Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Non-Tropical Lows out at sea may acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics this week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 38 (Dorian) , Major: 369 (Michael) Florida - Any: 369 (Michael) Major: 369 (Michael)
41.0N 51.4W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1004mb
Moving:
E at 23 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 94LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1921
Loc: Austin, Tx
Jerry Lounge
      #100696 - Mon Sep 16 2019 12:33 PM


Above: Invest 97L (circled in red) sandwiched between several other waves
Base image credit: Weathernerds.org

The most recent in a train of waves that have rolled across the Tropical Atlantic with initially strong model, and indeed NHC, support, does appear to be holding its own if not even coming together, and this one is now given 90% odds of becoming a tropical cyclone within 5 days per NHC. It has been tagged Invest 97L, and we are starting a lounge on it.

While convection is not as beefy as several of the other waves before and behind it, 97L already has a well defined circulation and only a modest increase in showers and thunderstorms would likely qualify the system as a TC. The next name on the list in 2019 is Imelda.

Initial indications are for 97L to become a TD or named storm prior to reaching the Antilles later this week, and recurve - with odds favoring, but not guaranteeing, a spin out to sea. There are suggestions that it could pass very near Bermuda next week, which would not be welcome news to residents of that island who may be having to deal with recovery from Humberto hitting them this week.

TEN became Tropical Storm Jerry overnight and the title has been updated accordingly on 9/18 - Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Sep 18 2019 10:35 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Invest 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100699 - Mon Sep 16 2019 06:16 PM

If it stays off of Cuba, this thing might thread the needle and give us a seriously dangerous Gulf Of Mexico based storm.

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 16 2019 07:28 PM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumortModerator
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1921
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Invest 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100702 - Tue Sep 17 2019 04:52 AM

97L looks to get classified at any time now, and we will likely see it become Imelda or Jerry this week.


Some concerting trends overnight have been indicative of potential for the center to form/reform and/or be dragged south of where proto-TC 97L was originally projected to travel, and some of this is bearing out in a few models. For example, latest HWRF brings 97L as a then Major into the northern Leeward Islands Friday night/Saturday morning.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 117
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Invest 97L Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #100704 - Tue Sep 17 2019 09:23 AM

Quote:

Some concerting trends overnight have been indicative of potential for the center to form/reform and/or be dragged south of where proto-TC 97L was originally projected to travel, and some of this is bearing out in a few models. For example, latest HWRF brings 97L as a then Major into the northern Leeward Islands Friday night/Saturday morning.



Beyond the weekend... there is some indication that the trough originally forecast to promote re-curve well offshore may be replaced by strong high pressure building southward over the western Atlantic the first days of fall through the last days of September. If this pans out, a more WNW track following passage through or just north of the islands would not be out of the question. While the GOMEX is likely off the table, Florida's storm-weary east coast isn't. We need a re-curve sooner with enough latitude gained to avoid another nail-biter.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4239
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Invest 97L Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100706 - Tue Sep 17 2019 10:31 AM

Advisories to start on TD#10 at 11AM EDT.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Robert
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 343
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: Invest 97L Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #100707 - Tue Sep 17 2019 10:42 AM Attachment (28 downloads)

I think Invest 96L is not totally out of the question, and still needs to be watched as it may change the dynamics in about 3-4 days, it could start going once near the Bahamas , pumping the ridge behind allowing 10 south, while breaking the ridge and allowing a recurve out to sea. Still early.

Edited by Robert (Tue Sep 17 2019 10:43 AM)


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Psyber
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 199
Loc: Ontario, Canada
Re: Invest 97L Lounge [Re: Robert]
      #100710 - Tue Sep 17 2019 12:49 PM

It's starting to get picked up better on the models. A good number of them are showing it hitting or at least kissing Northern Florida, Georgia or South Carolina. Given the track it's taking and steering from the available data on airmasses there is a decent amount of concern that it's *possible* this might make landfall and if it does it could be a major storm when it does that.

The current models (the ones picking TD 10 up) generally have it touching the coast/getting damn near it but so much can happen between now and then. A lot of models aren't even seeing it properly yet so keep in consideration that the models that are getting organized are probably not strong indicators of the storm yet.

Even though it's still a very long time out of even getting within the NHC cone (a week) however this is the part where you start to make sure you have yourself Hurricane ready if you live in South East USA. We're having a VERY active season it seems and it's conceivable that it's going to keep going.


Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1



Extra information
0 registered and 9 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  CFHC, MikeC, Ed Dunham, Colleen A., Atricks, danielw, Clark, Christine H, RedingtonBeachGuy, SkeetoBite, Bloodstar, tpratch, typhoon_tip, cieldumort, Jackie M, Wigeon, Hank Buck 

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 4138

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at
Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center