CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 133
Loc: East Central Florida 28.45N 81.06W
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First off, our two Atlantic systems didn't do anything. And the one near bermuda didn't spin up fast enough before it was absorbed by the larger low, so nothing with them.
Texas, however, has had some serious floodly lately, and the last thing they need is a tropical system.
Yet, the Central Western Gulf of Mexico has a broad area of low pressure that has the potential to form into a depression
As for the Bermuda System. The National Hurricane Center has been mentioningi it in the outlook. It's not all that well developed at present, so if it does form it'll take a day or two. Even if it does not, Texas will need to watch it because of even more rain possible from it.
What's my opinion on the chances of it forming?
code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
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We'll be watching. Water temps are good enough to support something, it's being watched by the Navy, and the next day or two will tell this one's tale.
Elsewhere there are some clouds southeast of Florida, but nothing I see happening quite yet. It could change though, watch this one too.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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YOu said Bermuda system but I assume you're referring to the sytem bewtween Florida and Bahamas. Anybody have any pressure info. I tried to accesss buoys in that area but they are all outdated in that the last reports were from 10 or 11 last night.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I would have to say that the low pressure area in the S/Central GOM is pretty much dead, unless it's reborn I think it will only be a rainmaker. Also noticed that the has taken off the SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
The Florida/Cuba/Bahamas system definitely looks more healthy than the other one. Although there are not a lot of visibles to look at just yet, I think it will be interesting to see what they show later.
Colleen A.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I checked the bouy readings near the Bahamas and S. Florida near the "system" or whatever it is and the pressures are still high (30.11 @ FWYF (Fowley Rocks, FL) and also at MLRF1 (Molasses Reef) is 30.09 and rising.
The winds are the strongest in those two areas: FWYF1 had winds of 16knts coming out of the ESE with gusts to 19knts. MLRF1 had winds out of the ESE at 19knts with gusts to 25knts. Water temps are 83 & 84F respectively.
That was at the 10:00am readings.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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gulf system, 95L, doesnt look much different. still no , therefore no intensification. crappy convection equals crappy system when there isnt some baroclinic kick to compensate, law of the tropics. getting some easterly shear it looks like, nothing too serious. it got a d1.0 this morning at 1145z. lowest pressure reading in the area is only 1015mb, but away from the center. plane will get there this afternoon from keesler, tell us more. says south texas, bit initialized too far north. still most models take it closer to brownsville than i'm thinking.
the florida convection..not sure what triggered it. there isnt any kind of surface feature associated with it. some models were saying a disturbance would form in the eastern gulf mid week, so i doubt this is related. watch the area in days to come, though. rummaging through models.. i noticed it, dunham noticed it, bastardi even mentioned it in his post today. the seniority backup makes it stand out more in my mind. a major amplification in the east later in the week should slow the westerly progress of anything in the gulf down to a crawl.
pretty good easterly pulse coming into the islands today, has some turning in it around 50w. first signs of life ive seen in the deep tropics. of course that threat area is still dormant. upper westerlies and subsidence, front flank of the , dominate the caribbean.
HanKFranK aiken, SC 1644z08july
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Just as curiousity kills the cat, convection (or lack of) kills the prospect. Ever since last evening this system has been going downhill with all of it's convection nearly dissipating overnight. It has some back today, but it also looks more elongated. Didn't think I'd have to say this...it's dead and my forecast was way off of the mark.
There is an interesting "blob" off of southeast Florida today that has gained some attention. It looks pretty decent on satellite imagery (actually, I'll say it looks better than 95L despite it having no circulation) but I'm staying conservative with this one. It must first get some type of LLC, which may not occur until it is in the Gulf, if at all. hasn't mentioned this system yet, and I don't believe they will until it is in the Gulf and until it shows persistence. If it does develop a circulation, it could develop. In any event, 95L is probably a good warm-up for the hurricane hunters. I'll stay conservative with development chances, 3-5% and only in the GOMEX. But with steering currents as weak as they are, they could give this system a chance to sit and brew. Who knows what could happen then.
ITCZ: The western area of it has been very active lately. It needs to come more north, and the upper-level conditions need to become more favorable for one of these waves to develop. However, since the waves seem to flaring up further west, my ideas of developments closer to the islands this year may be in line. We'll see. 
I had to ask... 
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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Dont be too hasty to write off 95L... this system still has potential, and although is not looking to impressive on satellite imagery, it has improved in signature over the past hour or two. Recon are currently in the disturbance with the latest Recon Obs showing winds of 23 knots... It was also assigned numbers of 1.0 / 1.0 at about 1715UTC too.
will be interesting to see what recon has to say on it!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Well, I think they are playing, "Tag! you're it!" "WRONG! Tag! you're it!" with us right now. The one in the Gulf looks a little better, but the one near FL doesn't look very good at all.
Of course as soon as I post this, things will change. ;-)
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Since June and July are basically the spring training months for hurricanes its only apropos that we get these silly little systems early in the season that really struggle to get their act together.... What we have here are some minor league systems not ready for prime time.... as have all of the systems been to date...
During baseball spring training, the players work constantly on certain skills and perform numerous repetitions and fundamental drills so when the real season comes around they are prepared for every challenge...
Hurricanes are no different... during the hurricane pre-season these wanna-be systems are honing their skills in preparation for the official regular season. They are working diligently on strengthening their s, constantly conditioning their low and mid level circulations to be able to with stand the fatigue and pounding of the dreaded upper level shear, performing numerous reps and cycles developing deep convection, then only to lose it as fast as they developed... after a couple of months of intense practice they master the necessary skills.... and waa-la... we then get very mature and developed hurricanes in mid Aug and the remainder of the season.... primarily because of all the hard work they are doing now in preparing for the regular season....
yes sir its still the pre-season.... regular season starts in about a month or so... hehe
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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from kevin's poll it's clear that not many people have faith in 95L. just a little refresher on systems over near texas. quite often they will rapidly intensify right before going in, and continue to improve in organization after landfall. considering that this system has a good 15 to 18 hours left over the water, i'm not about to toss it from consideration. the only thing i have to change is where it comes ashore. looks like brownsville area after all. and yes, i'm still betting against my late july guess for a first named storm.
convection around florida has nothing to do with surface weather, save maybe a seabreeze front. a potential trigger wave is coming in from the east in a couple of days, to toy with whatever is still there. should note that model support that was present yesterday is hard to come by today.
HanKFranK aiken sc 2153z08july
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Jason Moreland
Unregistered
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Tropical Weather Watchers is doing discussions roughly every five hours on the low pressure system in the Gulf. On quiet days, the is uodated only once or twice a day. You can visit the home page at:
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com
Forecast Center:
http://www.geocities.com/forecastteam
BTW, I also have a link to FLHurricane on my links page. :-)
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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KEEP AN EYE ON THE ACTIVITY AROUND FLORIDA. I KNOW THERE IS NOT A CIRCULATION OR ANYTHING YET BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME NICE OUTFLOW COMING FROM SOMEWHERE IN THAT AREA. I THINK IT LOOKS MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN THE WESTERN GULF SYSTEM RIGHT NOW. I'M WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS IT MOVES OUT OVER OPEN WATER. THIS ONE MAY BE THE ONE TO GET THINGS GOING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STEERING FLOW IS SO WEAK RIGHT NOW. I COULD BE WRONG, BUT IT WOULDN'T BE THE FIRST TIME.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Shawn: I'm just as anxious as you are to see what happens to the convection when it gets out over the Gulf of Mexico sometime tommorrow. Even though it's an upper-level feature, with the weak steering currents it may get the time it needs to brew. I don't think this one will go totally unnoticed. I'm still saying no development until at least Thursday, if at all.
95L: The structure has actually improved over the last few hours on satellite. More convection has also developed around the LLC, which btw is not closed off. I'll wait untill sometime tommorrow to make a call on this system. If it improves overnight, I'll bump my 30% for development back up to 50%, at least. Time will tell.
