MikeC
Admin
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Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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6:30 PM EDT Update 24 August 2012
Isaac is now an upper-end Tropical Storm with a well-defined center of circulation and solid banding features. In fact, within just the past few hours, there is a hint of a weak eye trying to form.
In the near term, the greatest forecast challenges for Isaac have to do with how much land interaction he is going to have, and how much of it is going to be mountainous. It is expected that the cyclone will quickly pass over western Haiti and eastern Cuba, with little serious deterioration to its core, allowing Isaac to then ride along the northern coast of Cuba, slowly restrengthening.
The above is made even a little more complicated by the fact that Isaac has been trending stronger, and heading a little more north than expected, likely in response to being much better organized this afternoon.
NHC's latest forecast is truly threading the needle, and it would not be surprising to see meaningful changes, up or down, east or west, to it, as the cyclone makes its way through this region, which basically means that everyone within and just outside the "Cone of Uncertainty" should be taking necessary precautions by this time.
Keep in mind that Isaac has tropical storm winds extending up to 185 miles from the center. This is a relatively large tropical cyclone, and a Tropical Storm Warning is now up for Andros Island, with Tropical Storm Watches up for the northwestern Bahamas, and all of the Florida Keys, the Florida east coast south of Jupiter Inlet, the Florida west coast south of Bonita Beach, Florida Bay and Lake Okeechobee. These are in addition to the watches and warnings immediately in Isaac's path.
Ciel
11 AM EDT Update 24 August 2012
Soon after the morning post, things started to turn around with Isaac, and it is now beginning to strengthen.
7:15AM EDT Update 24 August 2012
Today is 20 years to the day hurricane Andrew hit south Florida. For pure wind damage, no storm since has come close, only caused more damaged (mostly due to storm surge).
Isaac this morning has not improved much overnight, and the trend of a weak stop with some energy moving west and the center being pulled north appears to be going to continue to keep it weak at least most of today.
Because much of the energy is to the south of the reported center, Jamaica now has a Tropical Storm watch up.
Without a definitive center the actual path of Isaac will be difficult to determine, even today. Luckily, if it remains weak and disorganized, other than rain, the wind threat likely wouldn't be so great for the islands it is approaching.
On the other hand, based on recon data, the elongated axis, or "center", appears to be stair-stepping toward alignment, and as usual, if this manages to align and stack up vertically, there isn't much to prevent strengthening. It seems much more close to being stacked (or even may already be so, which would indicate a strengthening storm as it approaches the islands, which is not so good)
Bottom line, today is the day where Isaac could get its act together, and the future track hopefully will become more clear, but it hasn't done it so far this morning, although there are more signs that it may. Still, the dropsonde data indicates the surface center is north of where the flight level center is, thus the 's advisory position being on the north side.
11PM EDT Update 23 August 2012
There was a good good shift west with the 11PM advisory in the long term, and places it in the Central Gulf, but interestingly in the near term it shifted right (toward the keys).
There will likely be more adjustments to the track, thankfully intensity is kept low due to how weak Isaac is now, and the land interaction forecast, up until it gets into the Gulf, where it is forecast to reach hurricane strength.
Tomorrow will likely be a critical day in determining the future path of Isaac.
Those along Florida, the Gulf coast in particular, in the northern gulf, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, need to watch Isaac closely tomorrow and over the weekend. Based on the forecast, the Florida Keys are likely to have tropical storm watches issued sometime tomorrow.
There is very high uncertainty in the forecast beyond 3 days out.
"Split" systems are notoriously mind numbing to track, many times they fall apart, rarely do they come together, however the water temps are very much in favor of it bucking the odds tomorrow afternoon especially (then or probably never if it crosses Haiti)
11AM EDT Update 23 August 2012
TD#10 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Joyce, not affecting mainland land, but could approach Bermuda.
Isaac's track has not changed much, and the spread is still fairly much the same. All of Florida and the Gulf will need to watch. Isaac may be weak right now, but it is a very large system, and impacts will be felt a good distance from wherever the center passes. A large system is more capable of driving storm surge along the coast as well.
Strength wise, conditions are very good for intensification when, and if, it gets its act together.
7AM EDT Update 23 August 2012
Tropical Storm Isaac remains a large but disorganized Tropical Storm this morning, as recon failed to find an organized center overnight, and wind speed is down to 40mph. It seems to be still suffering from competing centers.
Today is a day of transition and not much will change with the future track, tomorrow becomes more interesting based on how close and how much time the system spends over Hispaniola. Conditions are expected to improve tomorrow, and Hurricane Warnings are up for Hispaniola, mainly in the southwestern part, and all of Haiti.
In the short term, jogs and center relocation will make getting a handle on the future track difficult, but the general pattern of the 's track seems good.
TD#10 will likely be upgraded to a Tropical Storm later today, and Bermuda is in the long range cone.
8PM EDT Update 22 August 2012
Tropical Storm Isaac is now in the Eastern Caribbean, and still moving westward around 21mph.
Isaac has remained relatively weak and disorganized today, as the center appears to not have solidified around a single vortex.
Tomorrow conditions may be more favorable for development.
Hurricane Warnings are now up for the Dominican Republic and Hurricane Watches are now up for Haiti. Eastern Cuba may see watches/warnings tomorrow.
The NOAA Gulfstream jet did not fly today, but will tomorrow, so model runs starting Friday should be a bit better. initialized.
Anywhere in the cone should keep track of what Isaac is doing. Hopefully by the time it nears Hispaniola a better trend (west, east, current) can be found for future movement.
Noaa Hurricane Research Division Flight twitter
9:15 AM EDT Update 22 August 2012
96L is likely to become TD#10 today, this storm will likely stay out to sea.
7:00 AM EDT Update 22 August 2012
Tropical Storm Issac is currently about 280 miles east of the Lesser Antilles this morning, and moving westward around 18 miles per hour. It will likely cross the northeastern Caribbean islands this afternoon, and be in the northeastern Caribbean, the forecast takes it to hurricane status by the time it is south of Puerto Rico. Because of the proximity to Puerto Rico at the time, and it being in the cone, Hurricane Watches are now up for Puerto Rico and the US Vrigin Islands. The closest approach to Puerto Rico should be around Tomorrow Afternoon.
