MikeC
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11PM Update 3 August 2011
Not too much has changed with the 11PM Official advisory, odds still favor a recurve before US landfall, and is the official forecast.
But unfortunately we cannot rule out landfall, from the official 11PM discussion:
"If a northward component of motion does not begin soon... or the track guidance shifts father to the left in future cycles... The thread to Florida and the southeastern United States will increase."
Emily may be going at another run of strengthening, in the last vortex message from recon, they spotted rapid tropical storm development in the southeastern side of the system.
A gradual trend toward the west has been the trend all day, see the forecast lounge for more details (Or the model links at the bottom of the main page).
Unfortunately for Haiti, they will likely receive 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, which is extremely dangerous in that environment.
The next set of models run (0z) will have data from the NOAA Gulfstream 'Gonzo' jet that sampled the atmosphere to the north of Emily.
There are no changes in the watches/warnings. A new full official update will come tomorrow morning at 5AM EDT. This site will also be updated tomorrow morning with new information.
8PM Update 3 August 2011
Emily Stalls again, or is reforming the center a bit east under convection, and is expected to resume generally west or west northwest motion later tonight.
6PM Update 3 August 2011
The official 5PM forecast takes Emily over the western peninsula of Haiti (the Tiburon Peninsula), clips eastern Cuba, then north Through the Bahamas. It remains offshore of Florida (closest approach point is Saturday Afternoon as a 60MPH Tropical Storm) and then recurves it out to sea, not affecting any US mainland.
Tropical Storm Watches are now up for the northern Bahamas because of this, and Central Bahamas have been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
Odds still favor the system staying offshore of Florida, but there is considerable uncertainty past the point of exiting the Caribbean.
With Emily still dealing with a tilted center, and earlier in the day it was completely exposed. IT has continued to move west despite earlier official predictions. This trend still is continuing now, so things could change greatly. If the system manages to avoid the mountains of Hispaniola it has a better shot of organizing if it goes north of there.
There still is a low to medium chance that Emily will fall apart, but this becomes less likely the more it avoids Hispaniola.
It is likely to bring extremely heavy rainfall to the Dominican Republic and Haiti regardless, which is especially dangerous in quake ravaged Haiti.
It, unfortunately, is still too early to tell what the system will do if it gets past the Caribbean, so all those in the cone must watch for changes. If the forecast were to change much, Tropical Storm watches could be issued for south Florida. Those in south Florida were reminded in the 5PM official discussion to watch Emily.
11AM Update 3 August 2011
Emily's center of circulation has outrun the convection shield, and is very vulnerable as it moves west.
If it survives the next day or two it will enter a slightly better position to recover, and the current forecast track still takes it east of Florida, but has moved much closer.
If it does reach near Florida without falling apart, it will likely be on the weak side. The current official track takes it across the western part of Haiti, clipping the eastern edge of Cuba,
Then system begins to curve northward toward the Bahamas and clips Andros island, and then recurves out to sea. The closest point to Florida has it as a 60MPH Tropical Storm around 8AM Saturday morning.
The amount of rainfall that Hispaniola, Puerto Rico likely will receive will be great.
In short, the issue today is determining if Emily will survive, and how strong will it be if/when it exits the Caribbean. Until then, the forecast beyond is very speculative and uncertain.
Original Update
This morning the tilted core of Tropical Storm Emily has been moving west northwest around 14 mph. Following the National Hurricane Center's official forecast fairly well. It is expected to make landfall in the Dominican Republic and cross the very rugged mountains into Haiti, which has a good chance to disrupt or even destroy the storm. The rainfall from the system should start to arrive this afternoon in the Dominican Republic.
Assuming it survives the trek over Hispaniola, it is then forecast to begin turning northward toward the Bahamas, and eventually recurve away from land. Chances of it slipping toward the us still exist, but are not likely. By Saturday afternoon it is forecast to be a Tropical Storm in the Bahamas, well east of Florida. I then curves away from the US and goes out to sea. possibly as a hurricane by that time.
Parts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will still want to monitor the progress of Emily, as they are still in the cone, but as of now the chances of a landfall there are fairly low. Expect rough surf this along the east coast this weekend.
Mountains and Tropical Cyclones do not mix, and has dissipated systems in better shape than Emily in the past. The size of Emily may allow it to not be completely destroyed once it crosses, but it definitely will limit any strengthening. One system that did cross in years past was Tropical Storm Fay from 2008, it did cross over Hispaniola and meandered around in Florida bringing extreme amounts of rainfall The rainfall amounts from Emily will likely be very destructive to Haiti, with flooding rains and mudslides, any precautions people can take there are recommended.
Bottom line, things are still a bit cloudy with Emily, and official advisories from the National Hurricane Center and local agencies will still need to be monitored by anyone in the cone This morning it appears less likely for landfall in the US but it still cannot be ruled out. Haiti will likely get flooding rains, and until the system clears Hispaniola the future of Emily is uncertain. And the southern Bahamas should expect Tropical Storm Conditions roughly midday Tomorrow. Slight changes in intensity and the forecast track are very likely.