Kevin
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Ok this is a forecast, the low and the gulf of mexico looks like it reforming to the east and there more thunderstorms. So there still a chance for it to get going so 20 percent on this to get going. The one and the eastern gulf looks like it will take time to get going models like it so thats a watcher about middle week. Back to the western guf system might bring some rain to texas. Might not help floods. Middle Atlantic wave was looking good early now no might bring some showers to the island, some to tueday. Was not looking and the northwest atlantic so might look at it soon. As for the Eastern Pacific a low might be forming could become a t.d and a few days, models keep showing it so I think it will have a chance. As for the western pacific three tropical systems one strong on and two tropical storms. The strong one looks to hit Japan. So watch the two other tropical storms. That was my try at a forecast tell me if my spelling is wrong.Matthew 
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Here's my take:
The W GOM low may close off tomorrow, but I doubt it makes TS strength. They may classify it as a TD, but I wouldn't bet on that now unless you gave me some pretty good odds.
As to the FL rainfall, it looks to me like there is a general broad circulation across the whole eastern and central Gulf. We had off and on showers throughout the day. I don't think any of 'em brought more than .1", but we probably got a 1/4" total in maybe 4 rain showers. There was more rain south and west of the city.
The Florida rain looks like a combination of general low pressure (as noted above) and a tropical wave. If you watch the IR or WV, you can kind of see a line moving W-WNW. Bob Breck noted that 'one of the cpu models' is closing off a low south of around Panama City which looks to be on Tues or Wed. The way things stand now is that there is a strong ridge over OK/AR which is probably going to move NE over time. This should continue the weak steering currents over lower lattitudes unless a big push comes in from the East. An upper level trof should be moving SE into NC Florida sometime near the weekend, so that might be a player eventualy if something does close off.
So here's a non-poll question for everyone: based on all the disturbed weather that hasn't actually formed so far this year, do you still feel strongly about your forecasted landfall areas and do you think the areas where the distubed weather has been portends anything for later on in the season? To me, everything is panning out as scheduled if June and July have been more-or-less dry runs. There has been abundant moisture around Florida, around the Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico in general and off the SE coasts of SC and NC.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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CONGRATS MATHEW!! Your forecast looks great and so does your spelling! Keep up the good work!
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2104
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Use the following link and set it up for animation, 100%, about 9 frames, and select a point just west of West Palm Beach. Its been there for hours!
NASA MSFC
Cheers,
ED
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
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Look's promising Ed !!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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Are you kidding me? Are there actually some people that might see things as I do? I have a strong gut feeling that we may have some serious action to watch for starting, NOW!!!! I know I'm making a big deal about something that hasn't happened or may not happen but I get this way with gut feelings. This one is something for the WHOLE gulf coast to watch because of the steering currents being so weak. Alright, place your bets! If it develops, where will it go?
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2104
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Actually, I should probably explain what I think this is (was). Last night NWS Melbourne in their forecast discussion mentioned that the southern half of the Florida peninsula would experience quite a few showers associated with a westward moving tropical wave moving in from the Bahamas (which is the focal point for the low pressure system that some of the models were developing off the southwest Florida coast). This morning some squally weather came ashore in south Florida and Melbourne noted the following in their discussion: "MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH FL PUT OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SQUALL LINE THAT CONTINUES TO PROPOGATE NORTH ACROSS LAKE
AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH
OCCURRED WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVED THROUGH PALM BAY...VERO BEACH
AND FORT PIERCE THIS MORNING." This afternoon the heavy convection over the peninsula suddenly went poof!! Now I asked myself why that should happen during the heat of the day over Florida in July? Here is the answer (I think): Embedded within the heavy convection was a small circulation center at the surface (TD?) and this is what caused the squally weather when it came ashore. When the center got over land, the clouds rapidly dissipated but now you could see the low level circulation. If this thing drifts back offshore (or crosses the state intact)...???
Cheers,
ED
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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Interesting hypothesis...
Looked over the surface plot and couldn't find anything, so I went to my favorite source of surface data, the WSR-88D...specifically the Miami and Tampa sites...and if you look closely you can see what appears to be a small circulation cross across Florida, exiting into the Gulf near St Pete on a vector of about 290 or so at about 01z or so this evening...unfortunately sunset wasn't kind, but the feature does show up on the last few visible's, although without any significant defination.
Interesting hypothesis, but one little fly in the ointment...if it WAS a LLC, then it was HAULING in the embedded easterly flow...(unless I am seeing something different)...the motion looked awfully fast for it to be any real problem...but I did notice a decrease in convection with a general increase in it's wake...
Might want to shoot an e-mail to Tony C or Jack B....
JK
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I was looking at a close up of Cuba and I think I see some indication of a circulation starting right off the NW tip of Cuba. Could someone take a look at this and post what you see? I could be just seeing things because of my impatience with wanting our first tropical system of the season.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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I see what you are referring to, but I don't think it is an indication of circulation...it only appears in the last 2 frames (on the loop I am looking at NASAGHCC), so it COULD be, but my gut says no (and I'm looking at it on infrared, which is the wrong way to look at it anyway...best imagery for identifying those initial circulations is visible....won't have that til morning!)
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The following is the link from which I spotted the circulation, or what appears to be a circulation forming. When you get on this link just click on the animation of the satellite and maybe you can see what I THINK I see.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/hurricane/satellite.asp?ocean=atlantic&thisreg=FLS&type=&sattype=ir
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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I see what you are referring to, but it's really inconclusive if there is a circulation there...it COULD be, but it just as easily might not be...first look at visibles in the morning will be more conclusive.
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Various areas between Panama City and Morgan City will get flooding rains in the next 2 days. The last RUC and ETAs that I could find form a low in the NE Gulf in the 12-24 hour period. With all of the associated deep tropical moisture in place and daytime heating to kick-start action along the coast, there will be some big storms with heavy rains and probably some training. Last time we had a moisture setup kinda' similar to this was about 2 weeks ago when the ULL was taking over the NC Gulf. It eventually smacked Texas, but there were many places between Miami and New Iberia that had storm totals well over 10". Most everyone got at least 4-5" during that week.
The lowest future pressure I could find on any of the other models puts the NE Gulf low at 1013 mb. But for whatever reason it seems to me that rainfall totals are under-estimated when there is weak low pressure above 25N. But I can see any given site easily getting a 5-6" rainfall day out of this. My best bet for tomorrow is somewhere between Pensacola and Waveland. I guess we'll see.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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aright 95L has sped up and is now about six to eight hours from going ashore. still no concentrated convection, no intensification. for the life of me i cant understand why this system never got organized, but there it is, just a goofy little elongated low windmilling towards the brownsville area.
cant really make any sense of the system around florida. never saw that swirl you guys were talking about.. must have been some mid level mcc feature. there is still some convection persisting over the eastern gulf now.. still the odd models wanting a low to be there. broad and disorganized like 95L, confidence low. there is some weak upper ridging in the area, but this is a start from scratch situation... it would take a big convective mass a while to get the pressure falls and such going.
anyhow, dont see a system this week now that 95L has gone cold. maybe late july after all.. maybe later.
HanKFranK aiken sc 0556z09july
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Matthew
Unregistered
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I was looking at the so call D scale and the Eastern pacific system has a 2.0 that tropical storm. As for are low no chance in less the thunderstorms reform. As for the system northwest cuba there might be a spin. tropics look some what boring and atlantic elseware not word might be wrong. No forecast in the western pacific this time.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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yep, 95L has pretty much fallen apart again overnight, and is only a few more hours away from the coast. Therefore, i dont expect to see much happen with this system now, and the recon flight will probably be cancelled by this morning.