Beyond that, it is forecast to approach the island of Hispaniola, still as a hurricane, so Hurricane watches have been raised for the Dominican Republic. Saturday morning is when it should be near Hispaniola.
The forecast then takes it briefly across the western part of Haiti, and eastern Cuba, approaching the Bahamas and potentially Florida after that. Central and South Florida is in the cone as of this morning, but so is Jamaica, and the Northern Bahamas. It remains prudent to watch beyond the Hurricane Watch areas, but much could change that far out. Still, based on the official Hurricane track, if Isaac were to approach South Florida, conditions would deteriorate late Sunday Afternoon and Evening and landfall would likely be Monday morning is when it would be near South Florida, if it were to approach there as a borderline cat 1/2 hurricane.
Intensity forecasts are usually off and the strength of the system could be weak or strong based on exactly how much land interaction occurs with Hispaniola. Many systems have been torn up by the mountains there, never to fully recover.
Last year, another I storm, Irene was also forecast toward Florida at this point (See the forecast history for Irene (2011)), this one is in a similar spot, but conditions around it are different from last year. This is brought up to show that the forecast can change, and to keep watching it over the next few days, by the time it nears Hispaniola there should be a better idea of the eventual track of the system. You should have already prepared for hurricane season much earlier this year.
In short, those in the watch area need to prepare for a possible hurricane (PR/VI and Hispaniola), and those in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida need to keep tabs on this system especially as it nears Hispaniola.
The models will shift west and east over time, even the Gulf of Mexico to Carolinas cannot be ruled out, anywhere in the cone should be watching the system very closely.
4:30 PM EDT Update 21 August 2012
Based on recon reports and the best track update, TD#9 is to be upgraded shortly to Tropical Storm Isaac.
Original Update
Invest 94L has acquired sufficient convective organization to be classified as a tropical depression, and advisories have begun on Tropical Depression Nine.
Because of the forward speed, Tropical Storm Warnings have been raised for the Lesser Antilles islands of Dominica, Guadeloupe, Desirade, Les Saintes, Marie Galante, St. Martin, St. Kitts, Nevis, Antigua, Montserrat, Anguilla, and Barbuda.
Tropical Storm Watches are up for Saba, St. Eustatius, Saba, St. Eustatus, along with the British and US Virgin Islands. Puerto Rico, Veques, and Culebra.
TD9 has a solid structure with which to build on, and is now efficiently fending off dry air entrainment. Consequently, further development is likely, and Nine will probably become Tropical Storm Isaac later this morning, or afternoon.
The forecast is for a hurricane to be in the eastern Caribbean on Thursday, and moving still fairly quickly to the west, potentially interacting with the Dominican republic or Haiti on Friday, and possible moving near Cuba Saturday into Sunday. Beyond that is lounge discussion, anywhere in the cone should watch the progress of this system very closely. This storm is in a similar position and setup to Irene from last year, so in reality, if it survives the northern Caribbean islands, those in the US from south Florida on up the coast may want to keep track of it. Puerto Rico and the US VI are in the Tropical Storm watch area.
Invests 95L & 96L continue slowly organizing. With 95L just south of Texas, and at least a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours, this is the most concerning of the two. 96L is following on the heels of Nine, but is several days away from becoming any potential threat to land masses.
Discussion on (now) TD 9 has been lively in the Forecast Lounge .
Flhurricane French Antilles Radar Recording of Isaac approach - Alternate View
Long Term RBTOP Satellite Float of Isaac (2012) -- Alternate style
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
Barbados Brohav Weather Fax
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop
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Latest Static)
Various Caribbean Radio Stations
East Florida Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
South to North:
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track
SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
FLorida Keys -
Miami/South Florida -
Melbourne/East Central Florida -
Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -
Northeast Gulf Links
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track
Area Forecast Discussions:
Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola -
Panhandle/Tallahassee -
Tampa/West Central Florida
North Gulf Links
North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop
(Latest Static)
East to West:
Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Houston/Galveston, TX Radar Long Range Radar Loop
(
Latest Static)
Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery
Area Forecast Discussions:
Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola -
New Orleans, LA -
Lake Charles, LA -
Houston/Galveston, TX
Issac Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Isaac
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Isaac
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Isaac
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Isaac
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Isaac -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Joyce Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of Joyce
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Joyce
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Joyce
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Joyce
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Joyce -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
97L Event Related Links
Animated Model Plot of 97L
SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
(More Tracking Information)
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97L
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97L
(Animated!)
Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97L -- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 24 2012 06:59 PM)
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Added radar recording:
Flhurricane French Antilles Radar Recording of TD#9 approach - Alternate View
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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NHC held off on giving Nine a name at the 11:00 Advisory, as the cyclone passed by a buoy sporting not very impressive pressure and wind. This is most likely largely due to the fact that a little bit of dry air, being introduced from some moderate northeastly shear, is still in play. Persistent deep convection has continued to be displaced to the northwestern, southwestern and southeastern quadrants.
Recon is now en route to the system, and we should be getting quality, reliable data from inside Nine within the next hour or so.
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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Recon reporting flight level winds of 40 mph and surface winds at 35 with pressure down to 1005 mb. Based on that we should be elevated to a TS at the next advisory.
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Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 19:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Tropical Depression: Number 9 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 18:58:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°20'N 53°20'W (15.3333N 53.3333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 448 miles (722 km) to the ENE (70°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the ENE (61°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 146° at 44kts (From between the SE and SSE at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the ENE (60°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 304m (997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 246m (807ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 25°C (77°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 18:51:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 551
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I would think it prudent for the entire Archipelago, up to the Florida Straight and the Bahamas out in time, needs to monitor this system closely.
