F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Chill falls over the Atlantic as the official season heads towards close
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 211 (Idalia) , Major: 211 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 211 (Idalia) Major: 211 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2010 News Talkbacks

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Paula RECON [Re: Bloodstar]
      #89869 - Tue Oct 12 2010 01:31 PM

Latest vis pics indicate an eye feature. Paula is a very small storm and looks to be moving due North now. Waiting for the 1400 EDT intermediate advisory.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 462
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Paula RECON [Re: cieldumort]
      #89870 - Tue Oct 12 2010 01:35 PM

I suspect they'd hold back from making it a category 2 right now. at least until they got more data showing winds of that level. (in case it was a meso scale event in the eyewall and not representative of the entire storm) Add in the ragged eyewall appearance and they may justify keeping it at high end cat 1 for the 2pm advisory.

EDIT: Well never mind. 100MPH winds and 981 pressure.

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020
Brookhaven National Laboratory
U. Arizona PhD Student

Edited by Bloodstar (Tue Oct 12 2010 01:42 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MichaelA
Weather Analyst


Reged: Thu
Posts: 944
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
Re: Paula RECON [Re: Bloodstar]
      #89871 - Tue Oct 12 2010 01:44 PM

Yep. After being overly conservative on the formation of Paula, I guess they've decided to go with the flow, now.

--------------------
Michael

PWS


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Paula RECON [Re: MichaelA]
      #89872 - Tue Oct 12 2010 02:31 PM

We're now recording Cancun radar for the long term Paula approach

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?95

For comparison, you can see 2005 Wilma's Cancun radar recording at

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mike V
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Paula RECON [Re: MikeC]
      #89874 - Tue Oct 12 2010 03:16 PM

For you gurus out here, with Paula being stronger and all the discussion and flip flop of the models, is it reasonable to assume that South Fla could now be in its sights?

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma, Ian flood adventure.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Paula RECON [Re: Mike V]
      #89875 - Tue Oct 12 2010 03:27 PM

Quote:

For you gurus out here, with Paula being stronger and all the discussion and flip flop of the models, is it reasonable to assume that South Fla could now be in its sights?




There's some discussion of this in the forecast lounge, but in general it's still not likely to affect S. Florida much, or if it did reach it would be on the weak side due to shear and fast moving, so likely not too much of a flood threat.

You can see the shear in the Gulf on the system now with the Water vapor loop. This would force it to the east quickly and tear up the system.

The system is in the cone, and some of the GFS suite and NOGAPS models have it approaching S. Florida, but the majority of everything else keeps it far to the south. It's a small system and uncertainty is high, that fact alone makes it worth watching closely.

But in general, for south Florida, since it is in the "cone" it is worth watching, but right now it still isn't very likely to do much.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Paula RECON [Re: Mike V]
      #89876 - Tue Oct 12 2010 03:29 PM

Post deleted by author after reading Mike's analysis

--------------------
doug

Edited by doug (Tue Oct 12 2010 03:31 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Weather Mania
Registered User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 1
Re: Paula RECON [Re: doug]
      #89877 - Tue Oct 12 2010 03:54 PM

Wow, you guys are all so knowledgeable, I love to track storms but good googly moogly, you guys are good!

Didn't mean to be off topic, I was just very impressed!

--------------------
Weather Mania


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Mike V
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sun
Posts: 35
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Paula RECON [Re: doug]
      #89878 - Tue Oct 12 2010 04:01 PM

Mike_C
Thanks for the reply. I scour your forums here regularly during the season, hence my question. I'm not much of a weather guru, what I know I got from Flight training many years ago. I can read a map and have an idea of what is going on, but that is about it.

Mike V

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma, Ian flood adventure.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Paula RECON [Re: Mike V]
      #89879 - Tue Oct 12 2010 04:58 PM

The 5PM forecast track takes it into western Cuba, and hurricane warnings are up for there. It then shoots off to the east, which is likely. Chances for a Florida impact are even lower than before.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 110
Loc: Leesburg, FL
Re: Paula RECON [Re: MikeC]
      #89880 - Tue Oct 12 2010 05:32 PM

Looking at the upper level winds and the shear in the Gulf...all should be well for Florida. The Gulf is basically shut off from any systems at the present time. Hopefully, this will end the 2010 season!!!