As for the Florida system, i too did not get chance to see the apparent LLCC cross the peninsula. However, as some models indicate a low developing, and the abundance of convective activity in the general region, this could be the area that sees our next uneventful and disorganised disturbance develop...
Interesting that in the past week we have had 3 or 4 features that have shown a good shot at trying to kick off, but for some reason none of them have quite made the grade... there is just something missing from the equation at the moment, but once all the ingredients are there, get ready for a bumpy ride!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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System in western GOM is running out of time and convection this morning and probably will be a non event... at best, from a climatological viewpoint, the system had only a one in five chance of development... (only 20 named storms since 1886 during the first 10 days of July)
Perhaps the only game in town for the next couple of days will be in eastern GOM. Latest IR shows some perky convection in the eastern GOM and FL straits.... Vis loops do not indicate any rotation to the system ... Observations from the data buoys show relatively high pressure in the eastern GOM and FL straits as well... Additionally I could find no low pressures over the state of Florida either.... so nothing is happening fast or going to happen fast ... probability of something developing IMO less than 15% at the moment, but nevertheless, something to watch...
Only the model this morning shows a weak low forming (1008-1012 mb) in the northern GOM off the mouth of the MS river in 120 hours... I could find none of the other models jumping on this system... yet
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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FWIW, the Penn State 15 km Tropical run was doing the same thing in nearly the same location last night. (Closed low centered S of the Miss River)
(Added) and actually does it today as well on the 00Z run from last night...parks it just south of the mouth and deepens it for about 72 hours with no definative motion to speak of (would be a HEAVY rain even from NO to MOB)
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Jason Kelley
Edited by wxman007 (Tue Jul 09 2002 09:27 AM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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http://hurricane.essc.psu.edu/
Penn State model also projects a weak low pressure system off the mouth of the MS river with pressures down to about 1004 in central LA/MS in about 120 hours.. If this come to fruition then Steve and I should expect some significant rain in the next couple of days... Now, do you believe in models?
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Jason, I live west of Tampa in Pinellas County. Do you expect this to be a heavy rainmaker for his area? 120 hours out from Miss. river sure seems like a lot of time just off the coast here.
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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Generally don't like to make that kind of call until a low at least FORMS (lol), but if the , et al, verify, then I'd think it would be a rough boating weekend, but you'd be pretty far away from the center, and might very well be in the fringe subsidence and have a beautiful weekend....it will depend on storm location and track (if it forms at all...which isn't at this point likely)
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Jason Kelley
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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If ETA pans out west central may in for some heavy come wed/thu. ETA also spins low in western and moves it nnw toward florida panhandle region. While AVN is not as impressive with low level development. I'am staying near AVN for now but will keep a close eye on future model runs.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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>>Another broad area of low pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is producing widespread cloudiness...showers and scattered thunderstorms that extend Eastward across the Florida Peninsula. While surface pressures are high...upper-level winds are marginally favorable and some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days as it drifts slowly west or nothwestward.
That was the legible (NON CAPS) version from this morning's TPC outlook. I had initially assumed that any massing convection would put storms further to the north than where they are, so my prediction for some flooding rains might be a day or two early. Coastal SW LA has been under some training bands all morning, but I haven't checked the rainfall rates down there yet since this is my first day back to work since last Tuesday and I'm swamped.
If there is a 120 hour low off the mouth, I'm wondering if this isn't a trof split with the soon to be descending trof coming out of the NE or if this is the system that we're looking at now or a solution factoring in both.
At least things will be interesting up here over the next few days. Btw, cloudy and low 80's so far today. I'll take that.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous-(Doug)
Unregistered
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The sattelite and radar suggests that a low (whether surface or not I cannot tell) in the eastern Gulf is now about 150-175 miles west of Naples (wnw of Key West)...it is very broad and elongated NNW-SSE...it was evident yesterday about 50-75 miles west of Key West...but it has not deepened much obviously in that time and only drifted about 100 miles wnw...the radar suggsts heavier rain in the vicinity of the low on the eastern side, at least compared to yesterday...the WV suggests conditions NOT favorable to rapid development as there is poor evacuation possibility NE of this system and a trough is digging down to the coast north and NE...Looks like lots of rain to me as it drifts around out there... EDS>
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Latest GOES-8 IR has an explosion of convection developing in the eastern GOM.... very impressive, but will it last?
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Obviously have to wait to see if any pressure drop but man it looks impressive. Just had a storm move thru here in Pinellas County moving Souhteast to Northwest with some very strong winds and heavy rain. I've been telling a couple friends since the storms came rolling thru yesterday afternoon that these aren't the usual summer Florida storms. Something very erie about the sky, clouds, wind direction, etc.... Last 2 days there has been no West Coast seabreeze which is very unusual in the summer. We shall see.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Doug, I agree with you on the rotation... latest vis sat loop certainly appears to indicate a BROAD counter clockwise rotation NNW-SSE at least in the mid levels... Pressures from the buoys still remain relatively high this afternoon.. One buoy in the area reported wind gusts of 27k in the past hour or so....
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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So did I speak to soon on broad low pressure in eastern gulf? Convection looks very impressive with a notable rotation. Although looked at some buoys in eastern gulf a none show any real lowering of pressures at this time. I think there may be some slow development the next few days.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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wasnt 95L ridiculous? say what you like about probabilities of a system this time of year, but to me it looked set up. anyhow it's pushed ashore and no news. most of its convection is going across extreme south texas, where it wont be quite the bother it would be in the hill country. for a few hrs now surface obs in the eastern gulf are suggesting that a low is a beam of tampa around 85w. lowest pressures are only about 1017-1018mb. only positive to this area is that there is a lot of convection, and the signature is healthy. right now the outlook says pretty much everything there is to say about this area.
it has a long way to go.
away to the east there is some little mentioned wave convection north of puerto rico. that should be arriving near florida around the time the easterlies slow to a crawl due to the upcoming eastern trough this week.
ya know i was SURE we'd have a system today. goes to show how finicky tropical systems are. and how easily convinced i am.
HF aikenSC 1837z09july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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well i'll be. invest 96L at 27.3/85.8, d1.0 as of 1745z. we get a new one about every other day now it seems.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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http://www.tnrcc.state.tx.us/updated/air/monops/data/satellite/GULF/vis/latest.vis.jpeg
Here's the high-res of 96.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous-Doug
Unregistered
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I actually like the chances of 96L to develop...the latest visible actually shows the center, I think, and it is in the midst of the cloud mass...this signature is confirmed on the IR4 and IR2, and on radar there is no doubt a more closed circulation...there is a definite west componet to the movement of the rain on the south side, and the actual overcast is enlarging somewhat..lots of thunderstorms on radar...a depression tomorrow, IMO.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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96L ah... well is it going to go the same way as numbers 90 to 95?? who knows! Certainly has a good signatue, and it will be interesting to see if have anything more to say on it in the 530pm update...
95L is now inland, heading NW. That one got me! I was sure it would develop, as was many other people, but for some reason it just did not get going. So before i make any predictions on 96L it is gonna have to show it might be a more determined system!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Doug...I just looked at that and I have to say that I am seeing the same thing you are seeing. They mentioned it here this morning on the local wx and also the WC talked about it also. I looked at the page and didn't see 96L there yet. Is that where you found it? I will go with you on the movement as I really can't tell since it just seemed to have blossomed all of the sudden this afternoon. Huge amounts of oranges and reds in the t-storms also. The rain we got here in C. Florida today looked more tropical in nature than that of your regular afternoon seabreeze. Will be interesting to see what happens with it. Also...one more thing before I forget...the Storm Visibles (Is that the right phrase for it? LOL) that's updated every 1/2 hour is focusing on this also. So I would say they are a little interested in it also. Have not checked buoy data yet, or any other information.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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colleen and anyone else who cares, the ratings are on an ssd (satelite services division) page. the way i understand it, ssd and both do ratings on the systems.. i'm not sure which is which, usually they are the same but sometimes come out different.
the d-ratings can be found at:
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/position.html
they are run every six hours, right before the 00Z,06z,12z and 18Z times.
the names for the systems given do not match what you will find on the page, i guess they restart the numbers every month at ssd. that is why the system we are calling 96L is shown as 93L. why they use numbers in the 90s i have no idea. if i was running the show theyd both have the same name and start with invest 01.. but it isnt my bureaucracy.
as for the system, it still has a confused unfocused look to it. SFC obs arent suggesting a low any more, and to me it looks elongated NW-SE, with more happening back SE than earlier.
