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Hurricane Edouard Moving NW in the Central Atlantic Odile in east pacific landfalls in Cabo San Lucas in Baja MX as a Major Hurricane.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 74 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3249 (8 y 10 m) (Wilma)
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Pres: 963mb
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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 133
Loc: East Central Florida 28.45N 81.06W
TD#11 in the Gulf as Hurricane Fabian moves Westward
      #10408 - Sat Aug 30 2003 11:24 AM

Tropcial Depression #11 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and Tropical Storm warning flags are flying from high island to Corpus Christi in Texas. This has a little time to wrap up, so it's worth watching folks in Texas for a strong Tropical Storm.

Fabian continues westward, now a category 2 hurricane. I see nothing to stop it from becoming the first major hurricane of the season. It won't be close enough to the US for 6 days to really make a call, so we'll continue to monitor the model and persistence of the models. It's shaping up to be a rather active September.
Mike



Perhaps even VERY busy. Tropical Depression 11 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is heading for the southeast Texas coast. TD 11 is expected to become Tropical Storm Grace prior to landfall on Sunday as a 45 knot storm - and this seems like a reasonable forecast to me. Tropical Storm Warnings now posted from High Island to Corpus Christi, Texas. Later today I'll post a few more details in the Storm Forum.

Late night update: Decided to hold off on the Storm Forum entry until Sunday morning. At the moment Grace is barely a TS. Hurricane Fabian on the other hand is mighty impressive as it builds toward Cat IV.

Hurricane Fabian really getting his act together. I didn't have a chance to review the 15Z info, but at 1345Z an eye was forming at 17.1N 48.6W and the NRL had Fabian listed at 85kts with a central pressure of 973mb. Movement is to the west northwest (about 285 degrees). The 12Z model runs are very interesting in that some of the Tropical models and the Global models are remarkably aligned in the long range forecast positions (the outliers are the A98 and the GFDL). I'll amplify on this in the Storm Forum later today.

Invest 93L has sparked up again this morning near 27N 59.5W with scattered convection. Looks very weak, but can't push it out of the 'potential development' equation just yet.

Trailing wave behind Fabian (ESE) getting better organized but still buried in the ITCZ. This system should lift out to the west northwest in the trailing wake of Fabian and become a TD in a couple of days (and this one worries me a bit). Another strong wave will soon exit the west coast of Africa.

Finally, Hurricane Jimena in the EASTPAC looks well organized and the latest model runs nudge the track a little more to the north of west - not good for Hawaii. Looks like Jimena is going to pass mighty close to the Big Island on Labor Day. I've already posted my thoughts on Jimena in the 'Other Storm Basins' Forum.

Looks like a busy holiday weekend if you're an avid storm tracker.
ED

The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Aug 31 2003 12:33 AM)


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: TD#11 in the Gulf as Hurricane Fabian moves Westward
      #10412 - Sat Aug 30 2003 12:08 PM

Got our first squall band through a little while ago. Typical tropical rains, dark clouds, some light gusts and even a little thunder (not typical).

It's back to the other house to sand. Y'all have fun in Texas and Western LA.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: TD#11 in the Gulf as Hurricane Fabian moves Westward
      #10413 - Sat Aug 30 2003 12:16 PM

Obvious T-Numbers from Cat 2 Fabian:

30/1145 UTC 17.0N 47.9W T4.5/4.5 FABIAN

Hold on tight in the gulf!

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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ALex
Unregistered




west jog for Fabian
      #10416 - Sat Aug 30 2003 01:32 PM

It seems like in the last few hours, fabian has moved nearly due west.

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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
Re: west jog for Fabian
      #10417 - Sat Aug 30 2003 01:42 PM

I agree. In fact there is a little south component in the last wobble, I do think its just a wobble, but its averaging out due west. I just do not see any north component.

Bill


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 260
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: west jog for Fabian
      #10418 - Sat Aug 30 2003 01:49 PM

how can fabian be a hundred mil an hour winds and danny only seventy five. danny had red cloud tops wraped around a perfect cloud free eye and the rest of the system was nice and symetrical to, it baffles me, and i belive danny was stronger.