The immediate 72 hours show that the models are pretty tightly clustered around a notion that would take the TC to just So of Puerto Rico. There after the usual divergence quickly ensues and solutions range from S of Cuba (and weak) like the Euro, to rather heavily developed and a threat to Florida and SE U.S. It is way too early to be certain which reality comes to bare regarding this TD's fate.
This isn't the only system to monitor. Their is an impressive vortex signature involved with 96L.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Tue Aug 21 2012 04:43 PM)
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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Very true... a system behind what will most likely be Isaac soon... a system that will most likely become Joyce.
The has a wide path it covers as a possible track. Isaac could easily begin to move more wnw and then bend back. Where and if and how it deals with Hispaniola is one of the biggest questions.
There is also a track due west ... we all look at the middle of the cone which looks aimed at South Florida but it's a wide cone and it's still five to six days out.
During that time, as I have said to many... it's time to prepare, go over your supplies, plans...evaluate them and document things... because if Isaac doesn't affect you another storm might.
This is not hyping, it's being practical. Easier to cram for a final in college, than it is to run around preparing for a storm when everyone else has already gone shopping.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Best track implies an upgrade at 5pm, we will see shortly.
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 551
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Yep, Isaac officially -
LOCATION...15.4N 53.9W
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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Issac should start getting better organized each day till it gets close to Hispaniola in 3 days. Could reach hurricane strength in 2 days south of Puerto Rico. The dry air is almost gone.. slight ENE wind shear but shouldn't be much of a factor. Question after 3 days from this post is how close it gets to Hispaniola. Ridge to it's N should keep this going around 275-285wobbles in deg. I won't say here what I think will happen in Days 4 or 5 cause that is for the forecast lounge.
Speaking of which.. I recommend that we open up the general forum more on short term predictions out to 3 days but with people giving logical reasons. The site has greatly diminished over the years... alot has to do with people not wanting to post their forecast in another forum here. If we open it up more to what I said above.. the fan base for the site will increase somewhat... but again.. keep it to a 3 day or less forecast with reasons why they think it will happen. Days 4 and longer should remain in the forecast lounge.. Maybe call the other forum . Long Range Predictions
Scottsvb
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 551
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I believe much of the traffic reduction has some to do with competing forums, but mainly that since 2005 the TC threat frequency to the the SE U.S. and the Florida area has greatly diminished. In 2005, Florida was like the proving ground at an air force missile testing site, as nature dealt them salvo after salvo of whacks upside the head. Immediately the next season there were no threats; and I noticed straight away the traffic was halved immediately, the next year halved again.
During 2005 it was crowded and often unruly on . Even with the best of Moderator attention, free-speculation devoid of much Meteorological value was too often flown. The problem here is that we want to be a reputable source that can be trusted, as much as serves to provide both entertainment, and a nexus for enthusiasts and educated alike. It is difficult to placate the novice with an itchy trigger finger while aspiring to that goal.
Personally I do not see any harm in perhaps adopting a "Scorched Earth" policy where certain postings are allowed during quiescent times, then limits are imposed during tense storm monitoring. But I am not sure that is plausible with the current staff of Admins and Moderators having alternate lives, and do this voluntarily.
That's about all we need to say about this; if we would like to continue the discussion, we can definitely take it off line. Perhaps include Mike or another Admin with your concerns - they are not without merit.
Thanks,
John
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JoshuaK
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 127
Loc: Central Florida 28.12N 81.99W
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Looks like the winds have increased to 45mph, with pressure at 1003 mb based on the 22/7:12:00Z Vortex Message.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Based on the timing and assuming the forecast track holds, storm/hurricane watches for south Florida could go up as early as late Friday Evening or Saturday morning.
Florida Keys recommendations for non-visitors to leave could be as early as tomorrow afternoon or Friday. Link: Monroe County EM and and floridadisaster.org
Timing of the actual storm would be late Sunday or Monday morning in extreme south Florida.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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NHC has triggered an upgrade to system 96L.
Advisories on Tropical Depression 10 should be posted shortly.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The NOAA Gulfstream IV (High Altitude Jet, nicknamed Gonzo) will possibly be flying later today and for sure tomorrow, which will help greatly with model forecasts as it samples the area in front of and around the storm (not the storm itself, usually)
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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I'm still a bit concerned with the Euro staying on the more southerly track. It has been that way for several runs. People in the northern gulf please dont let your guard down, because if the Euro track verifies we are looking at a strong system...FL is not a lock yet though most likely. We will know tomorrow most likely if it pulls north early or if the Euro is right
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Born into Cleo (64)...been stuck on em ever since
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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The better news with Isaac this morning is that it's relatively unorganized at the surface, which likely means it'll stay weaker for most of the day.
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Which it would seem the more W track?Still moving at a good clip hence the high is strong to the N.This storm is going to be painful it seems for someone.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Watch the recon fixes, currently a bit north of the forecast (but south of yesterday's forecast), but mainly due to wobbles, the lounge talks about the models more, but there may be some corrections to the west and probably back east later, but until the System is inside the Caribbean and near Hispaniola, a lot of the tracks will be suspect, including the idea of it moving further westward.
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Quote:
I'm still a bit concerned with the Euro staying on the more southerly track.
Ernesto tracked south of the prediction, when he was in the same area as Isaac Jamaica was in the cone:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/graphics/al05/loop_5W.shtml
Granted condition changes, so this pattern may not hold, but a more southerly track would not be unreasonable. Especially if Isaac stays weak and a trip over the mountains (Haiti/Cuba) could make such a track very plausible.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
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There is currently an impressive convective blowup near to where the center of circulation is approximately between 15 and 16 N and 60 and 61 W. It also appears as though Isaac has integrated the thunderstorms to the southeast of the center. Would not be surprised if Isaac's core is more organized on the next pass through by recon which shouldn't be too long from now. Also wouldn't be surprised if this trend continues that Isaac strengthens as it appears as if the dry air has been worked through and there is enough moisture in the environment to sustain Isaac.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Isaac seems to be suffering from multiple vortices, and wind patterns around the recon fixes are off, which may mean a center relocation may occur.
