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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumortModerator
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Hurricane Dorian Lounge
      #100050 - Fri Aug 23 2019 02:32 PM



Low pressure has formed in association with a vigorous tropical wave located about 1,300 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. This Low is now being tracked as Invest 99L, with an updated bid from NHC of 50% odds of development within 5 days, and this could be conservative. Provided it pulls it together before entering the Graveyard, which looks increasingly possible if not likely, the Antilles may be at risk of significant impacts.

Models suggest strong High Pressure building in to its north should keep it on a general west-northwest course, and at the longer range this could put the southern U.S. in play. This one needs to be watched closely for land impacts from the Antilles and points west and northwest from there.

FIVE has become a Tropical Storm, Dorian, and the title has been updated accordingly today, Sat 8/24/19
8/28/19 Dorian is now a Hurricane
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 28 2019 02:25 PM)


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Mike V
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100055 - Sat Aug 24 2019 10:46 AM

It's official, now TD5

723
WTNT35 KNHC 241442
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 47.9W
ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Five was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude
47.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph
(19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today.
A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central
Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or
on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100057 - Sat Aug 24 2019 09:26 PM

Ok models have been pretty bad this year so far, not even predicting Dorian a few days ago. But now we have a tropical Storm that could potentially impact land as a hurricane, including the eastern Caribbean, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, and beyond. The caveat it's still early, and the East Caribbean is where things may fall apart.

ensembles do show us needing to watch in Florida, as well as Puerto Rico, East Caribbean and Hispaniola over time. Although nothing is set in stone currently, so we'll monitor it closely over the next several days.

If the GEFS timing were to verify, it would be near Florida on Sunday Sep 1 into Monday Sep 2nd.


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100061 - Sun Aug 25 2019 09:48 AM

Labor Day weekend if that verified. Early last evening both EURO and GFS models were in the same area at the 10 day or 240 hour forecast point... somewhere along the Florida Peninsula.

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100062 - Sun Aug 25 2019 01:15 PM

Everyone is waiting for the "models" to tell us.......Okay so enter something in the models, so they tell us something, its just monkeys putting numbers, in a computer alga rhythm, and hitting go.

Nature and National geographic documentary also great they show a fancy graphic and call it a model, It shows them how the tornado works,,, and people watching think the computer figured it out, but it was the observer just entering data set, and making a beautiful Hollywood quality graphic for people to watch..


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100063 - Sun Aug 25 2019 01:22 PM

if this thing goes major quick, before it reaches eastern carribean its going to be a big problem for everyone, especially Florida and the Carolinas, based on climatology alone, and some interesting upper features, a bit of basic math,navigation skills, ups and downs, timing, with no model support to look at.



Edited by Robert (Sun Aug 25 2019 02:15 PM)


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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100064 - Sun Aug 25 2019 02:59 PM

Lots of shear over the system presently. No rapid intensification should occur. The models are merely telling us to be prepared by indicating a Florida threat in the long term.. this is catching the eye of some smart experienced folks. I am paying attention

--------------------
doug


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100065 - Sun Aug 25 2019 03:59 PM

Looks like the high altitude flight departs tonight at 7pm, and first recon, departs, at 8pm, should have a better idea by this time tomorrow, hopefully the data will go into 12Z runs for the morning.
Bet we see better agreement in the short term, also a swing north sooner Puerto rico perhaps,

Edited by Robert (Sun Aug 25 2019 04:04 PM)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: danielw]
      #100066 - Sun Aug 25 2019 04:35 PM

It is worth being cautious and keeping a keen eye on Dorian.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100069 - Mon Aug 26 2019 07:40 AM

6z GFS keeps the system weak n of the Caribbean because an upper low forms in it. takes the remnants over Miami midday Sunday.

0z Euro with a landfall near Sewall's point (Stuart), FL Siunday afternoon. Weak system.

0z NavGem Cat 1 landfall near Miami Sunday afternoon.

0z Canadian takes it over Cuba.

0z German Icon takes it over the Keys on Sunday.

0z HWRF develops cat 1 hurricane in the SE Bahamas at the end of its run.

NOAA's new HAFS model takes .it in just south of Vero later Sunday as a hurricane.

0z UKMET takes it over PR then west through the Florida Straits into the Gulf where the run ends.


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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100070 - Mon Aug 26 2019 08:45 AM

Dry air is entering in the NW quadrant and moist air entering is impeded from the south by dry air also. This is inhibiting size and strength. There also is a bit of southerly shear which is common in the area where it is now moving through. It appears the dry air will move along with it and keep it modest at the worst.

--------------------
doug


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100071 - Mon Aug 26 2019 10:07 AM

These small storms are always tricky as the models have trouble getting a handle on them. Its a well organized little thing but in an environment that isn't super favorable. It could just run out of steam and disappear or continue to chug along then suddenly spring to life later.

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100072 - Mon Aug 26 2019 11:49 AM Attachment (111 downloads)

Attached sat photo of dorian compare next post.

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100073 - Mon Aug 26 2019 11:51 AM Attachment (117 downloads)

Andrew back in the day, upper feature over near bermuda, a low frontal trough that tried to become a depression off florida

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100074 - Mon Aug 26 2019 11:54 AM Attachment (130 downloads)

Attached Water vapor of Dorien to compare next post.

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100075 - Mon Aug 26 2019 11:55 AM Attachment (135 downloads)

Water vapor of Andrew back in the day

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Lautermilch
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100077 - Mon Aug 26 2019 12:51 PM

I was working at a computer company in Davie and on Friday August 21st I was 'reamed' for suggesting right before 6:00PM that we should be prepared to come in over the weekend and use trashbags to wrap equipment and other precautions. Everyone said that Andrew was not a threat of any kind and I was being a pessimist.

You never know. . . .


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Mike V
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100078 - Mon Aug 26 2019 01:05 PM

That is an interesting comparison Robert, lets just hope history does not repeat itself. I can't handle another Andrew. Once was enough.

--------------------
Donna, Betsy, Cleo, George, Floyd, David, ANDREW (Eye wall adventure), Wilma, Katrina, Irma


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Kraig
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100079 - Mon Aug 26 2019 01:21 PM

Interesting, but also Andrew stayed well north of the islands and didn't have to deal with any terrain.

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100080 - Mon Aug 26 2019 02:50 PM

Quote:

Interesting, but also Andrew stayed well north of the islands and didn't have to deal with any terrain.




Correct. Plus when it comes to 'canes historical data means little given the dynamics of the current localized environment.

Still good info and its always worth checking past history for trends or long term patterns.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100082 - Mon Aug 26 2019 05:14 PM

5PM update contains this little gem from the NHC:

"The intensity forecast remains something of an enigma."

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100083 - Mon Aug 26 2019 08:14 PM

Model summary tonight (18 or 12 z)

18Z GFS: Landfall in Central Hispaniola, weak TS. Then basically falls apart over the islands. Remnants do make it to the Central Bahamas, and start to recover on Saturday. Weak wave landfalls near Melbourne overnight Late Saturday/Early Sunday.

12Z Euro, skims or just east of the Dominican Republic on Thursday, Over Elutheria Island in the Bahamas on Saturday, Landfall near Melbourne, FL midday on Sunday TS. Then stalls out near Lake City, FL

18Z Legacy GFS skims the Eastern Side of the Dominican Republic on Thursday morning. Over Eluthera Island in the Bahamas late Friday night/Early Saturday as a Cat 2. Cat 2 landfall near Melbourne, FL on late Saturday night

12Z CMC moves over Hispaniola, Moves over Keys as a Strong Tropical Storm Sunday morning. Then Cat 2 landfall near LA/MS border on Wed Sep 4th.

18Z navgem moves over PR as a TS, then landfall Cat 2 Hurricane near West Palm Beach Sunday afternoon.

12Z ICON , skirts along N Coast of Cuba.

18Z HWRF decouples near PR, falls apart on Wednesday. Attempts to recover, ends run as a strong TS near the western Bahamas Saturday night.

18Z HMON Falls apart south of Puerto Rico, remains weak wave all the way to just south of Key West on Saturday night.

12Z UKMet landfall near Miami late Saturday afternoon as a Cat 2 hurricane.

Mixed, mostly weak. A lot depends on how Dorian does on Wednesday.


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100085 - Mon Aug 26 2019 09:19 PM Attachment (35 downloads)

I was thinking the east Caribbean would be a good spot for sudden strengthening.
I remember the waves late July and early that august passed through here on the 28th and then another 4th-5th that went through the eastern Caribbean, it blew up for a day as it crossed through eastern Caribbean. the same area Dorian is about to pas through, much like the area around the Bahamas, this may be one of those spots, in fact the forecast track seems to have been a sweet spot or area of focus this year will be closely watching tomorrow.

I really think the Aug 4-5th storm could have been a weak storm if only for a day. attached is a sat of that wave from early august. in next post will be the avn I have of it ,....then the July 28th wave.
also I wont post sat photo but I have them of a TD#3 and a wave on 25 the moving through the area, and another that followed same route on the 14th. All did well comparatively.to anything going on around at the time.

Edited by Robert (Mon Aug 26 2019 09:31 PM)


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100086 - Mon Aug 26 2019 09:21 PM Attachment (64 downloads)

A avn shot of aug 5th wave

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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100087 - Mon Aug 26 2019 09:22 PM Attachment (58 downloads)

July 28th wave

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100089 - Tue Aug 27 2019 03:47 AM

Complicated forecast, and especially low confidence beyond 48 hours.

There are several ways for Dorian to become shredded, aided, impaired, repaired, or any combination thereof, by dual upper-level lows ahead. But that isn't all. As can be seen in the image below (From the Weathernerds.org site), the ECMWF and GFS members all more or less thread the needle of PR and Hispaniola, leaving precious little room for error.
Quote:


Hispaniola is the second-largest island in the Caribbean (after Cuba), with an area of 76,192 square kilometers (29,418 sq mi), 48,440 square kilometers...

The island has five major ranges of mountains: The Central Range, known in the Dominican Republic as the Cordillera Central, spans the central part of the island, extending from the south coast of the Dominican Republic into northwestern Haiti, where it is known as the Massif du Nord. This mountain range boasts the highest peak in the Antilles, Pico Duarte at 3,098 meters (10,164 ft) above sea level. The Cordillera Septentrional runs parallel to the Central Range across the northern end of the Dominican Republic, extending into the Atlantic Ocean as the Samaná Peninsula. The Cordillera Central and Cordillera Septentrional are separated by the lowlands of the Cibao Valley and the Atlantic coastal plains, which extend westward into Haiti as the Plaine du Nord (Northern Plain). The lowest of the ranges is the Cordillera Oriental, in the eastern part of the country.

The Sierra de Neiba rises in the southwest of the Dominican Republic, and continues northwest into Haiti, parallel to the Cordillera Central, as the Montagnes Noires, Chaîne des Matheux and the Montagnes du Trou d'Eau. The Plateau Central lies between the Massif du Nord and the Montagnes Noires, and the Plaine de l‘Artibonite lies between the Montagnes Noires and the Chaîne des Matheux, opening westward toward the Gulf of Gonâve, the largest gulf of the Antilles.

The southern range begins in the southwestern most Dominican Republic as the Sierra de Bahoruco, and extends west into Haiti as the Massif de la Selle and the Massif de la Hotte, which form the mountainous spine of Haiti’s southern peninsula. Pic de la Selle is the highest peak in the southern range, the third highest peak in the Antilles and consequently the highest point in Haiti, at 2,680 meters (8,790 ft) above sea level. (Wikipedia)



Needless to say, Hispaniola is notorious for interfering with tropical cyclones. And forecasts.



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craigm
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100090 - Tue Aug 27 2019 05:07 AM

Quote:

July 28th wave



Robert do these attachments compare climatologically, I.e. wind shear, dry air, upper level winds, etc. with Dorian?

--------------------
Why I'm here:
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: craigm]
      #100091 - Tue Aug 27 2019 07:24 AM

Morning model roundup either 6z or 0z depending on the model:

6Z GFS:: Cuts over Hispaniola Thursday, clear of the Caribbean Thursday evening. Starts getting reorganized over the Central Bahamas on Saturday morning. Melbourne Landfall Sunday morning, Strong Tropical Storm. Does not reenter Gulf.

0Z Euro Clips eastern edge of Hispaniola midday Thursday, clear by the evening. Melbourne Landfall Sunday afternoon, Strong Tropical Storm. Does not reenter Gulf.

6z Legacy GFS - Landfall Puerto Rico late Wednesday afternoon, Clears the Caribbean overnight into Thursday. Strengthens to Hurricane just NE of the Turks and Caicos Thursday night. Cat 2 hurricane over Great Abaco island in the Bahamas Saturday afternoon. Landfall Melbourne, FL midday Sunday as a strong Cat 2 hurricane. Does not reenter Gulf.

0z CMC - slips through Mona passage Thursday morning, Cat 1 hurricane near Great Abaco midday Saturday. Landfall near Ft. Pierce Sunday morning as a cat 1/2 hurricane. Enters Gulf just north of Tampa late Sunday night, weak cat 1/strong TS another landfall near Carabelle, FL late Monday night.

0z NAVGEM - Clips Western side of Puerto Rico as a TS, landfall Cat 2 hurricane near Ft. Lauderdale late Sunday night. Exits into the Gulf near Sarasota by Monday night. Run ends there in the Gulf as a Cat 1.

0z Icon takes it over the eastern side of PR as a tropical Storm. Then dives it back into Cuba, end of run is a cat 1 between the Yucatan and Cuba. The 6z run of the same model keeps it in the Central Bahamas, but the run ends there.

0z HWRF takes it right over Hispaniola, it eventually recovers near the NW Bahamas, landfall strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane Melbourne, FL late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Run ends over Orlando.

0z HMON Takes it way west toward the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, then winds up with a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane southwest of Andros island.

0z UKMET Takes Dorian as a Tropical Storm over the eastern side of Puerto Rico Wednesday evening. Forms into a Cat 2 hurricane near Cat Island in the Bahamas, Landfall Cat 2 hurricane near Ft. Lauderdale late Sunday night. Run ends just east of Ft. Myers inland.

experimental HAFS morning run, strengthens the system east of the Bahamas, approaches E. Central Florida Monday where it explodes into a cat 4 almost 5 hurricane where the run ends east of Melbourne.



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SC Bill
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100092 - Tue Aug 27 2019 09:32 AM

Sorry, stupid question. What is the "experimental HALF" model? Thanks!

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: SC Bill]
      #100093 - Tue Aug 27 2019 09:52 AM

It's HAFS, (my mistake) http://www.hfip.org/hafs/

It's a work in progress model under development based on the newer FV3 GFS by NOAA, similar to HWRF and HMON (Which still use the old GFS). It being an outlier to that degree means it's extremely unlikely, but if it somehow winds up being right or close to right then it means it was on to something.

Really it just highlights the uncertainty that the NHC is talking about post Caribbean, it's more likely to fall apart.


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SC Bill
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100094 - Tue Aug 27 2019 10:22 AM

Thanks!!

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100096 - Tue Aug 27 2019 10:53 AM

With the HAFS blowing up a Cat 4/5 and the rest of the models generally strong TS to Cat 2 at best, it really looks like a case of the HAFS, and the HAFS nots.

I like using the experimental models for just the reason Mike mentioned above - they can - (keyword, can) sometimes catch on to something that the older models miss, perhaps owing to years of bias forming algos, if nothing else, but from there it takes further analysis to tease out if there really is anything to it. My hunch is that the HAFS is not entirely out to lunch, but remains a 'low probability, high impact' forecast until we have a much better understanding of Dorian's track around Hispaniola. The HAFS takes it around Hispaniola altogether, in fact, so east that it crosses eastern PR, which is a big if.

An edit to the above - the most recent and current recon mission into Dorian is not finding the cyclone in great shape, which heaps a great deal of doubt on the very bullish and northbound forecasts of the HAFS. In fact, if current trends were to continue today, it might be worth paying attention to model runs that take Dorian over or even south of Hispaniola. The eastern Caribbean can be pretty unforgiving.
Quote:

1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019
Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.




Edited by cieldumort (Tue Aug 27 2019 11:31 AM)


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100097 - Tue Aug 27 2019 11:01 AM

Quote:

Complicated forecast, and especially low confidence beyond 48 hours.

