Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Back to more of an on-topic conversation, my best guess at a center is 27.3N 86.1W at 11/1340Z - and thats a real shot in the dark, literally, because there is no convection to speak of at that location. Convection is all displaced primarily to the northeast and southeast. Right now the structure has declined quite a bit and it would be a stretch to even consider TD5 as subtropical, but it is what it is (whatever that is). TD5 looks like it has never managed to overcome the influence of the ULL (currently south of eastern Louisiana) - which is odd because shear is quite light. Eastern Gulf systems can often be very difficult to track.
Invest 93L is still poorly organized. For two days the system has had a 60 to 70 percent likelyhood of development into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours and for two days the invest area has remained unchanged under southerly shear. But we'll wait for another two days and see if anything changes.
ED
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I don't believe that a low level center even exists anymore. If there is one, I'd place it more near 27.8N; 86.4W and moving fairly quickly to the WNW. The Tampa radar presentation shows the area of convection/rain in the SW quadrant has changed little and has significantly degraded nearer the coast. Echos are not as strong within the area either. Downgrade at 11 AM?
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm wondering if TD 5 is going to pull her arms in and spin up shortly. Like a skater does.
Not a whole lot of GOM left to change intensity.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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The 11 AM advisory did not downgrade, but hedged the analysis quite a bit by locating the "broad center" by wind analysis and not by a definite fix. Looks like TD5 is on the ropes and probably will not achieve TS status before making landfall unless things radically change.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The new RUC is out. Not much to talk about there. Here's a link. Short term model through 00Z (7pm EDT)
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/rucloopse.html#picture
WRF Radar loop forecast from 12Z.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WRFRAD_12z/jloop.html
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2010 11:18 AM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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I'm curious as to why hasn't classified as a subtropical depression, the upper low is in phase with the system well into the upper atmosphere and the wind field is that of a STD.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Aug 11 2010 11:33 AM)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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It appears to me that the center of TD 5 is actually southeast of where the shows. I tried looking for the center in the area that the shows but there is NO convection in that region. I think the low-level circulation could be in the convection off the west coast of Florida. The area that I think is the center is moving quickly just north of due west. Here is what I am looking at currently:http://weather.cod.edu/loops/Orleans-VIS.loop.html .
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Most probable reason is Life Safety due to the Macondo Oil Spill and close proximity to land.
That may be part of the reason they pulled the plug last evening due to the New 36 hour Warning Criteria. Almost any storm that forms in the GOM is 36 hours from landfall. Unless it follows a low latitude westerly track. and are examples of late.
The RUC and WRF aren't giving TD5 much more than a Low in the GOM. While other models are on the upper end of Tropical Storm. Lot s of data and not a lot of time to look at it.
RECON should be airborne shortly for the 3rd dimension.
RECON for tomorrow:
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 11 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-073
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1500, 1800, 2100Z
B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 12/1230Z
D. 29.6N 89.4W
E. 12/1430Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
Macondo Spill Site is near 28.736667°N/ 88.386944°W
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2010 11:54 AM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I concur that the LLC is east of where the posted it. More like just south of Apalachicola Florida near
29N and 85.2W but its elongated so they used the center of the elongation as a reference point. Landfall will probably be around Panama city or just east of there in the next 6-12hrs. I don't expect this to be a Tropical Storm. is correct that its too elongated and big to develop in time before landfall.
I'm more interested in the long term of 5 days + just too see what happens when this stall over Alabama-Georgia. and if it comes back into the GOM by this weekend.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I saw that in the loops this morning. I kind of blew it off a bit due to the ULL.
It would cool things off a bit though,
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 11 2010 12:05 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA
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That is my concern as well, that it might come on shore and stall in our area. Allison and Alberto were minimal storms at best, but a minimal storm can be really bad if it just sits on top of you for an extended length of time
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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Ed in Va
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 489
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What is the flare-up to the SW of 93L...is the Invest relocating?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html
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Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
Edited by Ed in Va (Wed Aug 11 2010 01:11 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
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This tropical depression is on borrowed time and looking at the wind shear analysis this morning; it's dead on arrival on the LA coast assuming it last that long. There's nothing I've looked at today that makes me believe one, this system is tropical and two, if subtropical then the worse weather will be occurring now as the center is devoid of thunderstorm activity with the strongest convection well to the SE of the CoC closer to SW FL.
Looking at 93L...there's a bullseye of 30 knots of shear just ahead of it and a blob of thunderstorm activity to its SW right on the edge of this isotach. Frankly 93L looks as if it's a Tropical Depression and it isn't.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Looking at the Eglin AFB radar products it appears that there is a vortice/ circulation about 120nm south of Eglin or about 60nm SSW of Appalachicola,Fl -AQQ.
Storm vorticity products aren't really that helpful at that height and range.
NOAA Data buoys aren't indicating any winds above 30 mph at this time.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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93L looks like a split. SW thunderstorm complex is flaring up. While the remains of 93L still retain the circulation as seen in the upper right area of the cloud mass. Sort of like looking into a bowl with a hand mixer going.
Back to TD 5.
Nearly every site that I have checked has a low level circulation just SSW of the Coast of Appalachicola,FL.
Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis has a broad low moving through the area toward the west. Coast-line hugger!
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It certainly looks like a LLC has reformed at around 29.1N; 86.1W in the last few frames of the Floater Vis loop. Still heading for a landfall near Mobile/Pensacola. Too close to land and still no convection right over that "center" for any intensification, though.
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Michael
PWS
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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93L is a rather complex development. It now looks to be two separate systems, one moving to the NE and one moving to the WNW, with ample separation between them.
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Michael
PWS
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Quote:
93L looks like a split. SW thunderstorm complex is flaring up. While the remains of 93L still retain the circulation as seen in the upper right area of the cloud mass. Sort of like looking into a bowl with a hand mixer going.
Back to TD 5.
Nearly every site that I have checked has a low level circulation just SSW of the Coast of Appalachicola,FL.
Storm Prediction Center mesoanalysis has a broad low moving through the area toward the west. Coast-line hugger!
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18
I agree!  check out this loop... 94L or a part off another vorticie is of the Florida PHN.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/satmaster.pl?Florida
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Aug 11 2010 04:20 PM)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc:
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I also believe there is a separate area of spin near 27 N, 84 W. Is it possible that the energy from 94L has spun off two separate areas or am I just seeing things?
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I saw that too, but it appears to me to be mid-level and not at the surface.
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Michael
PWS
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