Isaac, based on recon, is weak right now, arguably barely enough to consider it a TS.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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There was talk yesterday that recon had found multiple vortexes... or a displaced center.. and that would explain why it has taken so long for Isaac to pull it together.
On the other hand... Isaac is a very large area of weather and it's common for two centers ...sometimes three... to compete. I have a paper somewhere by Partagas who writes on the formation of I believe Betsy but might have been Cleo how two centers were tracked for a while.. and it's only after the one center took over the storm took off and intensified. I can dig it out...
Point... this is common in both weak tropical storms and large tropical storms.
I'm hoping the information the Gulfstream jet obtains will give us a better picture down the road.
Because....the bigger problem is down the road.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 551
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Early stage TC often do come with broad centers where multiple circulation foci can be identified.
I have been carefully observing the satellite loops since yesterday; it appears that light shear from the NE helped dislodge a Central Dense Overcast feature. That feature than trundled through the Islands during the morning, and has an on-going associated convective max near 62,5W by 15N. The lower level circulation became diffused when that disconnection happened. This primary convective max at 62.5/15 may very well engineer a new circulation as it cores down through the lower troposphere - or not. It alone has banded structure; it is important to remember that satellite structure and lower level circulation closures often misrepresent.
As of 5pm TPC has placed the center of Isaac as a best guess, near 61,2W/16N. I find it interesting that they admit that the actual center may be SE of their fix, but that they are trying to take a mean of all the apparent vortex signatures. Not sure I see that they have any other choice. However, currently there is a rather smart looking convective max near 59W/15N, which indeed would coincide better with that SE statement they made. Time will tell. Center jumps also take place commonly with broad circulation zygote TCs, which physically is more than likely of the same phenomenon ilk you mentioned.
Bottom line is that Isaac is poorly organized. Depending on what/which vortex local max becomes dominant will depend on best oceanic/atmospheric coupling in the thermodynamic process, and there really isn't anyway of predicting where exactly amid the larger circumvallate that will occur. It's a hurry-up-and-wait scenario. Where this consolidates could conceivably have an effect on where it ultimately goes, as well.
As of now there is plenty of time to monitor this, but all of Florida, the SE U.S. Coast, over to the central Gulf needs to at least monitor the progress of Isaac.
Edited by typhoon_tip (Wed Aug 22 2012 05:41 PM)
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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I don't think we can think with too much certainty past 72 hours on Isaac because the system continues to be the tale of the east side and the west side of the storm.
I have been away for a few days and it still looks pretty much the same no real dominant center but a broad circulation...I say confidence is at 72 hours because it will remain weak as long as Isaac is not consolidated. A weaker system will generally resist the poleward slide and this would mean a southern route ala the . This model does intensifies the system later and the result is a shaper but later turn northward more into the central gulf. Looking back at the system's progress over the past few days we see not much change in intensification and a fairly persistent westward movement along 15N. As long as Isaac remains disorganized the past may represent the future...
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doug
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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I think as much as the different models have disagreed past the 3rd or 4th day almost all the models agreed when it came to Isaac staying weak until he nears Cuba.
Some models had it intensifying over Cuba on it's way to Florida which I never understood.
This model from the other day showed dueling, pinwheeling vortex/centers. I thought it was weird the other day.
Now I see what it was indicating... also not when it gets stronger.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cg...;hour=Animation
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
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I tend to agree; however, the Euro has consistently been an outlier in this case. And unless the Euro is on to something that the rest are missing, I would tend to listen more to the , which has has performed almost as well as the Euro has the past two years.
Either way, I believe we are in for more rain, which we don't need in this state.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Noaa Hurricane Research Division Flight twitter
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Mozart
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 36
Loc: Simpsonville, SC
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On satellite tonight it almost looks like the 2 COCs are merging with the one to the SW swallowing the other one and the storm moving that way. That could move the cone even further to the west than where it is now. The 11 PM update will be interesting to see if the sees it the same way.
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Agnes - 1972, David - 1979, Bob - 1985
Hugo - 1989
TS Jerry - 1995 (14 inches of rain in 12 hours)
Hurricane Ivan - 2004
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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not sure how the models work but would think the euro is reading the lead center not the one we have been tracking
watching to see how it plays out
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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ftlaudbob
Storm Chaser
Reged: Tue
Posts: 723
Loc: Fort Lauderdale,Fl 26.11N 80.12W
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Quote:
not sure how the models work but would think the euro is reading the lead center not the one we have been tracking
watching to see how it plays out
Looking at the latest model runs,I expect the track to shift back to the east at 11:00.
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Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.
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BayCoGator
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: NW Florida
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I'm thinking it could be slightly west, or unchanged. The center might be consolidating south and west of the previously estimated position at the last advisory.
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ralphfl
Weather Master
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Posts: 435
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And with that the 11pm is out and it was nudged slightly to the west because of the model runs
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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I don't say this lightly but I think the is the model of choice and I asked Ed earlier today if what I am looking isn't center position and he replied telling me there were multiple centers two days ago and he's right. The 5 pm advisory talked about this and I'm not crazy enough to suggest Florida is off the hook just yet but if this system tracks much farther west the really winds this system up in the central GOM; I see nothing on the 23/00Z upper air charts to indicate where Issac is likely to go; no height rises or falls between the two stout upper ridges to give me an indicator of what track is likely to prevail.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Just read the 11 pm ET update...a bit of a nudge to the west...and a due west movement...good for Florida if it continues.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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danielw
Moderator
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Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've been looking at the 2 centers, or clusters, if you will. They are exhibiting a Fujiwhara effect and rotating about each other a bit at this time.
The eastern center is now overtaking the western center as they rotate counter-clockwise.
My question is: Which center is the model initializing on?
If the model initializes on E, and E rotates to W then the Initial Point is off by X degrees. I hope that I'm not confusing anyone with this.
It's similar to a multi-vortice tornado. The vortices rotate around the center.