There are several ways for Dorian to become shredded, aided, impaired, repaired, or any combination thereof, by dual upper-level lows ahead.




Haven't heard much talk about the ridge or high building ahead of it. As with most FL storms a weak high combined with a strong storm equals more northern motion. On the flip side a weak storm (which looks likely) plus a strong high will generate westward motion.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Robert
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100098 - Tue Aug 27 2019 12:12 PM

Watch the caribbean radar recording, Dorian has gone through a center reformation to the northwest under the deep convection on sattelite ,and appears to have formed an eye wall on radar and may be doing a concentric cycle.
The high pressure is still forecast to move off the eastern seaboard this weekend capturing Dorian and then the axis of the ridge will pass over him, forcing him west underneath, the timing how Dorian interacts with that ridge will dictate how far west he gets, the ridge will be out of here by wednesday and whatever is recurving north, if dorian moves slower it may only graze the east coast of florida and be a big problem for bahamas, and then the carolinas. If it maintains its course and trajectory it may well end up in the gulf before re curving. It really comes down to the upper lows shear pockets, dry air intensity questions, land.

Edited by Robert (Tue Aug 27 2019 12:52 PM)


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100099 - Tue Aug 27 2019 12:31 PM

I generally agree with Robert's analysis above. This is an unsettling development. It appears that the track over St. Lucia weakened the old center to the point that Dorian has jumped into the healthier convection. This ramps up the timetables for all models, and puts the bullish runs back in play, including the HALFS.

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100100 - Tue Aug 27 2019 12:40 PM

Quote:

Watch the caribbean radar recording, Dorian has gone through a center reformation to the northwest under the deep convection on sattelite ,and appears to have formed an eye wall on radar and may be doing a concentric cycle.




Looks much better this AM with improved outflow. Seems to have sucked in some dry air. Having your typical TS fluctuations. Blew up then sputtered, now regaining some energy but not as circular. Currently there is a pocket of dry air over PR that may limit strengthening.

--------------------
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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100101 - Tue Aug 27 2019 01:27 PM

Recon has confirmed center reformation. Dorian was just fixed at 14.82N 61.66W, or roughly 100km NNW of the old center. Dorian is still formative, and given the many challenges that wait ahead, additional center reformations are possible. However, as of now, this center looks to be holding, and places the track squarely in the easternmost models and ensembles, increasing the odds that the cyclone avoids disruption over Hispaniola.



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IsoFlame
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100102 - Tue Aug 27 2019 03:25 PM

Has a "pacman" look on the south flank (facing Venezuela) from either the jump or ingesting dry air:
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/...R-2000x2000.jpg
Watch for a convective pulse to fill that void..

Edited by IsoFlame (Tue Aug 27 2019 03:31 PM)


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100103 - Tue Aug 27 2019 05:17 PM

For a storm that was forecast to go visit Haiti it now looks like PR is in the cross-hairs.
Its been trending east of guidance combined with reformation to the N which has thrown several of the models off. The upper level low is stronger then I thought and moving into in Dorian's path. The NHC has things staying at TS levels all the way to FL now.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: SC Bill]
      #100104 - Tue Aug 27 2019 08:13 PM

Evening Model summary after an interesting day. 18Z or 12Z depending on the exact model GFS 18Z initialization is suspect, so I'd want to confirm with another run.

12Z Euro, clips western edge of Puerto Rico, misses Hispaniola. Cat 1 landfall near Melbourne, FL Midday Sunday.
18Z GFS : . Goes over the center of Puerto Rico, Slows down near Florida, veers north landfall Savannah, GA as a cat 2/3 hurricane then rides just inland out of Wilmington, North Carolina
18Z Legacy GFS, Over Puerto Rico, becomes cat 4 hurricane just offshore of Cape Canaveral Early Tuesday morning, never makes landfall follows offshore coastline and exits into the Atlantic SE of Cape Hatteras.
12Z CMC Cat 2 landfall near Melbourne, FL Midday Sunday, briefly over the Gulf before a second landfall near Carabelle, FL.
18Z NAVGEM, slower, end run as a cat two over Grand Bahama midday Monday. (12z hand a landfall near Key Largo Early Monday)
18Z ICON Cat 2/3 Landfall near Delray Beach Midday Sunday
18Z HWRF ends run east of St. Augustine as a borderline cat 3/4 hurricane. (12z had a landfall at New Smyrna Beach)
18Z HMON, Cat 2 landfall near Melbourne, FL Midday Sunday.
12Z UKMET Approaching West Palm beach when run ends Monday morning, Cat 2/3 hurricane. (Prior run had it over land on Sunday)

Overall All of Florida and parts of the southeast need to watch, the cone is still good. GFS I think is too far north this run and wasn't initialized properly, or it's having issues with TD#6 and the ridging. The trend toward stronger storms is troubling. Interestingly the majority of the ensemble GFS members still landfall in Florida and all of the 18Z Euro Ensemble models are into or just off Florida.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100107 - Tue Aug 27 2019 11:49 PM

Some of the 0z models:

0z Icon: Clips eastern side of Puerto Rico.. Delray Beach, FL Landfall as a cat 2 hurricane early Monday Morning.
0z GFS: Goes over eastern side of PR (Shift east) then a bit stronger than the last run and a little east out to 60 hours. Stays east of Florida and slows down, slips north offshore of GA/SC on Monday Afternoon. Skirts Outer banks as a cat 3 sep 4th.
0z Legacy GFS: similar to GFS up to 54 hours. Monday morning offshore of Cape Canaveral and north of Grand Bahama Cat 2.
0z Ukmet Ends run monday near Grand Bahama as a Cat 2/3 hurricane moving slowly west southwest.
0z Euro- Landfall near Stuart, FL Sunday Night Cat 2/3, then exits Florida by Clearwater, still as a Cat 2 hurricane, second landfall in the Big Bend, south of Perry, FL early Wednesday morning. Cat 2, the into the Atlantic by Myrtle Beach, SC as a Tropical Storm late Thursday morning.








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Doombot!
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100109 - Wed Aug 28 2019 02:23 AM

Having trouble with the 00 and 06Z runs. They are trending towards a recurve, but punching up through a 1020+ MB pressure. Meanwhile the models are trending towards a stronger, deeper storm that, in theory, would be ridged harder west by high pressure.

That said, the key as always this time of year, is the strength of the Bermuda high. Any word on upcoming Gulfstream sampling missions?


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Joeyfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100110 - Wed Aug 28 2019 04:11 AM

Models really split on long term track GFS now showing hard recurve towards Carolinas, with European a bit further south then its last run with landfall near Fort Pierce FL crosses state into gulf just south of Tampa with second landfall in lower big bend FL. Both showing powerful major hurricane. The folks over at GWO which have been very accurate over past many years including Irma and Michael say FL landfall with secondary landfall possibly also in FL as a major.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Joeyfl]
      #100111 - Wed Aug 28 2019 06:42 AM

6z (More 0z) Roundup
0z Euro- Landfall near Stuart, FL Sunday Night Cat 2/3, then exits Florida by Clearwater, still as a Cat 2 hurricane, second landfall in the Big Bend, south of Perry, FL early Wednesday morning. Cat 2, the into the Atlantic by Myrtle Beach, SC as a Tropical Storm late Thursday morning. (Shift south from prior Run) (Shift south from prior Run, but prior run was way north of earlier runs)
6z GFS Cat 3 Landfall near Charleston, SC (Shift south from prior 0z Run) then rides coastline just inland up to Hatteras as a Cat 2.
0z CMC Cat 2 landfall near Stuart, Fl Late Monday night then rides up spine of Florida. (Shift south from prior 12Z Run)
0z Ukmet Ends run Monday near Grand Bahama as a Cat 2/3 hurricane moving slowly west southwest. (No real shift, but slower)
0z NavGem Tropical Storm landfall near Melbourne, FL late Sunday night. Second landfall in Destin, still a TS Tuesday night. (slight shift north from prior run)
6z Legacy GFS, Landfall Melbourne, FL Cat 4 early Monday. VERY south from prior 0z run. (Which was a major shift north from the 12Z run) Then rides inland basically up I-95, and exist out near Myrtle Beach, SC Wednesday night.
6z Icon, approaching Key Largo early Monday morning as a Cat 3 (Shift South from 0z run)
0z HWRF (6z not finished yet) Moves over Eastern PR as a strong TS. Ends run approaching St. Augustine as a Cat 4 Monday Morning. (Slight north shift)
-0z HMON (6z not finished yet) Moves over Eastern PR as a strong TS. Ends run east of Cape Canaveral as a Cat 3 Monday Morning.generally pointed toward Daytona. (Slight shift north from prior run, but slower)

HAFS unavailable.

6z HWRF Cat 3/4 hurricane over Kennedy Space Center, Sunday afternoon. Shift south
6z HMON Cat 3 into Melbourne, FL early Monday morning. Shift south, faster.


GFS Shifted way north at last night's run, only to start shifting back south again this morning (The old GFS went even more extreme north back to way south). Euro shifted south from yesterday. Florida is still the most likely target, although there is a bit of a question at the end (If it slows down or not) The majority of GFS ensembles are in Florida as are the Euro ensembles.


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100113 - Wed Aug 28 2019 08:20 AM

The models have not been handling this very well, Dorian has been tracking NE of predicted for awhile now. So much so it might go E of PR, which would be nearly 300 miles off target. Still has to get around the upper level low that is NW of its current position. In fact that low appears to be slowing its progress and keeping Dorian moving more N then W.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100114 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:00 AM

6Z GFS Essemble animation

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Owlguin
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100115 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:10 AM

Agree - the eye seems to be appearing on radar now and it appears to be moving well East of PR and even East outside the cone.

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Reaper
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Owlguin]
      #100116 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:27 AM

It may even pass through or just nick Hebert box #1 at it's current trajectory

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #100117 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:42 AM

It's in the box now....if I have the coordinates correct for the storm and the Box....I have it highlighted on my tracking map for reference.

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Kraig
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Reaper]
      #100118 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:43 AM

It's been in it since yesterday.... between 15° and 20° north latitude and 60° to 65° west longitude....

--------------------
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2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100119 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:18 AM

11 AM has a major (Cat 3) coming into the Space Coast... not good. Still has to jog around that upper level low and then we will see how the ridge builds in. If the low backs out and ridge builds quicker could be further south. Or the opposite with the high not pushing Dorian as much thus going further north.

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David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Reef Road Rick
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100120 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:44 AM

What is driving the ridge pushing down from the US mainland the next few days? If it strengthens that will keep it headed more westward and into the denser populated area of South Florida, Historically the Space Coast rarely gets hit with a Major, whereas down here in the deep dirty souff of FL, well, let's say we have quite a history. Especially around Labor Day.

Any expert advice?


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Reef Road Rick]
      #100121 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:53 AM

Not an expert but the high / front pushing off the east coast has me worried too, it will block the northern escape route and push Dorian more west. I believe this has come into play because Dorian has been east of forecast and further away which has delayed its arrival to the FL coast. Compared to the earlier models we now have a Mon AM event vs a Sun AM landfall, a full 24 hours behind schedule. This allows more time for the ridge or front to effect things.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100122 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:00 PM

Thanks for that explanation, JMII, of the reasoning for the timing and the slight shift west. It is time for the Greater Orlando area to take notice of this, especially the northern suburbs.

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Doombot!
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100123 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:40 PM

Quote:

especially the northern suburbs.




It far, far too early to have any specific portion of a metro on alert. All of Florida and GA EC are in the cone.

The NHC averages an error of 200 miles at 5 days and this is a low confidince forecast.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100124 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:53 PM

Yes. I stand corrected.

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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100125 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:58 PM

Ok, I know I don't post a lot on here anymore but I do read a lot. If these questions I'm going to ask are in the wrong place, feel free to let me know. Ok. My son is attending law school at the University of Florida. Since he is not an undergraduate he lives in an apartment with his fiancee and he isn't sure what would happen if his apartment got hit. Where he would live, what would happen to their furniture, etc. They do have renters insurance so I believe that would cover any damage to his furniture. I told him to reach out to UF to see if they have a plan in place for off campus students and also told him to reach out to his apartment complex to see what would happen IF his apartment were to get hit. He has flashlights, batteries, water, canned goods. I told him to also make sure that he has fruit (apples, oranges, bananas) that do not have to be refrigerated. They are filling up their cars tonight and getting cash out. I also told him to make sure they have all important paperwork together and in a safe place with them. He's not sure if he wants to come home yet. I know I'm not plotting maps, models or spaghetti plots but he's nervous and I just wanted to know if anyone had anymore advice I could give him. He's never done this on his own before, so any help would be appreciated. I also gave him the website address so he can follow along. Thank you so much in advance. Colleen A.

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Joeyfl
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100126 - Wed Aug 28 2019 12:59 PM

This looks to be hurricane virgin islands in northern eyeball feature wind obs sustained 70 to 83 mph with gusts 90 to 95 mph albeit some of these are at higher elevations wouldn't be surprised to see hurricane next advisory at 2pm.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #100128 - Wed Aug 28 2019 01:11 PM

Re: Colleen A's question:
Quote:

Ok, I know I don't post a lot on here anymore but I do read a lot. If these questions I'm going to ask are in the wrong place, feel free to let me know. Ok. My son is attending law school at the University of Florida. Since he is not an undergraduate he lives in an apartment with his fiancee and he isn't sure what would happen if his apartment got hit. Where he would live, what would happen to their furniture, etc. They do have renters insurance so I believe that would cover any damage to his furniture. I told him to reach out to UF to see if they have a plan in place for off campus students and also told him to reach out to his apartment complex to see what would happen IF his apartment were to get hit. He has flashlights, batteries, water, canned goods. I told him to also make sure that he has fruit (apples, oranges, bananas) that do not have to be refrigerated. They are filling up their cars tonight and getting cash out. I also told him to make sure they have all important paperwork together and in a safe place with them. He's not sure if he wants to come home yet. I know I'm not plotting maps, models or spaghetti plots but he's nervous and I just wanted to know if anyone had anymore advice I could give him. He's never done this on his own before, so any help would be appreciated. I also gave him the website address so he can follow along. Thank you so much in advance. Colleen A.




Hello Colleen good to see ya! I've opened a Dorian Prep ASK/TELL - please put this and any other preparation questions there. DORIAN PREP ASK/TELL

The Dorian Lounge needs to be related to forecasts, model outputs, etc.


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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100130 - Wed Aug 28 2019 01:59 PM

How about observations from sat reviews? It was good to see Coleen post here again.
I just spent a half hour looking at the western ATL sat loops which presented the picture of the complex situation ahead of Doreen. . ..There is a weak ULL feature to its NW and it is being influenced by the flow around that feature. Ahead of that feature is a NW-SE flow which then becomes westerly over the FL Straits. The ULL is not strong and its influence on Doreen seems to be lessening. If so the NW track currently being seen should become more WNW..fairly soon.
In the CONUS: NW of Florida a trough is pushing SE-E toward exiting CONUS probably in a day or two. By then Doreen should be in the lower Bahamas where a more traditional SE-NW flow should be evident.. A generally easterly flow seems to be following across the ATL behind all this. And if it becomes more of an influence it could be the cause for Doreen to take a more westerly path.
I think this complex situation will begin to be come more clear by tomorrow.

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MichaelA
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100137 - Wed Aug 28 2019 04:04 PM

Late tomorrow into late Friday will be when the projected path begins to firm up. Track guidance is generally very good within 72 hours of landfall. That being said, folks over here in the Tampa Bay Area are well aware of the potential impact from Dorian. I'll be making my final arrangements on Friday before I leave work. If Dorian ends up crossing the state, we'd be looking at a strong TS here sometime during Monday (also a work day for me). Right now, I'm in watch and wait mode. The next track guidance adjustment will be the 5PM advisory ensemble.

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100142 - Wed Aug 28 2019 05:04 PM

Quote:

The next track guidance adjustment will be the 5PM advisory ensemble.




5PM update is out with very little change, small adjustment south as expected to the official forecast

Hurricane winds only push out to 15 miles so a small core with TS winds out 80 miles


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Genesis
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100143 - Wed Aug 28 2019 05:14 PM

I'm not liking some of the latest model runs being near Destin at all..... but with that said there's a LOT of variation in the intensity forecasts as well, including one that reduces it to nearly-not-a-TS by the time it exits into the Gulf near Tampa and while it'll wreck your day if it verifies even on the east coast it won't be anything close a major.