95L is inland and looking better than ever! that would be the classic weak system landfall in texas, of course. the seabreeze front it dragged with it is going to drench parts of texas, maybe those that would rather not have it.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2147z09july
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Thanks for that info! I've bookmarked for future use. I don't know what's going to happen with that system in the E.Gulf ...it could die out or it could blossom.
One thing I do know is that the more I watch these things, the more I learn. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Looks like we may have someting here. There appears to be good banding feature on western side of this system. I do think will have are first depression tomorrow or thu. Heavy wx here with numerous waterspouts and tornado!
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
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Dude, I was saying the same thing to my wife Last night when we got those t-storms. It was weird, because they where coming in bands almost like a tropical system . Of course we do have a tropical wave sitting ontop of us ! Then today at work about 4:30 p. m. I was on a test drive at work and I kept noticing how the clouds over the gulf looked very strange.......... Stranger than normal !!! Then cruzin home, the weather radio in my truck goes off about 5:16 Tornado Warning for southern Pinellas . GEEZ Heading right for it too !!!!!!...Any hoo, some stuff brewing down south too with ridging building . We will have to keep an eye on it . LATER ! ....
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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About the same here. Lots of hovering low clouds mixed in and around stratus and building cumulus. When I left the house at 5:15, I looked out west of the airport and saw a MASSIVE anvil cloud with lightning running all through it and even cracking off into the deep blue sky next to it. It was a textbook storm - wish I would have had a camera with me.
We didn't get any rain in town today. It looked for most of the day like all the rainclouds were south of the city. It's a little breezy out of the east.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Sure looks like it wants to form doesn't it! It's suppose to be heading NW. How certain is that. Don't need it to stall over s. Florida!
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Earlier today I gave our little tease in the eastern GOM about a 15% chance of developing.... It's managed to hang around most of today with some good convection, although it does appear that the convection is somewhat on the decline tonight... it might be trying to redevelop its broad center off more to the southeastern GOM... but this is just a SWAG I might add
I'll up my probability to say 20-25% possible development into a TD by tomorrow or Thursday based on its overall perfromance and persistence from today... and the obserations from the good people of Florida who have been experiencing some of the effects of the system and have posted accordingly...
However, the system is still lacking any significant pressure falls... lowest I could find in the area was 1016.4 mb... Based on what's happen so far this season there have been several systems that we thought might get cranking but for a plethora of reasons never did... this certainly may pan out to be another one.... time will tell...
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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The local weather guys here said that the system in the eastern gulf would not have an effect on us because it would turn more towards the NW over time. Is that a safe bet or could this thing still be able to make it all the way to the upper Texas coast?
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CaneMAn
Unregistered
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Well, I guess it's dead now. According to Steve Lyons the shear to the North of itstopped the convection from wrapping around and has opened it up into a trough. Boy this is getting frustrating. Rad and Joe - I guess we had something like 5 waterspouts and a tornado right around rush hour. Man was that sky ominous or what.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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I just finished looking at the IR-4 ifrared loop and it looks Steve Lyon's eyes could be playing tricks on him. Reasons:
1. Convection is dying on the western band of the system, giving this system the appearance that it is being pulled apart. This is just the way it looks. If convection was to reform here, I'm sure Steve Lyons wouldn't be saying this.
2.NHC said the environment was "favorable" for development. At this time I don't really see any major clouds blowing off to the east of the system.
3.If you look very, very closely into the center, you can see a very small circulation inside of the system. If this feature were to experience a lowering of heights, it would easily pull the convection back into itself, if this is the case.
4.The report came from , okay? I wouldn't rely on anything they say. This area is only in it's developing stages and will likely experience such things.
Time will tell.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
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Yea Cane, I was heading home from work , stopped and got 12 cold ones , going south down gulf blvd , The sky was wicked black towards the skyway, and across the gulf to the northwest. About that time the weather radio goes off .....everything kewl here though, couldnt see nothing, rain wrapped, but ....LOTSA WATER !!! Get ready for more tommorow. ..... LATER !
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Pressures need to drop a fair amount before theres a chance of development. I'am sort of back and forth with this system with 25% chance of development. Do think convection will fire up tomorrow again. Plus another wet day here in Florida as well.
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Matthew
Unregistered
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My forecast is gone all gone the whole world then I went to check for more stuff on the site won'd I came back it was gone so later Might make it again that I was working on for a hour had perfect spelling and tropical forcast wait a few hours. or two!!!
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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this late check after the all-star game and i dont see much of anything. low level feature going away west, upper ridge quashed, convection gone. there really isnt much to track.. maybe it will reorganize further west, or maybe this one is done. models showing a pretty dead week.
HanKFranK aikenSC 0511z10july
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Evryone on the east coast should keep an eye out early next week , its getting that time when the cape verd could fire one out before the gulf. It hasent happend for a while, so why not this year  . There is disturbance at 10n 42w wich has nice circulation and the best outflow i hace scene all season. The disturbance has just come out of of colder water (77F) and is entering warmer water, once past 50w it will encounter much more favorable water temps (80-81F) for development.
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Robert
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 258
Loc: Southeast, FL
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I forgot to login on That one
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Matthew
Unregistered
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The avn model shows a weak low area and the atlantic so that will need to be watched.  There low wil more likely be a weak low and for now. I have not looked at it yet so that will takes some time. A t.d and the eastern pacific looks weak but  all models want make a nice hurricane out of it. The western pacific look nice looking wish it was the atlantic right now maybe later!!!. No less and three named storms at this time and maybe one more soon there a fair and 1.0 one one invest. There even a invest and the southern part of earth for wishing at lound so that low and the eastern gulf no chance. l
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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There ants on my bed they have bit my for the last time. plus I NO WHY THERE NO TROPICAL WEATHER THOSE DINO JERKS ARE MESSING IT UP I hate the people that mess with mother nature I help they all die from a hurricane. he he sssss!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 114
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.32N 80.35W
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It's third morning in a row to get up around 6:30 am with the sounds of rain and thunder. The radar is lit up agian. Getting really soggy in a lot of places, much standing water.
A look at the WV shows the dryer air that came in from NE yesterday afternoon and split the area in GOM. It now shows a beautiful cyclonic spin centered roughly over the big lake, (Okeechobee).
Seems to my eyes to have created a buffer that pushed back or allowed the flow of moisture from the SE to bank up agianst it. If anything looks like posible development has been pushed back SE about 200 miles.
Really interesting weather this week.
Colleen was so correct in saying how much you learn from the reading online and learning to use the tools that now seem so normal but a few years ago were inaccessable to all but the pros.
Anyways, check it out this morning and give some feedback on my experienced but unofficial musings
Watching the rain
Hurric
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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
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Me too. Seems like it is a dailey, early morning scenario. Looking at the latest water vapor loop it looks like an upper low crossed over central Florida last night bringing in the rain from the South. Looks like more to come later today and again in the morning. Anyone look at Tropical StormRisk.com July 8 update for this season. He's comparing this season with 97. How, I don't know. Two different El Nino's. Ya have to go in read it for yourself. Well everyone in S.Florida have a safe and WET day.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Regarding the eastern GOM..
1. Pressure still high in area
2. Convection, although fell off last night, is on the comeback
3. Reviewing the water vapor loop it appears that there is an ULL that has cross central FL and is exiting the Tampa/St P. area also headed for the GOM.
