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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene [Re: Sheeper]
      #91625 - Mon Aug 22 2011 07:35 PM

I'm updating the 18Z model rundown in the lounge, seems like a slight shift west in this run, some of the gulfstream IV data is in there now, but most of it won't show up until the 0z models later.

Recon is finding winds closer to 95-100 mph.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene [Re: Sheeper]
      #91626 - Mon Aug 22 2011 07:40 PM

Quote:

There is a LOT of uncertainty on the track. Our FEMA IMT just got put on deployment standby for "somewhere" on the east coast. No idea where I or Irene will end up!


.

Based on the latest model that could be anywhere from Key West,FL to Cape Cod,Massachusetts.
I'm sure that most of the Eastern FEMA and USAR Teams are being alerted. Or will be in the morning. Odds are the FL and SE Teams will go first and the others will be a wait and see.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene [Re: danielw]
      #91630 - Mon Aug 22 2011 07:51 PM

URNT12 KNHC 222335
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 22/23:25:00Z
B. 19 deg 41 min N
068 deg 39 min W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. 41 kt
E. 145 deg 88 nm
F. 240 deg 56 kt
G. 171 deg 10 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 18 C / 1521 m
J. 23 C / 1517 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. OPEN SE-SW
M. E31/30/24 Elliptical eye, major axis 310-130, length of major axis 30 NM, length
of minor axis 24NM
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 23:21:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C 175 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 08:01 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene [Re: danielw]
      #91631 - Mon Aug 22 2011 07:54 PM

The Weather Channel is reporting an upgrade to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Wind speeds have increased to 100 mph. I'm looking for the update now.

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL092011
750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL
FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC.


SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


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ralphfl
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Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene [Re: danielw]
      #91632 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:00 PM

THE 18Z GFDL IS STILL MOVING MORE AND MORE EAST.THIS RUN IT HAS MOVED ANOTHER SHIFT TO THE EAST maybe sooner or later they will all meet somewhere but it has now 3 runs in a row moved east.

Edited by ralphfl (Mon Aug 22 2011 08:00 PM)


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danielwAdministrator
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Category Two Irene [Re: ralphfl]
      #91636 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:31 PM

I'm still waiting on the hard copy. The Weather Channel is reporting that the NHC Forecast has increased the Forecast Wind Speed to 125 mph in the area of the Bahamas.

This would make Irene a Category 4 Major hurricane near and over the Bahamas.
Irene was previously forecast to pass through the Bahamas as a Category 3 Major Hurricane.

HURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS National Hurricane Center MIAMI FL AL092011
830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND
MAXIMUM OF 106 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF IRENE.
BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 85 KT.
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE
HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE YET
IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON
THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND WAS ALSO SEEN IN A 2230 UTC SSMIS
PASS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB BASED ON A
DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF 982 MB WITH 10 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY
15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A SMALLER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AT 48 AND
72 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
NEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AIRCRAFT
DATA AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0030Z 19.7N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 20.1N 70.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 20.8N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 21.5N 74.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 26.0N 78.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.5N 79.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 08:33 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Category Two Irene [Re: danielw]
      #91637 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:40 PM

Watching the AVN loop, not sure I've seen this much intense convection in the CDO since Wilma was undergoing rapid intensification. This is one storm to keep a very close eye on.

The SSTs are not just warm, they are hot, right now, with most of the region it will be passing over between 29C and 31C. Nothing atmospherically appears to be going to weaken her in the near term.

SSTs:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20110720.gif

SST HHP:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20110720.gif

Main SST site:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html

Edit: SST site was down, not gone, when I last checked. It's back.

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 22 2011 08:46 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Posts: 383
Loc: Plant City, Florida
Re: Category Two Irene [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91638 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:42 PM

This is the one I go to. They buried it on the site a bit but I think it is what you are looking for.

LSU Earthscan labs weekly composite sea surface temps

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Category Two Irene [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91639 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:49 PM

Jim Cantore on the Weather Channel had nearly the same comment.
He was discussing the coldest color semicircle surrounding the Eye. He said he didn't recall ever seeing that color.

The area he referred to is the reddish-white area in the CDO. He also asked Brian Norcross when was the last time he had seen a 100 mph Hurricane without a visible Eye.
Also notice the convection on the South side of the Dominican Republic. Cloud tops there are nearly as high as the cloud tops near the Eye. 100 miles away.



Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 08:57 PM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Category Two Irene [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #91641 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:52 PM

So my question for the night after the stunning development of her rapid intensification to Category 2 status is:

Which models predicated that because they would be the ones I'd give more attention to...

Rarely do you see a storm intensify while it is partially over land and she looks better now than she did a few hours ago.

There is a big difference between a Category 2 in the Bahamas and a Category 3 and am wondering if those models that showed her being a Category 4 (GFDL for one, but I think there was another) might not be totally off.

The power of a hurricane, a major hurricane, is a humbling thing and in itself it can often change the environmental factors driving it. She has a lot of warm, very warm water to run across and am seriously obsessing too much on how strong she can be in the Bahamas.

No matter who gets her up the line... this is going to be a dangerous storm for Nassau...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Joeyfl
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 133
Loc: St.Pete,FL
Re: Category Two Irene [Re: LoisCane]
      #91642 - Mon Aug 22 2011 08:57 PM

Slight shift west in 0z guidance will have to wait to see if others follow suite tonight, I really hope everyone from FL and north is paying attention shes gaining strength quickly.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Category Two Irene [Re: LoisCane]
      #91643 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:00 PM

The last two SHIPS models, that I saw earlier today, had a 44% chance for a 25 knot increase.
I need to look at the 00Z run.

00Z run looks like it was run prior to the 100 mph wind speed report. It's still showing a 25% chance of a 25 kt increase.

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 09:03 PM)


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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Category Two Irene [Re: danielw]
      #91645 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:04 PM

In reference to the last time a 100mph hurricane without a visible eye. Going by Dvorak guidance, the storm should be at least a T5.0 per the intensity chart, however an eye becomes visible at T4.5; SSD is indicating the storm was T4.5 last update while CMISS ADT was showing a T4.2 based on computer analysis of the CDO.

This storm is very unusual. I think essentially it is strengthening too rapidly for the eye to have cleared out yet, but it is actually a higher T number.

CMISS ADT ref: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html


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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Category Two Irene [Re: Random Chaos]
      #91646 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:12 PM

The last time I can recall that large amount of deep convection was (and I hate to say it for pure karmic reasons) but Wilma. Now, Wilma was a special case but I haven't seen that deep of convection out of an Atlantic storm in a while.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Category Two Irene [Re: CaneTrackerInSoFl]
      #91647 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:15 PM

The newest recon fix has found 107knot winds at flight level, with the 90% rule for 700mb applied takes it to 105-110mph winds. Pressure still at 981 though.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Category Two Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #91648 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:20 PM

URNT12 KNHC 230109 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/00:49:00Z
B. 19 deg 49 min N
068 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2944 m
D. 71 kt
E. 269 deg 92 nm
F. 329 deg 60 kt
G. 259 deg 15 nm
H. 981 mb
I. 11 C / 3047 m
J. 17 C / 3050 m
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30 Circular 30 nm Closed EYE.....

N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 08 CCA
MAX FL WIND 107 KT NW QUAD 23:30:20Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 266 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

Good data Mike. Quick rule for the 700mb flight level winds. Take the flight level wind max in knots. In this case 107 knots.
Change the knots to mph and that's a really close estimate without the math of the Surface Wind speed.

107 kt- kt+mph = 107 mph surface wind.

Edited by danielw (Mon Aug 22 2011 09:23 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Category Two Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #91649 - Mon Aug 22 2011 09:35 PM

The NRL link for Irene's Microwave Imagery shows the circular eyewall. It will probably become visible on the IR satellite in a few hours.



Edited by MikeC (Mon Aug 22 2011 09:37 PM)


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k___g
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Re: Category Two Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #91651 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:13 PM

As long as she continues to decrease forward speed the better chance that she will follow the upcoming weakness between the ridges.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Category Two Irene [Re: k___g]
      #91655 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 PM

It appears that the big blowup got interrupted by Hispaniola, it's still a very healthy hurricane, but the boom from earlier has halted, for now.

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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Category Two Irene [Re: MikeC]
      #91656 - Mon Aug 22 2011 10:54 PM

URNT12 KNHC 230251
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011
A. 23/02:38:20Z
B. 19 deg 51 min N
069 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2954 m
D. 71 kt
E. 307 deg 11 nm
F. 048 deg 69 kt
G. 310 deg 16 nm
H. 983 mb
I. 12 C / 3046 m
J. 16 C / 3053 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN E-SE
M. C14
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 77 KT NE QUAD 00:53:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT SE QUAD 02:43:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 307 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR


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