Beyond Emily, the African Waves will need to be monitored next week, but there is nothing else close by.
Want to read Speculation, and best guesses? Check out the Forecast Lounge.
BoatUS
Dominican Republic Meteorological
Martinique Radar Recording Emily/91L Approach (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Water Vapor Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Emily Floater Visible Imagery (flhurricane)
Long term recording of Caribbean Water Vapor Satellite Imagery of Emily (flhurricane)
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
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MikeC
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The latest round of Recon reports have been a bit south and west of the forecast model and track positions, so it appears a slight adjustment westward will occur at 11 (although not as much as you may expect).
Today is a key day for determining the future of Emily because, how and what direction, it starts turning north determines how much it will be affected by Hispaniola, and the eventual track. Because today is a key day, this is where most of the wobble watching occurs (Ie, north... no west.. no south...). Load up the recon maps (link under "More Recon", and compare it to the model and forecast track if you want to join in on that. In the past it's usually still been ultimately along the cone.
Ie, what heading does Emily need to hit/miss Hispaniola, with the latest recon fix Emily is between 290-300.
The official forecast gets updated at 11AM, 5PM, and 11PM EDT, for the times to check back.
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Cape Weather
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The latest intermiediate advisory states that Emily is moving towards the West at 14 MPH. What is the primary influance that will cause the predicted turn?
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MikeC
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It'll probably make the track shift west, probably over Andros island in the Bahamas, it's going to be a very close call, with odds still slightly favoring offshore even up towards the Carolinas. It'll be a rough beach weekend anyway. The more dangerous part is if it manages to skip west of the mountains of Hispaniola it'll be slightly more intact. (Right now Emily is a borderline Wave/Tropical Storm) and get a chance to ride the Gulf Stream a bit.
This poist would normally be in the lounge, but today is a critical day for setup this weekend.
In short, still a bit too soon to tell exactly.
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Joeyfl
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Well I expected to wake up today to see Emily moving more WNW and it looks like its moving more West which makes it miss running over as many mountains, maybe more likely now to run over Haiti and eastern Cuba. I expect maybe some interesting changes if current trend continues.
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MikeC
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Based on visible satellite imagery, the LLC of Emily may be running west out from the storm, which if this verifies basically means the storm would revert to an open wave, and reduces chances across the board for anything to form.
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Joeyfl
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Yes Mike your right looking at close up of visible the low level center is running out from under the deep convection on due west track. This could change alot of things.
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adam s
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Emily is moving west and is being affected by extremely strong shear at the moment. The center of Emily is very disorganized. If Emily keeps moving west it will not hit the Island of Hispaniola. Emily might hit Cuba. The ridge is much stronger than the models had forecasted.
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JMII
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I noted yesterday that historical data favors a more westerly track, in addition a weaker storm would head that way. Yesterday the official cone kept shifting east, despite the center being south and sometimes ever so slightly west of predicted, but as mentioned the system is not stacked very well, thus the center position doesn't give you the full story. Today Emily looks really ragged and appears to be running into more shear, the outflow has clearly been disrupted. The trough coming off the east coast of the US looks pretty strong and after hitting the mountains Emily will be firmly up against it. Environmental conditions are stacking up against her, the next 24 hours will be interesting. I had her survival at 50/50 yesterday and would bring that number down today. If she survives we'll be looking at very weak storm off the coast of Cuba, that when the real assessment of the situation will begin.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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weathernet
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No doubt, Emily's LLC would appear to be entirely decoupled from any remaining mid level center ( or al least whatever extent of primary convection farther east ). Shear at the moment is having a real impact and inflow is likely restricted due to HIspanola as well. Will assume that might keep Emily as a weakened and minimal T.S. for the next advisory, given the substantial LLC and the typical time it takes to "wind down"; that and the fact that there remains the possibility of refiring of convection close to the westward tracking center.
Beyond continuity and perhaps only a slight chance of short term recovery, I would imagine that Emily will be downgraded to a depression later in the day/evening. In fact, it may well be downgraded to an open wave by this evening, however that should not mean that this remnant vigerous wave is done. Some models still want to either regenerate the mid level remant of Emily and continue to track it across Hispanola, or that the remnant vorticity would still reform either south or north of Cuba in the next couple days. Even if the later were to occur and Florida and/or the Bahamas were to come back into play, the significance of this happening would now appear as more of a rain impact than from wind.
It would seem that barring some pretty unusual set of circumstances though, there should not be a major risk to the U.S. from Emily unless reorganization were to occur AND a stalled reorganizing system were to intensify from little in a hurry.
Edited by weathernet (Wed Aug 03 2011 02:43 PM)
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MikeC
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Repost of 11AM Update:
Emily's center of circulation has outrun the convection shield, and is very vulnerable as it moves west.