4. I believe this ULL is also contributing to the convection increase with the GOM system.
5. I also think that the ULL will hinder any further development of this system for the time being due to its close proximity.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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well 96L is still being assigned D-numbers of 1.0 / 1.0 today. Early visible imagery shows that most of the convection are in the southern two quadrants, with the NW and NE quadrants both relatively convection free. However, given the increase in convection, there is a posibility that the system may develop if the convective activity can consolidate near the centre. Still, an interesting looking system, and one to keep an eye on!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 IWN
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Latest vis sat loop indicates that there is at least a weak mid level system rotating IMO south of Mobile near 27.3N and 87.2W. Last loops show some convection building off to the north and east of the broad center.. this is quite a bit off of where this system was yesterday... looks to be moving west .... strange things these tropical systems.... not exactly what I expected from the vis sat loop this am...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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One more observation... look at the water vapor loop... the mid level rotation is sandwiched between two ULLs, one coming off the coast of Florida and the other westsouthwest of the mid level low south of Mobile... looks like a rather hostile environment for any thing to develop at the present time
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Matthew
Unregistered
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I was looking at this and said wow it looks tight low leavel or middle center at 27.3 86.8. Plus there a thunderstorms forming on its north side so the d-scale 1.0 so 25 mph winds and if this thunderstorm keeps forming than there a chance for a t.d by later on today that if this thing blooms up fast and there a chace but we look at another low to the west and that might take some of its fire so just watching so 20 percent t.d soon look like a few rainbands with the system. Matthew
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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applying the weird behavior rules of previous systems to this one, i've noticed some similarities--
1)displaced convection: very little at the low center, some on 'bands' in the SE quadrant, most of it clustered off west florida.
2)daily convective peak: usually with tropical systems you get a noctural convective maxima.. convection peaks overnight. all our recent invests tend to lose nighttime convection and get it back in the morning.. convection has been historically associated with convergence lines, areas of upper diffluence, seabreeze fronts, and mccs. the low never shares in the wealth.
3)broad surface low with stable pressures: systems remain clear and discrete at the low levels.. 96L has a low level wind field at least 400 miles in diameter right now.. and a lowest centreal pressure of maybe 1015mb that hasnt risen or fallen appreciably.
i have to admit that the low on this one looks more focused than 95L's...not oblong. maybe if some convection would form there and tighten this baby up we'd get something. as is, 15kt winds is all the ferocity this one has to offer.
pressures over land are going to start falling in about a day up to the north as a surface trough approaches. this should halt the mostly wnw movement of 96L, then drift it north to the coast. based on extrapolated movement i'd reckon it to be coming up near SE louisiana. so if a storm forms, steve and frank p are getting it.
without the previous failures i'd be more optimistic about 96L's chances, but given recent history.. i give it a 40% standing chance of becoming something.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1551z10july
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
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Remember how Gabrielle formed last year ? The same way , an ULL crossed over the state of Florida then sat in the Gulf and built ,till it found it's way out thru Sarasota / Bradenton. Not saying this is going to happen again , I just remember the same conditions last September
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Yeah, I remember Rad. Also have read several different opionins on how old gabby was a minimal Hurrican at land fall but they never announced it perhap because it was so soon after 9/11. Went to be it was 40 mph headed to Ft. Myer wole up and it's coming in just south of us at 70 mph. From what I read the pressure reading at landfall was low enough to support Cat 1. I lost quite a few big branches from that one.
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
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I remember too Caneman, my barometer dropped to 985 mbs' it was real close.I was out on St Pete Beach with an Anemometer it was recording 75MPH winds with gust to 90 , I could barely stand up !
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Good post HF... I agree... especially if this system can tighten up a bit and get some more convection near its center then maybe in a day or so it has a chance...
Also think we're all sorta getting a little gun shy on predicting what will or will not develop based on our experiences to date this season... apparently mother nature not in a cooperative mood the year
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962002) ON 20020710 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020710 1200 020711 0000 020711 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.0N 87.0W 27.3N 88.4W 27.5N 89.8W
BAMM 27.0N 87.0W 27.2N 88.3W 27.3N 89.6W
A98E 27.0N 87.0W 27.2N 88.4W 27.4N 89.6W
LBAR 27.0N 87.0W 27.4N 88.5W 27.9N 89.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020712 0000 020712 1200 020713 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.9N 90.9W 28.4N 91.4W 31.2N 89.0W
BAMM 27.5N 90.7W 27.8N 91.4W 30.2N 90.2W
A98E 27.1N 90.5W 27.2N 90.7W 29.2N 89.8W
LBAR 28.6N 90.6W 29.4N 90.8W 32.5N 87.8W
SHIP 33KTS 43KTS 59KTS
DSHP 33KTS 33KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.0N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 26.4N LONM12 = 85.3W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 25.7N LONM24 = 83.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Help!!
I am planning a trip to Grand Isle, Louisiana this weekend. Will this thing impact my trip? If so, how much? Thanks
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Yeah. Bring your surfboard. It should be great for swimming and surfing, but if the low hangs out beyond Friday, it's gonna suck to be in a boat. Also, if it were to develop into anything named, they'll probably order a mandatory evacuation of the island as they always do. In that case, just hang out in Leesville or Port Fourchon instead until they lift the order. If you're there to fish, fish the marshes north of Grand Isle (Golden Meadow, Leesville, etc.).
"Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the low pressure area located about 270 miles southeast of New Orleans, Louisiana has become a little better organized. Upper level winds are expected to become more favorable over the Northern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow and some slow development of this system is possible as it moves slowly weset-northwestard. An air force reserve recon is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow if necessary."
Something about hearing New Orleans and possible development just makes me all warm and fuzzy inside. Now if this was something legit, maybe my desk might have risen a few inches off the ground.
Anyway, I'm thinking that the threat of heavy rainfall will still be between Waveland and Pensacola. I'm a couple of days late with my 6-7" of rainfall prediction because of all of the moisture coalescing (sp?) around the low rather than all across the northern gulf. So instead of the Tues-Wed period, it's more likely going to be in the late Thurs-Friday period. All models were running this thing up through the Panhandle, but I don't know for sure as I haven't looked at anything lately. If it stays weak, the eastern side will be the rainy side.
Cheers back at ya!
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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Can't believe you guys aren't talking about THAT yet....
Cat 2-3 storm near Apalachicola by Late Friday???
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002071012-invest96l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
Discuss.
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Jason Kelley
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jth
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 275
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Do you really think this is reasonable? If this thing makes it to a minimal TS I will be impressed. Also, I think it will go a little west of there. Maybe between New Orleans and Pensacola.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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I dunno JK. I find the to be the hardest model of all to read. I just look for shapes and focus points on it, becase I've never really spent the time to figure it out.
It looks like the current surface quasi-circulation is somewhere due south of the AL/MS border around 87.6. I would assume that a new one would have to form further east under tomorrow's convection in order to blow it up to a Cat 2 or Cat 3. If it gets shunted out NNE or NE as most of the models want to do (and that would be by Saturday at the latest), I'd give it maybe medium TS strength of say 50-55mph.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Yeah I was looking at the test model run that the puts out when I ran across your post... then I went viewed the actual model run.... UNBELIEVABLE... I'm shocked...
A 926.9 MB with 104K winds.... That is truly unbelievable... now the big question you have to ask yourself is.... Do you believe in models? (I'm having a hard time in believing this one after what happened thus far in the season, but I guess we'll find out soon enought as this thing is basically right on top of the northern GOM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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On the other hand, I guess if you actually ANIMATE the animation mode and read what it says, it's not that hard to figure out afterall. LOL. I sucked at - UNTIL NOW!
Muhahahahahaha.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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I don't know that I believe it, but we need to pay attention to it....here is why.
