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Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida Coasts
      #96253 - Sun Jun 05 2016 11:40 AM

1:15PM EDT 6 June 2016 Update


Colin barely qualifies as a Tropical Cyclone, with frontal-like features becoming increasingly obvious. This is not to say that the cyclone is without risks. Many times TCs transitioning to Post-Tropical actually become more intense during this phase. On the other hand, it is not yet clear that Colin won't still get its tropical act together, though not likely.

The big picture is one where the focus needs to be well removed from the center of "Colin" and his Cone of Uncertainty track, because the heavy weather is almost nowhere to be found there. Heavy rains, as well as squalls with gusts to perhaps as high as hurricane force, and maybe a few tornadoes, will continue pushing inland throughout the day until the feeder band now extending south-southwest from west central Florida into the northwest Caribbean has passed to the east of the state. This may take a while, with the southern half of the state probably still affected well into tomorrow, and maybe even into Wednesday.

- Ciel

6:00AM EDT 6 June 2016 Update

Colin remains a highly disorganized Tropical storm, but has managed to strengthen slightly overnight to 50MPH based on recon reports.



The rain shield will move over Florida later today. Parts of Florida have already received some outer rain bands from Colin. Threat of heavy rain and some short-lived isolated tornadoes does exist, but it will primarily just be a rain event for Florida.

11:00PM EDT 5 June 2016 Update
Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from Sebastian Inlet (Brevard/Indian River Line) to the Altamaha Sound in Georgia
and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South Carolina.


5:45PM EDT 5 June 2016 Update
Recon has found Tropical Storm force winds, and thus Tropical Depression 3 is Now Upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin. This is the earliest we have seen the 3rd named storm since official hurricane tracking began.

5PM EDT 5 June 2016 Update
Tropical Storm Watches are now up from Flagler to Altahama Sound, GA. The depression strengthened a bit, but recon has yet to find enough to call it a tropical storm. It is still forecast to become Tropical STorm Colin late tonight or tomorrow. IT should make landfall near the big bend Tomorrow afternoon. Flood watches remain up for Central and North Florida. Tropcial Storm warnings are also up for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

Original Update

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood as Tropical Depression 3 has formed.



Let us know what conditions are like in your area here.


More to come soon.

Flhurricane recording of Florida Radar (w/ track) approach of 93L

Buoy Camera off Yucaan for 93L (June 2016) 120 NM ESE of Cozumel, MX Recording
Flhurricane recording of Beach Palace hotel webcam in Cancun
Flhurricane recording of Colin approach to downtown Gulfport, FL
Flhurricane recording of Colin approach to S. Shore in Gulfport, FL

Other webcams near Cozumel/Cancun

Flhurricane Orlando weather cam (static image)
Flhurricane Orlando/Universal Webcam Ustream

Colin Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of Colin - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Colin


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float3latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Colin (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Colin (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Colin

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Colin
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Colin -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)



Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

Power Outage Maps: South Carolina Power Outage Map North Carolina Power Outage Map Virginia Power Outage Map

Tampa Area Media:

Bay News 9

WFLA News 8 (NBC)

Bay Action News (ABC)

WTSP Channel 10 (CBS)

My Fox Tampa Bay

WWSB ABC 7 Sarasota

Tampa Bay Times

Tampa Bay Online

Sarasota Herald Tribune

970 WFLA Tampa News/Talk Radio

News Media (East Central Florida):

Television:

Newspapers:

News Radio:

Check local media and officials when a storm is approaching your area.

Southwest Florida (Naples/Ft.Myers) Area Media:

WINK News 11 Fort Myers CBS

WBBH NBC 2 Fort Myers NBC

ABC 7 Naples ABC

FOX 4 Florida Cape Coral FOX

WFSX Fox 92.5 News Radio

WCCF News Radio 1580 Port Charlotte

News Press

Naples Daily News

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96254 - Sun Jun 05 2016 12:49 PM

A recon flight is on the way from Biloxi, MS, and should be in the storm around 1:45PM EDT. Some of the leading rain bands are approaching Naples and Tampa already, but most of it won't be around until tomorrow.

We're recording Florida radar until the storm passes at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?201



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Lamar-Plant City
Storm Tracker


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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96255 - Sun Jun 05 2016 12:56 PM

That looks very cool, Mike! Great radar look with the forecast track across it!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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Prospero
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96256 - Sun Jun 05 2016 12:57 PM

To me it appears there is rotation in the convection to the north and east of where the center is supposed to be:



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: Prospero]
      #96257 - Sun Jun 05 2016 01:07 PM

May be the mid-level circulation, either way Recon is fairly close to it, we'll find out soon enough. I suspect we may have Colin after Recon makes it through there.

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M.A.
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96261 - Sun Jun 05 2016 01:27 PM

On the last couple of images on the RGB it looks as though there is a circulation just off the tip of the Yucatan. Just slightly east of the forecasted location. I must say bravo to the forecast models. Almost all of them have been on this development for well over a week, and damn near nailed it. Seems like they have been getting more accurate over the past couple of years.