If this is having any effect on the models the end result could be really bad for preparedness and evacuation.
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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it's suppose to be going west to west north west for the next 3 days till Saturday into Sunday.. then by later Sunday a more NW motion will ensue... question will be.. where the turn happens and how much interaction with Cuba this has.
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
I thought this was rather interesting...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1132 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012
.SYNOPSIS...TS ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB
SEA THROUGH THU WITH RAINBANDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THU AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRI.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE WAS THE CANCELLATION
OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AS ISSAC IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO REACH
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HRS. FCST CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN A
STATUS QUO DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF ISAAC. CENTER WAS
RELOCATED AT 00Z BUT THE 34-KT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED ON THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF THE
CENTER REFORMED FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FCST TRACK. FOR NOW...STILL APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINS
WILL START LATE TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRI WITH THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE ERN HALF OF PR AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING
THE HEAVIEST RAINS AND THUS FLOODING.
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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In any developmental stage of a tropical cyclone the models are only as good as the data being input into them; there have been no sampling of the system and the envelope it is in that I'm aware of and have not noted any data on the upper air charts. Clearly early this morning; the center is organizing considerably farther south than earlier and that suggests the model of choice is the and with each model run the consensus is relocating the cyclone in the future further west and it cannot be ruled out that states farther west are by no means out of the woods; when and where and how long Issac will be over Cuba will be a big player with Issac's strength down the road. With each model run; Issac is becoming a very serious situation for the Gulf coast.
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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Bloodstar
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: Georgia Tech 33.78N 84.40W
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I think recon is having real trouble finding a closed Center of Circulation right now.
Despite the excellent satellite appearance, Isaac may be a very sharp open trough at this moment.
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TD/TS/HU/MH
19/18/0905 <- My prediction (2013 Predictions)
00/00/00/00 <- Year Totals
http://blog.bloodstar.org
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Based on the current loops (visible and water vapor) Isaac's main energy looks to be S of his predicted position and still moving due W. Who knows where the true center is but even the forecast shows he needs to make a major NW shift in order to be on track, unless the center of circulation is actually north of the what looks a center to me. The UK model is still pushing him west into the gulf. All the models take him over some pretty rough/high mountains and that is a tough transition for any storm. I would expect a weaker storm moving more W then N at that point. For referrence: the 11PM Tuesday update (#4) had Isaac as hurricane just of Puerto Rico by tonight (Thursday 8 PM) but clearly that is not happening.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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BayCoGator
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: NW Florida
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Concur, based on latest imagery. Isaac would essentially have to be moving almost due NW right now to clip Haiti/DR. Euro seems to have the better bead on the strength (weaker) which is seemingly preventing the more poleward pull that the other models incorporated based on a stronger Isaac by now.
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mikethewreck
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
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There are three low pressure centers in that part of the ocean: Isaac, TD10, and the ULL to their north. Could ALL of these low pressure centers be doing a Fujiwhara kind of dance where the combined rotation is keeping Isaac from driving NW and driving TD10 more northward and less eastward than projected?
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 53
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With that curved band forming near to just north of the surface center the convective organization appears a bit improved, but with all that mid and upper level cloud debris it's impossible to tell what's going on at the surface. Only this afternoon's recon will be able to tell us if the flow has tightened up at all. Given how difficult it is to tell what's going on by watching the San Juan long distance loop I'm guessing not much has changed.
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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11AM and another nudge west. The discussion talks about a turn to the WNW this afternoon, until then Isaac is heading due west and thus might miss its next predicted location. The has smoothed out path over the next day to fix that earlier NW correction/jog. And I also noticed a change in timing, putting the storm in the southern Keys at 8AM Monday instead of 2AM. He does seems to be getting his act together and is at least looking like a proper tropical system now with a central core and some decent outflow. If the current path holds true Isaac is going to spend a long time over Cuba, given him only small window to crank up before clipping the SW corner of FL (Key West only?) before heading into the Gulf.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 224
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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I just don't see any hint of movement to the NW. Looks like it is heading due west. With weaker systems less likely to turn, do you think it is possible this could end up being a Jamaic storm with a late recurve into Florida like what Charlie did as it strengthened rapidly? that might actually allow it to strengthen more if it stays farther off of the Mountains of Hispanola.
You are right that if it goes until later today on this due west course it will miss Haiti entirely.
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2012 Season Prediction: 16/8/3
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
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Latest Advisory shows TS Isaac's LLC at 16.0 N 66.4 W with a movement now toward the W/NW. Looking at the latest satellite imagery (http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SATATL_FLOAT1/vis0.gif), it appears that the circulation is farther S, roughly 14.8 N. Is this the mid-level circulation that I am seeing?
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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 224
Loc: Plant City, Florida 28.01N 82.12W
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To my untrained eye, there looks to be more circulation at about 15 N and 67W. I guess I can understand what they are saying is the center, but it is NOT easily discernible in all of that cloud mess. It is almost as if they are looking at (and tracking) a vortex that is outside of the actual center of spin and is therefore rotating around the actual center. If this is the case, we may see an adjustment to the south as it spins around to the west and southwest. I still say this thing is going mostly west. Clouds are trying to wrap the center but keep getting broken up by drier air. My forcast calls for steady strengthening later tonight into tomorrow and threatening Jamaica in about 48 hours as a Cat 1. (did I say I was untrained?)
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If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2012 Season Prediction: 16/8/3
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 53
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Satellite and recon are showing that Isaac continues to be poorly organized. The center of mid level rotation remains south of the surface center, and the surface flow itself remains a broad mess. This thing will have to put on a real show to approach hurricane status before reaching Haiti.
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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Ok got it...the 's center is located beneath the small convective area located now just north of 16n and between 66-67. There is evidence of cyclonic rotation in that small mass...However there is evidence of cyclonic turning to the SW of that also and maybe other points as well. If that is the case, then the point of lower pressure is not controlling the circulation and is not a true center of circulation. The point that seems to be controlling the visible signature of the system may well be not on the surface at all. The area of convection that is associated with the point of lowest pressure is having difficulty maintaining itself. I do not see any real evidence that any consolidation and strengthening is actually underway.