The was notorious last year in getting the "numbers" wrong (pressures and winds)...however, it did generally a very good job in "trends"...I think it's picking up on something, real or not, that I can't see...there is that ULL low to the east that is a hindrance, but if it gets out of the way the conditions will be VERY good for deepening.
Do I think we will have a 104kt storm late Friday? Not at this point. Do I think that something is about to happen? I AM leaning in this direction (the has been preaching development for quite a while now....)
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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thats a pretty normal run. notice that it initializes the storm a little off, better organized than it is. the model is believable in situations like this.. slow moving storm that intensifies rapidly.. only when a well defined center exists.
gfdl is only predicting that the low will focus and feed back on itself, after all hurricanes are only an efficient way to transfer atmospheric heat.. think of it like a heat siphon that builds on itself once it gets going. think of it as a leak in a dam that becomes a dam break. but the crack isnt there yet, even though convection on the south side away from the center of the low is rather robust at this hour.
i'll get worried if this persists... this is a slow moving gulf system.. but i'm not yet ready to hear the doom cries of people who think every invest will become a major hurricane.
show me a classified system, that is the test.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2014z10july
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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I will say one thing. I am taking a weather class this semester and I will say that I have a new found respect for those who read all of the models and charts. I would never want to do that all day long. Jason, I give you all of the credit in the world, man. Well, here is the ? I couldnt get any of the models up on my comp, it wouldnt load quick enough or something, but where if it develops will it head? Sounds like a poll coming on....
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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It takes a while to load up the animation on a dial-up connection...be patient...
The problem isn't reading models, it's trusting them...a good forecaster looks for reasons a model is wrong (IMHO)...instead of simply believing a model is correct. I'm NOT sold yet, and my thoughts generally echo HankFranks...but it does bear watching...
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Jason Kelley
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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well joe B is watching 96L too, added a second post to his daily word. same sort of stuff being said here. basically once the progress starts that nothing should stop it.. unlike barry last year, which one could draw obvious parallels to. remember old 95L.. for another day it looks better over land than it ever did over water.
anyhow i looked at all the frames of on the psu model site.. they show more than just the 78hr time now, goes all the way out to 120hr. anyhow just funny to see an intact tropical storm coming right overhead here on saturday. sort of adds to the unreality factor. right now there is a struggling 1015mb low in the gulf, and had to go put visions of a major hurricane in everybody's heads.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2050z10july
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andy1tom
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
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Amazing! Looks like Jason will be getting some o/t this week. Is the plane still going out tomorrow or are they considering going this afternoon? Will you have this new info on at 5?
Andy
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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Well, my daughter's first Birthday is Friday...we were supposed to go out of town to my parents in West Alabama for a party...may send the wife and kids without me...
Yes, we will discuss the situation at 5, 6, and 10...probably not in depth at this point...(I'm NOT going on the air and mentioning the specifics of the GDFL!), but we will pay close attenion to it...
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Jason Kelley
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 10, 2002
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Surface pressures are beginning to fall in the northern Gulf of
Mexico in association with the low pressure area centered about 265
miles southeast of New Orleans. However...satellite images indicate
that the thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Upper-level
winds are expected to become a little more favorable for Tropical
Cyclone formation as the system meanders in the north central Gulf
of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow...if necessary.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
Forecaster Avila
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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interresting to see the holds the system together as it heads NE across Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina to emerge off the coast near the NC / VA border as a 78 kt system, then deepens it again as it heads over the Atlantic. I dont think we will see development on the scale that this model is indicating, but development in to a TD then a TS, possibly a strong TS is quite possible once conditions approve. Also interesting to note that the surface pressures are begining to drop across the region.
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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Also interesting is that the has a similiar, but more tranquil solution with a closed low moving across the FL Panhandle and reemerging off the NC coast...
Don't like the much, but when it starts to agree with other models I pay attention!
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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As usual, us over here in the western gulf miss out on all the excitement. We just seem to get the ones that are suppose to develop and never do. What happens if this thing doesn't develop as quickly as the models are saying it will; will that give it a chance to move a bit further west than what they think it will now?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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We have a closed low in the Gulf?
Visible shows a clearly defined circulation, as does the latest QUIKSCAT passes. New convection appears to be trying to fire in the NW quadrant of the storm. JB is jumping all over it. And my daughter's 1st birthday party is Saturday.
How can something NOT form!?!?
(tongue in cheek mode OFF)
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Jason Kelley
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Matthew
Unregistered
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Just watched Joe b weather show and he saids that this would not weaking over land. I think he taking about a tropical low. But it sound like that even if a hurricane came inland that it would not weaken at all that would be the 100 year storm that can be that strong and stay over land that could be tropical storm or cat 5 hurricane the way he sided it. I no there alot of wet and the upper air but not enough to keep a powerful storm from weaking
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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has anyone noticed the increasing area of deep convection very near to the circulation centre? could this be the start of a possible feature? I am thinking that although it is still poorly organised, 96L might actually become the first system of the season now!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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the lack of immediate development became pretty clear to me when i ran the wv loop. 96L is struggling to find a place. directly to the east is an upper low, and naturally this upper low is bringing a trail of subsidence right across the surface low. that is why the northern half of the system is.. for lack of a better expression.. bald. anyhow i get the feeling that since there is a broad low over warm water and there are places nearby that convection could thrive, i'm thinking it will either do a center relocation or just flounder in its current state until a sustained feature can fight its way through. subsidence on the low is like sand on the fire, it keeps it from doing much.
anyhow, i have a feeling that once the system finally gets a healthy convective look it will start to spin up like a pissed tasmanian devil. of course this could start tonight or three nights from now right on the coast. or inland like 95L, as fate would have it.
as for a timetable on movement, hard to say. how vertically deep the system is at any given time will play big on future movement, and that isnt something i trust any model to figure out. really no telling what the hell the system will do until it becomes a vertically stacked tropical system, otherwise we're trying to forecast the movements of a detached LLC in dead steering currents. the globals answer with this solution.. sort of drift it north or northwest and keep it a sissy rainmaker into the weekend. remember, the globals were right about 95L never developing and going inland. days later, same situation, they still say nothing is going to happen. but if something does happen, it should happen FAST.
so anyhow, much said, hope i made some sense.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2339z10july
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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After watching this thing a little closer I have to say that I don't see it doing much at all. The upper low to the east of it is doing a number on our system. I'm wondering if this year will turn out like last year did when we thought a system would really get going but there seemed to be that one little thing that stood in its way. That would be good news for all of us along the gulf coast as far as not seeing a major one hit us,but it sure makes for some very dull posts like the one I'm doing now. I like it when things are popping and everyone on here is posting left and right. All of you have such great insight and ya'lls views and knowledge always shine through, but especially when things get active. Even though I know that this system will not provide us in Texas with any excitement, I am just happy to see all the wonderful comments that everyone has about what might happen with it. That is what makes this site so great; wonderful people being able to discuss and share with other wonderful people their love for weather, more specifically, TROPICAL SYSTEMS!! THANKS GUYS FOR LETTING ME BE A PART OF IT!!!
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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...much less omnious...
Doesn't do much with this at all..just drifts it as a semi-open low towards NW Florida...interesting...quite the reversal from 12Z!
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Jason Kelley
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ShawnS
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
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I don't think the page will have 96L up very much longer; not much reason to.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Chalk one up for the ULL. The longest WV loop I could find on just a quick surf only had 30 frames (G8). But it occurred to me (and I was wondering) if maybe this is the same ULL that's been slowly crusing across the West Atlantic. If it is, it's been pretty cool watching on the WV's for the last week or so. I'd have to search the satelite archives I guess.
