DestinFisherman
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Loc: Destin, FL
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NHC just upped it to orange with a 30% chance of developing. we will most likely see that percentage go up throughout the remainder of the day.
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I haven't looked at the wind profiles from the radar sites yet. But what you guys are describing could be something like a tornado.
Upper circulation center in one location and lower circulation center in another location.
I see the Hot towers in the GOM south of Dauphin Island,AL and the visible sats indicate a circulation just north of Hugh. One other note is in the loops of XTD 5.
Have you noticed the loops are spinning clockwise... anticyclonic. Meaning high pressure overhead.
High over a low is a near perfect setup for convective development.
Now to see if I can locate the centers.....
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
I haven't looked at the wind profiles from the radar sites yet. But what you guys are describing could be something like a tornado.
Upper circulation center in one location and lower circulation center in another location.
I see the Hot towers in the GOM south of Dauphin Island,AL and the visible sats indicate a circulation just north of Hugh. One other note is in the loops of XTD 5.
Have you noticed the loops are spinning clockwise... anticyclonic. Meaning high pressure overhead.
High over a low is a near perfect setup for convective development.
Now to see if I can locate the centers.....
It's actually a bit NE of me, I think.
Is there any historical information of situations where this has happened before? A TD rolling back into the Gulf?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Surface analysis has the center of circulation in extreme SW Georgia... Or NE of you. 
Buoy 12 nm south of Orange Beach,AL is reporting a 2.2mb drop in pressure over the last 3 hours.
Other buoys are reporting less than 0.9mb over 3 hours.
15/1900z 42012 30.1N -87.6W Temperature 25.9 Dew Point 25.0 Wind from 170degrees at 25kts Gusting to 31kts Peak wind from 160degrees at 31kts Pressure 1013.4mb Pressure Tendancy -2.2mb SST 30.1 Wave height 1.5m Wave period 6seconds 42012
15/19 42012 30.1 -87.6 25.9 25.0 170 25 G 31 160 31 1013.4 -2.2 30.1 1.5 6 42012
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/findbuoy.cgi?id=42012
http://coolwx.com
edit:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
227 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE ONE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MODELS RUNS IS
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (REMNANTS OF TD5) IS NOW PROGGED TO
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH OUT OVER THE PANHANDLE WATERS BEFORE HEADING
WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS HAS LEAD TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS UPGRADED THIS TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED THE CENTER OF THE WEAK CIRCULATION OVER OUR AREA
AROUND THE SOUTHERN GA/AL STATE LINE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN GULF
WATERS.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TAE/AFDTAE
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 15 2010 07:45 PM)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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Between Marianna, Fl to Donalsonville, Ga..... appears to be moving in a ssw direction. President was in PCB the last 24hrs and now has left just in time! When it rains here, its pouring!
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_GULF/anim16vis.html
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 15 2010 08:28 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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It looks like there is a SMALL amount of convection building near the LLC now. In my judgement, the remnants of TD 5 are currently more organized than TD 5 was over the final 12 hours of its first lifetime.
The is in a bit of a box I think, in terms of when to re-initiate advisories.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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18Z data had
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1750 UTC SUN AUG 15 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE FIVE (AL052010) 20100815 1800 UTC
..........
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.3N LONCUR = 84.9W DIRCUR = 180DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 32.3N LONM12 = 85.1W DIRM12 = 157DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 33.0N LONM24 = 85.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
those interested... here's today HRD discussion from 2010 IFEX Field Program Director...
http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2010/08/15/forecast-and-mission-science-discussion-aug-15-2010/
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Sun Aug 15 2010 09:02 PM)
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DestinFisherman
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Loc: Destin, FL
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Buoy DPIA1 at Daulphin Island station reporting a SE wind of 34 kts gusting to 42kts.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=dpia1
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Well, over the last several hours, Five has continued to blow up in terms of convection... but... it doesn't appear to be all that organized. Most of the deep convection - all of it, in fact - is west of the AL/FL state line just about, stretching into Mississippi and Louisiana (over land), and south into the GOM. The apparent COC is due north of Panama City by my estimation. Given the displacement of the convection... I'm going to have to change my line of thinking, and say that it's going to take awhile to get organized enough to be a TD. Rotation is very evident, but I'm not sure it exists at the surface currently.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
Buoy DPIA1 at Daulphin Island station reporting a SE wind of 34 kts gusting to 42kts.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=dpia1
Well, so much for it being re-classified as TD Five, then, I guess... if it's already got winds of 34kts, it'll be directly named... if the deems it to be a tropical cyclone.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Your first thought is still good. A couple of hours ago Pensacola NAS had gusts to 35mph out of the south - associated with a thunderstorm. Dauphin Island is southwest (maybe west southwest) of the center so a southeast wind direction is something that was generated by the convection in the area. The movement of the system to the southwest has picked up a little, but at 8PM EDT it will still be over land. The 18Z BAM run really keeps the center close to the coast.
ED
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
Your first thought is still good. A couple of hours ago Pensacola NAS had gusts to 35mph out of the south - associated with a thunderstorm. Dauphin Island is southwest (maybe west southwest) of the center so a southeast wind direction is something that was generated by the convection in the area. The movement of the system to the southwest has picked up a little, but at 8PM EDT it will still be over land. The 18Z BAM run really keeps the center close to the coast.