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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1096
Loc: fl
Re: west jog for Fabian
      #10419 - Sat Aug 30 2003 02:04 PM

robert,, any thunderstorms can have 50,000 ft cloud tops. Look at storms in the midwest or anywhere in fact. Should they be hurricanes on land? Of course not, but you can have a big area of high cloud tops over the water,, but if pressures are high then there will be typical 20-35mph winds. Lower the pressure,, the stronger the winds. scottsvb,,,,, Just a note.. The Big eastern trough forcasted to deveop over the upcoming week might not be as strong as forcasted, infact we are not forcasting it to be as strong or dig as far south. Though some impact may affect Fabian down the road,, maybe only slowing him down, thurs-fri might happen,, ridge behind the trough doesnt look too strong as of now but things can change. NE carribean islands might go under a hurricane watch late tonight or tomorrow as Fabian will be near 19n AND 60w during passage. scottsvb
Note on TD 11 is it might make it to a weak T.S. but winds will not be a factor, mainly heavy rain for Houston to NO.


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Beach
Unregistered




Re: TD#11 in the Gulf as Hurricane Fabian moves Westward
      #10420 - Sat Aug 30 2003 02:06 PM

Hello from the French QTR. So far not much to report here. Local weather expects winds 15-20mph winds today. Would be nice cause it is HOT HOT HOT! Will be back on the beach Tuesday.

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BillD
Weather Analyst


Reged: Wed
Posts: 396
Loc: Miami 25.70N 80.29W
TD 11 is now TS Grace and Fabian is a cat3!
      #10421 - Sat Aug 30 2003 04:10 PM

TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GRACE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RERSERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ALONG
WITH WIND REPORTS FROM A SHIP AND OFFSHORE OIL RIG...THE DEPRESSION
IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GRACE AS OF 1 PM CDT...1800Z.

FORECASTER STEWART



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Mitch
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 12
Loc: Merritt Island, FL
Afternoon Discussion from Miami NWS
      #10422 - Sat Aug 30 2003 04:23 PM

"BEYOND THAT...MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE. MOST EXTENDED MODELS
DEVELOP TROUGH OVER THE EAST...RESULTING IN TROPICAL ACTIVITY
TURNING NORTH AND PASSING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER US. THE NEW 12Z GFS SEEMS TO BE BACKING OFF THAT
JUST A LITTLE BIT...AND TRYING TO WEAKLY REBUILD A RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH. BUT AGAIN...I HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS SOLUTION.
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR SITUATION AS THIS PRIMARILY AFFECTS DAY 7
OF OUR FORECAST AND BEYOND...SO WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT
HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR NOW...WILL BROAD BRUSH EXTENDED
WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS/POPS EACH DAY."


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: TD 11 is now TS Grace and Fabian is a cat3!
      #10423 - Sat Aug 30 2003 04:41 PM

Heck..I go out for the afternoon and a TS forms in GOM. Its ugly looking but heres to our buds and budettes and their safety in the Western Gulf of Mexico.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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squirralee
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 80
Loc: Mims, Florida
Re: west jog for Fabian
      #10424 - Sat Aug 30 2003 05:04 PM

This from the 5:00 discussion on Fabian:

FABIAN HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE U.S. EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WOULD
MAINTAIN FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH
72 HOURS.

So what you were seeing, is what you were seeing.


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Jim M
Weather Watcher


Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
Re: west jog for Fabian
      #10425 - Sat Aug 30 2003 05:26 PM

Not sure I really trust any of the latest model runs. I've noticed the last few years that they do not handle multiple tropical systems in Atlantic and Gulf at the same time very well. Will have to see what happens with Grace. I think Grace will determine if and when Fabian turns north or not. Does not look like any of the 12Z runs handled Grace very well. I am very skeptical of GFDL in this situation. It has not seemed to perform well in the past. The GFS insisting on some due west and even some southerly movemnet is enough to make me be wary.
Even with what I just said, the current NHC forecast seems very reasonable through 72 hours. Beyond that will be interesting to see if the ridge does weaken enough for an early turn or if the US East coast will get a scare.


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Robert
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sat
Posts: 260
Loc: Southeast, FL
Re: west jog for Fabian
      #10426 - Sat Aug 30 2003 05:35 PM

Granted scott your right about lowering the pressure you get stronger winds. But if your ambient pressure around the storm is higher your core pressure will be higher to, But that does not always correlate. Smaller compact system have higher wind to pressure ratio. Andrew had 165mph winds and 922 pressure, Floyd abigger system had 921 pressure and 155 mph winds, Before Andrew turned west he had 60 mph winds and 1015 millibar pressure. Here is a great Example Iris in 2001 very small i thought danny looked most like iris with a larger eye in over all sise comparison small and compact imbeded in a strong high pressure iris had 145mph winds at peak intesity with 945 millibar pressure. Plus There were no ship observation to prove that danny had that high of pressure purely speculitive just as fabian could be a 105 or 155.

