LadyStorm
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Ormond Beach, Florida
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Very windy and rainy here in Palm Coast. Debbie has the appearance of a hybrid system.
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"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"
..........Albert Einstein
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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That last band we just got here in Lakeland was pretty intense. A LOT of wind and a LOT of rain. Lightning and thunder, too. I'm hearing from Bay News 9 that this thing may hang around until Thursday. I hope not! Stay safe everyone!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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OrlandoDan
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 256
Loc: Longwood, FL 28.69N 81.44W
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Off and on hits of rain here in FL in Longwood. Hope we don't get hammered with Tornadic conditions tonightn
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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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This is going to be one of those nights where I sleep on the couch and listen to the BEEP BEEP BEEP on . I'll do ANYTHING to keep my family safe. Am anxious (and a little hopefull) to see the 11pm update. Bryan Norcross (sp?) is seeing that dry air starting to impede on Debby from the west side. Hope she doesn't start moving faster and escape it.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Good luck... it's a wide area across the State that will be doing the same tonight.
Tornado warnings all over. Damage reports coming in...
I see the discussion from the ... seems a lot of intangibles.
The best thing that could happen is if she takes the solution exiting stage left across the state, however the discussion explains why they don't think she will do that... they also leave the door open that they could be wrong.
Dry air moving in... can she battle that and hold on for several days or will they dramatically change the "cone" in the morning. The "cone" looking more like the ice cream on top of the proverbial cone.
Great discussion here, learning a lot and quietly reading.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html
Hoping that the moisture train is shut down and she becomes detached, decoupled from that weather center and just pulls in stays a small, tight swirl visible only on the visible allowing people across the state a chance to clean up and for the waters to recede.
Meanwhile, a death report from Alabama has come in that is considered for now a "storm related death" ...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
Despite what I have read in the discussion, she seems closer to the coast than the coords given out. An illusion I suppose.
"THE APPEARANCE OF DEBBY IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS DEGRADED
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS A SHARP MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION HAS
WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND ERODED ALL OF THE
INNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT
50 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY"
Seems low confidence in their own forecast.
A new tornado warning near Melbourne:
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.ph...e1=Melbourne+FL
&product1=Tornado+Warning
Best advice I could give tonight is to keep the Weather Radio on and handy.... working, on....... going to be a hard night in a lot of places.
And, no closer to knowing for sure what she will do in the morning. Suppose the answer is also rain wrapped.
"HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO."
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 101
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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This really has been an amazing storm so far here on the west coast of FL. There was significant flooding on the beaches with water over seawalls and invading peoples homes, cars submerged, and numerous tornadoes all over the area and just missing my own location which had a high gust of 51mph from the same storm that produced the Tornado just few miles to my south. And we may have a couple days left of this...
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Lots of good weather reports here that would be better suited to the 'Debby Conditions in Your Area' thread that is located in the Storm Forum. Good discussions on the storm itself are certainly appropriate for the Main Page thread. If you haven't checked out that thread in the Storm Forum, there is some excellent reporting over there.
ED
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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I will make this brief this evening...I was over in Brunswick, GA today and just got back home a short time ago. I took a good look at the current upper air analysis charts and Ed's right...Debby will be with us for the foreseeable future. 500 mb upper air analysis reveals multiple upper ridges; the mid-continental is coming in this evening with a stout 598 decameter center with axis extending ESE to a small center just east of Charleston, SC coming in at 588 and a ridge axis extending clear across the Atlantic to Africa and another axis extending to the Antilles; there were height falls as far as Slidell, LA with a decrease of 10 decameters and Jacksonville and Appalachacola coming in at 30 decameter falls during the past 12 hours...this would suggest the trough along the NE USA is stronger than earlier depicted and verifies why the is persistent in pulling the system poleward and NE. The has been extremely reliable these past few tropical seasons; however; there using new l parameters in the model as of June 19; particularly over the continent of Africa; the continues to slowly move the system west in response to the strong upper ridge over the center of the US; this leaves Debby in what we call a COL...it's a crap shoot as to what way Debby will go and how the synoptic scale features evolve...there is simply no way in the here and now we know as to how this plays out...I wish I had a better solution; but the models really are struggling with this system given the strengths of the ridges involved. There was an interesting feature on satellite imagery this evening...possibly a gravity wake that moved rapidly east...it is extremely difficult to find the center on IR tonight.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
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First off, great analysis! What are your thoughts on the upper-level low in the western GOM? This feature helped lift Debby more northward than expected, but what impacts, if any, do you think it will have over the next day or so?
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I propose 2 new models the COIN and EWG.
Flip a COIN or Educated Wild Guess.
Now on to Check the Daily Jumble... err I mean the Models. Looks like a Hydra to me. Kelly Cass called them the Spider ensemble plot.
