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cieldumort
Moderator


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Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home
      #100053 - Fri Aug 23 2019 09:17 PM



5PM EST 24 August 2019 Update
FIVE has become a Tropical Storm, Dorian, the fourth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Dorian is traversing an environment characterized by moderate vertical wind shear and low mid-level humidities. However, shear is forecast to drop by midday Sunday, and remain low or even very low through Tuesday. As the well-defined TC crosses over warm waters while in this very favorable shear, the potential for dry air intrusions could be low, and in fact the official NHC forecast calls for Dorian to become a hurricane within 72 hours.

Key Messages:
Quote:

1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for a portion of the area on Sunday.


Original Entry
We are just a few weeks away from the climatological peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and there are several systems we are monitoring, three of which are close to or closing in on land: 98L, 99L, W Gulf Low (Very strong 90L candidate).

As these systems are all tending to form in the Western Atlantic, as has been a trend this year, they are far more likely to affect land or interests close to land, including the south and/or southeast U.S.

As of 5PM EDT today August 23, official NHC odds for development are as follows: 98L 90%, 99L 50% (could be conservative), Gulf Low: TBD. Was still under 10% at the 2PM TWO and thus not listed at that time, but this system has continued to impress, with surface pressures falling some and winds increasing some throughout the day today.

Follow along with us in the 2019 Forecast Lounge , as well as here on the Homepage.

Links to individual Forecast Lounges:
Invest 98L Lounge, Tropical Storm Dorian Lounge, W Gulf Low _90L_ Lounge


Dorian Event Related Links


https://flhurricane.com/images/2019/float5latest.gif https://flhurricane.com/images/2019/stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2019&storm=5 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Dorian
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Dorian


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Dorian (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Dorian

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Dorian
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Dorian -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View




Invest 98L Event Related Links


https://flhurricane.com/images/2019/float6latest.gif https://flhurricane.com/images/2019/stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2019&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of 98L
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 98L


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 98L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 98L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 98L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 98L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 98L -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View






StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes



East Florida Links <html><a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite_loop.php" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/Loop/southeast_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Southeast Composite Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite.php"

onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/RadarImg/southeast.gif\>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a></html>) South to North:

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYW<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYW<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Key West, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYW<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>BYW<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>AMX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>AMX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Miami, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>AMX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>AMX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MLB<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MLB<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Melbourne, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MLB<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MLB<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>JAX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>JAX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Jacksonville, FL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>JAX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>JAX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Invest 98L Lounge Invest 99L Lounge W Gulf Trof Lounge

North Gulf Links <html><a href="http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly_loop.php" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/Loop/southmissvly_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southmissvly.php"

onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/southmissvly.gif'\>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a></html>) East to West:

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Mobile, AL Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>MOB<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LIX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LIX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>New Orleans, LA Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LIX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LIX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LCH<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LCH<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Lake Charles, LA Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LCH<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>LCH<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

<html> <a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>HGX<html>_loop.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>HGX<html>_loop.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();"></html>Houston/Galveston, TX Radar<html> Radar Loop</A> 

(<a href="https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>HGX<html>_0.gif" onMouseover="ddrivetip('<img src=\'https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/lite/K</html>HGX<html>_0.gif\'>');" onMouseout="hideddrivetip();">Latest Static</a>)</html>

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA - Houston/Galveston, TX



Edited by MikeC (Sun Aug 25 2019 10:31 AM)

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lunkerhunter
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 248
Loc: Saint Augustine, FL
Re: Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home [Re: cieldumort]
      #100058 - Sun Aug 25 2019 01:49 AM

Seems a lot of the Dorian and 98L graphics and links are mixed

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cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2305
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home [Re: lunkerhunter]
      #100059 - Sun Aug 25 2019 04:32 AM

Quote:

Seems a lot of the Dorian and 98L graphics and links are mixed



Indeed. It's on SFWMD's end, not ours. I've removed the links until they are corrected to prevent any confusion.

--------------------
Fully vaccinated as of May 2021
(Moderna x2)

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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4544
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Heading into Season Peak with Several Systems Close to Home [Re: cieldumort]
      #100067 - Sun Aug 25 2019 10:03 PM

recording Caribbean mosaic radar for Dorian http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?460

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