The Euro IMHO has a poor init on the storm right now and also has an insanely-strong high centered over Maine on the 1st that is the impetus for the due-west forcing pattern. I'm not buying that one given the lack of a good init and not sure I buy that evolution in the pattern either.

I suspect until somewhere around late tomorrow into early Friday we're going to have a lot of "dancing models" on this thing; by then they should all have a better handle on this thing.


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Prospero
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100144 - Wed Aug 28 2019 05:56 PM

Quote:

Late tomorrow into late Friday will be when the projected path begins to firm up. Track guidance is generally very good within 72 hours of landfall. That being said, folks over here in the Tampa Bay Area are well aware of the potential impact from Dorian. I'll be making my final arrangements on Friday before I leave work. If Dorian ends up crossing the state, we'd be looking at a strong TS here sometime during Monday (also a work day for me). Right now, I'm in watch and wait mode. The next track guidance adjustment will be the 5PM advisory ensemble.



Well I guess the good news is that if the strike is aimed at us today, it will be somewhere else by Sunday.

But the bad news is that it might not be very far away...


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chance
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100145 - Wed Aug 28 2019 06:13 PM

I worry about the high. I agree the Euro has been off a lot this cane but my question is right now the hurricane force winds are in a very small area. As it gets closer in the next 3 days to 5 days will that expand a lot?

I expect more flops we shall see.


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Kraig
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100146 - Wed Aug 28 2019 07:11 PM

On Day 3, the width of 50kt winds extends 20-40mi out depending on direction and 64kt winds are likely 2/3 that distance so it is still really a buzz saw. Same strength on day 4 and it may slightly expand then. Once it hits land on Day 5 I would expect the top insensity to reduce but the wind field to spread out more. Time will tell!

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2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100149 - Wed Aug 28 2019 08:18 PM

Evening model roundup, and it's a doozy:

18Z GFS: Landfall Cat 3 near Daytona Beach, pre dawn Monday. then stays inalnd.
18Z Legacy GFS: Landfall Melbourne, FL Late Sunday Night, cat 3
12Z CMC Landfall near Vero Beach, Sunday Midday, 2nd landfall near Ft. Walton Beach, Wednesday Morning as a Tropical Storm
18Z NavGem Lanfall near St. Augustine Cat 2 Monday Morning
18Z Icon East of Miami Cat 3 Monday Morning.
12Z Euro Cat 3 landfall near West Palm Beach Sunday night, exits into the Gulf near Ft. Myers as a cat 2, then Cat 3 into Pensacola midday thursday.
18Z HWRF Borderline Cat 4/5 near Port Canaveral Monday Morning
18Z HMON Cat 2 into Melbourne, FL

HWRF is most alarming, but all of them are S or E. Central Florida.


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chance
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100150 - Wed Aug 28 2019 08:43 PM

Quote:

Evening model roundup, and it's a doozy:

18Z GFS: Landfall Cat 3 near Daytona Beach, pre dawn Monday. then stays inalnd.
18Z Legacy GFS: Landfall Melbourne, FL Late Sunday Night, cat 3
12Z CMC Landfall near Vero Beach, Sunday Midday, 2nd landfall near Ft. Walton Beach, Wednesday Morning as a Tropical Storm
18Z NavGem Lanfall near St. Augustine Cat 2 Monday Morning
18Z Icon East of Miami Cat 3 Monday Morning.
12Z Euro Cat 3 landfall near West Palm Beach Sunday night, exits into the Gulf near Ft. Myers as a cat 2, then Cat 3 into Pensacola midday thursday.
18Z HWRF Borderline Cat 4/5 near Port Canaveral Monday Morning
18Z HMON Cat 2 into Melbourne, FL

HWRF is most alarming, but all of them are S or E. Central Florida.





Would you not consider them to be north central Florida besides the one outliner and the 12Z ones are older.


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Sheeper
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100151 - Wed Aug 28 2019 09:15 PM

well after a long day of State EM calls, local EM calls, NHC briefings, discussions with NWS, more briefing with the State, I've decided that Dorian will land somewhere. The models still have a lot of variation to them.
Over in the Tampa area, we are leaning forward and I'll be at work Saturday thru...whenever.
On the east coast...where I actually live, I expect we'll have a few bad days. Current track puts the black line right thru Palm Bay heading NW.
I'd expect some more variation to this as tomorrow progresses.

15 years ago for Labor Day we were doing the same thing here in Vero Beach! Hunker down!

--------------------
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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Sheeper]
      #100153 - Wed Aug 28 2019 09:44 PM

Here on Clearwater Beach we are already being overwhelmed by web traffic by people looking at conditions and information. We are plugging FLhurricane.com as a source. (Hope that is OK.) There is world-wide attention on Florida right now, maybe more than Michael or Irma from what we've seen in the past for this much time out. Guess Hurricanes are big news ($$$$).



Hurricane Dorian Conditions Live - HD Beach Cam in Clearwater Beach, Florida

We plan to provide updates and absolutely consider FLhurricane as the most valuable local resource for we who live and have businesses in Florida, and visitors/tourist should know about it..

Anxious about what will solidify, knowing that so many "big" storms are not all that (watching countless live Weather Channel feeds), but some are horribly destructive. Here in Tampa Bay we are taking it serious, for sure, but most of us are still waiting to see what happens through tomorrow.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100155 - Wed Aug 28 2019 09:54 PM

Plugging is fine. We're decently prepared for traffic. Although it could get slow at times if it gets overwhelmed. I'm working with Mark Sudduth over at hurricanetrack to get some of the remote cams up probably on Saturday or Sunday wherever it makes sense for Dorian's ultimate track.

We'll throw up the usual recordings when the system gets closer.


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100156 - Wed Aug 28 2019 10:22 PM

Quote:

We're decently prepared for traffic. Although it could get slow at times if it gets overwhelmed.



Streaming cams can be a pain, especially in HD. I just had to reboot our NVR as it must have been over-taxed a little while ago. I have been trying h.265 compression but might have to go back to h.264 which is proven and works well. I like the quality of h.265, but seems to hang up with the service I use.

Live cams are popular and a powerful visuals for visitors far away. So worth the work.


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100157 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:22 PM

Quote:

I'm working with Mark Sudduth over at hurricanetrack to get some of the remote cams up probably on Saturday or Sunday wherever it makes sense for Dorian's ultimate track.





Thanks for doing this. I'll be doing a time lapse like I did for Irma from northern Broward County HERE. I don't live stream because I use my bandwidth for refreshing about 20 different websites (like this one) during landfall.

Model guidance is being to align and things are looking bad no matter how you slice it. Dorian can't go around or thru the ridge of high pressure to the north so westward is his only path. As always timing will be critical. Hopefully the core stays small to avoid doing wide spread damage like Wilma did.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100158 - Wed Aug 28 2019 11:23 PM Attachment (17 downloads)

Past hour or two looks like dry air intrusion and maybe an ERC?

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M.A.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Sheeper]
      #100159 - Thu Aug 29 2019 12:00 AM

15 Years ago was a bad couple of weeks here in Vero Beach! I believe we are better prepared to deal with a Cat3 storm than we were in 04'. Still, you hope people take it seriously, get prepared or leave. Our normal rule of thumb is over 125, we get out of town. We have reservations in 3 locations to the north and south. Given the low confidence of the models to date, I believe the Navgem has been the best so far in handling Dorian. It was the first to pick up on the storm formation and to show a (likely) Florida landfall. Dorian looks a little ragged this evening and on the PR radar seems to be entraining some dry air. This shouldn't continue for much longer and I expect to see a much better looking satellite signature in the morning. Good luck.

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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100161 - Thu Aug 29 2019 12:30 AM

Thank you, my friend. I got a lot of good information from that from that link that you shared with me. I know that you all will be busy the next few days and I will help in anyway I can. Have a good night.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Doombot!
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100162 - Thu Aug 29 2019 01:15 AM

Quote:

Past hour or two looks like dry air intrusion and maybe an ERC?




It look like it did take on a big slug of dryer air as an ERC would be taking place. The last couple of frames of the floater seem to be showing a eye / soft spot that reformed a bit to the SW where the previous center was tracking. If this materializes, I wonder if this will translate to a somewhat more southern solution at 5a.

Either way, I suspect that this the last disruption Dorian is likely to undergo before it takes off.


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100163 - Thu Aug 29 2019 02:09 AM

SHIP actually predicted a pause/slight waning for 24 hours before intensification again

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100164 - Thu Aug 29 2019 03:06 AM

00Z runs of GFS and Euro have both shifted. GFS looks farther north around Savanna. Euro still south but then a drastic recurve right up the spine of Florida.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100166 - Thu Aug 29 2019 07:58 AM

There's not a lot of time for me this morning, but quick rundown of 6zs (or 12Z)

General trend is a bit south, but mostly unchanged other than most not showing it out into the Gulf.

6Z GFS: Cat 3 landfall near Cape Canaveral Midday Monday then curving inland.
6z Legacy GFS landfall Cat 3/4 near Vero Beach late Monday night then rides inland along the coast all the way to the Carolinas.
0z Euro landfall near West Palm Beach, early Afternoon Monday as a cat 3 (possibly 4). then rides up the middle of the state to JAX by Thursday and inland to North Carolina by next Saturday.
0z CMC Landfall near West Palm Monday Afternoon as cat 2/3, then rides coast inland
6z Navgem Landfall near Miami Cat 3, Tuesday midday,
6z Icon approaching Miami cat 3 by Tuesday morning.
0z Ukmet landfall near West Palm Beach as a Cat 3 Late Monday night.
6z HWRF Landfall Early Monday Morning cat 4 near Cape Canaveral,
6z HMON landfall near Boca Raton Cat 3 then exits into the Gulf north of Naples.


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Ed G
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100168 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:25 AM

I saw on the FLHurricane Facebook page that someone states the storm will be passing over Orlando. Is this just a guess or is there something that shows this track?.

" landfalling in East Central Florida Sunday night into Monday Morning, then moves it over Orlando by Monday Afternoon"


Edited by Ed G (Thu Aug 29 2019 09:43 AM)


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Ed G]
      #100170 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:47 AM

That was just a verbal description of where the line is but NHC track (line not cone) has it SW of Orlando (Winter Haven/Lake Wales) at 85 mph at 2AM Tuesday. If tracks a little bit more to the north and Orlando is a little closer to the coast so could see 100mph. But that’s still a lot of what ifs and extrapolation. The forecast track and intensity is going to change several times so if you’re in the cone you need to be ready.

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Ed G
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100171 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:55 AM

Thank you lunker. Is there a website where one can zoom in on the NHC track, without the spaghetti graphic?

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Ed G]
      #100172 - Thu Aug 29 2019 10:09 AM

Quote:

Thank you lunker. Is there a website where one can zoom in on the NHC track, without the spaghetti graphic?




I use the WunderMap at wunderground.com, HERE turn on the hurricane layer.

Some of the models are seeing a weakness in the ridge at the end of the run, thus a turn north right before or immediately after landfall.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100173 - Thu Aug 29 2019 10:14 AM

Some of the Euro ensembles are showing a sharp recurve this morning, although the majority are still into Florida. That's somewhat a change, but others have shifted a bit south, so I suspect the 11AM will actually shift the track a bit south (barely) mainly because of the TVCN model. Multiple features impacting direction. ULL to the west, one in the Gulf later, the ridge to the north, short waves in the Ohio Valley, all are some of the moving pieces.

The Upper level low to the west of Dorian is what will likely drive it more north today, and then pinwheel around to the west later. Water vapor satellite images are the easiest to visualize this.



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Kraig
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100175 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:00 AM

I'm hoping that Euro late recurve is the start of a trend that keeps moving a little (or a lot!!) east with each run.....

--------------------
--------------------------------
2019 forecast 11/5/3

South FL Native and experienced: David ('79), Floyd ('87), Andrew ('92), Georges ('98), Irene ('99), Charlie, Frances & Jeanne ('04), Wilma ('05), Matthew ('16), Irma ('17) and Dorian ('19)


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Stork
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Ed G]
      #100176 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:39 AM

The NHC also has a zoomable map if you scroll to Dorian and click on

'Warnings/Cone Interactive Map'

In addition to being able to zoom on the track, it also has boxes that can be checked to overlay a few different kinds of information. (Most likely arrival time of TS winds, etc.)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/


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B.C.Francis
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Kraig]
      #100177 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:40 AM

I`m hearing a Cat 4 at landfall possible some where in east central Florida. A storm that intense will change everything here on the barrier island. I hope the hammer doesn`t fall here, and I hope central east coast Florida takes this very serious

Edited by B.C.Francis (Thu Aug 29 2019 11:42 AM)


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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #100178 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:46 AM

Best way to think about a Tropical system is a Pinball Machine.. the flow is to the bottom as the ball (Storm) traverses but it bounces around ULLs and other disturbances on it's flow... or you can think of a ballon on a stream... as it goes thru it will bounce around rocks.

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100179 - Thu Aug 29 2019 12:16 PM

Quote:

The Upper level low to the west of Dorian is what will likely drive it more north today, and then pinwheel around to the west later. Water vapor satellite images are the easiest to visualize this.




It was very easy to see this AM with outflow limited to the W and all the high level clouds moving N. However it already appears to be eroding has the high level clouds at the extreme end of the northern outflow channel have gotten a tiny bit of NW motion to them as we enter the afternoon. Learning a lot watching this storm... the online tools are getting so much better for us non-professionals.


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IsoFlame
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100180 - Thu Aug 29 2019 01:15 PM

Quote:

Some of the Euro ensembles are showing a sharp recurve...



I think they're onto something- lets see if this trend continues in future runs. A slow, though fairly sharp, right turn up the spine of Florida (unfortunately after Dorian landfalls along Florida's east coast as a major). Dorian never makes it to the GOMEX. Instead slows and weakens over the peninsula, dumping 10+ inches on portions of already saturated central Florida. Maybe a painfully slow track inland through the state (similar to Frances).

Edited by IsoFlame (Thu Aug 29 2019 01:18 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100181 - Thu Aug 29 2019 01:48 PM

Busy this afternoon. GFS is really brutal for us in Central Florida, 24 hour long period with hurricane/storm conditions. UKMET is actually fast (landfall WPB Sunday afternoon) and into the Gulf and threatens Mexico Beach now. Euro, and some of the others are still coming out.

Very confusing signals from the various models today.


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TheBeach
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100182 - Thu Aug 29 2019 01:49 PM

Is it just me, or does it appear that Dorian is beginning to make a westward turn in the recent radar loops? If so, how does this effect the model forecasts?

--------------------
Survived Camille , Katrina, and many in between.


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: TheBeach]
      #100183 - Thu Aug 29 2019 02:08 PM

Quote:

Is it just me, or does it appear that Dorian is beginning to make a westward turn in the recent radar loops? If so, how does this effect the model forecasts?




He was east (again) of the NHC line but appears to have jogged back. At this point I wouldn't read too much into these minor wobbles.


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BloodstarModerator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100185 - Thu Aug 29 2019 02:27 PM

There's still quite a bit of spread with the models. Not much to add except that the core of the storm is relatively small, so fluctuations in strength might be pretty dramatic and rapid. But with nothing to really disrupt the storm, I would think that ERCs will help expand the size of the storm.

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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100186 - Thu Aug 29 2019 02:27 PM

Wobbles happen all the time...shouldn't move west till late Friday night into Saturday.. real question is.. Sunday-Monday will it continue west or will it slow down and move WSW like the Euro (and a few minor models) have been showing.. I think for now.. the best model might be the UKMet but at a slower pace.. Can't say landfall where yet cause it's all speculations with the models being so far apart on days 4 and 5.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100188 - Thu Aug 29 2019 03:31 PM

The 12Z Euro is really strange with a dip to the WSW right before landfall and then a hard recurve to the NNW. Wow.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100189 - Thu Aug 29 2019 03:47 PM

ridge quickly weakens and waits for the Bermuda ridge to control it on days 5-7 thus pushing NNW... thing is... everyone just keep seeing a point of where the models go out to 72hours.. Blend the Euro @72 and the GFS @72 and it will probably be close between them points and both them points might not be that far off

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Rob Moser
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100191 - Thu Aug 29 2019 04:34 PM

Why has the National Hurricane Center quit doing intermediate reports? Don't they normally report every 3 hours under these circumstances?

