LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Thats what I had been thinking, but hadn't heard much discussion on it. Granted its a high priority there and if ..and I do mean IF the western wave develops it would change the time frame a lot
There have been systems in the past where the energy from one handed off to the other and the stronger survived, aside from the fuji scenario.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST SUN JUL 31 2011
edited~danielw
...AS FAR AS THE TROPICS GO...A WIND SURGE HAS DETACHED A PORTION OF
WHAT ONCE THOUGHT TO BE PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. NOW THE
TROPICAL WAVE BEING OBSERVED FOR DEVELOPMENT IS BEHIND THIS SURGE.
HOWEVER...THIS SURGE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO HAVE DEEPER
CONVECTION THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.
BUOY 41040 HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 MPH ...GUSTS
AROUND 34 MPH AND SEAS CLOSE TO 12 FT. THIS DATA WAS RECORDED AS
THE DETACHED PORTION OF THE WAVE WENT THROUGH THE BUOY.
ALSO...BUOY 41101 EAST OF MARTINIQUE HAS REPORTED SIMILAR VALUES
WITH A MAX SUSTAINED WIND OF 26 MPH AND GUST OF 30 MPH WITH SEAS
OF AROUND 10 FT.
THE ACTUAL SYSTEM THAT COULD BE CATEGORIZED AS A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH ITS ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...IT WILL BE OVER MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER STATED THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANY TIME
NOW. WE WILL KNOW MORE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
VERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA...MAYBE SLIGHTLY NORTH ON THE 12Z RUN THAN
THE 06Z RUN. THE 12Z RUN HOWEVER HAS SEVERAL MODELS TRACKING THE
CYCLONE JUST OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND PONCE AND EXITING THROUGH AGUADILLA...WITH
AN INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A WEAKER HURRICANE.
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 31 2011 06:52 PM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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The Eastern most wave has the better circulation, pretty clear on imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
I'm also wondering if the front, lead wave somehow helps the wave to the east in that it is no longer dealing with dry air out ahead of it..
Just a thought, more a question
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
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With these Twins it looks like anything is possible.
Recon is still inbound to the eastern circulation 91L. NOAA has an aircraft doing dropsonde measurements, and another USAF Hurricane Hunter is doing dropsondes east of Florida. The AF plane appears to be headed toward St Croix. Non-tasked mission.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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dropsondes east of Florida...well that says a lot
i can see almost anything happening
one can overpower the other rather than a fuji effect but that western wave is really close to the islands
eastern one looks good, except low in convection which was the problem the whole time
when was the last scenario like this, i remember one several years back
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Recon reports on Google Earth appear to have stopped... at least, for me they have. Either that, or the aircraft is stalled.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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They were having problems earlier as well.
Trying to figure out if this is accurate and would imagine it is but it seems they are putting everything on hold.
I'm more confused than I have ever been and rarely confused .... very complicated situation
http://www.barbadosweather.org/RGwarningstbpb.php
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Quote:
Recon reports on Google Earth appear to have stopped... at least, for me they have. Either that, or the aircraft is stalled.
Forgive me. I find it somewhat strange that transmissions from the aircraft ceased just prior to passing thru west system and now the east system too.
They have far too much equipment on the aircraft to lose radio/ data contact. Twice.
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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okay so.... what do you think is the matter... however if they had a problem transmitting it would affect them anywhere, no?
what was the last info sent?
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I don't understand the problem. Unless it's electrical... moisture shorting out the transmitter when it gets wet in clouds and rain. But that would only explain one radio. Not the whole aircraft.
All of the other flying aircraft data, NOAA and USAF is getting to . AF304 data for 91L is not.
I have an idea, but I'll refrain from posting. 
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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re: your idea....hope it's something quirky like sunspots
really wanting more info and should be some info coming out....
