Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
|
|
I haven't looked at the 12Z UK Met yet, but the 12Z is focusing on NY/Long Island:
12z
Sandia,
It's not just that. There is a pattern and a history. Me? I'm not tense at all on this one because I feel like there's virtually no chance (IMHO < .01%) that I'll even see a cloud from this system.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
|
|
Just confirmed with a little birdie at that NOAA3 is a Gulfstream, and it is sampling Isabel right now.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
John C
Unregistered
|
|
For those having a bad time trying to post and it is not going through! For those who are writing long posts, your best bet would be to write your post in Microsoft Word, Word Pad or any type of text editor. Copy it then paste it on here. If for some reason it does not go through you still have it to try again. The site is getting hit harder than ever before so we are trying to work out the bugs of getting so many hits at once…
Thanks for all your comments and keep them coming
|
GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
|
|
Wow Steve! Tell us how you really feel! 
Not that I disagree...... 
|
SandiaFlower
Unregistered
|
|
Steve I thought that person might have been a bit rough on you. I hated to see people fuss over this.............and I do hope you are right on this. My apologies if it looked like I was trashing you. Sue
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 420
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
|
|
So, your gut feeling calls for East/Central Fl~ North C. landfall?
--------------------
________2013 Forecast: 16/8/4________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
scottsvb1
Unregistered
|
|
actually steve I was talking about Basardi and no one in here on the teleconnection things, and btw all your forcasts are what basardi always says....so if hes right your right,if hes wrong your wrong. But it wasnt directed to you and we all have our opinions and that's why i disregard his teleconections. Some will disagree with mine. We are human. So dont get personal with me on my 12-12 as im 12/13 hahaah j/k around but seriously i wasnt talking about you. Next time i wont be so nice in return and also i did see your posts a week back about me not knowing how to spell from Bill.  I type fast and do make typing errors like i see alot do. Dont have to critize that.
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
|
|
URNT12 KNHC 121712
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1712Z
B. 21 DEG 37 MIN N
58 DEG 08 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2375 M
D. 65 KT
E. 221 DEG 69 NM
F. 308 DEG 128 KT
G. 208 DEG 015 NM
H. 920 MB
I. 10 C/ 3078 M
J. 21 C/ 3051 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 3 NM
P. AF985 0113A ISABEL OB 05
MAX FL WIND 128 KT SW QUAD 1708Z.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
|
|
URNT12 KNHC 121712
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1712Z
B. 21 DEG 37 MIN N 58 DEG 08 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2375 M
D. 65 KT
E. 221 DEG 69 NM
F. 308 DEG 128 KT
G. 208 DEG 015 NM
H. 920 MB
I. 10 C/ 3078 M
J. 21 C/ 3051 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 3 NM
P. AF985 0113A ISABEL OB 05 MAX FL WIND 128 KT SW QUAD 1708Z.
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
|
|
jinx
|
joepub1a
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
|
|
SandiaFlower- I would get the steak delivered, but then I'd have to get up to get a beer anyway. If I'm going to get up, they can bring the beer to me.
Good news about the flights, Jason. I'm betting they wish they could have done this yesterday.
Can I post the recon data too??!! Please!!!!
Joe in JAX
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
|
|
If you want to!
LOL...I'll hand it off ot Brad...he is more devoted to it than I!
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
|
|
lol--I swear I didn't see his till after I posted!
Actually, I won't be checking for an hour or so, so I was glad to see someone else was going to post....but now Jason's not going to. Joe, care to really do it?
I'm sure the data will find it's way on this board from at least 1 or 2 sources....
|
rmbjoe1954
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 420
Loc: Port Saint Lucie, Florida, USA 27.37N 80.24W
|
|
Can you confirm what the has been indicating today as far as the change to the W-NW, etc., from the data gathered from recon?
Thanks.
--------------------
________2013 Forecast: 16/8/4________
There is little chance that meteorologists can solve the mysteries of weather until they gain an understanding of the mutual attraction of rain and weekends. ~Arnot Sheppard
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
|
|
See, that's where you're wrong again. I don't parrot Bastardi. Sometimes I'll post an excerpt of what he says or what he throws out there, but I don't recall the last time we had the same forecast UNLESS I put out my thoughts first (e.g. Erika).
And to further prove that you're just fishin', he today said he couldn't make the call but is trending NC ^ to New England. That might ultimately be the case, but that's not the prediction I put out. But if you want to guess that I put a little more stock in what he says than what you say, that shouldn't be a shock. He's one of about 6 sources I utilize for the tropics. Apparently you do as well since you said you read him today (unless you are referring to the excerpt I posted).
As to last week, I said I thought you were underplaying the rainfall potential. But if you go back and read that very post, you will see where I credited your idea with the potential that Henri might just jump the state even though it kept firing off convection West of FL until it did. You had a good call on that one, but the potential was there (see NWS, TPC statements leading up to landfall).
I'm going to cut it off right here, because I'm not going to war you on a storm forum. I read your posts. Sometimes I get something out of them, and sometimes I discount them. I don't recall harping on you for grammar, though some did. If I did, then I apologize. But as far as going easy on me next time, give it up. Took a look at your site lately? Maybe there's a reason you have exactly 3 posts on your message board in the entire 2003 Hurricane Season. So if you want to get your point across, just don't be so cocky. You don't know it all, and I doubt very few people appreciate the tone of many of your posts.
Just the same, here's a virtual olive branch I'm going to extend your way. Naturally, you're free to do with it what you will  .
-----------------------------------------------
Here's another link to the Pentagram/star formation within Isabel in case anyone missed it:
Is(atanic)abel
And here's a link to the 5 convective complexes within the eye/eywall:
5 Convective Complexes
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
SandiaFlower
Unregistered
|
|
I guess I can unwind a little...............someone finally mentioned beer.....................can't wait to see the data!
|
wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
|
|
Not from one vortex message....we'd need at least one more to extrapolate a true motion vector.
--------------------
Jason Kelley
|
jth at work
Unregistered
|
|
wow that pressure 920......I wonder what it was at its strongest. Could have been down in the 900-910 range. Wish we could have verified exactly how strong she got. I'm not saying she was ever anywhere as strong as Gilbert, but she may have been in the top 5 all time at one point.
|
Rick in Moble
Unregistered
|
|
This short post is to remind everyone that when we throw info and stuff out, we aren't necessarily being serious.
let's spend less time whining about eachother's theories.
I enjoy this site, and sarcasm (comes from the greek word sarcosis, which means the tearing of human flesh) will only serve to restrain objective and insightful posts.
in other words....quit tearing others down....
now, for my projections...
dead west babeeeeeeeeee
|
SandiaFlower
Unregistered
|
|
Brad could someone sort of tell me what this means?
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