Rob, in answer to your question
Quote:

("Why has the National Hurricane Center quit doing intermediate reports? Don't they normally report every 3 hours under these circumstances?")




Intermediate public advisories are issued every 3 hours when coastal watches or warnings are in effect. Additionally, special public advisories may be issued at any time due to significant changes in warnings or in the cyclone. (NHC)
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 30 2019 12:32 AM)


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doug
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100192 - Thu Aug 29 2019 04:39 PM

I think we might see a more WNW direction soon. Again just watching the dynamic on the SAT loops...

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doug


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Rob Moser]
      #100193 - Thu Aug 29 2019 04:40 PM

Quote:

Why has the National Hurricane Center quit doing intermediate reports? Don't they normally report every 3 hours under these circumstances?




Only when a watch or warning is posted. Dorain is out to sea thus no land areas are effected


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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100195 - Thu Aug 29 2019 05:04 PM

No major changes with the 5PM update, slight shift south

Below is an image that shows the scenarios from a Twitter post that summed things up nicely.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EDKeIbcX4AAiZbL.jpg


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kspkap
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100196 - Thu Aug 29 2019 05:13 PM

Thanks for the chuckle! We needed this for a change from the dire advisories.

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bob3d
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100197 - Thu Aug 29 2019 05:16 PM

Not sure if this is the correct place to post this link to Florida Governor DeSantis' briefing today that "‘This Track Has A Significant Amount Of Uncertainty’, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Urges Residents To Be Prepared". So here is the link:
Governor DeSantis Statement Today at 12:30PM
I hope it's useful to somebody...

Note: This is NOT a political post. It is intended for information about the Governor's declaration of a State of Emergency and why he made that move, given the uncertainty in the models after 3 days out.


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MichaelA
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100199 - Thu Aug 29 2019 05:39 PM

Also, Dorian remains a very small, compact storm. Even though track forecasts have become much better, these tiny storms seem to be more vulnerable in their tracks as they seem to be influenced more by mesoscale atmospheric conditions, as happened with Hurricane Charley (also a small storm) and its sudden right turn into Punta Gorda. I'd expect some variability in forecast track over the next few days as more data is fed to the models. Of course, after landfall, the wind field will probably expand as the storm winds down. If the current forecast verifies, I don't expect a major impact in the Tampa Bay region.

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2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 10/4/2


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chance
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100201 - Thu Aug 29 2019 06:53 PM

A few people like or liked the ukmet. Well the 18Z models are out and the cluster on tropical tibets has them more north. The Ukmet had it cross the state at the 12Z and exit around Sarasota. Now it has it come across father up and exit around Tampa. So around 40 to 50 mile leap to the north Just for those who are taking the ukmet as a leader this time around.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100202 - Thu Aug 29 2019 08:27 PM

The UKMET only updates at 12Z and 0z, the last run is faster than the 0z, it makes landfall at west palm beach 4pm EDT Sunday as a 973mb hurricane (which is what Dorian is right now) , exits near Longboat Key around 5pm on Monday around 984mb, then ends the model run south of St. Joseph's peninsula in the Panhandle as a 963mb hurricane 7am on Wednesday.
Double check the dates if you see anything different than that.


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chance
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100203 - Thu Aug 29 2019 08:32 PM

Quote:

The UKMET only updates at 12Z and 0z, the last run is faster than the 0z, it makes landfall at west palm beach 4pm EDT Sunday as a 973mb hurricane (which is what Dorian is right now) , exits near Longboat Key around 5pm on Monday around 984mb, then ends the model run south of St. Joseph's peninsula in the Panhandle as a 963mb hurricane 7am on Wednesday.
Double check the dates if you see anything different than that.





I dunno this Met who is also a verified twitter user and storm chaser posted this.

@DylanFedericoWX

It will not let me post a link but his 18Z has ukmet in it and where i said. Only posted what i read.

Chance, I've looked all over Dylan's recent Twitter entries and have found no posts regarding an 18Z UKMET. It's possible he posted in error and deleted, which could be why you were unable to share (what would be an expired) link. He has posted about 18Z EPS. (18z ECMWF ensemble members). Maybe that was it ,who knows ;-) . - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Aug 30 2019 12:54 AM)


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Psyber
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100206 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:09 PM

Quote:

The UKMET only updates at 12Z and 0z, the last run is faster than the 0z, it makes landfall at west palm beach 4pm EDT Sunday as a 973mb hurricane (which is what Dorian is right now) , exits near Longboat Key around 5pm on Monday around 984mb, then ends the model run south of St. Joseph's peninsula in the Panhandle as a 963mb hurricane 7am on Wednesday.
Double check the dates if you see anything different than that.




With the unfortunate part being the storm essentially not going over any land before it hits Florida. The SST's are 29-31C depending on which track you take in, neither of which is good news.

I always hate to say it but hitting the D/R and Cuba could have at least knocked some of the growth of this (at the risk of the people, unfortunately, living and at risk in those areas). Staying north, Dorian is going to land hard with a fairly large storm surge...not having much of anything in front of it except for the high over the lower south eastern quadrant of the country.

Do you think the current high is going to stick around to at least put a bit of a block against the storm, Mike?


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lunkerhunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100207 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:22 PM

Mike I look forward to your evening model update summary it’s always excellent work

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lunkerhunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100208 - Thu Aug 29 2019 09:51 PM

I’m surprised I haven’t heard the A word more… Andrew

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JMII
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100209 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:04 PM

11 PM is out... another shift south and slower - extremely bad news.
TS winds reaching the coast at 8PM Sunday night. Hurricane force winds out 25 miles up from only 15, still pretty compact at Cat 2 105 MPH


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chance
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100210 - Thu Aug 29 2019 11:22 PM

It shows it 24 hours later as just holding cat1 above the lake. 75mph wins and just inland. If this played out which is very slim but can happen it would not even be a hurricane then after it moved more.

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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100211 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:05 AM

Mike C is an excellent example of giving us the information we get on this website. If you don't believe in him, don't follow....that's all there is to it. I've been following this website since 2002. He does not make stuff up; he's just giving you the information. If you don't want to follow, you are free to move along. Colleen A. (Moderator).

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Doombot!
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Colleen A.]
      #100212 - Fri Aug 30 2019 01:47 AM

Paradoxically, at this time a big slug of dry air has been injested by the storm from the S / SE, up around the eastern side in & up and over the northern sections however the core seems to be resisting this intrusion and continues to organize.

Should be "interesting" once all the dry air this storm is seeming to find is gone.


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Psyber
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100213 - Fri Aug 30 2019 01:56 AM

Quote:

A few people like or liked the ukmet. Well the 18Z models are out and the cluster on tropical tibets has them more north. The Ukmet had it cross the state at the 12Z and exit around Sarasota. Now it has it come across father up and exit around Tampa. So around 40 to 50 mile leap to the north Just for those who are taking the ukmet as a leader this time around.




The CHC is still about 270 miles wide with there being a high in front of Dorian about when it hits the coast or possibly before which may cause it to go north or (shudder) hold it south so it crosses into the gulf. During this time it possibly strengthens to an H4.

My point (not made as an attack) Anybody trying to guess within 40-50 miles on which part of the coast this storm hits, even with a fairly straight W N/W track is throwing some guess in there. It's too soon to know within that range. Doing so is dangerous because it will keep some people home when they might be better off trying to get a room at a motel 8 somewhere inland.

As of right now most of the Florida Panhandle should have/should be hightailing it North.

Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 01:58 AM)


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chance
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100216 - Fri Aug 30 2019 02:50 AM

Quote:

Quote:

A few people like or liked the ukmet. Well the 18Z models are out and the cluster on tropical tibets has them more north. The Ukmet had it cross the state at the 12Z and exit around Sarasota. Now it has it come across father up and exit around Tampa. So around 40 to 50 mile leap to the north Just for those who are taking the ukmet as a leader this time around.




The CHC is still about 270 miles wide with there being a high in front of Dorian about when it hits the coast or possibly before which may cause it to go north or (shudder) hold it south so it crosses into the gulf. During this time it possibly strengthens to an H4.

My point (not made as an attack) Anybody trying to guess within 40-50 miles on which part of the coast this storm hits, even with a fairly straight W N/W track is throwing some guess in there. It's too soon to know within that range. Doing so is dangerous because it will keep some people home when they might be better off trying to get a room at a motel 8 somewhere inland.

As of right now most of the Florida Panhandle should have/should be hightailing it North.





Agree nobody knows within 40 to 50 miles of where yet and may not for another day or 2. There are so many different things that can happen it can stall it can speed up and can go right over the model points.

I remember Charlie everyone around Tampa ran to Orlando because it was going to come right up into Tampa bay and they got it worse in Orlando because he turned in down below.

And i was wrong about the ukmet i went only by what i seen posted by a Met no big deal. Good job see what tomorrow brings.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100217 - Fri Aug 30 2019 02:51 AM

The 00Z runs of the GFS and Euro do not look significantly different, at least for the GENERAL area of landfall and track thereafter.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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HurricaneSteph
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100219 - Fri Aug 30 2019 05:09 AM

Am I reading the 5am map right?? Wednesday now for central Florida impact? I’m confused between the warning/cone map and the “time of expected TS force winds” map. I mean, seems like they don’t really coordinate, as of 5am that is. 🤷‍♀️

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: HurricaneSteph]
      #100221 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:02 AM

Yeah. The track timing and the Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of TS Winds look out of sync. Maybe one of the experts can weigh-in on this issue.

--------------------
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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100222 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:52 AM

My take on it is that "Earliest Reasonable" times would be if the storm does not slow down. Notice there is a button for "Most Likely" and that is more in sync with the Warning Cone.

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bob3d
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100223 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:19 AM

What is the percentage confidence within the white part of the cone that NOAA puts out??? I used to know, but the years have taken their toll on my memory.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: bob3d]
      #100224 - Fri Aug 30 2019 08:05 AM

Morning Model run summary, either 6z or 0z depending on the model.

Time to get on with the slow:

6z GFS - landfall on Great Abaco in the Bahamas Late Sunday night, Cat 3, over Freeport in the Bahamas Monday Morning, Cat 3/4 landfall in West Palm Beach Early Tuesday Morning, over Lake Okeechobee Tuesday Afternoon, Lakeland by Wednesday Morning Cat 1 (dirty side over W Orlando) , TS Jacksonville by late Thursday Morning. SLOW SLOW SLOW Then rides coast just offshore, finally clear of NC by midday Saturday. A week long experience for the southeast.

6Z legacy GFS, similar, but landfall As a Cat 4 in Vero Beach Tuesday Morning and rides just inland. Cat 2 Hurricane over Jacksonville Wednesday Morning Exits coast near Charleston, SC Midday Thursday and fhen rides just offshore up to Hatteras, NC By Saturday morning.

0z Euro Cat 3 landfall near Marsh Harbour on Great Abaco in the Bahamas Around noontime Sunday, Cat 3/4 over Freeport in the Bahamas around 3am Monday. Cat 4 landfall in West Palm Beach Overnight Monday into Tuesday (near midnight) Lake Okeechobee around 4pm Tuesday Cat 2/3, Cat 1/2 over Orlando Wednesday morning. TS/Cat 1 over Jacksonville Wednesday Evening. Did I mention slow? The rides the coast just inland Finally exits into the Atlantic by Nags Head, NC Saturday afternoon. Then clips cape cod earl Sunday morning. and one more landfall in Maine later Sunday morning. (May not be tropical at that point)

6Z Icon has landfall near Great Abaco as Cat 3/4 Early Sunday Afternoon, then Cat 4 over Miami proper Tuesday Morning, and ends its run over Ft. Myers on Wednesday morning, a cat 1/2 hurricane

6Z HWRF Clips Abaco on the north side, cat 4, Sunday afternoon. Landfall just south of Vero Beach as a cat 4 Tuesday early morning. Cat 3 over Orlando Tuesday afternoon. Ends run just west of Jacksonville Wednesday morning Cat 1.

6Z HMON Much further south than most, Shoots gap between Abaco and Cat islands late Sunday, Cat 4. Misses the other Islands, Landfall Miami, Cat 4/5 Tuesday morning. Cat 1/TS over Orlando By Wednesday Morning. ends run just west of Palatka, Tropical Storm.

0z UKMET, Over the north part of Great Abaco Cat 3 Sunday evening. Landfall near Boca Raton, Cat 3 Late Overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning. Near Venice/Beach or Sarasota as it exits into the Gulf Cat2/3 Early Wednesday morning. Ends run regaining strength in the Gulf well of Tampa and south of Tallahaasee.

Yeah...

Rainfall is pegged on the track routes for Florida, Harvey levels of rain in parts.


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: bob3d]
      #100225 - Fri Aug 30 2019 08:15 AM

Despite being a Cat 2 this thing is a mess - very elongated, no clear eye, tons of dry air to the south. The ULL is still in front of it which explains the slow motion. It’s was pushed up against that all day yesterday. It’s outflow is trying to get going but there is no defined channel. It has one huge spiral band, I guess the worry is if that can ever wrap around to feed the core things will crank up.

As has been case for most of it trek the small tight core is intact and solid. There is a massive dry line that mirrors the US east coastline with a strong jet pushing E. So it can’t go north and needs to move due west to reach S FL but that darn ULL just doesn’t want to budge. There is huge amount of moisture over FL’s east coast for it to tap into. The 8 AM updates has winds up to 110 but still only 25 miles from the center. TS winds extend out 105 miles so it’s still small.

I guess TS winds on the coast by 8 PM Sunday is possible if it gets organized and the wind field expands. We should getting a better handle on winds once it starts to effect the Bahamas Saturday PM. Given it’s track weather data from the islands will give us a clue on what to expect.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100226 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:12 AM

Just got home from Walmart in South St. Petersburg. I thought I'd beat the rush but it was a ZOO. Size C and D batteries already sold out. I filled up my gas tank and there were lines, but not as bad as I saw last night.

NHC has Tampa Bay with "Earliest Reasonable" tropical storm winds as Sunday at 8PM and "Most Likely" by Monday at 8PM. Most of the models have some kind of Tropical Storm conditions over Tampa Bay at some point in Dorian's time in Florida. The weather forecast for Sunday is a high chance of rain anyway, so I'm starting to prepare as far as shopping today and might batten down the hatches tomorrow if we need to as Sunday might be a messy day weather wise ahead of the Storm.


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IsoFlame
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100227 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:22 AM

Quote:

Rainfall is pegged on the track routes for Florida, Harvey levels of rain in parts.



Potentially biblical amounts east of the center of circulation.
From NWS Melbourne early morning discussion: The 00Z model guidance has come into much better agreement on the track of Hurricane Dorian showing a nearly due west motion across the NW Bahamas Sunday/Sunday night
with slowing forward speed as it approaches the FL east coast Monday/Monday night. Input from the special soundings and the NOAA G-4 upper air sampling likely helped with the better agreement. The strength and orientation of the upper ridge remains pivotal to steering Dorian. A turn to the north or northwest over the FL peninsula is expected around or shortly after landfall as a break in the upper ridge develops.
Tue-Thu...Forecast is highly dependent on Dorian`s track and forward motion. Official NHC forecast shows decreasing storm motion as Dorian approaches the east coast so impacts look like they will persist into the middle of next week. In fact, a prolonged wind and rain event for east central Florida is looking more likely.

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doug
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100230 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:32 AM

TV in TPA suggested Tuesday night to Wednesday as the time for most activity. But who knows...that suggestion was based on the 5 day cone.. As correctly stated above, this thing is a mess. The ULL is still influencing the path and make up of the system...That feature was essentially oriented N-S when Dorian moved more northward away from Puerto Rico. Now that system is elongated WNW-ESE. Dorian seems to be following the flow along the top of that system. That system is also preventing Dorian from grabbing any real energized air and has entrained more dry air which is keeping its core size small and the west-SW side weak. Actually there is no major effective source for energized air input into the system..again keeping it very tiny.
Earlier we were cautioned that the most effective time to pay attention to the projections is at the 72 hour mark, and with this system that 72 hour keeps shifting

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scottsvb
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100231 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:34 AM

06Z GFS is actually more west in Florida Mike.. I think you saw the 0z run.. cause 06 goes along SR 70 then north thru Tampa Bay along the coast then turns NE around Inverness

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Doombot!
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100234 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:35 AM

It took about an hour flat for the eye to go from incomplete to clear.