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typhoon_tip
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: M.A.]
      #96262 - Sun Jun 05 2016 02:00 PM

During the formation phases of the TC there are likely to be "whirls" that rotate around a common axis.

There may in fact also be a pesky shear layer that is helping to tilt the system off of a vertical structure.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Depression 3 Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #96264 - Sun Jun 05 2016 03:07 PM

Flood watch up for East Central Florida http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: typhoon_tip]
      #96265 - Sun Jun 05 2016 03:13 PM

At 05/18Z there is a well-formed mid level circulation - maybe even a reforming low level circulation - at 22.2N 86.8W...and indeed multi circulation centers are common - especially in Gulf of Mexico storms. Its probably not the last circulation center attempt that we will see with this system before one of them finally consolidates.
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jun 05 2016 06:03 PM)


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Steve H1
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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96280 - Sun Jun 05 2016 07:49 PM

Indeed. Looking at the latest visible images it is possible that we can have a re-location of the center NW of the western tip of Cuba as Ed pointed out. Still a broad circulation, but as the system tightens up the center may re-locate further to the east, which could shift the track slightly further east. But this is conjecture at this point. Either wat, much of the peninsula will get flooding rain.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96285 - Sun Jun 05 2016 09:36 PM

Latest band going through tampa is causing some power outages over there Outage Map.

Florida Power Outage Maps

Duke Energy Florida Outage Map - Most of Central and Northern Florida

Florida Power and Light Outage Map (Much of South Florida)

Orlando Utilities Commision Outage Map

Tampa Electric Outage Map

JEA (Jacksonville) Outage Map

Gulf Power (Western Panhandle)

Clay Electric Outage Map (Gainsville/ North Central Florida area)

Lakeland Electric Outage Map

Peace River Electrical Cooperative outage map south Central Florida from east of Bradenton, north of North Port to West of Palm Bay and Vero Beach


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96286 - Sun Jun 05 2016 09:50 PM

Very large convective blowups to the south of the center of Colin (over the Yucatan). Colin may not get too strong, but it's going to pump in moisture like crazy, with a few gusty spots that pop up that may surprise a few folks.

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LoisCane
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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96289 - Sun Jun 05 2016 10:34 PM

This is the main point that concerns me.

On one hand you have a very tight line cone from NHC. A pretty good cone, exacting.

On the other hand you have a very broad cyclonic circulation with one center stronger than the other possible centers.

This is classic June TS in the GOM, however many in Florida are new to tropical systems and many forget.

Tides on the W coast in Big Bend will run high, but not extremely high.

Winds will be minimal with the added threat of tornadoes.

Tornadoes can form far from the small narrow cone.

The weaker a disorganized system is the more complex it can be and the trouble it spawns hard to explain in a basic forecast.

I highlighted Steinhatchee in the blog this morning. That region is prone to river flooding inland, yet this is a weak system. Small river towns and parks, fields of citrus trees and not what most people think of when they hear "Florida"

Yet this is a huge area of messy weather.

Still a lot of ifs here and waiting on next model run that should have data from flights today.

Models did a great job of sniffing this out.

Thinking this is an easy job for the NHC and a harder job for the NWS on a local level.

Interesting. Good discussion here appreciate it.

--------------------
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: LoisCane]
      #96312 - Mon Jun 06 2016 12:09 PM

Interesting Note: Tropical Storm Andrea in 2013 was the last Tropical Storm to make landfall in Florida, and it did so also on June 6th in the afternoon.


Radar from that: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?153

Radar from colin: http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?201

Andrea article: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=94345&an=0&page=0#94345



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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96315 - Mon Jun 06 2016 12:54 PM

Highest wind report I've seen so far is 66MPH 58knot from the Buoy off Venice, FL : http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

The Sunshine Skyway bridge is also shut down while the winds are up.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96319 - Mon Jun 06 2016 02:56 PM

Recon just found a 69mph wind on the east side of the system, not too far offshore from Clearwater.

Tornado warning for Collier county, also.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96322 - Mon Jun 06 2016 04:15 PM

At 06/1945Z, Recon center fix at 28.7N 85.6W with max flight level wind of 49 knots and central pressure of 1003MB - and as noted by Mike:

MAX FL WIND 63 KT 124 / 163 NM 18:38:00Z CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 095 / 8 KT
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 06 2016 04:25 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #96325 - Mon Jun 06 2016 06:05 PM

Rain and wind now affecting Ga/SC and Eastern North Carolina. With Tropical Storm Warnings all the way up there. Rain still coming in on the west coast but it is starting to tapir off.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Colin Forms in Southern Gulf TS Warnings up for Florida West Coast [Re: MikeC]
      #96338 - Tue Jun 07 2016 12:09 AM

As Colin makes landfall north of Cedar Key there has been quite a convective flareup just to the east of the center. It certainly looks a little stronger as it heads toward the Atlantic.
ED


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