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doug
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BayCoGator
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: NW Florida
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Quote:
To my untrained eye, there looks to be more circulation at about 15 N and 67W.
Looks that way to me, too. And my eye is extremely untrained.
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 101
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Note upper air mission to get better read on the upper air wind pattern ahead of Isaac has just started they left from here in FL and are cruising over the bahamas. Hopefully this will help the models out.
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WeatherNut
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 412
Loc: Atlanta, GA 33.81N 84.34W
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I have been looking at the recon data so far and they have yet to see a west wind at all. This makes me think the vortex they sent is not the real one but that it is SW of their location. They are headed back in that direction so we shall see if this continues.
Also in the first vortex inside eye temp was lower than outside...it should be the other way around...
Looks like they found a 998 pressure further west, but still winds out of the E/ ENE. So I still think its south of them. Recon seems to be only sporadically reporting so not sure if there is a malfunction or not
Edited by WeatherNut (Thu Aug 23 2012 03:51 PM)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 339
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
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Just pulled this up...looking at visible satellite there is a tiny donut hole, not an eye near 15.5N 66.5W...that's following the south side of the envelope and again it's the that appears to have an excellent handle on this system thus far...
URNT12 KNHC 231834
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012
A. 23/17:51:40Z
B. 15 deg 39 min N
066 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1459 m
D. 22 kt
E. 335 deg 57 nm
F. 070 deg 21 kt
G. 332 deg 60 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 19 C / 1525 m
J. 18 C / 1527 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 13 / 8
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF300 0709A ISAAC OB 09
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 47 KT E QUAD 18:12:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C 339 / 49 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Sincerely,
Bill Berry
"To work in the service of life and the living..." - John Denver
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Here is the latest Recon:
URNT12 KNHC 232014
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012
A. 23/19:20:20Z
B. 15 deg 40 min N
066 deg 34 min W
C. 850 mb 1451 m
D. 35 kt
E. 036 deg 64 nm
F. 145 deg 29 kt
G. 036 deg 66 nm
H. 1004 mb
Its becoming obvious that the visual center and the low pressure center are not in sync - and given the poor organization, I'm not surprised.
ED
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doug
Weather Analyst
Reged: Mon
Posts: 773
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
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I just spent some extended time on the visible floater and it seems to me that this thing is a wave...a very sharp wave...i see a lot of nw-se motion on the west and sw to ne motion on the east a bit of e to w on the north but no w to e on the south...just saying...
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doug
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Quote:
...that's following the south side of the envelope and again it's the that appears to have an excellent handle on this system thus far
Sure does... trending further SW with every update and the others models are catching onto whatever the UK found before. Given Isaac's weak state moving N and surviving across 75% of Cuba seems kind of iffy. If that little blowup to NE is what the considers the center then this thing is a mess, as almost all the convention is displaced to the SW and pretty broken up. Isaac has a tough road of him given the terrain and general lack on organization. The elements for gaining steam are there, but it just ain't happening.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I've just spent a few minutes viewing the long range SanJuan,PR radar.
Here is my two cents. has the last Advisory center at 16.0N/ 67.1W. Using that point for a zoomed radar loop I find that the rotation is SW of that Center point.
I came up with 15.6N/ 68.0W as the radar zoomed Center of Rotation. This location is more consistent with a cyclonic circulation on radar.
These links are time sensitive.
16.0N/ 67.1 Zoom flash loop
Plymouth State SanJuan Radar zoom point
15.6N/ 68.0W center point zoom flash loop
SW Center point
The center points above are in the center of the radar frame of each loop.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Should have added this a bit earlier, but I've started a long term satellite recording of the RBTOP (new this year) floater for Isaac.
Long Term RBTOP Satellite Float of Isaac (2012) -- Alternate style
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danielw
Moderator
Reged: Wed
Posts: 3384
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
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I see that they have added animated gif's to the Floaters this year too. Nice add on. Loads a lot quicker.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Yeah I added it to the floater links on the main page (including the loop mousovers)
Floater Satellite Images:
Visible
(Loop),
IR
(Loop),
WV
(Loop),
Dvorak
(Loop),
AVN
(Loop),
RGB
(Loop),
Rainbow
(Loop),
Funktop
(Loop),
RB Top
Loop)
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k___g
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 107
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
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As I look at the latest WV Loop, it appears that Issac is becoming more organized in addition to being a very large system. Although the models currently seem to be in good agreement, that could change once a true COC is identified.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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This image generally describes what may be going on tonight, tomorrow does seem like the make or break day, but I think the 's track is generally good (including the cone, on both sides) The image really is an oversimplification, since there are probably more than just the two mentioned.
"Split" systems are notoriously mind numbing to track, many times they fall apart, rarely do they come together, however the water temps are very much in favor of it bucking the odds tomorrow afternoon especially (then or probably never if it crosses Haiti)
These are still "rotating" around a larger broad system as well.
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2779
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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There was a good good shift west with the 11PM advisory in the long term, and places it in the Central Gulf, but interestingly in the near term it shifted right (toward the keys).
There will likely be more adjustments to the track, thankfully intensity is kept low due to how Isaac is now, and the land interaction forecast, up until it gets into the Gulf, where it is forecast to reach hurricane strength.
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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I so agree with what was just said by Mike.
Got to tell you it's some real disconnect to see such a messy system, hear reports from the Recon plane in various mediums... including a Twitter feed that did not seem like they found a very impressive storm.
It has to traverse Haiti and Cuba and it's hard for me to say I see it until I see a little more from Isaac.
Also, hard to say what the true center is, even Recon didn't seem sure and sat imagery shows different pictures from what you hear in the media.
The 11 PM discussion is filled with more IFS than a bullet ridden body has bullets. Sorry, but only thing I could think of ... they left so many doors open to what it might not do as much as what it will do. Yet at the same time I get "bulletin' that tomorrow they expect it to be over Haiti.