I can't help but think back to 'Spaceballs' : "It's MegaMaid, sir! She's gone from suck to blow!!"


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100235 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:00 AM

Quote:

It took about an hour flat for the eye to go from incomplete to clear.




That happened quickly for sure. Outflow is improving, eye wall strengthening, all bad signs.

11AM update about the same, more south, wind field still small. Motion has been more NNW, its moved a full degree W but only a 1/2 degree N so the turn hasn't really started yet. Just a touch east of predicted.


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Doombot!
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100236 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:00 AM

11 am is out. No major updates.

The 06 and 12Z guidance is also in or almost in. Basically the same as the last runs with most showing a landfall between FLL and the Cape and a long, slow, slog up peninsular Florida.


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chance
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100238 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:09 AM

Why do people not like the Navgem Model? It like a few of the others is a global model and it has been consistant with its call of getting close to florida but before landfall it curves. Is it because it does not come on land that nobody shows it in there model roundup? Seems like it should be counted as much as few of the others.

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scottsvb
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100239 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:24 AM

It's always off basis.. main 3 are #Euro #GFS #UKMet of the gobal... if I had to pick a #4 GFDL

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scottsvb
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100240 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:02 PM

.12Z GFS never goes due west.. stays on more of a WNW or 285-290dg path thru 96hrs.A good 60 mile jump to the NE by Monday night on the GFS compared to its 0z and 6z.. instead of landfall near WPB.. it looks like it may hug the coast then stay near Melbourne and the Cape or come inland then head north and exit near Daytona by day 5. We'll have to see what the Euro does

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M.A.
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100241 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:11 PM

I would tend to agree with your ranking. But as I stated a couple days ago, Navgem was the first to pick up on the genesis and brought it into Florida during that first run. I use the Navgem and CMC to pick up on areas of interest as they tend to be more aggressive on cyclogenesis. After development, the other models tend to be more accurate. I will say the Euro has been horrible compared to others with Dorian. The Navgem, HWRF and CMC brought it into PR or East of PR from the start and were discounted. But, over the long haul, I totally agree with your rankings once again.

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chance
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100242 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:17 PM

Ukmet this time i have it right it is the 12Z i was wrong yesterday with Mike but the 12Z is also way the other way ne now. Not saying it can't go back but everyone was on the ukmet as so good well now it has it just nshore the east coast not the west anymore.

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scottsvb
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100243 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:40 PM

UKMet likes to jump around with different data it translates into it's model run... main 1 is the Euro but it was consistant with a sharp turn. I don't think the soundings went into the 0z model runs last night.. or at 6z cause they all almost jumped NE at 12Z...by 60-100 miles depending on the model (not counting the 12Z Euro yet)

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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100244 - Fri Aug 30 2019 12:53 PM

Models should be doing better now that they have data from the Gulfstream Jets - not the ocean current, but the NHC planes. They have started trending back N. The slow down in foward speed is increasing the chances of damage from flooding and a prolonged wind event. However I believe the slow down also allow for a strong turn to the N right at or after landfall. So the creep up the coast scenario is possible.

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100248 - Fri Aug 30 2019 02:18 PM

12Z Euro and GFS in GENERAL agreement again. Both have moved north and east.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100249 - Fri Aug 30 2019 02:29 PM

Correction. Does the 12Z Euro even make landfall? I dont think it does.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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scottsvb
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100252 - Fri Aug 30 2019 03:46 PM

No..but it could come back some towards a landfall and brush along the space coast. More data will go back into the 0z model runs.. we will see if that adjusts them back west more or if the trend stays offshore

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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: scottsvb]
      #100255 - Fri Aug 30 2019 05:10 PM

5pm advisory has the forecast track shifted east from the last forecast track. I think the NHC is feeling a little more confidence in the Euro model shift. The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.

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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100257 - Fri Aug 30 2019 05:31 PM

Quote:

The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.




Agreed... another 2 sets of updates that follow this trend would make me feel better. Apparently getting that extra recon data has helped the models grasp the dynamics of the environment better. Before this model run the spread was pretty wide now we are starting to see some agreement.

Now the question does this hold over night. Going to be another nail biter. So I am in a holding pattern here in Broward. Also paying close attention to the wind field information since an expanding area of hurricane force winds would render the exact location of Dorian less important. Need some data from weather stations in the Bahamas to understand the true "on the ground" situation.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100259 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:08 PM

Quote:

Quote:

The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.




Agreed... another 2 sets of updates that follow this trend would make me feel better. Apparently getting that extra recon data has helped the models grasp the dynamics of the environment better. Before this model run the spread was pretty wide now we are starting to see some agreement.

Now the question does this hold over night. Going to be another nail biter. So I am in a holding pattern here in Broward. Also paying close attention to the wind field information since an expanding area of hurricane force winds would render the exact location of Dorian less important. Need some data from weather stations in the Bahamas to understand the true "on the ground" situation.




I would tend to disagree with that. The eye looks to be going slightly north of the Bahamas giving it at least a hopelly weaker south/west part of the hurricane hit. It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.

The problem is that it's going to be left churning in hot water with nothing to sap it's strength land wise like a Cuba as it slows and approaches Florida. It's hard to imagine it staying less than a strong 3 or a weaker 4 when it hits the coast at full strength but with it projected to slow, the high over Florida is really going to determine if this is a monster or a really bad headache by how long it takes to get smacked north and then northeast, quite possibly bouncing up the coast as it goes North.

Most of the models including the NHC barely have it going inland before it gets corralled along the coast up and back out to sea. It's hard to determine the rain situation because it's still hard to tell where it's going to hit even with it being only a day and a half out. Usually, the cone of possibility is a little tighter at this point but it needs to be underlined that this storm is exceptionally unstable as far as tracking.

Lastly, if you're biting your nails wondering if you should stay or go, I'd tend to say it's better to go. Twenty gallons of gas was the cheapest investment so many never made when Katrina hit places like Gulfport and basically left grass and concrete slabs where houses full of people USED to stand.

Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 06:14 PM)


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100260 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:09 PM

Question:

Is there an online archive of NHC cone histories and/or spaghetti plot histories for named storms?

I'd love to see how the predictions wriggle this way and that over the life of storms we remember. I know they do shift and surprise at times, and even during a storm's life I can lose track of where they were forecast a day or two before...

If not, what a fabulous idea for a sponsor paid website!



The SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) has been fairly on target from the beginning it appears on this storm, with some fluctuation north and south, but mostly near target.


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Cindi
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100261 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:14 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.




Agreed... another 2 sets of updates that follow this trend would make me feel better. Apparently getting that extra recon data has helped the models grasp the dynamics of the environment better. Before this model run the spread was pretty wide now we are starting to see some agreement.

Now the question does this hold over night. Going to be another nail biter. So I am in a holding pattern here in Broward. Also paying close attention to the wind field information since an expanding area of hurricane force winds would render the exact location of Dorian less important. Need some data from weather stations in the Bahamas to understand the true "on the ground" situation.




I would tend to disagree with that. The eye looks to be going slightly north of the Bahamas giving it at least a hopelly weaker south/west part of the hurricane hit. It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.

The problem is that it's going to be left churning in hot water with nothing to sap it's strength land wise like a Cuba as it slows and approaches Florida. It's hard to imagine it staying less than a strong 3 or a weaker 4 when it hit the coast at full strength but with it projected to slow, the high over Florida is really going to determine if this is a monster or a reall bad headache by how long it takes to get smacked north and then northeast, quite possibly bouncing up the coast as it goes North.

Most of the models including the NHC barely have it going inland before it gets coralled along the coast up and back out to sea. It's hard to determine the rain situation because it's still hard to tell where it's going to hit even with it being only a day and a half out. Usually, the cone of possibility is a little tighter at this point but it needs to be underlined that this storm is exceptionally unstable as far as tracking.

Lastly, if you're biting your nails wondering if you should stay or go, I'd tend to say it's better to go. Twenty gallons of gas was the cheapest investment so many never made when Katrina hit places like Gulfport and basically left grass and concrete slabs where houses full of people USED to stand.




That 20 gallons of gas saved our lives last year because we evacuated when Hurricane Michael hit our area and destroyed our home. If you think you need to leave - its better to do so, than to wish you did after its too late.


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gvl, fl
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Cindi]
      #100263 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:40 PM

Quote:

That 20 gallons of gas saved our lives last year because we evacuated when Hurricane Michael hit our area and destroyed our home. If you think you need to leave - its better to do so, than to wish you did after its too late.




Hi, My mom lives in Cocoa just east of US-1 in a concrete block home on high ground built in the 1970s. It's in the High Point neighborhood, about midway between the river and US-1. I was wondering if those homes in Gulfport and Panama City that were destroyed were wood frame or concrete block? Also, any thoughts from anyone on whether a concrete block home that age in Brevard County should be able to withstand winds of ~140 mph?

- Larry in Gainesville


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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100264 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:40 PM

Quote:

Question:

Is there an online archive of NHC cone histories and/or spaghetti plot histories for named storms?






That's a question I'd be curious about as well. I wrote [one of] the recon decoders here on this site years ago, back when I was an amateur coder. Now, I'm a professional web applications developer and I've been tossing around that idea a lot lately as well. I'll have to check around and see if there's any standard endpoint of data out there.

(I also noticed that my recon decoder code has some issues in it and needs to be rewritten at some point, but that's a different story for another day.)

--------------------
Londovir


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StormHound
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100265 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:46 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

The 11pm and tomorrow mornings 5am advisories will tell a tale for certain.




Agreed... another 2 sets of updates that follow this trend would make me feel better. Apparently getting that extra recon data has helped the models grasp the dynamics of the environment better. Before this model run the spread was pretty wide now we are starting to see some agreement.

Now the question does this hold over night. Going to be another nail biter. So I am in a holding pattern here in Broward. Also paying close attention to the wind field information since an expanding area of hurricane force winds would render the exact location of Dorian less important. Need some data from weather stations in the Bahamas to understand the true "on the ground" situation.




I would tend to disagree with that. The eye looks to be going slightly north of the Bahamas giving it at least a hopelly weaker south/west part of the hurricane hit. It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.

The problem is that it's going to be left churning in hot water with nothing to sap it's strength land wise like a Cuba as it slows and approaches Florida. It's hard to imagine it staying less than a strong 3 or a weaker 4 when it hits the coast at full strength but with it projected to slow, the high over Florida is really going to determine if this is a monster or a really bad headache by how long it takes to get smacked north and then northeast, quite possibly bouncing up the coast as it goes North.

Most of the models including the NHC barely have it going inland before it gets corralled along the coast up and back out to sea. It's hard to determine the rain situation because it's still hard to tell where it's going to hit even with it being only a day and a half out. Usually, the cone of possibility is a little tighter at this point but it needs to be underlined that this storm is exceptionally unstable as far as tracking.

Lastly, if you're biting your nails wondering if you should stay or go, I'd tend to say it's better to go. Twenty gallons of gas was the cheapest investment so many never made when Katrina hit places like Gulfport and basically left grass and concrete slabs where houses full of people USED to stand.




I am going to disagree also. I've rarely felt so little confidence in a forecast, and the fact that the NHC track is a big circle after three days is reflective of that. Dorian is turning west very soon, and will turn north at some point. Where Dorian turns north is a great big question right now. I don't see that being resolved in the next 24 hours.

--------------------
Storm Hound
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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100266 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:48 PM

Yes https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/ (click on other years, and "Graphics Archive" for the individual storms.

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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100267 - Fri Aug 30 2019 06:57 PM

The 12Z FSU model runs are all in agreement with a pronounced northerly turn up or near the east coast of Florida with only one outlier farther west. We’ll see of subsequent runs continue to indicate that. The next 24-48 hours will be significant.

--------------------
Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 10/4/2


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100268 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:02 PM

Quote:

Yes https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/ (click on other years, and "Graphics Archive" for the individual storms.




Thank you so much, MikeC! I picked Matthew for a test as the name has come up lately as a comparison of Dorian. Funny I remember Matthew well now, but I expected to see something that looked like a Dorian coming across:

Matthew Archives

This is exactly what I was looking for!

Side note: Londovir, there appears to be no shortage of work for good web application developers.


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Doombot!
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100269 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:06 PM

I think the 00Z package will really be the "make or break" forecast. If it's still recurving then it's looking a lot better for Florida. It is south and /or west, then this is just the usual flip flopping that happens run to run.

BTW, when does that product come out?


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Cindi
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100271 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:13 PM

Quote:

Quote:

That 20 gallons of gas saved our lives last year because we evacuated when Hurricane Michael hit our area and destroyed our home. If you think you need to leave - its better to do so, than to wish you did after its too late.




Hi, My mom lives in Cocoa just east of US-1 in a concrete block home on high ground built in the 1970s. It's in the High Point neighborhood, about midway between the river and US-1. I was wondering if those homes in Gulfport and Panama City that were destroyed were wood frame or concrete block? Also, any thoughts from anyone on whether a concrete block home that age in Brevard County should be able to withstand winds of ~140 mph?

- Larry in Gainesville




Both. From huge fancy brick homes, to huge cinder/concrete block buildings, to wood frame homes. It didn't matter if you lived in the wealther parts of town (Lynn Haven) or Millville, Parker, Springfield area. Huge churches crumbled to the ground. It was hit or miss - some homes flattened, while the house across the street was fine. No rhyme or reason. Some were crushed by trees, but others it was the wind. Before Hurricane Michael, I would have said a concrete block home should be fine. But not now - if she is in the path of the storm she should evacuate if her house is not safe. FYI - most people think Hurricane Michael hit "Panama City Beach" but it actually hit homes on the east side of the bridge - Panama City, Parker, Springfield, Callaway, Lynn Haven, Mexico Beach, etc. Most of the homes in Mexico Beach were whipped clean off their slabs.


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100272 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:14 PM

Quote:

Question:

Is there an online archive of NHC cone histories and/or spaghetti plot histories for named storms?

I'd love to see how the predictions wriggle this way and that over the life of storms we remember. I know they do shift and surprise at times, and even during a storm's life I can lose track of where they were forecast a day or two before...

If not, what a fabulous idea for a sponsor paid website!



The SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) has been fairly on target from the beginning it appears on this storm, with some fluctuation north and south, but mostly near target.




You'll find most stuff like Maria, Sandy, Andrew, Katrina and the other horrific storms all have Nat Geo. or History Channel type documentaries. Not sure if theres a site that has someone doing running commentary on all storms that weren't fish spinners. A lot of work tracking more than plotting/forcasting data down unless you could get some of the NHC folks like Avila, Pasch, Berg and so on who would have reems of both paper/computer as well as memory data on every storm. I don't know if those guys are straight hard data guys or if they could color the storms in to show a little more life. That's where you'd find your audience is if you could color some malevolence and a certain spirit or life to storms. Especially the ones that bucked all traditional thought and insight by living through what everyone thought were unasailable conditions like super dry north west conditions to the storm and jetstreams that should have kept things tamer but for whatever reason, the storm just walked through it and did horrible things.

It seems freaking bizarre that we're a decade and a half away from Katrina when Mike, Daniel and a bunch of us sat on here watching Katrina in horror as it just spun spun spun right towards New Orleans/Golf Coast. When we saw on the radar and from people's reports that the worst hit to the east we were almost giddy with happiness that New Orleans didn't take a full on hit but obviously history shows that our happiness was horribly misplaced. I mean we all expected there would be flooding but levee after levee after levee breaching. Pumps which were reporting that they were still working even while underwater pumping water to places that essentially flooded the same water back into the city. It's a godsend that Lake Pontchartrain didn't just take over all of New Orleans making it impossible to rebuild. There was A LOT of discussion about if they should rebuild with a ton of city under 15 feet of water.

I remember us commenting over and over on how good it was that it was slowing from the shallow waters leading into the coast but none of us truly having a flipping clue about how bad storm surge could be and how Katrina might have landed as a 3 but it's storm surge was whipped up to a level 5 storm's strength and that unlike the winds, it didn't really slow down that much. Parts of Golfport getting hit with THIRTY FEET of stacking flood waters that just kept flowing in and if felt like it was never going to flood back out.

Man, that was a loooong night. radar and cellphone calls from people...It's slowing slowing slowing...wait...flooding...more flooding...okay reports of mass flooding...parts of the city were disappearing and the bad news just kept coming and coming and we thought it was bad but the true bad only came the next day when it was reported that parts of Gulfport and Biloxi were just...gone. Not from wind but from water. I still remember that while the cameras were up, people were partying in New Orleans because it was just another hurricane coming in.

