloft. I've seen worse presentations on satellite and systems have a depression or storm classification. By definition what were looking at is at least a depression but the winds aloft for the time being are going to make it next to impossible for "Colin" to maintain any level of vertical cohesiveness. There is an opportunity ahead for "Colin" to regain tropical storm status if the small anticyclone to its SW can travel along the top or travel in the narrow area of light winds aloft in about 24 more hours. This system is no threat to the US and especially if it does regain storm status and thus be steered by the mid and upper level winds which a long wave trough/TUTT will block an advance towards the US.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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I am wondering if Colin will end up being subtropical if/when it is classified. It just does not appear to be purely tropical in nature.
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2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
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