shewtinstars
Registered User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2
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I am in Jacksonville, Florida and this hurricane sure has my attention.
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syfr
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Sun
Posts: 19
Loc: Central NC
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As someone who planned to be in the outer banks on Saturday, I'm keeping a close eye. <br /><br />Really looks like the most recent tracks show a NNW direction ...a rather marked change from the western heading earlier today.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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The position is on or just a little on the north side of the forecasted track now, It's heading more to northwest than west northwest now. (Again, you need to compare satellite--especially visible--vs radar angle for an accurate position, not radar alone). If the trend continues the forecast track probably will shift right or stay the same at 5PM.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looking at the last couple of frames on the Vis loop, it looks like it has resumed a more WNWesterly direction after a NW wobble to me.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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San Juan, PR Morning AFD excerpt could explain the reason for the track anomalies.<br /><br />.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010/<br /><br />SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE EARL LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD<br />ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST<br />AREA. THEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL<br />ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE NORTHEAST<br />CARIBBEAN...AND CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE<br />SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH<br />SATURDAY.<br /><br />http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDSJU&max=61<br /><br />PUERTO RICO/U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HOURLY WEATHER ROUNDUP<br />NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR<br />200 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010<br /><br />PRZ001-004-301900-<br />PUERTO RICO<br /> <br />CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS<br />SAN JUAN LMM LGT RAIN 81 77 89 NW20G33 29.64F FOG <br />AGUADILLA PTSUNNY 86 79 79 N20G30 29.78F HX 99 <br />$$<br /><br />PRZ006-007-301900-<br />U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS<br /> <br />CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS<br />CHARLOTTE AMA LGT RAIN 82 75 78 NW33G59 29.41F
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK<br />NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL<br />200 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010<br /><br />FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... (edited~danielw)<br /><br />SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM<br />LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED<br />LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. <br /><br />HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA<br />FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR<br />ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA... SUGGEST THAT<br />THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A<br />SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER. <br /><br />ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN<br />ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT<br />IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM... <br />AND ADVISORIES COULD BE<br />INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH<br />CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE<br />DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20<br />MPH.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Is it me, or has Earl slowed down (forward motion) this afternoon? Also, the convection in 97L has, again been suppressed in the latest vis pics.
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Michael
PWS
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 828
Loc: Valladolid,Mx
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Earl will need to make the turn real soon,or that projected track will have to change.After a brief wobble more towards the NW,it now is back on a more WNW course.
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Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION<br />NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD<br />233 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010<br /> <br />VALID AUG 30/1200 UTC THRU SEP 03/0000 UTC<br /> <br />...HURRICANE EARL...<br /><br />PREFERENCE: National Hurricane Center FORECAST <br /><br />ON WED THROUGH THURS... THE 12Z AND ARE BOTH TRENDING<br />SLOWER WITH EARL. THE IS SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTH AND WEST<br />DISPLACEMENT WITH THE TRACK... WHILE THE IS VERY CONSISTENT ON<br />THE FCST TRACK. THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH<br />THIS FEATURE... ESPECIALLY THE FORWARD PROGRESSION. HPC HIGHLY<br />RECOMMENDS FOLLOWING THE LATEST FCST GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL<br />HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING EARL.<br /><br />http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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We now have TD 8 according to FNMOC. Possibly may be classified as a TS at time of issuance of advisories from , but certainly not what those in the northern Leewards will want to see.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1370
Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
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GV data from flight earlier today found some TS force winds at surface... but is waiting on a good set of convection... which is the right thing to do. Want take much to get a storm, but i don't see anything that would suggest an upgrade at this moment.<br /><br />PS: the DC-8 from NASA flew over the EYE.... Can't wait to see the pics!
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www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Aug 30 2010 04:26 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that Danny was talking about Earl, not Invest 97L, but in any case, if Fleet Numerical is calling the system 08L (and they are) its probably because has told them that is about to upgrade the system to Tropical Depression status at 5PM EDT - but we'll find out shortly.<br />ED
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC has upped 97L to Tropical Storm Fiona<br />14.4N/ 48.7W wind 40 mph moving W at 24mph 1007 mb
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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And Earl is now category 4. On the other side, Danielle was downgraded to a Tropical Storm.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22<br />NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010<br />500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010 (edited~danielw)<br /> <br />THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND<br />108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC. THIS WAS THE<br />BASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY. SINCE THAT TIME...THE<br />PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST<br />DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT<br />DEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY<br />CLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE<br />INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE <br />SCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON<br />THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.<br /><br />THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT AVERAGE TRACK<br />FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THIS<br />UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.<br />EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.<br /><br />948mb That's not good. 1000-948mb = max possible windspeed of 127 mph. <br />Earl is still Above the pressure-wind relationship curve at 135 mph.<br /><br />TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 1<br />NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010<br />500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010<br /> <br />...TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...<br /> <br /> <br />SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION<br />----------------------------------------------<br />LOCATION...14.4N 48.7W<br />ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS<br />MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR<br />PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/HR<br />MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES<br /> <br /> <br />WATCHES AND WARNINGS<br />--------------------<br />NONE.<br /><br />INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE<br />PROGRESS OF FIONA. <br />A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.<br /><br />
Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 30 2010 05:32 PM)
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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With the uncertainty of the intensity forecasts, I would not be surprised if Earl reaches Cat5 intensity within the next 24 hours. Tomorrow will likely tell if the forecast NWesterly track verifies and just how far West that begins to occur.
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Michael
PWS
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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New thread, Earl and Fiona, is up. Please post there.
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