Anyways, that's probably the stuff you'd want. You'd need some colorful guys from NHC to fill it all in though.

Obviously Galveston has 200 movies and books written on it being the worst in history.
Maria, Sandy, Katrina and there's a BUNCH of late 1800, earth 1900 storms when they only knew a hurricane was coming when peoples ears started popping and the ocean birds were trying to get off the ocean so fast you could hardly see them. There was a storm (I forget which) that was so huge its storm clouds and wind fields literally filled the entire Gulf of Mexico. There were shots taken from the ISS that were just stunning.


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gvl, fl
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Cindi]
      #100273 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:20 PM

Thanks, Cindi. I think they will make a decision later tomorrow or early Sunday. She just got new hurricane shutters last year, so that should possibly help some, whether she's there in the house or not.

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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100274 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:24 PM

Quote:

It is wobbling like crazy because it's pretty small size wise given it's overall strength. This leaves modelling it very very difficult because it's so unstable. It's still going to be small and tight at the Bahamas so it's still potentially going to be wobbling like it has been.




He has been on target pretty much all day. Any wobbles that have occurred today had no effect on overall track. The models don't care about wobbles anyway... they are looking at grand scale factors. There are handful of factors influencing Dorian movement, a turn to the N has been predicted for nearly 24 hours (shown first in advisor #23). The question has always been WHEN. With each update the NHC has increased this timing, mainly because Dorain is slowing down. At one point he could have gotten over the west coast of FL, now that seems extremely unlikely.

If you watch the animated NHC cone you can see its been east of forecast most of its run. Today it was behaved better but its currently ever so slightly NE of predicted (again). So is this a trend or a wobble? Time will tell.


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100275 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:25 PM

From Psybe on Katrina:
Quote:

Parts of Golfport getting hit with THIRTY FEET of stacking flood waters that just kept flowing in and if felt like it was never going to flood back out.




Thanks. Hey, is this the highest storm surge I remember from the past 15 to 20 years?

Not sure if this on topic for Dorian, but curious.


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Cindi]
      #100276 - Fri Aug 30 2019 07:33 PM

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

That 20 gallons of gas saved our lives last year because we evacuated when Hurricane Michael hit our area and destroyed our home. If you think you need to leave - its better to do so, than to wish you did after its too late.




Hi, My mom lives in Cocoa just east of US-1 in a concrete block home on high ground built in the 1970s. It's in the High Point neighborhood, about midway between the river and US-1. I was wondering if those homes in Gulfport and Panama City that were destroyed were wood frame or concrete block? Also, any thoughts from anyone on whether a concrete block home that age in Brevard County should be able to withstand winds of ~140 mph?

- Larry in Gainesville









There were some darn stable houses on concrete pads with multiple cars/trucks and so on that were left with just the concrete pads where the houses were built on. Whole families that stayed, retreated up a level when the water started, retreated a level higher or into the attics, either got drowned in the attic or took chainsaws and cut themselves holes to the top of their houses. This was before the structures failed and the houses were swept away and out to sea. Gone. No owners left to even rebuild or lay claim to the ownership of a property.

I'm obviously in Canada and well away from a lot of what the southern USA/Caribbean and so on have to deal with. Still, we get remnants of hurricanes that come up here and rain the hell out of things. Before I started tracking and learning about hurricanes I have to admit I had that sort of "party atmosphere" mentality when it came to storms. Meh, how bad could they be, right? Now I know it can get bad enough that it's just too late. You can't run because the car is under three (of what could be THIRTY) feet of water, power goes and any idea of running that generator to keep pumping your basement out goes to hell because it's flooded out too. The winds turn 2x4's into wooden rockets that fly so fast they impale right through brick walls. The storm doesn't just blow over like a nice spring storm. It's not 20 mins, it's more like two or more hours of horrible winds and rain. The earth saturates from the rain and trees start falling on everything including your house. Tornados spawn so fast you can't even see them on the radar until they're on the ground.

God, there are SO many reasons to run from a hurricane for me now and I've only sat through a couple of weaker H2s on holiday when we couldn't run from the Dominican and Cuba. Sadly though a hurricane to most is just boarding up the windows so your stupid glass won't break. People never learn until it's too late.

NOW, as for the storm, I can't remember a time when the NHC has been this soft on a forecast. I know some are discounting the wobbles Dorian has been doing but they're 10-20 mile wobbles from either the couple of bouts of dry air it's had or from the prevailing iwinds. In any case it has a nice (or nasty depending on how you look at it) low in front of it. Definitely some strengthening although I can't see it even getting near to going through the panhandle and reforming in the Gulf. IT would have had to take a more southerly track and that would have put it over The Domincan and Cuba which would have beat the hell out of the storm.

My concern right now would be flooding. That's one hell of a turn it's going to be taking and you have to wonder how long it's going to sit in place before being pushed up the coast. Won't be like Harvey sat in Texas but from almost every forecast it's going to be going from basically W to N or N by N/E.

Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 07:53 PM)


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MichaelA
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100277 - Fri Aug 30 2019 08:22 PM

The 18Z runs of the GFS, GFS-old, HMON, NAVGEM are all trending more eastward indicating that Dorian may remain offshore of FL. That would be good news except for the immediate coast due to surge and surf action.

--------------------
Michael
2019 “guess:” 13/7/3
2019 Actual: 10/4/2


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BloodstarModerator
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Why I Have Doubts About the GFS Model [Re: MichaelA]
      #100279 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:13 PM

Looking at the 08/30/2019 - 18Z GFS model I am not sold. There's a few particular issues I have with the model run.


  • Initialization of Dorian is weaker than the actual storm. GFS has consistently initialized weaker than the actual storm strength. I suspect that the weaker pressures lead to a weaker upper level flow which could strengthen high pressure, slowing any erosion from low pressures breaking down the high.
  • Upper level flows seem to have Dorian moving north into the high pressure ridge before the upper level flow would induce northerly movement.
  • The cold front seems really strong and digging awfully deep for early September. I know, just because it's early doesn't mean you can't have a stronger cold front. But I would really like to see the low pressure and associated front form as strong as GFS seems to predict.


I'm just a wee Meteorologist/Climatologist type, and Tropical cyclones are not my focus. But this is what I am seeing that make me doubt the GFS run.

Thoughts?

--------------------
M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2020. (Sigh LOL)


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TheQueensBarge
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100280 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:15 PM

High Point will be ok regarding surge; you're not going to get any. However, you may lose the roof and windows and trees may come down and it's all over. I strongly suggest your mom make a short vacation over towards south Orlando (Rosen resort always makes it availabe to refugees) or to Tampa. A mild inconvenience is far perferable to death.

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TheBeach
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100281 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:20 PM

PLEASE ask your mother to leave! I lived in Biloxi during Katrina, 7 miles north of the Coast, but near the Biloxi River.My house was built up and I had the highest property in the area, so everyone parked vehicles, boats, riding mowers,etc. in my yard. I only left because of the wind, never expecting that my home would flood. We came back to what looked like no damage,though all the vehicles were up against a fence. We assumed from wind. But when we entered our home, it had flooded! So PLEASE advise ANYONE to be safe rather than sorry!

It looks like Dorian could stall near the coastline, pushing water up rivers for hours or days. You can't out swim that.

--------------------
Survived Camille , Katrina, and many in between.


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Doombot!
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MichaelA]
      #100282 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:24 PM

Several observations:

1. Dorian is starting to take on the look of an annual hurricane.

2. The eye is large (in relation to the storm) and bone dry as observed in the water vapor

3. For about the past 3 hours, movement appears to be due west, slightly ahead of and to the south of the forecast track.

My big question is if this will translate into a deeper westerly penatration than the models are starting to suggest.


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Psyber
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Re: Why I Have Doubts About the GFS Model [Re: Bloodstar]
      #100283 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:25 PM

Quote:

Looking at the 08/30/2019 - 18Z GFS model I am not sold. There's a few particular issues I have with the model run.


  • Initialization of Dorian is weaker than the actual storm. GFS has consistently initialized weaker than the actual storm strength. I suspect that the weaker pressures lead to a weaker upper level flow which could strengthen high pressure, slowing any erosion from low pressures breaking down the high.
  • Upper level flows seem to have Dorian moving north into the high pressure ridge before the upper level flow would induce northerly movement.
  • The cold front seems really strong and digging awfully deep for early September. I know, just because it's early doesn't mean you can't have a stronger cold front. But I would really like to see the low pressure and associated front form as strong as GFS seems to predict.


I'm just a wee Meteorologist/Climatologist type, and Tropical cyclones are not my focus. But this is what I am seeing that make me doubt the GFS run.

Thoughts?




Dorian just went to H4 from the HH's. At some point, it's going to start barrelling forward just because it can. With the slowing over those waters it's going to get stronger.

I see that NHC has it barely on the land which may make sense given how slow it's going to slow down to. Still, so much uncertainty with the storm hitting basically in a day and a half. Their cone of uncertainly is roughly 150 miles wide and the hurricane is all but there.

WEIRD storm.


Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 09:34 PM)


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gvl, fl
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: TheQueensBarge]
      #100284 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:26 PM

Quote:

High Point will be ok regarding surge; you're not going to get any. However, you may lose the roof and windows and trees may come down and it's all over. I strongly suggest your mom make a short vacation over towards south Orlando (Rosen resort always makes it availabe to refugees) or to Tampa. A mild inconvenience is far perferable to death.




They are thinking about coming to Gainesville and staying in a hotel. Our dogs don't get along and they both have medical issues, not to mention my house is in a neighborhood with countless trees. I suggested Orlando already but they seemed to think it would also be a dangerous area. I'll mention your suggestion. Gainesville is a 3-hour drive each way and it doesn't sound very sensible or practical to me.


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Doombot!]
      #100285 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:27 PM

Quote:

For about the past 3 hours, movement appears to be due west, slightly ahead of and to the south of the forecast track.




Not south of forecast but clear W motion vs NW before.

Just watched Levi - Tropical Tidbits video - to say the situation is complex would be an understatement, way too many possible scenarios are still on the table.


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100287 - Fri Aug 30 2019 09:35 PM

Quote:

Quote:

For about the past 3 hours, movement appears to be due west, slightly ahead of and to the south of the forecast track.




Not south of forecast but clear W motion vs NW before.

Just watched Levi - Tropical Tidbits video - to say the situation is complex would be an understatement, way too many possible scenarios are still on the table.




WOW, Cnn is going hardcore on this. Saying that its possible it might hit a 5. They're basing it on the fact it just dropped 20mb in the space of a couple hours which is pretty solid evidence. That's a CRAZY drop. From H1 to H4 in 24 hours. If it does get over land it's expected to take DAYS to clear florida as it bounces up against that high with the possibility of offshore storms firing and adding a bit more energy to whats spinning overland.

Damn. The 11:00 will hopefully have some better news.


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Joeyfl
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100289 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:03 PM

It is important for everyone in Florida continue to monitor this, do not buy into a east shift just yet, we can only hope that's the case but the situation is so fragile any slight deviations in upper level pattern with respects to troughs across the northern us and ridges nearby can have huge impacts in what maybe a historical event.

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kspkap
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100290 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:04 PM

There have been times when hurricane winds increase at landfall. It’s almost as if it’s giving all it has. Andrew in ‘92 was deemed a Cat 4, but was upgraded 10 years later as a Cat 5.

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TheQueensBarge
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100291 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:09 PM

Probably more dangerous to drive to Gainesville than to south Orlando. Going to _some_ hotel in the Orlando west area would be far preferable to staying home. Just tell her to get on SR-528 and stop at the first hotel in the vicinity of Orlando International. Do NOT stay home. That's the dirty nasty side of the storm. And do it sooner rather than later.

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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: kspkap]
      #100292 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:12 PM

I remember hearing many years ago, maybe on the Weather Channel, that a large hurricane can make its own weather patterns that can guide its path. I'm sure it was a statement that was taken out of context or has no value, but I still remember it. Is there any truth to that?

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Littlebit
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100293 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:26 PM

I remember hearing the same thing and was wondering about that with Dorian. Is it that a large hurricane meaning one that has more coverage, or a large hurricane meaning one that has more strength can do this? Or is that not the case?

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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100294 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:36 PM

Quote:

I remember hearing many years ago, maybe on the Weather Channel, that a large hurricane can make its own weather patterns that can guide its path. I'm sure it was a statement that was taken out of context or has no value, but I still remember it. Is there any truth to that?




Large storms CAN make their own weather however usually it's larger sized storms with a larger windfields and more leading storms that feed the storm more energy to keep it going despite other pressures against it.

It needs to be said that even 1 1/2 days out from landfall, that the NHC can only tell that it might hit Florida, might even make it to the Gulf of Mexico (most of us can pretty honestly say it won't make it that far despite the crazy), might walk all the way into the mainland or it might dance up the Eastern Seaboard making messes or not.

This is EXCEPTIONALLY bizarre because for almost two decades, the NHC forecasting tool has been pretty much the best way to guestimate where a storm is going. At this point, a lot of the other models are basically broken or just forecasting a path down the middle of all the bobbles it's had.

I know people like MikeC would know but I've never seen such a resilient little storm bounce its way from unfavourable areas into small favourable ones and then back north so many times. It's been going 10-30 miles north and then 10-30 miles south for days now.

Since the storm just dropped 20mb in pressure, it forced the storm up yet higher into an H4 and as it gets stronger(and it should considering the favorable conditions), it will be able to resist more and more types of weather that fights against it.

There are news places that are saying this could hit Florida at an H5 or at least a strong H4 so IF you are in Florida, you should be going North about as fast as the law allows you. Staying in place anywhere in the Florida panhandle and expecting this storm not to flatten your house with you in it is folly.

At some point...either over water (we hope), it's going to stop going west and be forced north. It quite probably is going to make some sort of landfall though. The problem with a sudden 90-degree turn is it doesn't just turn on a dime and fly north. No, it'll take its sweet time turning and whatever is under wherever it turns is going to get flooded perhaps like they've never seen before.


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100295 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:38 PM

Quote:

Hi, My mom lives in Cocoa just east of US-1 in a concrete block home on high ground built in the 1970s. It's in the High Point neighborhood, about midway between the river and US-1. I was wondering if those homes in Gulfport and Panama City that were destroyed were wood frame or concrete block? Also, any thoughts from anyone on whether a concrete block home that age in Brevard County should be able to withstand winds of ~140 mph?

- Larry in Gainesville




The roof might blow off. Having solid walls is nice, but a ceiling is important too.

It may likely that hurricane straps have been installed since the 70's as it makes the insurance more affordable. And you can be sure the roof has been redone by now. But at 140 mpg I wouldn't stay there no matter what. (Maybe I would being a storm sicko for a death defying adventure, but it would be crazy, and maybe deadly.)

Orlando might not be a good place to stay, too close to a possible hit. Imagine being stuck in Orlando with no power. I have friends who left Pinellas County to go to Orlando to be away from Charlie and ended up having a traumatic horrible experience when back here it was mostly calm and relaxed.

Have your mom come to Clearwater Beach and stay on the beach. Looks like we are clear of the worst part of the storm and if you call, I bet you get a good deal. The national and international negative attention is not doing Florida vacation rental businesses any favors. But we'd love to host east coast Dorian escapees!

Beach Resort Condos



Edited by Prospero (Fri Aug 30 2019 10:39 PM)


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Littlebit]
      #100296 - Fri Aug 30 2019 10:42 PM

Quote:

I remember hearing the same thing and was wondering about that with Dorian. Is it that a large hurricane meaning one that has more coverage, or a large hurricane meaning one that has more strength can do this? Or is that not the case?




Large is generally used to describe it's physical size. Dorian is not a normal H4 which should have much larger storms around it, feeding it.

Hurricanes are just lesser windstorms with lots of warm water creating convection up above the normal clouds into thunderheads which turn into large storms which turn into hurricane food. All of this usually to the North West of them as most of our storms go West/West-North West.

Go check out a good doppler radar video of a hurricane and it'll show you all the thunderstorms firing up all around it before they're all drawn into the hurricane as food.


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100297 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:00 PM

Quote:

Have your mom come to Clearwater Beach and stay on the beach. Looks like we are clear of the worst part of the storm and if you call, I bet you get a good deal.



