MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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IR sat pics this AM are showing what is left of the LLC just off the SE coast of Cuba and the MLC over the SE Bahamas. Which of those areas may regenerate or not is the question for now.
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Michael
PWS
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weathernet
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
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Well, the "entertainer fromerly known as Prince.....ummm I mean EMILY" has left the building..... or has she?
Looking at morning vis. satellite, there appears to me a large very weak center of low level vorticity centered at about 22N and 78W. Hard to tell, but would appear to be moving at around 290. There is some convection firing up over Cuba and seemingly associated with this overall area, and it would appear to me to likely be the remnant LLC of Emily. Looking at Water Vapor, most of the dry air is gone and the atmosphere looks to have moistened up. Upper air models from 6Z would seem to indicate that the area would be conducive for development ( for a developed system ). Just not sure if there remains enough of a structure ( say perhaps from 850mb down to the surface ) to allow for development to occur. If the surface reflection were to continue to move WNW into the SE Gulf, upper air would appear to be less conducive. I would put a low ( but possible ) "questionmark" on any real development here, other than some slight re-organization of a weak low that may be enough to throw some good precipitation over parts of S. Florida, the Keys, and Central Cuba.
I am less confident that the remnant mid level feature of Emily ( over the Bahamas ) will develop due to lacking the low level inflow. This feature might simply just get pulled "up and out" to the NE.
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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Looking at the latest Floater RGB Loop, I'm seeing multiple small LL eddies in the region, but it looks like the actual LL wave axis is here:
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Michael
PWS
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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correct.. and LLV on top of the trough came off the coast line of Cuba about 9am eastern.. its located
at the top of the trough near 22.8N and 78.8W. Movement of the trough is to the NW... and until the
LLV (that the models want to use to develop back into Emily (though only weak-moderate storm)) breaks
off the trough.. it will continue NW and then NNW past 80W...if the LLV breaks off.. it will move N quickly along
79-80W then NNE once it gets past 26N.
So how much the pressure drops at the top of the trough to create a LLC and how fast will determine
how far west this gets in the next 12-24hs
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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It seems to be firing and pulling in some convection right there.
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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BayCoGator
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: NW Florida
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23.3, 78.3 moving roughly WNW? Is that what you're seeing?
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NewWatcher
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 388
Loc: Port Orange, FL
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Right about there yes
We will see what it can do in the next 12-24 hours
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Pam in Volusia County
According to Colleen A ... "I AM A HURRICANE FREAK"
2007 Predictions 16/9/6
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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More like 23.3 and 79.1 .. I think you are seeing the arc of the flare up on the NE side of the vortex that is getting sheared...
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MichaelA
Weather Analyst
Reged: Thu
Posts: 945
Loc: Pinellas Park, FL
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It appears that the models are picking up on the mid-level circulation (what's left of it) where the most convection is occurring near 23.0N; 75.0W with some rather aggressive while others only develop a weak system east of Florida (a couple even ignore it altogether). I guess the next 24 hours will tell one way or another.
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Michael
PWS
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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I wouldn't trust the models right now in where the location is... the direction it moves will be obviously
N then NNE past 26N.. but location is getting better defined down there 23.3N and 79.1W
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JMII
Weather Master
Reged: Thu
Posts: 489
Loc: Margate, Florida
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23 / 79 is where I saw a mini spin, but the whole area has a large rotation to it, with several smaller spins embedded inside at various levels. If any of these can get their act together Emily might reform, but...
Quote:
others only develop a weak system east of Florida
I think this is the key statement. Anything that develops out of this area will be very weak and most likely too far north to have any real impact. There is still plenty of shear out there so don't expect much to occur till that dies off (tomorrow?). Emily's entire life the convection was sheared (mostly to the SE) and that trend continues. Ironically to me it looks like the remaining blob of moisture is following the last track guidance fairly well.
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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
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center is elongated now E-W as its trying to become a LLC off of the trough. Currently its from
23.5N 79W- 23.5N 78.7W drifting NNW
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adam s
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Tue
Posts: 20
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Emily is showing signs of life and looks like a tropical depression on radar. Does anyone think Emily can make a south Florida Landfall?
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I don't want to dive into too much speculation on what a system might do when it has yet to reform - especially on the Main Page. Its somewhat like putting the cart before the horse since Emily's remnants still will require much more organization before it could be classified as a TD. At 05/18Z, ran the BAM suite of models using 23N 78W, but they nudged the position northwest a bit too much when assigning the model input coordinates. At 12Z the center point was at about 22.4N 75.5W and at 19Z the approximate position was 22.6N 77.3 - so a WNW movement at 15 knots. Since then, more convection has developed near/at the center and perhaps more of a northwestward motion as a result. I did notice a spin further west, but convection never did catch on in that area. The entire wave still has at least three separate swirls, so Emily remains true to form (or better stated as 'lack of form') but reformation chances are still on the high side.
ED
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M.A.
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
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Ed, speaking of the multiple vortices.... I see the mid level east of the Bahamas and the LL vortice just north of Cuba. My question would be, What effect or detrement does the mid level vort have on the LL vort? Due to proximity would the mid level have almost like a shearing effect and deter any development on the LLC?
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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It could, but the low-level circulation can take advantage of the warm SSTs in the area (31C) to aid in its further development. The MLC could build down to the surface - normally a much slower process. This gives the LLC an advantage, i.e., it can develop faster, become stronger and eventually create a new 'stacked' system that would overpower the old MLC. Of far more importance, the old MLC is currently experiencing about 25 knots of northeasterly shear. The LLC about 10 knots, so it has a much better chance, IF Emily redevelops, of becoming the predominant center.
ED
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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At 06/00Z, placed the low level swirl of the remnants of Emily at 22.8N 77.2W and these were the coordinates that were used for the 00Z model runs - and these coordinates represent a good position fix. For the past 12 hours the movement has been to the northwest at 6 knots, however for the past few hours the system has been stationary. Note that the convective activity has been on the decline for the past few hours so any additional development is on hold for awhile.
ED
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
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NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1235 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011
EMILYS REMNANTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST...
PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/12Z COMPROMISE
OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWEST OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS AND BRINGS ITS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER INTO FLORIDA WHICH THEN SITS AND SPINS ACROSS THE LOWER KISSIMMEE RIVER VALLEY/JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 12Z CANADIAN/18Z AND 00Z /00Z RECURVE THIS SYSTEM QUICKER OUT TO SEA THAN THE 12Z . THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SOLUTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WHICH FITS THE HISTORY OF EMILY SO FAR...SIMILAR TO A 00Z NAM/12Z COMPROMISE...SHOULD WORK OUT THE BEST. NO MATTER WHICH PIECE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS CHOSEN...THE SURFACE SIGNATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOST BY SUNDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FROM A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STANDPOINT.. .BUT THINKS OTHERWISE.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Current Miami radar base velocity is indicating winds near 30 knots in an area over Northern Andros Island, Bahamas
Edited by danielw (Sat Aug 06 2011 09:30 AM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Long term Recording Long Range Radar off Miami. Note I don't expect much from the remnants of Emily if it reforms it is staying offshore enough that most of Florida will not see any rain from it.
Remember the radar at that far out is showing more mid level than low level, it looks like redevelopment isn't happening today. Maybe tomorrow, if at all. Some small short showers along the very eastern coastline will be about the extent of Emily's remnants to Florida.
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