The ULL is moving SW over the Gulf. GOM will probably flare up some tomorrow - another daytime event to watch from work. Somebody's still gonna get a bunch of rain out of this before it's over. There's the disturbed weather in the Gulf and a big trof coming down that's probably going to hang around for a few days. So one way or another, those several inches of rain are gonna come. I swear
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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On average the first named storm develops around July 11th. Someone should see a Hurricane this year. Never went Three years without a Hurricane making landfall somewhere in the US. But, records are made to be broken. I feel a slow start to this years Hurricane season. I have been told the East coast of Florida will be hit this year. This may sound stupid but the sea turtles are nesting on the dunes this year. A co-worker working with sea turtles has been keeping track of this for over 10 years now. I dont think it is true but he seems to think so. We will see if this pans out. What do the rest of you think about the sea turtle theory?
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Robert
Storm Tracker
Reged: Sat
Posts: 258
Loc: Southeast, FL
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Thats Interesting i live in Stuart,fl i noticed a few sea turtles were nesting in the dunes back in may i havent been paying that much attention reecently i will have to take a look next time i am at the beach. I have also noticed that all the upper lows that sat over the bahamas the past few seasons seem to be sitting on me this season so i really am interested to see what that means only time will tell.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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well just a brief post before i dash out, but the latest IR images show some increase in the convective activity associated with the broad low. The convection is diorganised, but there is definitely more of it noew than an hour or two ago..
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Recent check of Buoy 42003 shows pressure of 29.95 lowest yet and wind speeds of 25 kts/ and gusts of 33kts. We'll see what happens but I would say this thing will need to develop today because on Saturday it is forecast to be kicked out.
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Just checked all buoys in area in all are showing their lowest pressure yet with one a .5 drop from 1 to 5 am.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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ok, latest IR imagery shows a clearly defined circulation centre near26.85N 87.90W. This feature is 75% surrounded by convection, with the NW quadrant still convection free. However, spiral bands are now evident in the IR imagery to the SW of the centre. Compare this with the reported pressure drops and i think we might actually see TD One today. First light visible imagery will certainly tell us more!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Matthew
Unregistered
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This is looking good with a nice spin and low leavel cloud bands. I think that the thunderstorms will take hold because of light shear and wow this was not any were near as nice looking as earlyer so the system might do it. I give 60 percent today move it west for 12 to 24 hours then take it to the west north west intill 36 hours than turn it northeast and the 48 to 72 hour time so forecasted at land fall if this keeps at it tropical storm coast rain 2" inches or more the rest ofthe atlantic wave and the eastern atlantic needs watched. Pacific t.d 4 weak and not very good looking. two tropical systems and the western pacific. So next hurricane forecast thursday might wright again if the tropical low and the gulf becomes the first t.d.
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962002) ON 20020711 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020711 1200 020712 0000 020712 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.2N 87.7W 27.6N 88.5W 28.2N 88.9W
BAMM 27.2N 87.7W 27.5N 88.0W 28.1N 88.0W
A98E 27.2N 87.7W 27.4N 87.5W 28.0N 87.1W
LBAR 27.2N 87.7W 27.4N 88.0W 28.0N 88.1W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020713 0000 020713 1200 020714 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.4N 88.7W 31.1N 87.1W 35.2N 81.7W
BAMM 29.1N 87.1W 30.4N 85.3W 33.5N 81.1W
A98E 28.9N 86.2W 30.5N 84.8W 34.0N 81.6W
LBAR 28.9N 87.8W 30.1N 87.0W 33.5N 84.4W
SHIP 38KTS 48KTS 57KTS
DSHP 38KTS 48KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 87.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 27.0N LONM12 = 87.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 27.0N LONM24 = 87.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 185NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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Matthew
Unregistered
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I was looking at this and there is not the low we have been watch it look like this is taking that low and eatting it less shear and more thunderstorms. The low leavel center is strong and looks very powerful if this can build more thunderstorms and this will be a t.d. 80 percent tropical storm thursday and friday. please tell me what you think of this low.
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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I just checked the early morning visible sat. loop...only a few frames, but I thought I noticed a couple things: First, it looked to me like there was a very small non-convective spin located to the north of the main area of convection (due south of Pensacola, abreast of the Tampa area). This spin looks like a seperate feature...is it the UL that moved across Florida??
To my fairly un-trained eye, it also appears that the thunderstorm activity present in the S & SW quadrant banding is undergoing some shear, blowing off to the S. Am I alone in this observation?
Louis Jones
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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kind of looks like t.d 4 of 2000. That low was a low with rain bands so whats keeping the nation hurricane center.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Well here's my analysis on the gulf low. After looking over ruc streamline analysis shows the LLC is located near 27 N / 88.5 W. This appears to be the main area of spin currently seen on visible satellite loop. The upper low is near 26.5 N / 83.5 W. Upper low is closer to Fort Myers say 150 miles west. Also of note on 250 mb analysis showed a upper level high pressure located over southeast states. Now if this were to move south the next couple of days and upper low gets kicked south of surface low I think there would be a good chance of development. This situation would also reduce wind spear which is currently located on northside of the system. Current shear is due in fact to upper low to the east and upper level high to north thus increasing winds in between the two allowing for not the greatest environment for further development. I do expect things to get better the next couple of days as upper high builds south in response to trough in east. So I still believe we may still get are first TD of season.
Joe
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MarkR
Unregistered
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I agree with upper low postion and with the dry air to the north of the LLC development as well as movement should be slow if any over the next 24 hours. After that we may see more development as it drifts northward maybe even nne in time. Rain should increase over the southeast from Florida thru Louisiana thru the weekend whatever this system does or does not do.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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My earlier post indicated a clear circulation near the convection during the early morning hours. This circulation is now less evident on the latest IR loops... however there appears to be some rotation associated with the convection to the south of the evident LLCC. Possibly this may be associated with a mid-level circulation, or perhaps the whole broad low has several embedded circulations. For evidence of this turning in the convection GO HERE, set the animation instructions and then click near where the current LLCC is.
As conditions improve i still think this feature will eventually lead to our first TD of the season. Although conditions have been unfavourable the LLCC is quite tight and well defined so there is still a chance!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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sometimes I feal that they wait until there is no absolute doubt until they make a statement, but with so many people depending on them,"nhc" I dont blame them at all. To me it looks like it is getting better developed. I talked to my frind in Tampa and she said they are getting hammered with rain.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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We got hit pretty good here in St.Pete with one inch of rain this morning and more scattered showers in eastern gulf are heading this way.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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well the 0600Z run on 96L has again changed from the previous runs. The 0000z run did not really develop the system until it was close to emerging of the NC coast in about 4 days. However, the 0600z run keeps the disturbance poorly organised and 'open' for the first 30 hours (1200z Friday) but then deepens it to a Tropical Storm by 36 hrs (18z Friday). The then takes it inland near Apalachicola as a 50 - 55 kt storm around midday on Saturday. The centre is still shown as moving off the NC coast near Cape Hatteras at the 102 hr period, but is not deepened so much.
Rich B
GFDL Animation of 96L Forecast
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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i'm not sure what everybody is seeing. yes there are general pressure falls but pressures are falling everywhere because the surface high is out and the surface trough is nearing. visibles dont look that good, e.g., the low level center is elongated NE-SW and still located north of the convection. that upper low is moving in tandem with the surface low and keeping all the convection to the south. the SFC low is about a degree further north than yesterday, but still looks to be drifting west... maybe northwest. anyway i dont see it intensifying unless that dopey surface center refocuses elsewhere, like maybe under the convection.
i'm sort of a believer in systems getting choked for convection because it forms elsewhere away from the core, robs inflow. whatever surface low there is can continue, but never intensify... a zombie in the world of tropical systems. so basically i dont think it has a chance today. the convection will continue to brew in place, the low will drift around exposed, then by night the convection will die off and start again tomorrow. this process will either result in a tropical system tomorrow, if convection and low ever meet, or nothing as the low isnt staying out over the gulf for too much longer.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1641z11july
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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We have something brewing close to west florida and it would seem like all of the people over there would be jumping on it, but its realativialy quiet. Where are you colleen???
