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System riding coast of South Carolina has a 20% chance for development, likely just rain though.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 36 (Barry) , Major: 312 (Michael) Florida - Any: 312 (Michael) Major: 312 (Michael)
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News Talkback >> 2019 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L)
      #99984 - Sun Jul 28 2019 03:30 PM

The 2PM Outlook shows a 20% chance for development in the system in the east Atlantic later this week as it moves toward Hispaniola and later the Bahamas,there is several days to watch as the system develop, which isn't expected until it gets north of the Caribbean islands. This system is being tracked as invest 95L.


It will most likely stay east of Florida, but the forecasting models seem to behind the curve on the current state of this system, so it's wise to monitor it closely. See the forecast lounge for more speculation on this system. The overall pattern suggests any systems that develop in early August will likely curve away from the US.


Invest 97L Event Related Links

Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of of 97 - New for 2018


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 97


stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


float4latest.gif
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 97 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 97 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 97

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 97
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 97 -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 17 2019 08:01 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99985 - Sun Jul 28 2019 04:34 PM

Caribbean radar mosaic recording:

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?455


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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 312
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99986 - Mon Jul 29 2019 11:34 AM

Gulfstream IV is sampling eastern Gulf and heading across middle of the State
right now. Helpful Data when or if 95 develops.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 312
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99987 - Tue Jul 30 2019 10:51 AM

Convection North of Puerto Rico looking very healthy this morning although the system appears severely tilted to the NE with the broad vorticity center headed off to the southern coast of Hispaniola. Hard to tell, from Satellite if there is any low level spin under the convective blob. Next 24 hours should tell a lot. Shear decreasing closer to the Bahamas.

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craigm
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 312
Loc: Palm City, Florida
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: craigm]
      #99988 - Tue Jul 30 2019 11:37 AM

Maybe upgraded at the 2 o'clock. Just pulled this off of South Florida Water Management site: Unless I'm reading this wrong.

Tue Jul 30 11:04:20 EDT 2019

WTNT80 EGRR 300355

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.07.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 69.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2019 13.5N 69.5W WEAK
12UTC 30.07.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

Looks like I called that one wrong

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Edited by craigm (Tue Jul 30 2019 01:59 PM)


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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 151
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: craigm]
      #99989 - Wed Jul 31 2019 08:33 AM

Eh. I think sometimes TD is used instead of tropical disturbance.

Hopefully the wave off of Africa will blow. About time for the CV season to kick off.


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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4162
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99994 - Fri Aug 02 2019 01:38 PM

set up a recording for the area (A surface trough) Northwest Of Key West. http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?456

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Doombot!
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 151
Loc: Lakeland, Fl.
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: MikeC]
      #99995 - Sat Aug 03 2019 04:55 AM

Wow, you made it dissappear!

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dolfinatic
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 124
Loc: St. Petersburg, Fl
Re: Watching an Area in the East Caribbean (95L) [Re: Doombot!]
      #100006 - Thu Aug 08 2019 07:43 PM

www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-increases-chance-for-above-normal-hurricane-season NOAA declared El Nino is over. Predicting now that a above normal season for rest of season.

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