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General Discussion >> 2019 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 117
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Lorenzo's impact along Florida's east coast- another high surf/beach erosion event
      #100751 - Sun Sep 29 2019 07:50 AM

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC provided input that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern portion of the circulation.

Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
420 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

.DISCUSSION......Increasing Winds, Seas and Surf Expected Through Mid Week...MARINE...Today-tonight...A large high pressure ridge will build and expand across the breadth of the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic.
Increasing winds/chop, fetch length, gradually building swells from distant but large, major Hurricane Lorenzo, and the ongoing high astronomical ("King") tides along Florida east coast to cause deteriorating marine conditions starting tonight.

E-ENE winds near 15KT today will increase to 15-20KT tonight, as seas build from 3-5FT to 4-6FT after sunset. Issued a CFS to address coastal flooding concerns into mid week. We`ll likely need Cautionary Statements tonight.

Mon-Thu...Marine conditions will become increasingly hazardous early tomorrow, lasting through mid to late week, as long period swells from distant Hurricane Lorenzo arrives to the Atlantic waters at the same time as the higher than normal tidal cycle, combined with a tightening pressure gradient leading to strong easterly winds up to 20 knots. By daybreak Monday, seas will approach 5-7 ft in the nearshore waters, nearing 7-9 ft in the offshore zones. These
heights will continue through a majority of the week.

SCA for the Atlantic waters and statements for High Rip Risk in the surf zone a near certainty from Monday morning onward. High Surf thresholds could be approached as well.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 117
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Lorenzo's impact along Florida's east coast- another high surf/beach erosion event [Re: IsoFlame]
      #100753 - Thu Oct 03 2019 08:22 AM

Atlantic Ocean high tide cycles yesterday in east-central Volusia were several feet above normal due to seasonal, nor'easter and Lorenzo swell enhancement. The beach remained closed to driving most of the day as the tide ran up to the base of the sea wall in some areas, impacting surviving (post-Dorian) dune vegetation once again. The fledgling dune (that I cultured with native beach vegetation) once looked so promising this summer (before Dorian) has become a tumbled mass of brown, decaying plant matter covered with sargassum seaweed.
I don't know if I'll again plant native beach plant cuttings from my "nursery/yard" to help the vegetation on the beach near where I live when (if) sand accumulates again because it is impossible for a meaningful dune to become established when backed by a condo's tall sea wall.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

Edited by IsoFlame (Thu Oct 03 2019 08:23 AM)


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