"IF THE INNER CORE BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED...HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS IT
REMAINS OVER WATER. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS
WOULD HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION. "
I don't know. It's important to keep a rational head when dealing with a storm that has not yet developed for many reasons not to get into hyping the storm.
Mind you he could develop ...and the center that is being tracked could win out and be the real center and he could get over warmer water in the Florida Straits but... it's several days away and only AFTER Isaac makes a move more to the north with a well defined center will we know if people in Miami should be buying all the water off the shelf or not... stocking up or calmly watching advisories and coverage on TV.
Which is it?
I'm erring on the side of not hyping the storm but watching it cautiously... especially until we see it pull together and we see which model handled the storm better than the others.
Just my thought.
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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WesnWylie
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 155
Loc: 32.59N 96.70W
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Not to add to the confusion, but could the center possibly be reforming/consolidating within the large area of convection? The most intense convection is to the SW of the 's LLC, but it appears that this is where everything is beginning to consolidate. From what I see, the convection near the 's circulation has weakened and/or been pulled into the larger area of convection. I've attached the most recent (0415 UTC) infrared satellite image.
Edited by WesnWylie (Fri Aug 24 2012 12:57 AM)
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CoconutCandy
Weather Analyst
Reged: Fri
Posts: 237
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii 21.30N 157.83W
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Yes, 'Isaac' finally appears to be consolidating and quickly forming a substantial Central Dense Overcast (CDO), usually a harbinger of (sometimes rapid) strengthening. My surmise is that, now that the inner core convection is coalescing, we'll see some fairly substantial deepening right up until it begins interacting with land, whenever that might be. The longer it stays offshore and the slower it travels, the stronger it will become. I hazard to speculate that the center will be relocated some distance to the south with the next advisory, which may well jog the models around considerably.
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"Don't Get Stuck on Stupid" - General Honore, following Hurricane Katrina
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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hear you on that and am wondering the same thing Candy...
also though the storm as a whole looks to be moving WNW that area that looks like the center looks to be moving west..
very very confusing
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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mikethewreck
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
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Looking at the long term RGB (thanks Mike!) it is hard for me to see that the storm has made much of a move northward at all in the past day but rather has been driving westward down 15N like it is on a railroad track. Until the storm begins to move poleward it appears there is still uncertainty about where Isaac will go. The 0500 discussion from seemed to indicate their frustration with a storm that has a mind of its own. They're trying to fit what Isaac is doing into what they think he should do: "THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTHWARD IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS THEN BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE..." The models may be in agreement with each other but if Isaac isn't playing along then it's all academic. Looking at the model animation I'm not sure any of them has really had a good handle on this storm in the past couple of days.
What I haven't heard a lot of discussion here or from the is why Isaac keeps moving west. Maybe if we figure out why it's going west we can figure out when the storm will finally do what it is being predicted to do.
I am still wondering if the Cleo track (attached)-westward movement followed by a hard break to the north-is what will eventually happen.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
Edited by mikethewreck (Fri Aug 24 2012 06:40 AM)
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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With such poor vertical development, It will be interesting to see if Isaac even survives interaction with the mountains. It is a very shallow storm as it is. It is a little interesting how the Gulfstream IV data seemed to kick the models more east and scatter them. However, Isaac needs to organize better before that data really has a big effect on steering Isaac.
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Jim
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Quote:
...it is hard for me to see that the storm has made much of a move northward at all in the past day but rather has been driving westward down 15N like it is on a railroad track.
This has been my observation over the last few days too. Its almost like the was wishcasting the WNW motion, they claim that was the direction Isaac was going but the data suggested otherwise. Update #7 (5PM 8/22) had the center at 16.0 N... and guess what today's 8AM fix was? 16.0 N! I still think the true center is even further south (more like 15N), because that is where all the energy is. If the center isn't under the blob then the storm is going to take even longer to get itself going. Its got to happen at some point, but by then it could be on top of Jamaica! I still don't see how such a weak storm can survive crossing Cuba.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Some strengthening is occurring, best track has it up to the 55-60mph wind range. The north will eventually win out it seems, but it may be a compromise position around 15.8n. The does have the right idea here, I'm pretty sure the northwest "turn" will begin later today.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Not alot of time here but....I dont believe the has been a party of/to wishcasting. Yes the relocation of the COC has been an issue but this has been the case in the past. Wishcasting is one thing I don"t see out of the . This system and other factors have them "thinking" but the track record is pretty spot on. Give them a few to ingest more data and lets see.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Hawkeyewx
Weather Analyst
Reged: Sun
Posts: 53
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Isaac is definitely showing an increasingly aligned appearance this morning, so I would think some slow strengthening may occur today. The outflow to the south and west is really rocketing out of there.
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BayCoGator
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: NW Florida
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Quote:
Isaac is definitely showing an increasingly aligned appearance this morning, so I would think some slow strengthening may occur today. The outflow to the south and west is really rocketing out of there.
Agree, and it looks like he's shut off the dry air entrainment from the north side for the most part. That, combined with better vertical alignment should create a more favorable strengthening picture.
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
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Isaac appears to be wobbling north of west right now. I don't think its the beginning of the turn yet because of how sudden it appeared. The next few hours will certainly tell if it is just a wobble or if it is the beginning of a trend to the NW. Isaac's overall satallite presentation this morning is the best I think it has been.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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Rasvar
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 566
Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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With the dry side of the storm over Hispaniola, I wonder how much this will limit the effect of the topography on Isaac? It might have to be interaction with Cuba that will be a big factor as Isaac looks like it is finally starting to get better organized. I'm just watching intently at this point until he clears Cuba.