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Jumaduke
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 8
Loc: North Florida 29.83N 82.66W
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Looking at the latest radar image it's really difficult for me to see Debby as a "traditional" TS system. They must be claiming that it has a center of circulation, as it's still identified as a TS, but to have this kind of image come off radar, where's the rain? As it stands, my area is under a flood warning because of the precipitation that has already fallen in the last 24 hours, but I'm having a hard time believing that Debby is going to add much more water to our area. Maybe I'm missing something, as I'm a general weather newbie. It seems like a very schizophrenic storm ... pressure has fallen from 1000mb at 8:00 p.m. Saturday to 991mb at 11:00 p.m. Sunday, yet activity seems to have dramatically decreased. Am I seeing this right, that
the center isn't even clouding up ?
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Go Gators!
Edited by Jumaduke (Mon Jun 25 2012 07:48 AM)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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Debby, to me, is a split level storm. Mid and upper level is handling well.
The lower level is being handled by the various models wanting to take Debby west to Texas.
The 00Z and HWRF are taking Debby to the area between just east of Mobile Bay to the MS/ AL line in a few days. I didn't really look at the wind speeds or the pressure of either model as i am looking at landfall.
Edited by danielw (Mon Jun 25 2012 08:15 AM)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Good honest discussion here.
Discussion out of the this morning is one of the better ones I've seen in that it honestly talks about the Tropical Storm conditions in various areas.... as far north as the coast of Georgia and South Carolina
So, while looking at your local conditions, you might want to compare and contrast later with what the forecasted this morning.
I know weather last night in South Florida was stronger than anyone expected it to be as the dry line set up one long ...what looked like a pre-frontal trough line like you usually see in the winter. But, that reflects the cooler dry air that was being forced north into Debby mixing with the very warm air.
You can see this here:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
Also, thanks for the explanation for why the may have handled it better.
Locally, weather mets on air in Raleigh NC are insistent this is a "strong front" for this time of year and it will be clearing the area by this evening... and the morning will bring temps in the 60s... that's a big drop.
Will Debby take the bait or sit and wait?
If she does.... the needs to be more respected next time around..
Just want to add.... I also think this storm is not "stacked" well and there are centers at different levels. It hasn't been spoken about much, it reminds me more of some old images of Superstorms and not really Tropical Storms ....yet...........it falls barely within the limits of being Tropical and it is on the maps and areas are experiencing Tropical Storm conditions so it's more of dealing with what is and I am sure the post game analysis by the at the end of the season will be extremely compelling reading.
"WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...4 TO 6 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...2 TO 4 FT
ALABAMA-FLORDA BORDER EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE."
"RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES
POSSIBLE. SURROUNDING THIS AREA...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN"
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
Edited by LoisCane (Mon Jun 25 2012 09:09 AM)
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stormtiger
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 71
Loc: Baton Rouge, La.
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On another board I saw where someone was giving the credit for coming closest to the track of Debby, but for the wrong reason. They felt that the had Debby being pulled Northeast by the trough to her North while in fact the upper low to Debby's west pushed her Northeast when it took a Southwest dive in the GOM.
I read this site religiously and honestly feel the guys and gals here have some of the best takes and the approach here to analyze and not hype is defintely better than the other places to get tropical information.
So what do some of you think? Was the right for the wrong reason or was it just right?
Ed, if my question is not in the right forum please relocate as need be.
Thanks
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Good question, same request but responding.
An ULL is a funny thing. If you are on one side of it, it makes you look fantastic... ventilates you and helps you become a tropical entity often.
The wrong side of an ULL and it eats away at you, pushes you away, creates a very hostile environment.
Oddly, I thought often while viewing Debby that she looks a lot like one of those Upper Level Lows that track west over South Florida and when you get their "dirty side" the signature looks very similar and so does the messy rain.
It's not all about the trough, but I do believe the read the trough and other variables better than the Euro did.
Now what is my question for this or any forum.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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Beach
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 187
Loc: Cocoa Beach/Banana River
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I don't think Debby is ready to quit just yet. Looking at the Visible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html
You can still see the center pretty well.
Lets not forget Fay... "Go away Fay" Just a simple TS that sat off the coast for 3 days dumping 30 inches of rain in Melbourne. I'm here in Cocoa and it's been raing pretty much non stop since yesterday. 3-5 more days of this and the real pain begins.
Atleast all the fires are put out. :-) ... Thank You Mother Nature. ... be careful what you wish for. 
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Thanks! I'm looking at the 500 mb Upper Air Analysis right now...quick discussion...and height falls are still in progress over the SE USA...I want to take a look at a few other charts from the 12Z run...
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Haven't looked here for over a day. I think wins. The midwest ridge influence enters the GOM over Louisiana, and the trough is lifting the system out. The real winner has been the dry air over run which likely was influenced by the ULL in the W/GOM which has always been a player. It kept the system from being more formidible than it is. The whole GOM seems to be under an upper level cycloninc flow right now.
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doug
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Steve H1
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 289
Loc: Palm Bay FL USA
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The trouble with Debby! She is meandering around with fairly steady shear over her. If she maintains depression status and crosses mainland Florida into the Atlantic, wonder if the ridge will get on top of her and stall her OR move her back westward. She is moving slowly NE but caught in between troughiness in the western Atlantic and ridge to the west. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 25 2012 05:00 PM)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Its looking to me like the center has been pulled underneath the latest blow up of convection. This would put it just barely onshore. The low level feed is also indicating this
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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