ED
Is the fact that it's still going to be over land going to be an issue, though? It is looking more and more like a tropical storm, irregardless of the fact that the LLC is still over land.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm 65 miles inland and the NW Quadrant has been generating severe thunderstorms for the last hour here. Possibly a combination of convective forcing. But the speed at which they are moving tells me that there is a great deal of spin left in this system.
NHC is apparently suspicious also.
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, National Hurricane Center, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 15 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-076
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA GULF OF MEXICO - REMNENTS OF TD 05
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 29.5N 86.0W
E. 16/1700-2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT -- TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z- 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 17/0500Z
D. 29.5N 87.5W
E. 17/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
At least two of the RECON planes flew to Texas today.
Coincidence?
Edited by danielw (Sun Aug 15 2010 11:17 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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50% chance now, borderline code red.... should be code red at 2am... with all of the convection well west of the LLC, it's going to be interesting to see if the LLC redevelops near the convection. If so... bad news for Louisiana!
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I'm still looking at the mid and upper level data. Satellite imagery indicates there should be a center aloft near Mobile. Looking at the size of the anticyclone above the GOM just east of New Orleans. Center should be there somewhere. Radius of the circle... or in this case radius of the half-circle.
Surface data still points to a surface center near the AL/ GA/ FL border. Give or take a few miles.
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Quote:
I'm still looking at the mid and upper level data. Satellite imagery indicates there should be a center aloft near Mobile. Looking at the size of the anticyclone above the GOM just east of New Orleans. Center should be there somewhere. Radius of the circle... or in this case radius of the half-circle.
Surface data still points to a surface center near the AL/ GA/ FL border. Give or take a few miles.
Yeah, and there is NO organized convection near the AL/GA/FL border. All of the major convection - and it's major alright- is in Mississippi, moving rapidly west now. Some is still in the Gulf but most is over land now.
It's almost as if it has already made the turn, and left the low level circulation behind?
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
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If it has indeed left the old circulation behind and formed a center near the new convection wouldn't this make Texas and Louisiana at a worst spot in terms of the effects felt by 05L? Reason being, it would be centered more underneath the high which would do two things:
1.Make a more favorable environment for intensification
2.Push the disturbance farther west.
Edited by WesnWylie (Mon Aug 16 2010 12:57 AM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Quote:
If it has indeed left the old circulation behind and formed a center near Mobile, AL, wouldn't this make Texas and Louisiana at a worst spot in terms of the effects felt by 05L? Reason being, it would be centered more underneath the high which would do two things:
1.Make a more favorable environment for intensification
2.Push the disturbance farther west.
Since that's where most of the convection is, that makes sense, but I doubt that the LLC is going to reform, really.
Update: Radar now shows LLC may indeed be reforming... in the Gulf... but not near Mobile. A LLC appears to have formed or be forming, just southwest of the Red Bay radar, just off the coast of Panama City. No indication of deep convection in the location on satellitte, but the LLC appears to have formed there over the last hour so the satellite hasn't picked it up yet, maybe? Or it could be a tornado.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
Edited by Hugh (Mon Aug 16 2010 01:22 AM)
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The Red Bay/ Eglin FL radar is indicating the winds aloft are beginning to increase.
A little over one hour ago you would have to look to 10,000 ft to see plus 30 knot winds. They are now being indicated at 5,000 feet.
The Mx=40 in the bottom right hand corner is the current max wind during the scan in the Full Profile.40kts appears to be at 9,000 ft
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 16 2010 03:07 AM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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Good evening or a very early good morning! The remnants of TD5 are now re-emerging over the GOM near Applachacola (AQQ), FL. Surface and marine (buoy) observations reveal the system at 03Z just inland near AQQ. Movement is SSW at about 10 mph at this typing. There is a convective complex west of the center with very small vortices embedded. I cannot dismiss the possibility this may be a new center or 2nd center in the broader circulation.
Looking at 850 millibars this evening at 16/00Z; the vorticity center was located just to the north over Tallahassee (TAE), FL. I could find no vorticity or mid-level circulation at 500 millibars.. A pair of 595 decameter ridge height centers were located over AR/MS/LA and TN/NC/GA. The 500 millibar barotropic chart with temperature/depression plots revealed an upper level low - a 586 height center near 24.5N 92.0W however I could not find this low on water vaport satellite.
There is good outflow from all convective activity rotating anti-clock extending south, south-west and west. Wind Shear analysis reveals 20 knot isotachs from 60 NM offshore and 30 knot isotachs from 120 NM offshore. The depression is not progged to venture too offshore however I do believe the system will steer a bit further south than previously forecasted given the upper highs over the South Central and SE USA but not very much more than progged.
Looking at VAD winds out of Mobile, AL reveal Northwest winds at 1000' veering to 010 degrees at 15 knots at 2000', 040 at 20 knots at 3000' and 040 at 30 knots at 4000'.
Winds at Eglin AFB, FL reveal winds of 360 at 10 knots at 1000', 020 at 15 knots at 2000', 030 at 15 knots at 3000' and 030 at 20 knots at 4000' - verifying the center and circulation aloft is east of both locations at this typing.
Turning to the global models tonight the continues to forecast the system as a possible tropical storm upon landfall in SE LA and S LA; the other models; at minimum a depression. The models have done a very, very good job at handling the remains of TD5 though there has been some convective feedback with the and has this system too strong. General consensus is believe re-development into a "real" TD is plausible and now has projected redevelopment at 50 percent.
Y'all have a wonderful evening/morning...take care all; it's going to be a really interesting Monday!!!
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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