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MikeCAdministrator
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Tropical Storm Bret Losing Strength,Moving Away from US
      #90579 - Sat Jul 16 2011 05:45 PM

7:00 AM EDT Update 19 July 2011
Bret has been losing strength since mid last night, working in dry air from the north, keeping the system from developing much new convection.

The forecasted motion to the northeast is continuing, and now with no watches/warnings advisories will come every 6 hours. At 5 AM, 11AM, 5PM and 11PM. On the forecast track it moves between the Carolinas and Bermuda, being no real factor for either.

The opportunity for Bret to become a hurricane has passed as well,

Outside of Bret, low chance areas include the area east of the Caribbean (Not Likely to develop), a wave in the Central Atlantic around 35 west (one to watch late this week), and another area northeast of Puerto Rico (Not likely to develop).

6:30 AM EDT Update 18 July 2011
Tropical Storm Bret is still generally moving slowly, currently toward the east at 3mph, it is forecast to meander a bit more and eventually head north to north northeast and then curve out to sea.

Overnight it has gained a bit of strength and has conditions favorable enough that it may form into the year's first hurricane later tonight or tomorrow. There is a fairly good model consensus on the system staying out to sea, Even though odds are highly against it making landfall (or even getting close) to the Carolinas, but it may be a good idea to check back over the next two days to see if the trends out to sea continue.

Dry air will likely begin to affect Bret later in the week which will likely keep it from strengthening too much. After 3 days or so conditions get hostile for the system.



Outside of Bret, there doesn't seem to be much going on. The only long shot place to look for systems later this week may be east of the Caribbean. Outside of Bret and that there really is not much going on in the Atlantic Tropics.

8:00 PM EDT Update 17 July 2011
Tropical Depression Two has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Bret.

6:00 PM EDT Update 17 July 2011
A new recon report supports Tropical Storm force winds, it is likely that Tropical Storm Bret will form with the next advisory (around 8PM).

4:45 PM EDT Update 17 July 2011
98L has strengthened to Tropical Depression two. The official forecast keeps it offshore of Florida, and based on what has occurred today there is very little reason to disagree with in the NHC's track. It is still worth monitoring over the next few days.

2 PM EDT Update 17 July 2011
At 2PM the National Hurricane Center upgraded chances of 98L to 40% for development within the next 48 hours, and recon aircraft currently is near the west coast of Florida and heading toward the system.

The system is looking impressive on visible satellite, but not so much on the infrared as it is losing some convection there. Dry air is approaching the central Florida area, and may help keep the system weak This may keep it holding the rest of the day. More should be known when recon reaches the area.

8 AM EDT Update 17 July 2011
The wave east of Florida has organized overnight and chances are indicated to be 30% development over the next two days. Recon is scheduled to investigate the area today, and because of close proximity to land, it is expected that it will fly.

The system currently is drifting southward toward the Bahamas. Global models are having a hard time picking up on jt because of the relatively small size of the system. It is expected to continue to move very slowly for at least the next 48 hours before the ridge has a chance to begin to affect it. There is a window for the system to move westward at that time, if the ridge misses it, and if so conditions in the upper levels could be slightly unfavorable for the system. That said, the proximity to land leaves little room for error, so it must be watched closely over the several days. Another scenario, is that it does get picked up it could draw it further northward toward the Carolinas, but still stay offshore. The scenario In between is that it would drift over the coast of Florida briefly before heading northeastward.



These small systems can change in strength rapidly, and with apparent hot towers forming in the low, and a good overall low level flow, the stage is set for something to pop up relatively quickly.

Although the prevailing though is that it will eventually move to the northeast and out to sea, it still has a lack of general steering currents around it, and needs to be watched, especially in the Bahamas, but by Florida as well over the next few days.

If the current trend persists through the day, it is possible for development to occur sooner than anticipated. The recon flight out today should help with this.

Bottom line, even though it is likely not to affect Florida directly, and despite the generally not favorable environment, small systems like these can change quickly, and the margin of error is low, so it is a good idea to keep updated on it.

Beyond, 98L a wave in the far eastern Caribbean, near the islands, seems to be organizing as well.

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -


Bret Event Related Links


float2latest.gif stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=2 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Bret
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bret


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bret (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bret (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bret

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bret
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bret -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



99L Event Related Links


float3latest.gif stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2011&storm=3 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 99L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 99L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 99L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 99L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 99L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 99L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 99L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


Original Update
An area of disturbed weather off the east central Florida coastline (98L) is being watched this afternoon, it is from the cut off Frontal area mentioned last week.

Conditions could be more favorable for development into next week. Those along the east Florida coastline and the Bahamas will want to watch this for much needed rainfall. From the current pattern, however, it will meander for several days but most likely stay out to sea.

