Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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IMO the early morning vis loops hints of a system slowly trying to get better organized... convection on in increase... hints of mid level twists abound... I gave it a 20-25% chance of development last night, I think I'm going to increase it to 50%... but would like to see some more vis loops, and if it does, it going to take some time... hey its august, its hot, waters are warm, and we always have something close to home to track on Labor day weekend...
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LoisCane
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1198
Loc: South Florida
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want to know what herbs that TD is taking cause I want some lol
beautiful, really
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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are you talking about TD10?? also isn't the clouds south of cuba whats left of TD9 and isn't that what some model are showing as a GOM feature this weekend?
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Beach
Unregistered
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Cayman Islands are reporting some gust weather.
Winds at 18mph from ESE (120)
Pressure 29.88
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caneman
Unregistered
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Just want to clear something up, some people on this board and others keep saying the West. Caribb. is TD 9 remnant, it ins't. This is the Southern split from the wave that looked like it would become TD10 around DR and Puerto Rico a few days ago.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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No, what I am talking about is the weather I started paying attention to late yesterday afternoon... it has nothing to do with either TD10 or TD9... it is the southern half of the latest tropical wave that we were watching over Haita and the Dominican Republic on Monday and Tuesday... that northern part of that wave fell apart from some strong shear, and the south half drifted towards Jamaica early yesterday... around noon yesterday convection starting building up around Jamaica and west ... the convection was relatively small but has persisted and the clould field has increase quite a bit in size in the past 12 hours or so...
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Beach
Unregistered
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
It looks like it means business, 80W 19N looks to moving directly N, If it looks like this or better when on the other side of Cuba...
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caneman
Unregistered
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Frank, I see you and I had the same thought. Felt it important to bring up because there is this rampant thinking that it is somhow TD9 remnants. IT ISN'T. SPREAD THE WORD FOLKS. IT IS THE SOUTHERN SPLIT FROM THE LAST WAVE.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Yep...scary. I found this interesting. Any doubt of this systems movement from the below loop?
IR Loop
If they would all track that close to a latitude line we would have no trouble tracking direction. Sorry for my inane observations.
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Jara
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I like to use the vis sat loop for direction of a wave... from what I can tell the "wave" is moving off to the wnw or perhaps nw... I don't think its moving north... no hints of any LLC even close to forming but its certainly something to look for throughout the day... one may never form, but its starting to look like a decent wave at least...
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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What ever remant of it is or isn't, it is interesting, bears watching, and very close to the Gulf.
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Jara
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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my last post was about the distrubed weather southwest of Jamaica and south of Cuba... guess I need to do a better job delineating what system I am discussing, with TD 10 and the other two waves that are attracting interest.. for the moment I am focusing on what's closest to home until it is no longer has any potential for development... and that's the area south of Cuba....
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Latest T-numbers for TD10:
28/1145 UTC 15.1N 36.5W T3.0/3.0 10
Strong tropical Storm I would guess. Is this going to be a quick intensification system and does that mean a more fish spinner type track?
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Jara
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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thanks. i m one of the idiots who thought it was part of TD9. thats what i like about the board, you get your questions answered. seems like we have had something in the gulf the last few years around labor day
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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yeah, that thing's the southern part of the wave. area is ripe for pattern-induced development. the persistence argues for slow development.. even though models are wishy-washy (an exception is .. louisiana folks would be interested in the 00Z run). it's a sensible assumption that any development in that area will come up ahead of the trough somewhere between louisiana and the panhandle.. pointless to take it into specifics until some kind of discrete low pressure center becomes apparent.
10L will be fabian at 11am edt, since d numbers are now 3.0 and. i've never seen a d3.0 depression. the westward track shifts put the islands in more of a strike prone area in the tue-thu timeframe.. and rest assured it will be hurricane fabian at that point.. but that's still up in the air until 93L's part to play becomes more apparent. yesterday evening i said it was tracking more west.. well, the buttonhook trough was.. but over time the edge of the trough is reforming against the convection.. which is moving nw overall. shear is gradually lessening and this system is persisting.. and it will be past the upper trough in the next 2 days anyway.. so i'm assuming it will develop. probably within an area near 27-52 to 29-56. if it were to develop, it would most likely bend more westward and track in the general direction of bermuda.
there are other areas of interest as well. the southern end of the wave that spawned 93L has acquired convection north off the overnight. poorly organized, but remember was tracking a weak low with that part of the system yesterday. if the convection persists, we could easily see another system trying to develop near the southern windward islands in the next couple of days.
two other oddball subtropical possibilities are worth noting. two mccs left the mid atlantic coast yesterday and are drifting ese near bermuda.. maintaining some structure. occasionally a system will develop out of one of these if it persists. the other possibility is far NE atlantic.. south of the azores. some trough energy may linger in the area as a cyclone spins up and heads for iberia... maybe something out in fish spinner country.
have gone back to mentioning everything since emphasis on 'secondary' interests occasionally pan out.. though definitely the big questions right now revolve around two things:
1) will 10L/fabian keep on its more westward track or will upstream development perforate the guiding ridge?
2) what is evolving in the west caribbean/gulf for the weekend?
HF 1332z28august
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Jara I agree with you on the interest... and Caneman and I are right on this, no doubt about it... I'm only pissed because he got his post on the board before me... by seconds I might add.... hehe
TD9 long gone.. Steve and I had a debate about it's remnants several days ago...
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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I hear ya Frank...guys and gals smarter then me steal my thunder all the time. IT is very interesting that it has popped up there especially since models had hinted to some kind of development in the Carribean and we had gotten to the point of laughing it off. Persistance, even for computer models, can sometime pay off. We will watch and see.
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Jara
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Beach
Unregistered
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Cayman Islands is reporting a increase in wind and pressure
since 7:25am
Wind 22 MPH up from 18mph
Pressure 29.91 up from 29.88
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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take a look at the 06Z runs of .. in the late period after 1 week when the plot contours look 'dumber'. it still has 'fabian' smacking into the SE coast in about 2 weeks. steve, time for you to let us know if will have a trough ready to scoop the storm up.. through most of the forecast period the ridge is locked and strong into the eastern u.s.
HF 1356z28august
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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wow-a 3.0 wasn't sufficient to upgrade it to a storm...how often is there a 3.0 depression out there?
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