Of course I am saying that based on the last few hours of guesses. But the odds appear to be much better here than the East Coast or Orlando. And it is a great beach with some excellent dining and awesome sunsets.

But we are not 100% out of any risks until Dorian is far away from Florida.



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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100298 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:02 PM

11PM is out - small shift E but the models are seeing a weak spot in the ridge... so due west then hard right turn to the north.

Threat to Keys going down, threat to Northern FL and the GA/SC coast going up. S FL, central and Space Coast about the same, could be on your doorstep on Labor Day. Slow approach then stall before heading off. Wind field about the same = 30 miles from small, compact core center of Cat 4 level hurricane force winds, then 105 miles out of TS winds. Staying a bit offshore or north keeps the worse winds out to sea but slow motion means the coastal areas get pounded for nearly a full day. TS winds on the coast Monday AM so plan accordingly.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100299 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:03 PM

I want to caution folks with model runs, we don't have a trend yet (as far as direction) we do have a speed trend, though, slow. The shifts east on many of the models are welcome, but the UK and GFS ensemble set still indicates a lot of potential for it to go the other way. It just gets much more difficult and subtle when the storm slows down. The fact the minor tweaks made by the ensembles show different tracks like that highlights it even more, especially since a lot differ than the deterministic run.

Bahamas (Grand Bahama and Abaco) in particular are going to get Hard by Dorian.


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100300 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:18 PM

Quote:

I want to caution folks with model runs, we don't have a trend yet (as far as direction) we do have a speed trend, though, slow. The shifts east on many of the models are welcome, but the UK and GFS ensemble set still indicates a lot of potential for it to go the other way. It just gets much more difficult and subtle when the storm slows down.

Bahamas (Grand Bahama and Abaco) in particular are going to get Hard by Dorian.




I would add that the more unstable a storm is, the larger the buffer zone you should apply to this. As Mike said this is not a normal storm in how it's behaving directionally. You can only say a storm is getting stronger so many times before it becomes pointless to even say that it's 5kt stronger. Directionally however there is an incredible wide area of the Florida panhandle and perhaps more northern parts as well for rain. The Bahamas are probably going to take a direct hit but that is about all that seems to be set in stone.

MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT...for those who don't know 160 KT is 184miles an hour.

I'm a little surprised by the barometer reading. 948 seems high for an H4.

Edited by Psyber (Fri Aug 30 2019 11:19 PM)


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gailwarning
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gvl, fl]
      #100301 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:20 PM

If she has a flat or gable end roof, I'd be concerned. Is there a garage and is it a hurricane rated door? Will she have shutters? Most structures will hold up as long as the building is not breached. Roofs, windows, and doors are most vulnerable. Reinforce those areas if at all possible.

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Colleen A.Moderator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100302 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:28 PM

I also heard that, my friend. I don't know if that ever happened ...but it wouldn't surprise me if it actually did happen. Stay safe.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Prospero
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gailwarning]
      #100303 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:30 PM

Quote:

I want to caution folks with model runs, we don't have a trend yet (as far as direction) we do have a speed trend, though, slow. The shifts east on many of the models are welcome, but the UK and GFS ensemble set still indicates a lot of potential for it to go the other way. It just gets much more difficult and subtle when the storm slows down.



Thanks MikeC, every time I think I know what a storm might do, I seem to be wrong. Too much prep it misses, not enough it hits!

Definitely like the idea of this going out to sea, but happy I filled up my tanks today, and set myself up to batten down the hatches if need be.


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bahamaweather
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100304 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:34 PM

Writing from central Abaco here in the Bahamas. Unfortunately even with the shift to the east in the model runs this evening, it still looks as if we will take a pretty much direct hit here according to the latest update

Any idea on when weather may start going downhill for us here?

Any trends that any of you more knowledgeable at there are seeing that might have us luck out?

--------------------
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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: bahamaweather]
      #100305 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:51 PM

Quote:

Writing from central Abaco here in the Bahamas. Unfortunately even with the shift to the east in the model runs this evening, it still looks as if we will take a pretty much direct hit here according to the latest update

Any idea on when weather may start going downhill for us here?

Any trends that any of you more knowledgeable at there are seeing that might have us luck out?




The last post I saw from Bryan Norcross (which was earlier this evening) looked to be saying tropical storm force winds would be starting in the Bahamas area around you somewhere after Saturday 8pm EDT, maybe around 10pm? I imagine that's changed with the storm intensity changes, though.

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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Prospero]
      #100306 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:52 PM

Quote:


Thanks MikeC, every time I think I know what a storm might do, I seem to be wrong. Too much prep it misses, not enough it hits!

Definitely like the idea of this going out to sea, but happy I filled up my tanks today, and set myself up to batten down the hatches if need be.




I usually see "the cone" and roll my eye at about 50% of it. I'm not dismissing any of it this time. This storm hits an H5, even if it doesn't land at all and it'll be in the record books for probably one of the weirdest storms ever. I'm but one small voice but I've never seen this in like two decades of watching.

Once Harvy was just rainstorms, his flooding was epic and the track of those storms was bizarre as well so I don't want to minimize it but Dorian is like that little storm that IS right now.

It's still almost two days out but people who are in Florida need to understand that there is NOTHING to be gained by hmming and hawing and wondering if they should leave. Those deals usually ending up with people telling you to "hunker down" and "avoid weight bearing walls in your house just in case it collapses" and "don't forget that some people can drown in their attics if the storm surge is high enough".

The storm surge is going to be epic wherever this hits. I think I'd rather be sitting in a hotel in Alabama or something..not home but not going to risk death/risk putting the fact you foolishly stayed and are now a weight sitting on the emergency response team's minds because you didn't get out when you should have.


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gailwarning
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: TheQueensBarge]
      #100307 - Fri Aug 30 2019 11:55 PM

I need to add to that. Don't just get in the car and drive anywhere hoping to get a hotel room. Get a solid reservation before you go. I would be shocked if the rooms across a lot of inland FL are not already filling up.

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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: bahamaweather]
      #100308 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:03 AM

Quote:

Writing from central Abaco here in the Bahamas. Unfortunately even with the shift to the east in the model runs this evening, it still looks as if we will take a pretty much direct hit here according to the latest update

Any idea on when weather may start going downhill for us here?

Any trends that any of you more knowledgeable at there are seeing that might have us luck out?





Ummm, I don't think anybody disagrees that a 4th category hurricane is about to hit you directly. You have about a day before the tropical-storm-force winds and small t-stroms start firing. From then it's straight downhill.

Find a place to hide. I really don't know what else to say to someone who is about to take a direct hit from an H4. Stock up on water, if you have drains in a basement, plug them because the water will be coming up out of the floor and not draining because everything draining will be filled. Food. Sand bag your doors and easy access to your house by flood waters. If I lived in a place like that I'd have those zip sealable bags for putting clothing inside that are like small garbage bags. I'd put a bunch of clothing in those.

Pray? Geeze. My own prayers are with you.

I'm sure there will be some lunatics somewhere there behind normal glass windows drinking beers, cheering to the storm and partying like a possible life-ending hurricane isn't coming. I think every hurricane comes with a certain percentage of those people.

Maybe go hang out with them and steal their beer?

Actually I will give you some good info. Here's a prep list from one of the other forums: Emergency Preparedness Kit


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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100309 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:22 AM

Not sure if I'm reading it right yet, but looks like the 0Z GFS is a pull to the right from the 18Z run, with Dorian staying off the coast of Florida (closest approach around JAX 1AM Wed), before raking Charleston 7PM Thurs and dragging along both SC and NC coastlines before exiting Nags Head, NC 1AM Fri.

GFS-Legacy hits a more definitive wall and doesn't even come as close to Florida, moving instead nearly northward into Myrtle Beach, SC around 7AM Wed, digging in a little of SC/NC, and exiting about the same place as GFS but 1AM Thurs instead.

I'll be curious to see the next Euro, though.

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Londovir


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gailwarning]
      #100310 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:24 AM

0z GFS shifted east toward SC (As well as the 0z Legacy GFS)
0z UKMET shifted to Out to Sea (Big jump from 24 hours ago)
0z Icon landfalls near Stuart

The models generally moved away from Florida today. Still plenty of time for that to change again. Hopefully it will still show that tomorrow at this time. The GFS spares the Bahamas from the worst. Not that there will be no impact to the Bahamas/Florida, but not a direct hit.

I wouldn't bet on just one set, though especially with the system hauling west right now, a little quicker than the models indicated.


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100311 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:34 AM

Quote:

Not sure if I'm reading it right yet, but looks like the 0Z GFS is a pull to the right from the 18Z run, with Dorian staying off the coast of Florida (closest approach around JAX 1AM Wed), before raking Charleston 7PM Thurs and dragging along both SC and NC coastlines before exiting Nags Head, NC 1AM Fri.

GFS-Legacy hits a more definitive wall and doesn't even come as close to Florida, moving instead nearly northward into Myrtle Beach, SC around 7AM Wed, digging in a little of SC/NC, and exiting about the same place as GFS but 1AM Thurs instead.

I'll be curious to see the next Euro, though.




Tough sell. There's some weirdness happening to the high over Florida. Check out the Goes.

GOES Wide Atlantic Water Looped

Looks like a huge storm is firing off the back of Florida? There's another low in front of Dorian that looks like its softening that high up. At the end of the loop, the wall blocking Dorian going far into Florida looks a heck of a lot weaker than it does at the beginning IMO.


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Rhino
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gailwarning]
      #100312 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:10 AM

Why do you keep saying it's less than 2 days out? It as 3+ days out right now, so there is a significant amount of things that can happen. All should prepare for worst case scenario at this point as there is still a lot of uncertainty this far out.

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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Rhino]
      #100313 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:41 AM

Quote:

Why do you keep saying it's less than 2 days out? It as 3+ days out right now, so there is a significant amount of things that can happen. All should prepare for worst case scenario at this point as there is still a lot of uncertainty this far out.




Sorry, I kept meaning the Bahamas. They're the first strike zone.

Right, it's a long ways away from the continental USA, especially with the slowing. It's still pushing West though.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100314 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:08 AM

As expected, the NHC track at 0500 has moved east, but conservatively. Will be interesting to see the 0600Z GFS in a few hours.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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IsoFlame
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100315 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:47 AM

Quote:

The models generally moved away from Florida today. Still plenty of time for that to change again. Hopefully it will still show that tomorrow at this time. The GFS spares the Bahamas from the worst. Not that there will be no impact to the Bahamas/Florida, but not a direct hit.

I wouldn't bet on just one set, though especially with the system hauling west right now, a little quicker than the models indicated.



Increase in forward speed late in the forecast period is good news for already rain-soaked areas in Florida. Unfortunately, the shift of track to the east side of the peninsula, near and parallel to the coast from the Cape northward, will prolong Dorian's major hurricane status after the re-curve. 5 am update has Dorian at 125 mph crossing 29N just east of where I live (one block off the Atlantic Ocean in Volusia County) late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Best hope for my area if this pans out will be an eyewall replacement cycle offshore after Dorian gets past the Cape, similar to Matthew's 20-25 miles off the coast that spared coastal Volusia the worst of Matthew in 2016.

Intensity discussion from NHC 5am advisory:
Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to-forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period, increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to cause some weakening.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Sat Aug 31 2019 06:06 AM)


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IsoFlame
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100316 - Sat Aug 31 2019 06:04 AM

Quote:

As expected, the NHC track at 0500 has moved east, but conservatively. Will be interesting to see the 0600Z GFS in a few hours.



From NWS Melbourne pre-dawn discussion:
Sun-Tue...Hurricane Dorian is forecast to remain a major hurricane as it moves W to W/NW reaching Great Abaco and Grand Bahama late Sunday/Sunday night along with a decrease in forward speed. A break in the ridge aloft should allow Dorian to turn NW to North
Mon-Tue, bringing this major hurricane close to the Florida east coast. 00Z Model guidance has shifted the track to the east, a little farther offshore the coast. If this trend persists, this would reduce but not eliminate the wind and (rain) flooding threat over EC FL. However, severe beach erosion and some surge remain likely. It is important to note that all of east central Florida remains in the track cone of uncertainty. Due to the trend in model track guidance, NHC has not issued a Hurricane Watch yet for any of FL but a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch is possible later today along portions of the FL east coast.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100318 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:43 AM

Big shift east overnight to the track forecast. Looking better for FL, especially S FL (Dade / Broward) as we would be on the weak side of a strong, but compact storm moving away from us.

For the Bahamas this is when small wobbles could mean big differences. Dorain still has a small wind field so +/- 20 miles could shift wind speeds by 50 mph in your location. Two good visualization tracking tools below:

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap - use this map with the satellite and hurricane layer on, it has the NHC line and you can zoom in to see the eye relative to the forecast and your location. Not sure how good the Miami radar sees far out but there is a radar layer too you can toggle.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/ - go here, click on Dorian, a popup window will show a map and the track, you can animate and turn on various layers, I find the water vapor at 2km or the visible (IR at night) at 1km to provide the best picture of the situation.

Currently tracking right down the line. As many learned during Charley a slight turn could be a signal... however these storms do wobble so if he is off course don't panic and try to work out the long term motion.

We just got our first feel of Dorian... a downpour from an outflow channel that got caught in the ULL that is now over Cuba. Via radar I see several pop up style rain storms moving rapidly from east to west heading our way. I assume it will be like this for the next 3 days (thru Tuesday) but with increasing intensity and duration. They will come and go quickly. As Dorian passes we may experience what PR got and got stuck in a long tail of "training" style rain, leading to localized flooding thru Weds.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100319 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:46 AM

I'm out but noticed recon approaching cat5. No gulfstream 4 data yesterday and today may underrepresented the ridge strength, which when it's this borderline is a facror

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StormHound
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100320 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:48 AM

I feel somewhat ashamed to ask this. But it has been a while since I spent a lot of time looking at models, and my old links aren't so good. I wandered through the links page, but can anyone point me to a couple of good sites to loop through various model runs? Can't seem to find my old favorites. I must be getting old and can't remember things. LOL

--------------------
Storm Hound
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craigm
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100321 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:52 AM

Quote:

I feel somewhat ashamed to ask this. But it has been a while since I spent a lot of time looking at models, and my old links aren't so good. I wandered through the links page, but can anyone point me to a couple of good sites to loop through various model runs? Can't seem to find my old favorites. I must be getting old and can't remember things. LOL




Here ya go
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

--------------------
Why I'm here:
Weather Junkie


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Rubber Ducky
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100322 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:52 AM

https://www.cyclocane.com/dorian-storm-tracker/

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gsand
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100323 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:53 AM

This is my go to page:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

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------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hazel 1954 Camille 1969 Agnes 1972 Bob 1991 Erin 1995 Charley 2004 Frances 2004 Jeanne 2004 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017
2019 Forecast- 11/4/2


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StormHound
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: gsand]
      #100324 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:01 AM

Much appreciated!

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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: StormHound]
      #100325 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:24 AM

Got a bit of Venturi effect going on between the ULL to the SW and ridge to the NE causing this acceleration. Dorain outran some of his own outflow as the western edge collapsed but is now rebuilding. Very dynamic environment. Motion just N of due W, right on the NHC line still.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100327 - Sat Aug 31 2019 11:28 AM

11AM update and another shift east, might never reach the coast of FL and stay out to sea (fingers crossed). Very close to Cat 5 levels here, but still small with hurricane winds ony out to 30 miles, but the TS winds have expanded slightly out to 115 miles, however they vary widely.

Central FL and Space Coast still need to keep close tabs on Dorian. JAX is look at another bad surge event due to a prolonged onshore flow.

Going to slow to a crawl over the northern Bahamas (brutal for them) then take the opening in the ridge to the north.


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greywolf
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100328 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:02 PM

Hi folks - newbie here. Really appreciate the knowledge many of you have, I have learned a lot in just
the last week or so. One question (and I hope it is not a dumb question): in looking at the analog storms
to Dorian, I couldn't help but notice that all but one (Andrew, I think) took a rather similar path to Dorian......
initially heading NW toward Florida, but then eventually veering to the N/NE, and never making landfall. Is it just
a coincidence that Dorian took about the same path, or should we be putting more faith in the analogs as
predictors of what may happen? I know that the reason Dorian is now veering to the E/NE is that the high
pressure ridge to the north is now breaking up, and I have no idea whether a similar scenario would have
happened with most of the analogs, but I'm guessing that is very unlikely. Any thoughts/comments?