The current drift is slight toward the south southeast, but there isn't much to steer it, leaving it hanging around probably through most of the upcoming week. The proximity to the east coast of Florida will make it worth watching over the next week, but the probability of anything happening with the system is currently low.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90580 - Sat Jul 16 2011 09:57 PM

If the system off Florida (98L) persists like it has so far tonight into tomorrow the chances for development will likely go up tomorrow. There is a recon flight scheduled for tomorrow out there.

This was from the system that was talked about last week moving off the Carolinas, it looked like the chances fell apart, but a small area persisted through the days and now is manifesting itself off Cape Canaveral.

These systems that pop up close to land are called "home brew" style systems, and can come up relatively quickly and surprise folks. This morning the system wasn't even really worth mentioning, but it changed by the afternoon.

The models are still a bit to scattered and early to use them for much of anything.


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Edski
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90582 - Sun Jul 17 2011 08:22 AM

NHC says 30% chance now. Looking at the model plots, all 3 BAM's seem to want to truck this down the I-4 corridor. While we certainly could use the rain, and I would not expect this to get too serious if it did go that way.
Looking at the most recent IR loop, I might be imaging things, but it looks like the recent blow up of clouds/precip just off the FLA east coast is accompanied by a nearly symmetric region of downlift across central and west FLA. Right now here in the Tampa area it's a really nice morning...

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jul 17 2011 05:55 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: Edski]
      #90583 - Sun Jul 17 2011 09:15 AM

Right now the system is moving in a Southerly direction and that throws almost all of the models out. At least the 00Z models from last night.
The following comment is Forecast Lounge material. I place it here to tie into Edski's post. Mike and Ed feel free to move it.

The current models seem to have split. Motions are west, north and east.
BAMD is probably picking up on the upper ridge currently over the Midwest moving into the SE US in a few days. Deflecting 98L to the west. GFDL wants to skirt the ridge, against the flow, and head for the NC Coast. LBAR is off to the NW, toward Jacksonville, and HWRF is a fish spinner.

If the system were to move west it's chances of intensifying in the short term, would/ should be less than in the other directions.
Based on an overland track! A few systems in the past have intensified over Southern Florida

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 17 2011 09:19 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: Edski]
      #90585 - Sun Jul 17 2011 09:27 AM

I put some further thoughts in the forecast lounge, since it's more speculation than anything.

The models aren't handling it very well, and probably won't until the recon data gets in there and the system develops more. The models may be a bit more interesting tomorrow after the (0Z) night run.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: danielw]
      #90586 - Sun Jul 17 2011 09:28 AM

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. (edited~danielw)

...THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES OFF THE
MID-ATLC COAST THAT BEGINS TO BUILD SW ACROSS N FLORIDA AND INTO
THE NE GULF THROUGH...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WEAKENING
AS A TROUGH E OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DRIFTS WESTWARD...

...AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LOSE
ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT PUSHES BACK TO THE N.
THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH THU. THE LOW IS FORECAST
BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MOVE S THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN
TO TRACK MORE TO THE W AND NW MON AND MON NIGHT AND TURN NE TUE
BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. THE
HURRICANE BAM MODELS TAKE THE LOW MORE TO THE SW AND W TOWARDS
CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. WILL FORECAST LOW TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO
TUE...THEN CARRY A TROUGH FEATURE EXTENDING TO PART OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER TUE INTO WED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS FEATURE
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STAY
TUNED FOR ANY POSSIBLE NEW INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...

Marine Weather Discussion from NHC


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vineyardsaker
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90587 - Sun Jul 17 2011 09:29 AM

Quote:

These systems that pop up close to land are called "home brew" style systems, and can come up relatively quickly and surprise folks. This morning the system wasn't even really worth mentioning, but it changed by the afternoon.




Yes, I remember a couple of years ago we had one of these small "irrelevant" systems right off our coastline which turned info a tropical storm (or was it a Cat1?) literally overnight and everybody was baffled as to where the hell it had come from.

So far, and even though 98L is right off our coast, we don't feel much here, in New Smyrna Beach. West Palm Beach seems to be even closer to the system than we are.

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole

Edited by vineyardsaker (Sun Jul 17 2011 09:33 AM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #90588 - Sun Jul 17 2011 09:34 AM

Quote:

Quote:

These systems that pop up close to land are called "home brew" style systems, and can come up relatively quickly and surprise folks. This morning the system wasn't even really worth mentioning, but it changed by the afternoon.




Yes, I remember a couple of years ago we had one of these small "irrelevant" systems which turned info a tropical storm (or was it a Cat1?) literally overnight and everybody was baffled as to where the hell it had come from.

