Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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here's an overlay of todays flights into/above EARL 
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
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Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Looks to be just about a due west movement after smoothing over all the wobbles. Looks to be landfall in the northern islands very possibly Puerto Rico based upon the radar loops.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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Posts: 576
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Watching the Antille's radar closely....
The last ~1.5 hours of looping shows an eye that has contracted... Also, less polarward motion however temporary that may be.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Earl's southern Eyewall is over Anguilla, St. Maarten is not very far away either. Power was lost in St. Maarten around 8:23 AM this morning.
Best place on Radar to look at now is on San Juan Radar.
Check Storm Carib for Updates from the islands
St. Maarten Info from Storm Carib -- Reports of roofs gone, trees down, power out.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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I moved the focus of the radar recording to Puerto Rico.
Radar Recording of Puerto Rico and French Antilles Radar
Now the Virgin Islands will want to watch for the wobbles to see if they get the southern eyewall or it slips to the north. At the very least the southern side is usually the weaker side of the system.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 7AM EDT St. Maarten reported a gust to 61mph - but loss of power since then when the jog to the west put the island in the southern portion of the eyewall. Earl should pass to the north of St. John and St. Thomas later this afternoon.
Current Weather Conditions at St. Thomas
ED
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Loc: parrish,fl
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The San Juan radar posted here definitely conforms a due west heading, and that is more than a jog based on how long that has been occuring.
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doug
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Due west is Not a good heading right now. That places nearly all of the islands just outside the eye or eyewall. Even those outside the eyewall area will be subject to upsloping winds and torrential rains in mountainous areas.
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 30 2010 01:51 PM)
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Jasonch
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Texas
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I agree there is more of a due west heading than north of west.
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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru
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Loc: Loxahatchee, FL
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after my review of the NWS long range of puerto rico / virgin islands, i dont see a jog to the west. granted, i am only seeing about 45 min of loops, but i can see a very clear wnw movement of the coc. i may be wrong. either case, it would have to be a pretty consistent movement to the west in order for the 11am from the to reflect it.
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Please remember. directions of movement are averaged over a 6 hour period.
A quick turn in any direction will not show up for several hours. e.g. Hurricane 2004
Use your eyes first and Advisories second in a case of whether the storm has jogged a bit off course... especially if you are in the path of the storm.
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Yes it is still west northwest in general (using visible satellite and radar, knowing the angle). It's looking likely the core eyewall will miss the Virgin islands, but it will be borderline close. Still south of the forecasted position though.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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A jog is only as reliable as the timeframe that someone has seen it in. From about 7AM to 9:30AM, Earl was moving due west. Since then he has moved west northwest. The general average motion since 28/12Z has been to the west northwest, but if you live on one of the islands where a short jog to the west has taken out your power and caused considerable damage...
ED
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Beaumont, TX
Storm Tracker
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11 am discussion said the track guidance has shifted westward again. Winds are up to 120 mph.
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 30 2010 04:46 PM)
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Okay, W or WNW.. its 285 degree Average.. .There are some wobbles 300dg there are some 270dg. It's
been generally moving north of due west @ 285. A more WNW motion will happen probably later tonight
with a bending NW on Tuesday. Eyewall contractions will now be in play with Earl as he becomes a solid
Cat 3 with winds approaching Cat 4 tonight.
97L is pretty much a TD.. its lacking consolidated T-Storms near the center..but has enough
and a well defined circulation that it should of been upgraded. Movement is a rapid 24mph.
Curious to see where this goes in the next 48hrs. Should reach the islands then..
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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The trough to the northwest of Earl is still digging southward. So Earl should maintain his current heading, so to speak. Not far enough off of the coastline though.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+6
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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I've been curious about that for several days now. Could we see Earl traverse the length of The Bahamas before it makes that turn (heading toward South Carolina), or will it get kicked rather sharply to the NE? Timing is everything right now.
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Michael
PWS
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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that upper level low will not quit and i think it's feeding earl
whatever is feeding earl he has intensified dramatically and areas far from the center will receive more weather now
great loop to watch... shows so much... hoping this is movement and not a wobble
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It still looks like 285º on current long range radar loop from San Juan. Now has a great radar presentation. We'll see if the forecast shifts even more westward at 5 PM.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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For comparison purposes. Two hours and 53 minutes apart.
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