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Paula RECON [Re: k___g]
      #89884 - Wed Oct 13 2010 10:03 AM

Hard to believe Paula has survived the night with its core circulation still quite intact. Morning satellite today does not yet offer evidence of shear having taken its toll - yet. Such however should start occuring really quite soon. Best chance for Paula to maintain a fair amount of its current structure ( and strength ) would be for it to soon make that move to the northeast. If the storm can maintain its deep convection and the faster its forward motion is, then the longer Paula will perhaps be able to hang on to any semblance of a minimal hurricane or tropical storm. This mornings models have all shifted northward and will be interesting to see where Paula is at 1800Z today, as compared to the next forecast point of 21.5N and 85.8W ( at approx. 1:00pm this afternoon ). Finally, it is interesting to note that looking at the current water vapor loop of Florida and the Caribbean, the mid level ridging over East/Central Caribbean appears to be expanding westward ( and possibly slightly northward ), basically filling in Paola's wake.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Paula RECON [Re: weathernet]
      #89886 - Wed Oct 13 2010 11:10 AM

Quick update here, late Wed. a.m. Somehow Paula maintaining itself; perhaps even expanding slightly. Recent a.m. soundings at Cancun at 200-300mb showing under 20 knots wind. Storm is slowing down some, perhaps starting its NE turn

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys [Re: weathernet]
      #89887 - Wed Oct 13 2010 11:57 AM

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS REPLACED IT WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM CANCUN TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CANCUN TO SAN FELIPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...-
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS


A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 13 2010 11:58 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys [Re: danielw]
      #89889 - Wed Oct 13 2010 12:20 PM

CAUTION:
NRL tropical cyclone products are not updating as off 12:18 EDT today.
The buttons indicate they are updated. But the images, that I checked, are from yesterday.

Edited by danielw (Wed Oct 13 2010 12:21 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys [Re: danielw]
      #89891 - Wed Oct 13 2010 03:56 PM

Paula is being ravaged by shear, and it looks like the end is beginning

--------------------
doug


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Beach
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys [Re: doug]
      #89893 - Thu Oct 14 2010 08:10 AM

Probably so... but looking at the WV this morning, it looks like the center is North of the track. Paula is still moving NE and not ENE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
The Keys may get more rain than originally expected.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Florida Keys [Re: Beach]
      #89894 - Thu Oct 14 2010 01:37 PM

Quote:

Probably so... but looking at the WV this morning, it looks like the center is North of the track. Paula is still moving NE and not ENE.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
The Keys may get more rain than originally expected.





This observation is both correct and incorrect, depending on perspective.

Much of the bad weather associated with Paula is indeed still heading NE, rather than ENE. This is due to the very strong southwesterly upper-level winds blowing deep convection away from the tropical cyclone, and up to the northeast. In addition, a remnant boundary cuts across south of Florida, serving to enhance lift, and giving even more of an appearance that "Paula" is northeast of where she has been forecast to be at this time.

Despite all this this, the center of Paula's actual low level circulation has been starting to turn ENE, as advertised. In fact, there are even a few hints that the center of Paula may already be starting to feel the first of possibly many pushes to the east, which may ultimately end up being pushes to the ESE, SE and even S.

You can make out Paula's low level center much better using Visible satellite images. Water vapor images are actually often a poor choice when attempting to determine where a surface cyclone's center is.

This link can take you to a very good Visible loop of Paula (time-sensitive).

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Paula.... Gone! [Re: cieldumort]
      #89900 - Fri Oct 15 2010 10:37 AM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

SATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE
THAT PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL
DEFINED AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED. THE REMNANT
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN
ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAULA.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: Small Paula Likely to stay south of Florida [Re: MikeC]
      #89912 - Mon Oct 18 2010 10:17 PM

For disscusion of 99L heating up in the western Carib follow links to forum page.
Hurric


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1 | 2 | (show all)



Extra information
0 registered and 7 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 28906

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center