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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The area that the recon is flying through (the actual 91L) looks like it's completely fallen apart over the last few hours. The area to the west that the recon DIDN'T go into... looks like the dominant area now (but it doesn't look very impressive either). I think it's a bust for now.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Looking at the satellite imagery I personally dont see that 91L has / is falling apart. In fact, it looks like new convection is developing and the disturbance seems to be consolidating, with banding features evident. It will probably take a bit longer than originally anticipated to develop as it needs to seperate a bit more from the wave to its west. Either way, with the model support and the environmental conditions we are still likely to see this become TD5 and then probably Emily.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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renka
Registered User
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Awesome information is posted in this forum. I saw the images that were showing how large the wave is. I am a newby to this forum and was wondering if there was a post that shows how many miles (nautical) (road) that this area covered. It looked huge.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
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The longer these disparate vorticity maxims interfere with the others ability to become dominant the farther west this entire region will move along with the environmental flow. When/if a TC becomes better organized its vertical structure will then as a whole be more prone to moving along with the steering level wind field, which is probably why many of the models move this through the northern Leewards. There is already a slight north bias of the models recent runs and it may be because they are keying in on the vortex closer to 52w/14n, and by supposition are missing the limiting interaction with the vortex near 58w/13n. Already we begin to question the robustness of the and HWRF 12Z runs, at least in the early time intervals. It seems they are always on a fast bias with the spin up momentum.
My personal belief is that the system near 52/14 will become the dominant of the two, and probably absorb the westerly center based purely on PGF becoming overwhelming and shredding/shearing the low-level vorticity associated with 58/13 (timing all that is next to impossible). The latter cyclone aspect has a clearer and larger mass associated already with its circulation. Caveat, this based purely on satellite observation.
Recon report should be interesting/revealing. Satellite can lie. We have seen plenty of systems with clear and present cyclonic motion in cloud field, but then recon fails to close off circulation, before... It is possible that the west center has a better low level circulation, where the east system has a better elevated/mid level vortex with comparably less low level involvement. In other wods ... a big mess. If that is the case I no longer have a personal belief!
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
Bold emphasis added~ danielw
Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 31 2011 09:07 PM)
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
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Here's a connundrum from the ... by definition, a Tropical Storm Warning is : An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours.
The expects a tropical cyclone to form within 48 hours. So, while it has never (to my knowledge) been done before, I do not see any reason NOT to go ahead and put up a tropical storm warning for the areas that are expected to be impacted by what would be Emily. To issue a statement that the warning may be needed with very short notice is a cop-out, even though there is zero precidence for issuance of a tropical storm watch/warning in the absense of a declared tropical cyclone.
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Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that by issuing a Special Tropical Weather Outlook the has done a good job of providing the necessary alert. The folks on the Islands are not as dependent as others might be on - if something is heading their way they prepare. By Definition:
Tropical Storm Warning:
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified area within 36 hours.
Tropical Storm Watch:
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Except for flooding, modest TS conditions are usually tolerable - and although I certainly would not recommend such a short notice, even one hour meets the criteria of 'within'.
ED
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danielw
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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From the NOAA 49 Gulfstream
NOAA9 02EEA SURV OB 16
This is from the NE Quadrant of the 91L east/right system. Dropsonde from 45,000 feet.
I posted the 4 most significant levels at 10000 feet and below.
Location: 496 miles (798 km) to the ENE (60°) from Bridgetown, Barbados
700mb 3,168m (10,394 ft) 9.6°C (49.3°F) Approximately -1°C (30°F) 95° (from the E) 43 knots (49 mph)
850mb 1,528m (5,013 ft) 17.0°C (62.6°F) 15.2°C (59.4°F) 110° (from the ESE) 35 knots (40 mph)
925mb 798m (2,618 ft) 21.4°C (70.5°F) 19.3°C (66.7°F) 95° (from the E) 34 knots (39 mph)
1013mb (29.91 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 24.1°C (75.4°F) 90° (from the E) 23 knots (26 mph)
SPLash 16.16N/ 052.10W 2216z
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Loc: Opelika, AL
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I took a look at 's position and the CIMMS Wnd Shear Analysis; at 31/2345Z the position of 13.5N 53.0W is directly under the 200/300 mb Upper Ridge. As you move west along the upper ridge axis located along 14N latitude winds are 15 knots from the south and along 16N latitude winds aloft increase to near 30 knots from the southwest. A wind surge may be construed as a gust front; outflow boundary from thunderstorms. Overland we have what are called gravity waves...rapid pressure falls creating gradience behind convective complexes which make for some very strong wind conditions followed by rapid pressure increases and winds return to calm/normal. Someone who is more versed with tropical weather may know more about this phenomena than I. This is a broad area and I wouldn't be surprised like Tip mentioned multiple surface & mid-level vortices...a big mess; I agree. In regards to the north bias the models are running it may be in response to the deeping east coast USA longwave trough in the days ahead. There's simply no way to know in the here and now how much amplification there will be of this trough into the tropics.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"
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