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General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98063 - Fri Sep 01 2017 09:03 PM

A look at other seasons with the same name list during the 1995-? 'Active Era' Vs 2017



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98064 - Fri Sep 01 2017 09:34 PM

A look at other seasons with the same name list during the 1995-? 'Active Era' Vs 2017



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98083 - Sun Sep 03 2017 12:48 PM

A look at the Kaplan based AMO indexes for the above years vs current (1999, 2005 and 2012 vs 2017), and then also 2017 compared to the recent low activity years of 2013, 2014 and 2015. Months span from January through July (as August 2017 is not yet updated).



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98332 - Wed Sep 06 2017 07:22 AM

With the formation of Tropical Storm Katia, 2017 becomes one of now 7 years with 11 Named Storms by September 6 in the Atlantic basin. The other years being 1933, 1936, 1995, 2005, 2011 and 2012, all of which were active (1936, 2011) to hyperactive (1933, 1995, 2005 and 2012).

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98402 - Wed Sep 06 2017 06:50 PM

Six Atlantic Hurricanes have formed from Aug 7th to Sep 6th - Tied with 1893 1893 was likely a hyperactive year with 10 Hurricanes of which 5 became Majors

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98404 - Wed Sep 06 2017 07:30 PM




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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98493 - Thu Sep 07 2017 04:03 PM



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98567 - Fri Sep 08 2017 01:45 AM Attachment (33 downloads)

Six hourly ACE record in the Atlantic on 9/7. Added as an attachment as image correction is not loading.

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 08 2017 06:01 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98618 - Fri Sep 08 2017 05:55 PM



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98834 - Sun Sep 10 2017 02:51 PM



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98889 - Mon Sep 11 2017 02:26 PM

1899 Atlantic hurricane season featured the longest-lasting tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin on record. 1933 Atlantic hurricane season was the second most active Atlantic hurricane season on record.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98903 - Wed Sep 13 2017 11:12 PM



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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98963 - Mon Sep 18 2017 04:53 PM

According to Dr. Klotzbach, as of early afternoon on Sep 18th, the N Atlantic basin had generated more ACE to date this season than in any full Atlantic season since 2010 - thus even surpassing the active 2011 and 2012 seasons, to the end of their respective years.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98970 - Mon Sep 18 2017 08:26 PM

Maria is now a Cat Five, the second of 2017.

Only five other years on record in the Atlantic basin have had two Cat 5s: 1932, 1933, 1961, 2005 & 2007


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #98999 - Wed Sep 20 2017 03:22 PM

Within the past month
THREE Cat 4 US Landfalls ...
After 4,324 days without as much as a Cat 3.


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #99000 - Wed Sep 20 2017 06:24 PM

2017: HYPERACTIVE

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DarlynDeville
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: cieldumort]
      #99001 - Wed Sep 20 2017 07:01 PM

Quote:

"Did I see an invest near 50W & 20N today.? (many apologies if incorrect place to post)"




There is an 'Invest' at that location, actually the remnants of Lee. Its chances for regeneration within the next few days are rather low. NHC has reduced their odds from 70% to 30%. If it gets interesting, we will certainly be discussing it again - at least in the Lounge: Lee Lounge . Feel free to add any additional "Invest Lee" related questions or comments there - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 22 2017 01:19 AM)


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DarlynDeville
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Re: 2017: 'Active Era' + Busy Season? [Re: DarlynDeville]
      #99003 - Wed Sep 20 2017 08:35 PM

Thank you so much!!

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE [Re: cieldumort]
      #99004 - Wed Sep 20 2017 09:34 PM



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craigm
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Re: 2017: HYPERACTIVE [Re: cieldumort]
      #99006 - Thu Sep 21 2017 08:56 AM

What's interesting about this year is what it portends for the 2018 season.The ENSO neutral condition's we're experiencing now have contributed to the lower shear environment across the basin. With this knowledge it's worth mentioning the La Nina forecast for this winter and potentially what could carry over into next season. I have linked the latest La Nina forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

If this forecast pans out we could see this hyperactivity for the duration of this event. La Nina cycles can last up to two years. For readers who are not aware of the effect of La Nina on Hurricane activity in the Atlantic I offer this:

'Dr. William Gray at the Colorado State University pioneered research efforts leading to the discovery of La Niña impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity, and to the first operational long-range forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. According to this research, the chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience hurricane activity increases substantially during La Niña.'

As to the rapid intensification of these storms this year I will have to let someone more knowledgeable speculate on that.

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Frances,Jeanne,Wilma,worked on Andrew damage


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