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Jim
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mikethewreck
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
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I'm thankful to MikeC for the long term satellite picture of Isaac. I still don't see a significant northward component of motion yet. I am trying to focus not on individual blobs but on the bulk of the circulation and it seems to still be dragging due west just north of South America. Looking at the images over and over again, there did appear to have been another rotation (again as MikeC alluded to earlier) east and a little south of the main body of the storm. It looks to me on the satellite image that the main "blob" of Isaac may be spinning off another vortex even as the first vortex appears to fade. Maybe these multiple vortices (as confirmed by previous aircraft observations) are what has been confusing the models in their efforts to predict the path of Isaac. I attached a recent (but not current) picture of Isaac labeled with the features that I wonder if they are multiple vortices.
I also recall Cuba is not nearly as harsh on crossing storms as Hispaniola is. If Isaac keeps pushing west, he may escape a brush with the high Haitian/Dominican mountains.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
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Isaac's dominant vortice is much easier to see on visible, RGB, and infared with no color enhancement.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-ir-long.html
You can see it heading WNW, possibly a little more sharply than before at about 16.2 N, 71.8 W.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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BayCoGator
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 16
Loc: NW Florida
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Quote:
Isaac's dominant vortice is much easier to see on visible, RGB, and infared with no color enhancement.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-ir-long.html
You can see it heading WNW, possibly a little more sharply than before at about 16.2 N, 71.8 W.
70.8 W? It looks like the deeper convection is beginning to wrap at that location as well. Finally settling on a center, or just another head-fake?
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
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Yes, I meant 70.8 at that time. Now it appears to be closer to 16.9 N, 71.0 W, so it definitely appears to be headed in a WNW fashion.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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A couple of quick observations.
The most recent pass through Isaac fixed the center at 15.6667N 70.4333W at 8:14 AM EDT.
The image below shows multiple snapshots from the entire Mission #10 into Isaac, and you can clearly see the progression of the Vorts consistently heading west-northwest to northwest, from an initial location still pretty well south of 's plotted "center".
With Isaac seeming to have become a little less sloppy today, and with nothing so far suggesting that Recon found any better "center" to hang their hats on, it might be worthwhile to continue to focus as much or more on the center fixes provided by recon, than the "center" extrapolations being used by , and thereby the model runs (which have consistently been generally north of HH fixes).
The 11 AM Advisory position has the center at 16.3N 70.8W. An extrapolation of Mission 10 center fixes would suggest the primary surface center at that time could have been much closer to 16.05N 70.9W, which doesn't sound like much, but with Isaac's center so close to mountainous terrain, even a couple dozen miles one direction or another can have significant influence on its actual future track and intensity, both modeled and verified.
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laurie66
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
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I live in Brevard county (East Central Florida) what can expect if anything from the storm? should I be finding someone to board up my home? Thanks in advance =)
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mikethewreck
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 46
Loc: Treasure Coast FL 27.60N 80.41W
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In general, it is best to heed the warnings of your county Emergency Management staff who get detailed information from the and provide specific guidance to people in their county based on the vulnerabilities they have already taken in to account in their analyses. I live just south of you in Indian River county and minutes ago I got an e-mail from my county emergency manager stating "heavy rain in squalls, gusty winds to 35 mph, and isolated tornadoes possible after Isaac crosses Cuba".
Most counties have text and/or e-mail lists you can sign up for that will keep you up to date of ANY weather emergency that comes up. It's better to get guidance from these official sources rather than us.
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Earliest memory Hurricane Cleo!
Went under Hurricane Gloria!
Edited by mikethewreck (Fri Aug 24 2012 01:22 PM)
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laurie66
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 5
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thank you for the information I am heading to their website now
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Marlinfan65
Registered User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2
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The LL COC has been clearly visible in the last few hours and is tracking NW.
Appears that the turn NW has occured and I would not put South East coast of Florida
out of danger yet. Isaac still is not very well organized, but convection is again trying to wrap around the COC.
Looks like the latest models shifting east may be on to something.
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 101
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Recon just found a pressure of 995mb just off the south tip of the DR. The storm looks to be deepening albeit convection is currently lacking however it looks to be on the up turn.
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cieldumort
Moderator
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1023
Loc: Texas 30.40N 97.80W
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Isaac has become much better established this afternoon, with a new Vort about to come out near 16.78N 71.38W, probably also suggesting that Isaac is now down to around 995mb, possibly with maximum sustained winds closer to 65 MPH.
This looks to be the most stacked we have seen Isaac so far, and do agree with him having had a general northwesterly movement for several hours now, although long-term mean averaging might lead to go with west-northwest-ish, for now.
Edit: Vort came out at 16.8N 71.5167W. Pressure 995mb.
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 24 2012 03:19 PM)
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Joeyfl
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 101
Loc: St.Pete,FL
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Interesting late afternoon discussion from Miami NWS. They point out the shift east in models and while this is only one model suite of significant east shift the threat to south florida looks to be increasing...
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CaneTrackerInSoFl
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 395
Loc: 25.63N 80.33W
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Latest vort just came out a little while ago. Pressure is down to 994 mbs, center at 16.9 N 71.7 W. Max flight level winds were at 70 knots or so in the east quadrant.
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Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005
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JMII
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 157
Loc: Margate, Florida 26.26N 80.22W
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Finally starting to look like a tropical system and also moving quickly off to NW as predicted, just took an extra 12 hours. It will be interesting to monitor tomorrow to see how land effects him. Watching the water vapor loop there is weak "channel" that appears to mirror the forecast cone pretty well as that front lifts out. Several pop-up type clouds are appearing in this area. The push that Isaac was getting from above which was limiting his northern movement seems to be weakening as well. At the same time he appears to be squished a bit, out flow is not as impressive and the center core appears to separated into small (but tighter) bits. This might create a temporary surge in strength and forward motion as Isaac rewraps some moisture around the true center - which has finally appeared N of the blob we all kept watching track west. My big question is still how the mountains will effect him... he seems to be cut off from his fuel source at the exact time he needed the most. Personally I wouldn't be surprised to see a weaker storm tomorrow AM.
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South FL Native... experienced:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Irene ('99) - Frances & Jeanne ('04) - Katrina & Wilma ('05)
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