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JustMe
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
Re: west jog for Fabian
      #10427 - Sat Aug 30 2003 06:51 PM

Hope Fabain goes more north to spare the islands.
Anyone got any ideas on a more North turn and when?

--------------------

I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: west jog for Fabian
      #10428 - Sat Aug 30 2003 07:00 PM

First I'd like to say that NHC's latest forecast for Fabian through 3 days looks very reasonable. West to west-northwest with a possition northeast of the Lesser Antilles in 72 hours.
*After that is when things start to get interesting*. My first thing is a little rant about some of the ideas of seen from other people...by no means is NHC forecasting recurvature yet! It shows a NW curve from 96-120 hours. They aren't even showing a track to the north yet. In addition, from the 96 hour to 120 hour period, THEY SHOW THE STORM ACCELERATING! If the system was going forecast to recurve, you'd think it would slow down. That isn't the case in NHC's latest forecast track. Another thing to take into consideration...the error margin for the latest track on Fabian is easily the *largest* error margin I've seen this year for a five day forecast. Major uncertainty looms.

I will caution you about one thing...there have been storms in the past that have gone northwest only to curve back west and hit the United States. There was one or maybe two in the 40's if I remember correctly, and Dora and Betsy are a couple of notable examples from the 60's. The NOAA jet that is sampling the environment to the north of the storm should tell us a lot more about the high pressure area that is currently steering Fabian mostly w/wnw. In addition, the 72 hour NHC forecast point is at 21.0N and 62.0W. I don't know, but it seems to me like that may be a bit too far east for Fabian to do much more than just move northwest for a short period of time. Fabian's eventual track will also depend highly upon the location of the trough...something tells me that the front will do little more than just weaken the ridge enough to move Fabian northwest. And what if the front pulls out quickly? That adds even more chance of a sharp west turn. What if Fabian strengthens enough to create its own environment (which I sort of doubt)? There are so many questions at this point, but there are few answers. But the potential does exist for Fabian to turn west after the 120 hour period. The timing also seems suspect due to the fact that Fabian is a slow mover. It is VERY hard to believe that the most crucial moments with Fabian may not come until next weekend? It's a slow mover. Something tells me that Fabian may even miss the trough just because of slow movement.

Either way, NHC's track seems to be lacking sense to me. If the storm should recurve...then why does it speed up from 96-120 hours? Could the forecasters quietly be torn between a recurve or a building ridge? Or are the models just whacked? I guess we'll see with time.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: west jog for Fabian
      #10429 - Sat Aug 30 2003 07:46 PM

The timing at the end of the track seems interesting to me. What exactly is the timing of the weakness. I see a similar circumstance as we had with the little wave that crossed South Florida a few weeks back. Does she move NW into the weakness only to have the Bermuda High build back and push Fabian into the east coast. Is this similar to the Andrew scenario in a lot of ways?

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Kevin-storms going NW then W
      #10430 - Sat Aug 30 2003 07:49 PM

Kevin:

Storms going NW then re-curving W to hit the U.S.:

Andrew went from somewhere around 21/60 to 25/65 (I'm just estimating from memory so I'm probably a little bit off, but not too far--and in fact, I think it continued almost due NW till 26N), then went almost due west (even a bit south of west at some point) toward S. Fla. Right now, Fabian's 4-day forecast position is actually south of where Andrew was when Andrew crossed 65 west.

So of course your point is well-taken.

Fingers crossed for that weakness! Hopefully we'll have a better idea by around Monday.


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BOB316
Unregistered




Re: TD#11 in the Gulf as Hurricane Fabian moves Westward
      #10431 - Sat Aug 30 2003 08:37 PM

grace moving north /east last few frames this thing is hard to tell last update NHC was not sure of movement please help

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TEAL61
Unregistered




Grace Center ?
      #10432 - Sat Aug 30 2003 08:48 PM

looking at..

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.khgx.shtml

there appears to be a possible center near 27.5/94.5 east of Corpus Christi and SSE of Galveston. Neil Frank was doing an update a little bit ago on Houston TV and pointed this out.I wonder if there are two centers or if this is just the northern end of an elongated circulation.


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