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100329 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:03 PM

12z models starting to roll in. Some appear to be announcing that a certain amount of windshield wipering could be going on, as models continue to adjust to a) the ULL/MLL to Dorian's west having never pulled further south as earlier expected b) Dorian's arrival to the area still running behind earlier schedules c) Dorian kept tracking a bit north of expected (largely in response to a+b+strength) d) New surface low attempting to form in the Gulf west of Dorian that could be imparting a little touch of extra umph in the upper-levels related to its thunderstorm tops blowing off e) Failing to initialize Dorian's intensity correctly (usually initializing much weaker than reality) f) etc. .. Really, a myriad of mostly subtle but yet, taken together, substantial, synoptic + mesoscale changes. Therefore, until Dorian actually begins a pronounced and persistent track to the north, it is not all clear for Florida - especially not along the east coast of Florida.

Meanwhile, points north in the cone (Georgia to the Carolinas in particular) should begin considering making some initial hurricane prep, as while a track out to sea is now on the table (less likely, but certainly hoped for), inaction or insufficient precaution in the face of such a strong tropical cyclone could prove unwise.


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Steve86
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100330 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:06 PM

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/08/GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif



Looking at this, maybe I’m a little confused, but does t it appear as if the opening in the ridge is actually closing off over Florida and grabbing onto the the high that is to the west of Florida?

There was definitely n opening late last night and this morning but now it seems to be closing the gap.

What is your thoughts??


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doug
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100331 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:21 PM

Could not agree more. In the current sat view the trough in the mid CONUS does not seem to be making the progress anticipated. If anything the turn in the steering currents to the north has actually shifted further west than last nights position and the low to its south west is inhancing the east to west flow across the peninsula

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doug


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ObsFromNWFL
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100333 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:32 PM

I am seeing the same thing and the 12Z GFS run has shifted west a bit.

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AgentB
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100334 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:53 PM

Some of the new model runs shifted ever so slightly west. Probably to be expected with the tricky timing of a north turn around the high. You can see the lows stacking up, though. It does look like Dorian has moved a little more north than west recently. We'll see what the 2pm coordinates tell us.

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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: ObsFromNWFL]
      #100335 - Sat Aug 31 2019 12:59 PM

Quote:

I am seeing the same thing and the 12Z GFS run has shifted west a bit.




So maybe back to something like 2AM advisory #27 cone. Weak steering currents and potential stall would open up a whole can for worms. Ridge is stronger then forecast would hinder northern movement. The ULL appears to be sinking more SW. The next front might be coming in quicker, does that block or lift Dorian out? The ridge to the NE is coming down hard. Lots of variables still in play. Currently still on the NHC line, a wobble here or there but primarly due W. Basically stuck on 26N.


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100336 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:31 PM

All is relatively calm here in southwest Seminole county. Was able to find gas on my first try, but they only had regular. Only one of my neighbors is partially boarding up. I am going to wait until tomorrow morning to decide to board up and I may just do bedrooms and north and east facing windows. Can do the rest later. Still a lot of time for that decision.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100337 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:38 PM

I give up.After 40 plus years of tracking these things,I give up.Now this one may miss Florida all together.All our high tech and this happens.I need a new hobbie.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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kspkap
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge *DELETED* [Re: Psyber]
      #100338 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:39 PM

Post deleted by kspkap

Edited by kspkap (Sat Aug 31 2019 02:14 PM)


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IsoFlame
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100339 - Sat Aug 31 2019 01:48 PM

I hate it when run to run "fine-tuning" flops around like a flounder when splitting hairs is required- but its understandable given the subtle yet dynamic situation with such a formidable hurricane.
Please keep this rapid-fire, candid discussion of Dorian's influencers coming in. It helped me greatly in deciding to stay during the last hours of Matthew's run toward my coastal Volusia location.
I haven't let my guard down yet- and won't until Dorian clears the Cape's latitude a minimum of 75 miles offshore. My neighbors fled during Matthew (saw that I stayed). I stayed for Irma they did too. Don't know if the "Hey Mikey- he likes it!" effect came into play, but the neighbors declared "all clear" based on the 11 am advisory.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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AgentB
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: AgentB]
      #100340 - Sat Aug 31 2019 02:21 PM

12z Euro is rolling out now. Track as far as positioning off the coast of FL doesn't look all that different.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: AgentB]
      #100341 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:23 PM

Quote:

12z Euro is rolling out now. Track as far as positioning off the coast of FL doesn't look all that different.




Wow, incredible curve overnight. Much more and we might have a spinner after the Bahamas! It sped up even with that relatively high/unchanged pressure...that has to be the top of the scale for pressure/strength of storm.

Let's pray for a northern hit on the Bahamas and hope just a wee bit more curve so it doesn't chew up the Eastern Seaboard!

What a change from barrelling into Florida straight on from last night!


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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100342 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:31 PM

This graphic someone posted on Reddit (/u/fighterace00) that combines the track of Dorian with overlays showing the uncertainty cones is really interesting to see:



It really drives home how Dorian has tended to stay on the north/right side of the uncertainty cone for most of its entire run so far.

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Londovir


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100343 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:43 PM

Great graphic. Also of note is how much more clustered the model runs are recently with the new recon data added. The spread was really wide during the TS phase.

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IsoFlame
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100344 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:43 PM

Quote:

This graphic someone posted on Reddit (/u/fighterace00) that combines the track of Dorian with overlays showing the uncertainty cones is really interesting to see.
It really drives home how Dorian has tended to stay on the north/right side of the uncertainty cone for most of its entire run so far.




Yes, Dorian has favored the right side of the cone. However, the steady west to WNW track through today may flop Dorian onto the left side of the cone in the days to come. I'd like to think that the cone stays ahead of the actual track, but often it seems the other way around.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Sat Aug 31 2019 03:46 PM)


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TheBeach
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: kspkap]
      #100345 - Sat Aug 31 2019 03:53 PM

You spoke of a concrete home on the beach in Long Beach, MS that withstood Katrina. I remember when that was built after Camille. It replaced a beautiful old antebellum home. (I grew a few blocks from there.)
My father had built a home on the bayou in Bay St. Louis just before Katrina. His was a wooden structure on wooden pilings. ALL of the houses in that area were on concrete pilings, and not even the pilings were left after Katrina. However, my father's house stood, including the roof, though it was gutted.
The point is DO NOT trust in the building materials of a home when facing a hurricane! IF you are in a zone that needs to evacuate, GET OUT!

--------------------
Survived Camille , Katrina, and many in between.


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Steve86
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: doug]
      #100346 - Sat Aug 31 2019 04:01 PM

It seems as if the weakness in the high that was expected may be the spot that has nearly closed back in to the NE of Dorian. The high definitely seems to be building strong to the north of Dorian and the 2 seem to be in a battle possibly causing some of what appears to be north to south wobbles at times. Even the HWRF model has picked up on this recently and had a dramatic move back to the west. Everyone will need to pay close attention now through Monday for last minute changes.I think there are a lot of people in Florida after seeing this mornings track who were like oh it’s not a Florida storm now. (the news media def. seemed bummed)

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100347 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:06 PM

1700 NHC update is out and I see no discernable change to the track.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Steve86]
      #100348 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:07 PM

No real change for 5PM other then TS watches from Deerfield to Sebastian. The situation for the Bahamas is looking like worse case, 24 hours of Cat 4 pounding

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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100349 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:53 PM

Looks like 18Z GFS and GFS-L are working on my one source right now, and they are definitely west and south up to the 72 hour mark. Once again, the models are having a hard time with the ridge and other effects in play. We could possibly see another shift of the track/cone back to the left at 11pm.

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Londovir


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AgentB
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100350 - Sat Aug 31 2019 05:55 PM

18z GFS is posting now. Looks like a smidge to the west, but with the eye still offshore. If I lived east of 95 anywhere north of the storm's current position, I would still be preparing for the possibility of it going right over my house. There's still time to make preparations in a controlled, relaxed manner so you don't forget anything.

--------------------
Check the Surf


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kspkap
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge *DELETED* [Re: TheBeach]
      #100352 - Sat Aug 31 2019 06:20 PM

Post deleted by kspkap

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: kspkap]
      #100353 - Sat Aug 31 2019 07:16 PM

It does appear the 18Z GFS has gone a bit west. Let's see the 00Z Euro when she comes out. I have no plans in SW Seminole county to board up, unless the situation changes and is forecast significantly more west.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100354 - Sat Aug 31 2019 07:26 PM

I've been a bit too busy for a full rundown, but it looks like offshore is still the most likely (for Florida), however the GFS, and in particular the 18Z HWRF are shifting west again, HWRF is close enough for problems in Florida. Edit: shows landfall at Cape Canaveral /New Smyrna Beach Tuesday night.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100355 - Sat Aug 31 2019 07:38 PM

18z runs in general so far following the trend today of shifting a little bit back west and/or southwest, possibly solely the result of a forecast for a faster forward motion until the turn begins. As Levi Cowen (Tropical Tidbits) and others have pointed out, a mere one mile-per-hour error in forward speed until the turn north begins results in a 72 mile difference if the turn starts in 72 hours (and thus 72 miles closer to the coast - or even inland, if that 1 mph is faster than previously forecast).

Averaged NHC track error for the period 2010-2018 at 72 hours out was about 115 miles. No time to let one's guard down.


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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100356 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:00 PM

I normally don't say anything against our local mets (and, in fact, the last 3 days or so I've been fairly aggressively defending them against general public negativity on social media), but I have to say that I'm a little disappointed at the significant "all clear" sentiments that have been spreading here in west central FL by the local mets. They're already essentially putting out on SM sites that the storm will pass by the coast, and although that's [hopefully/probably] going to happen, I think the general model uncertainty and difficulty in analyzing this storm should be keeping them more guarded with what they're putting out right now.

The 18Z runs were all of a similar mind in nudging the storm westward from prior model runs, with the HWRF going so far as to call a landfall/ingress above the Cape - it shows how uncertain this prediction will be. I'm curious as to whether it could be a result of that missed Gulfstream flight that didn't provide updated data for the more recent runs that is now causing them to use "stale" data (do they input old/stale data for models which use them, or just run them without those parameters?). It seemed like when the original atmosphere data rolled into the models, they began their turn to the right, and now that we missed that one set of samples, the models are lagging back to the left. I feel like we have a serious need for all of the atmospheric data we can get for this storm, as the timing of ridges and troughs will make or break the path for sure.

Time will tell.

--------------------
Londovir


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100358 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:09 PM

Quote:

I normally don't say anything against our local mets (and, in fact, the last 3 days or so I've been fairly aggressively defending them against general public negativity on social media), but I have to say that I'm a little disappointed at the significant "all clear" sentiments that have been spreading here in west central FL by the local mets. They're already essentially putting out on SM sites that the storm will pass by the coast, and although that's [hopefully/probably] going to happen, I think the general model uncertainty and difficulty in analyzing this storm should be keeping them more guarded with what they're putting out right now.

The 18Z runs were all of a similar mind in nudging the storm westward from prior model runs, with the HWRF going so far as to call a landfall/ingress above the Cape - it shows how uncertain this prediction will be. I'm curious as to whether it could be a result of that missed Gulfstream flight that didn't provide updated data for the more recent runs that is now causing them to use "stale" data (do they input old/stale data for models which use them, or just run them without those parameters?). It seemed like when the original atmosphere data rolled into the models, they began their turn to the right, and now that we missed that one set of samples, the models are lagging back to the left. I feel like we have a serious need for all of the atmospheric data we can get for this storm, as the timing of ridges and troughs will make or break the path for sure.

Time will tell.




Oh there's no all clear. Even if Dorian stays out to see, storm surge and a whole pile of thunderstorms/rain are still coming. 20:00 discussion says up to 12 feet depending on where you are which one heck of a lot of Florida under water if 12 feet actually hit. There are A LOT of places that are under 10 feet in elevation.



Edited by cieldumort (Sat Aug 31 2019 09:29 PM)


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JMII
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100359 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:27 PM

Quote:

Edit: shows landfall at Cape Canaveral /New Smyrna Beach Tuesday night.




Levi's update shows this as well. The timing is super critical. A faster west motion could bring Dorian ashore, where slower motion keeps him offshore. We will have radar coverage on this approach so it will be a frame by frame now-cast. Given the narrow wind field its almost an all or nothing situation. If he stays offshore just TS winds, but just 50 miles more west could bring the Cat 4 winds onshore. Currently Dorian is tracking about an eye's width to the right of the NHC line. He went due W for awhile, now jogging WNW again.

At closest approach he will be only 100 miles due E of Jupiter FL.


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Steve86
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #100360 - Sat Aug 31 2019 08:34 PM

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/TAW/08/GOES16-TAW-08-900x540.gif

I’ve been watching this all day.

It is interesting to see how the ULL, high pressure, Dorian and the jet stream have been interacting.

It now looks as if the front that was coming across the US is trying to push an opening through the high pressure to Dorian’s NE.

Is this where the HWRF model may be gathering its new model info?
Could it help propel Dorian further west if it breaks through to its east with a partial high still sitting over Dorian?
We are on the east coast of fl and watching closely.
Everyone stay safe.
Let’s push this thing east.


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SteveV
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Psyber]
      #100362 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:17 PM

I seen "Florida Panhandle" apparently misused more than once recently, so I must ask if the part of Florida containing Pensacola is actually what was intended in this statement? I think you mean the Florida Peninsula (i.e. the part containing Orlando, Tampa, and Miami), right?

Sorry, I'm a bit stressed out these days (living in Rockledge, FL) and simple errors that I can find always concern me because it makes me wonder how many errors are present that I do not recognize as such. And I really want to understand the things I read here.

Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 31 2019 09:26 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: SteveV]
      #100363 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:27 PM

They don't use stale data, just less of it. There isn't as much upper air data over the open ocean as over land.

Eye is now visible on the Bahama's radar at http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

There's a few webcam recordings from Abaco over on http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Dorian+%282019%29


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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100366 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:33 PM

Reminder This is a hurricane forum specifically for discussion about Dorian's forecast (models, hunches, etc.).
Unrelated posts will be edited or deleted in their entirety. Thanks.


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Psyber
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100368 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:40 PM

Quote:

They don't use stale data, just less of it. There isn't as much upper air data over the open ocean as over land.

Eye is now visible on the Bahama's radar at http://smartmet.bahamasweather.org.bs/radarcomposite/

There's a few webcam recordings from Abaco over on http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Dorian+%282019%29




Wow doesn't it appear that there are many outer bands on that, are there?


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100369 - Sat Aug 31 2019 09:59 PM

Bahamas radar is what it is at that long range, Sat photos and the plane radar is probably better for this.

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Londovir
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100370 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:03 PM

Local met is reporting the recon pass had estimated surface wind of 150kts (172mph) and pressure of 939mb. Looks like we're going to be seeing Cat 5 at the 11pm advisory, which puts the storm over the forecast intensity. (Although, of course, pretty much everyone knew this storm would be rolling unhindered into optimal conditions for intensification.)

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Londovir


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chance
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Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100371 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:09 PM

Looking at the Sat it is moving in a stright line almost as with that perfect center you can see it easy. My question is that it is moving along at a ok speed what is to stop it from keeping going right along into the east coast of florida?

Edited by chance (Sat Aug 31 2019 10:10 PM)


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JMII
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 364
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: chance]
      #100372 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:18 PM

Quote:

My question is that it is moving along at a ok speed what is to stop it from keeping going right along into the east coast of florida?




The weakness in the ridge to the north: Tropical Tidbits YouTube

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South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for:
David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)


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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #100373 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:24 PM

hey JM, but the ridge is stronger than the data the models had earlier in the day = shift West

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4232
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100374 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:27 PM

Want to call out our twitter feed on the left (or link http://twitter.com/cfhc )
We're updating it with retweets of interesting info on Dorian, including a few experimental models.


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 113
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: Londovir]
      #100375 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:30 PM

938 mb, surely going to Cat 5 next advisory.
https://icons.wxug.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1999_charts/at199906.gif
Look familiar?

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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chance
Weather Watcher


Reged: Tue
Posts: 29
Re: Hurricane Dorian Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100376 - Sat Aug 31 2019 10:31 PM