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Hey Gary, I'm over here near Clearwater Beach. Been getting lots of rain, water spouts it seems like every other day. Couple day ago we had 5 in one day. We complained forever about drought and now we're a Tropical rainforest. Been watching this system like the one in Texas before but to be honest with you it's getting old. Seems like every time a system crops up it has insurmontable obstacles to get past. Remember Steve Lyons saying he's never seem so many ULL in the gulf during summertime. Not a very good pattern.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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> Remember Steve Lyons saying he's never seem so many >Ull in the gulf during summertime. Not a very good pattern.
Was he saying that the gulf is going to be more active this year than was previously forecasted?
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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babycat upper lows in the gulf mean nothing good for tropical systems. the current one, for instance, is the reason 96L isnt arthur. ULLs only hang around for a few days, the fact that the gulf is full of them now means nothing for the season as a whole.
well anyhow i've got a hunch. if the center of 96L reforms today, it will do so about 100 miles SW of where it currently is (about 28,87). if it happens, fireworks begin at dusk.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1736z11july
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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HEy BabyCat. Yeah ULL's aren't good for development but I think the one out there now is far enough South that it may actually aid in rapid growth if the LLC gets going. I think it will if it doesn't run out of time, i.e. land. .
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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A look at surface streamlines still indicates its broad in nature and needs wrap up some more. Don't expect any TD/TS for at least couple days when the environment should improve.
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Anonymous-(Doug)
Unregistered
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Just looked at the storm floater loops..and it looks like things are focusing around 26/86...the surface low, if that is where it is, still has not moved to much in the last two days...about 100 miles since Monday...the influence of the upper low is almost invisible on the WV loop...like HF said this could go...I like the beginnings of an outflow that i see beginning over the Fla. Peninsula...this was stifiled for the last couple of days by the ULL that fell NE-SW, and now seems of no influence... the has said the upper air features would become more favorable as time went by...stay tuned.
EDS.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Thanks, Caneman!
I just would like to add in this topic that the Gulf waters may not be warm enough yet?!?
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Stormfan
Registered User
Reged: Thu
Posts: 1
Loc: Orlando,Florida
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Looks like it's beginning to wrap up a little. Definately better upper support on the east side today and improving as the upper level lows retrograde sw. Tough time trying to guess where the LLC and upper support will merge, but the way the convection is increasing they are probably in the process of "coming together" now. I agree with HankF probably re-locate the LLC s to sw of current position. First post, I have enjoyed watching the banter for the last couple of seasons and am glad to interact with some fellow stormfans. Orlando: light shower, wind ssw/10 b
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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Hi Babycat try this link I think it will clear things up. Gary
http://grads.iges.org/pix/hurpot.html
Edited by garyb (Thu Jul 11 2002 03:38 PM)
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Thanks! Help is always appreciated!
I've been only watching tropical weather for a little while, maybe 5 years. The more your learn, the more you want to learn. I love this site and the people on it. I've been using the site for about 3 years but this is the first year I've actually spoke!
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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system has a confused look to it. more twist to the clouds further south where the convection has been going all day, but that is weakening. pressures have dropped some this afternoon, but they have also fallen through the entire region with daytime heating/cold front approach. the nice circular surface windfield earlier today is also distorted now, elongated, more connected to the convection.
so heres what i think.. convection is/was supporting a center reformation on the southern side of the low, somewhere, and now the convection is weakening as it seems to every evening. so what may happen is the center doesnt reform, but remains that dopey low level swirl until tomorrow. or maybe a low will form in a better spot, say within 100 miles of 26/89, and take over. or maybe it will form back southeast towards the fla keys. i really dont know what will happen, this is a sloppy system now trying to transition into something besides an LLC with displaced convection. the theme last year was low latitude systems that outrun their convection, then come together as they recurve out to nowhere. this year it seems to be systems that never come together for days in spite of opportunity.
HanKFranK aikenSC 2132z11july
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Dropping my chance it's going to develop. For one I'am thinking it's going to run out of time because trough is likely to begin pulling it north and shooting northeast. I'am not dropping the chance of development altogether but thinks it's really slim now.
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Rich B
British Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
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TWD says that the whole system has several small circulations besides the one we have seen all day on visible imagery. Perhaps the centre may therefore relocate / reform near the convection. Also, as the ULL moves out of the way it may give the disturbance a window to develop. I must admit that i dont expect to see much any time soon. GDFL now develops it rapidly as it moves of the NC coast in a few days again, taking it to nearly 100 kts by 120 hrs.
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
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Rich B
SkyWarn UK
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
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In reply to:
We have something brewing close to west florida and it would seem like all of the people over there would be jumping on it, but its realativialy quiet
Hey Gary, We are here trust me brother !!!! We have had our share of serious weather here on the " Suncoast " I have been watching it for the past 3 days . Personally I am getting Prepped for the mighty month of SEPTEMBER !!!! LATER !!!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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oh no, the convection is all gone again. worry not, it goes away every evening, it will all come back tomorrow, for a fourth day of *EEK* suspense. har har. the new twist for friday will be an elongated low that will more easily recenter itself. otherwise looks like july 12 will just be a rehash of 95.. 96.. whatever the invest number is.. theyre all the same. july 12 will be ssdd, if you know what i mean. or who knows, maybe this annoying system will finally stop toying with us and either go away or develop.
HanKFranK aikenSC 0311z12july
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Rad
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W} 27.81N 82.73W
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Looks as if the morning visible has it "Drifting south" If we could get some persistance here, and some max noc convection we could be in for another Gabby. Looks like another rain band, squally, type of day here on the Suncoast. ........LATER !!
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RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE
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Matthew
Unregistered
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It's is gone 96L has walked out of the building a no thunderstorm messed up low that about what the nation hurricane center side at the 5:30 thing no chance the low will fade out like 95L and like them all. Just another low that neaver had a chance. There a tropical storma and the eastern pacific that more at of what I want to see. The western pacific looks good. Nothing more and atlanic and may have another invest and the eastern pacific of those thunderstorms keep firing just off the shore of mexico. One more thing is around 12 north 75 west and the atlantic looking like nice thunderstorms are firing and moving north so chances 20 percent. The wave by the lewards island sheared to heck to no chance the eastern atlantic waves there a few but not going for it and over time these have been making it longer and holding together intill the shear hits them maybe the cold water is at this time have warmed up just enough to hold a system together but the shear. Because the eastern atlantic wave look so good all we need is less shear so we might get are first storm from the eastern atlantic since every thing and the west has fall apart and these never had a chance. I think later and the season will have more storms and the gulf and western atlantic. Joe B side that the western atlantic high is stronger so the waves came looking so good and neaver make the turn but I think because the eastern atlantic is warming and the waves have been more fired up than last year plus the western atlantic high is so strong I think won'd we do get this storm it could be a andew from hell maybe the winds will be the speed of mitch the size of folyd and the storm that makes 1900 in kills look like a small thunderstorm. Heck this year this could be 3 or 4 or more storms like these maybe one right up the east coast cat 5 right and to new york new york and like the 1938 Moving up the coast at 70 mph this hell of a storm will make storm number one look like childs play then we have a storm cat 4 or 5 again came into texas like 1900 storm and maybe a few more hurricanes. This is what could helpen this year or any other year so don't say this is not caming and to the south east and gulf of mexico is way over due and this could be the year. That would not be good for texas think about the rain and flooding plus on top of winds. So that what could be caming there nother like it right now. Matthew
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Matthew
Unregistered
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the think is that my board is messed up so I mess letters.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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I'am closing the book on this low. It hasn't got it's act together and it's running out of time.
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CaneMan
Unregistered
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Don't write it off yet. Looks like it may be making a come back and ready to go off life support.
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