So far, and even though 98L is right off our coast, we don't feel much here, in New Smyrna Beach. West Palm Beach seems to be even closer to the system than we are.




That was likely Humberto from 2007, it spun up from a disturbance to category one in nearly record time. Conditions aren't set up for something like that with the system off Florida, (Too much northwesterly shear), but it can be possible given the right conditions.


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danielwAdministrator
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Wave approaching Grenada [Re: MikeC]
      #90589 - Sun Jul 17 2011 09:58 AM

Not to take anyone away from 98L as it's very close to home.

Two separate weather stations in the far SE Caribbean are reporting sustained tropical storm force winds for the last hours.
Station located at Fort Wells, Grenada has reported winds above 34 mph for the last 61 minutes with peak wind gust to 64 mph.
These measurements are associated with a tropical wave moving into the Grenada area at this time.


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typhoon_tip
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90590 - Sun Jul 17 2011 11:32 AM

Low-level cumulus streets are curving inward in cyclonic fashion over the eastern Penn of Florida.

U/A wind overlays show a bit of shear in the area, but with heights generally forecast to rise synoptically N of the region therein is a natural tendency for reducing shear in time, particularly if the system moves SW with the environmental flow.

Looks like a nice frontalysis "bookend" wave scenario on satellite.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sun Jul 17 2011 01:26 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #90591 - Sun Jul 17 2011 01:59 PM

At 2PM the National Hurricane Center upgraded chances of 98L to 40% for development within the next 48 hours, and recon aircraft currently is near the west coast of Florida and heading toward the system.

The system is looking impressive on visible satellite, but not so much on the infrared as it is losing some convection there. Dry air is approaching the central Florida area, and may help keep the system weak This may keep it holding the rest of the day. More should be known when recon reaches the area.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90592 - Sun Jul 17 2011 02:37 PM

RECON has just passed over ED's house and is on the initial Inbound leg.
Highest winds so far are in the 15 mph range. Estimating 30 minutes to their Center Fix.

Update: 2:41PM EDT
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 80° at 30 knots (From the E at ~ 34.5 mph)
Remarks Section...
Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 31 knots (~ 35.7mph)

data courtesy of tropicalatlantic.com

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 17 2011 02:51 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: danielw]
      #90593 - Sun Jul 17 2011 02:54 PM

Recon's not hit the "center" of the system yet, but some banding features are starting to show up on the Melbourne long range radar.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90594 - Sun Jul 17 2011 03:08 PM

That's consistent with the recon data:
Location: 142 miles (229 km) to the E (90°) from Melbourne, FL, USA. This was near the first wind shift. But it's on the western edge of the main cloud pattern. Multiple vortice system??
Wind switched from NE to E to SE in less than 17 miles. Wind speeds from the SE direction are consistent with a NE Quadrant measurement. I.e. greater speeds.

Recon has turned north. So they are still looking for the Center. At the turn:
Optional Data...
Estimated Surface Wind: From 120° at 30 knots (From the ESE at ~ 34.5 mph)
Remarks Section...
Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 29 knots (~ 33.4mph)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: danielw]
      #90595 - Sun Jul 17 2011 03:17 PM

There are signs already from radar and recon sfmr that it may be upgraded to a depression shortly. It will be borderline for the NHC to call, and generally this close to land, they will call for an upgrade. More will be know probably with a second recon pass coming up.

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WeatherNut
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90596 - Sun Jul 17 2011 03:50 PM

Looks like we have a center at 27 35'/ 78 15' also 2 readings of 46 and 49 mph winds on the north side. Pressure here is 1010mb which is the lowest I've seen so far...definite wind shift in this area

--------------------
Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: WeatherNut]
      #90597 - Sun Jul 17 2011 03:54 PM

It's looking very likely that TD#2 (perhaps Bret) will form at 5 from those readings. Recon found westerly winds around 30- to 35 knots. So virtually no question that is at least a depression, and the NHC may call it a Tropical Storm based on the 40s the plane found.

The good news is that is looking more likely to stay away from the mainland then it did this morning.



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: WeatherNut]
      #90598 - Sun Jul 17 2011 04:13 PM

The upgrade is coming, NHC Will begin advisories on the system shortly.

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LoisCane
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Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90599 - Sun Jul 17 2011 04:15 PM

Hey they rarely send in planes with 40% chances ... although it is close to land. Once we get some good data from recon we can get a better picture of where it might go IF it forms.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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vineyardsaker
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Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline [Re: MikeC]
      #90600 - Sun Jul 17 2011 04:19 PM

Quote:

That was likely Humberto from 2007, it spun up from a disturbance to category one in nearly record time.




Yes, I think that this was the one, and it was in September. Thanks for the pointer

--------------------
Charley(eyewall), Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Wilma, Irma, Ian (eyewall), Nicole


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