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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 47 (Nate) , Major: 65 (Maria) Florida - Any: 75 (Irma) Major: 75 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2013 News Talkbacks

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #94702 - Thu Aug 15 2013 11:26 AM

Canceling recon just about says it all. I wouldn't say it's dead in the water but definitely not developing any time soon. I've always felt the timing was off with this system. The environment is not very favorable and surprisingly the Atlantic is friendlier suddenly than the caribbean. More on hold if or can wait out the negative conditions it might flare up in the BOC.

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic [Re: LoisCane]
      #94703 - Fri Aug 16 2013 12:46 AM

I think as a single tropical entity 92L is not likely going to develop any further; I don't think one can rule out the system splitting but as I posted yesterday on our Facebook page and given the upper air pattern in place over the US; you can't rule out a hybrid; you're right timing matters; take care!

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Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 943
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic [Re: berrywr]
      #94704 - Fri Aug 16 2013 09:03 AM

Re: the TO for this morning: it is a puzzle for me to understand the high degree of probability for development of this system based on the current environment. It must be cautionary because there is definitely a low level circulation in the GOM. However, it is under very dry air aloft which should supress otherise norma convective activity...it is a stretch for 50-60% IMO.

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doug


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic [Re: doug]
      #94705 - Fri Aug 16 2013 09:38 AM

I think that it is indeed a small dose of 'cautionary' and a large measure of 'continuity' from the earlier forecasts. The Gulf certainly has its reputation as a breeding ground for hybrid systems - and 92L could quickly fit into that category. Although the circulation is quite weak, convection has started to redevelop to the east of the center. Movement to the west = dry air; to the north, not so much.
ED


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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL 32.71N 85.23W
Re: Watching Waves in Caribbean and East Atlantic [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #94706 - Fri Aug 16 2013 02:52 PM

Ed, check out the RAMBIS page and visible imagery - the low level center is completely exposed and moving due west. I looked at the water vapor and as the models have been forecasting the upper level low to fill and be absorbed by the larger longwave trough which its axis is now extended as far south as Houston, TX. Last night, the GFS at 850 millibars took one piece of energy into the Northern Gulf Coast and the other west. There wasn't enough at 500 millibars for me to gauge anything moving west. 92L is likely too shallow for any of us to rely on the global models for the time being. The evolving longwave trough over the southern tier of the United States makes anything tropical approaching the US one unlikely and two, not likely to be pure tropical not with winds aloft in excess of 70 knots. A system moving west still could be absorbed by the main trough if it becomes more vertically deep otherwise, it has a date with the Mexican coast but not likely anything more than a weak storm. I was not aware of the page NHC mentioned in the discussion but I did look it up and here it is: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/tropical.asp

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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