If it survives the next day or two it will enter a slightly better position to recover, and the current forecast track still takes it east of Florida, but has moved much closer.
If it does reach near Florida without falling apart, it will likely be on the weak side. The current official track takes it across the western part of Haiti, clipping the eastern edge of Cuba,
Then system begins to curve northward toward the Bahamas and clips Andros island, and then recurves out to sea. The closest point to Florida has it as a 60MPH Tropical Storm around 8AM Saturday morning.
The amount of rainfall that Hispaniola, Puerto Rico likely will receive will be great.
In short, the issue today is determining if Emily will survive, and how strong will it be if/when it exits the Caribbean. Until then, the forecast beyond is very speculative and uncertain.
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scottsvb
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This was all alerted earlier 2 days ago that Emily will encounter a landfall in near 71W and move thru Haiti but have more Rain impact on DR.
Mike is 100% correct on the short term movement and strength will determine the future of Emily.
If she can get past 72W at landfall.. then she will hold her own or probably not go above 1009mb
when crossing Haiti.. but then the next thing will be Cuba.. does she run into the eastern edge or just
stay off the NE coast heading WNW-NW towards San Andros island on Friday
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danielw
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This looks healthy. Photos are using the same lat/ long roughly centered on the main convection. You can see the fibrous horsetail like cirrus outflow clouds around the western periphery of the main convection.
MLC and LLC split could explain the split in the BAM suite of models.
This isn't so healthy. Emily has indeed outrun the main convection. But the last sat photo is showing a buildup just NE of the LLC.
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scottsvb
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GFS his hinting that the LLC will race through Haiti and off the NE coast of Cuba in 24hrs..but a new LLC will form from the convection as it leaves the north coast of Hispaniola. This could happen but right now, the current LLC on how it holds together after making landfall in Haiti will be the key.
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danielw
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Either way I think we will see an even bigger split in the models, later.
It may be the 00Z run before we see significant changes.
Currently All of the BAM suite is on the SW side of the Florida Peninsula.
The right turn is reflected in nearly all of the other models.
Except the BAMD and they want to go toward the Eastern GOM.
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011 edited~danielw
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280
DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP
CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD... AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE REMAINS ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 03 2011 04:28 PM)
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Joeyfl
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Emily still trucking due west albeit quite disorganized the LLC looks like its going to miss Hispaniola possibly, unless this northwest turn happens by days end.
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BayCoGator
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Latest visible frames seem to suggest convection is starting to deepen around the LLC, particularly on the NE side. Also, is that a weak ULL between Jamaica and Haiti that's sliding SW? If so, what impact could that have on Emily's track?
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WeatherNut
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If the LLC goes into Haiti its toast, but the problem this system has been having is dueling centers with neither the LLC or MLC being able to win over the other. The models I think are seeing the MLC winning out after the trip over Haiti and being able to establish a LLC at that time. Will be interesting to see how it plays out
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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stormtiger
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Interesting, the latest recon shows a pressure fall. 1004(ro). Emily is still fighting.
Visible images show thunderstorms trying to be drawn into the low level center of circulation, but the tops are then being blown off to the East.
Very good visible satellite pics, and a very interestign scenario to watch.
Will Emily survive the shear, will she miss Hispanola?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/...ive_vis_floater
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weathernet
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Weird crazy storm! When I least expect, convection is truly attempting to rebuild over the LLC.
Am also noticing some odd new surge of easterly winds suddenly shunting and pushing against the convection ( mid level vortex? ) farther to the east. Of course this could only help in possibly abatting further convection from firing up to the east and thus further thwarting inflow issues to the low level center.
As for the cut off low just north of Jamaica, I had not really noticed it earlier. It is quite small and typically might just be pushed out of the way by a significant system. In this case ( and given its small size and appearant influence ), I would assume it to not reflect down to the 500mb ( steering ) level and thus have no impact in that regard. Emily is curerently being afftect from what would appear to be outrunning its own anticyclone and is being impacted by the very southerly flow from the upper high presently hovering south of Puerto Rico ( and forecasted to move and expand northwards interestingly ). What minor influence the cutoff low dropping south from near Jamaica might provide, would perhaps slightly aid Emily's western flank outflow if the upper low does continue to drop to the south.
Also did notice on the 12Z upper air data/forcast, that there was some odd 300mb winds which seemed to impact some north/easterly shear at that level, while all along the greater 200mb southerly shear remains. Looks like the upper air 300mb issues abate in the very short term, and by 24 hours the greater southerly shear looks to abate quite a bit as well. Longer range ( 2-3 days ) seemed quite transitional. At the base of the current trough, there would appear to be a shear line that might lie north of Cuba and in between the building upper high to its east and the larger upper ridging expanding eastward from the Southeast U.S. On one hand overall ridging would seem to indicate better upper air dynamics, but a small weak storm without any well established anticyclone might fall prey to the varying shear zones. At a minimum, sure does appear that Emily ( or what is left of her ) may traverse less land than earlier thought. Seems oddly complex.
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