Robbi
Unregistered
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Hi to all and LI Phil. I am also a long time lurker from Long Island. Always enjoyed everyone's opinions on this board and the professionalism of the posts and the administrators. (I also met Jim C. in Point Lookout on the west end of the beach there during the demise of Floyd, much shorter than he looks on tv!! ) I live in Wantagh and also cannot imagine the devastation that even a cat 2 or 3 could cause. Long Island is already overcrowded with people,cars, homes and and way too much complacency and its a very unsettling feeling to see the increasingly northward trend concensus with the models with the last few runs. Isabel is a formidable and powerful storm, truly beautiful to watch. But really scary with her potential.
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Jim M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
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Heh. All I can say is if Jim Cantore shows up in your backyard, run for the hills. 
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k___g
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
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Just a thought for us in Florida............Read the Tuesday/Wednesday forecast..........
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
THANKS TO N/NW SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND THE REMNANTS OF HENRI OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINAS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL BUT THE SE COAST...AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...MINS WILL
AGAIN FALL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME MVFR AVIATION
CONDITIONS LIKELY DUE TO PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
SAT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE JUST SLIGHTLY AS SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF HENRI LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
AND DISSIPATES. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...STILL UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH.
SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN TAKE PLACE AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
REMNANTS OF HENRI WILL GET ABSORBED INTO RIDGE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TRACKS EAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THIS RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...REINFORCING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW
AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
TUE-WED...WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING FROM GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL AFFECT
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SUPPRESSION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE
ISABEL WILL RESULT AS IT APPROACHES THE WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
WILL RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THU-FRI...MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE
ISABEL. THURSDAY MAY AGAIN BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS ISABEL MOVES
CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST. LATEST TPC FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL
TRACK TOWARDS THE WNW AND EVENTUALLY NW WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
UKMET. HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK. IN ADDITION...AS TPC NOTED...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST ISABEL TO GROW IN GEOGRAPHIC SIZE BEYOND 72 HR...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS
WELL OFFSHORE. DECENT OUTFLOW SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE GRIDDED AND
TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS. STAY TUNED.
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS REMNANTS OF HENRI
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. COMBINED SEAS...MAINLY GENERATED FROM SWELLS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SCA WILL REMAIN UP
NORTH OF COCOA BEACH FOR ROUGH SEAS...SCEC TO THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY TUESDAY AS ISABEL APPROACHES THE EAST
COAST.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 068/087 070/087 072 02131
MCO BB 069/089 072/089 073 02131
MLB BB 070/086 072/087 074 03231
VRB BB 070/087 072/087 073 03231
.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH.
$$
SHORT TERM...SPRATT
LONG TERM...HIRSCH
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met
Unregistered
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moving west. not much mention of bahamas they are in danger.
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StPeteGuy
Unregistered
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<< FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE FLORIDA >>
hmm.. does this mean the high on the coast will dominate on its way down and push Isabel west? I assume that is what you are getting at?
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hi Robbie, glad all you fellow Long Islanders are showing up here finally. Of course Long Island/NYC has a history with some big storms. The 1938 Long Island Express, Carol, Hazel-which still holds NYC's highest wind speed at 113 mph, Donna, Gloria, and others. Hopefully you won't see anything like them. Richie from South Florida or as they say N.Y.C's 6th Borough.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Earlier today, the satellite loops showed what I thought was the start of a jog to the north. Tonight, so far, back to dead west. Also, seems to be tightening and, while there is an elongation one often sees before a turn to the north, I am still not seeing the turn. Anybody think the models are going back to a left-leaning track tonight at 11?
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Jim M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
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Models still keep it moving west for another 12-18 hours. If it is still going due west this time tomorrow, I would be concerned; but there is still plenty of time for the turn to coccur right now.
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Yeah, I see now that the official forecast has a half degree turn to the north by 24 hours after 5 p.m. advisory. So, guess we have to wait and see what happens then.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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K----G, Orlando I read the Melbourne weather statement every day before work. I heard them say a week ago that the high was to stay in place and start building this weekend and be in place Tues/Weds. I Checked the WV loop and see really no deep trough setting in. Can someone tell me where to look on the WV loop to find this trough? Thanks
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met
Unregistered
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twc showed trof not coming real far south, i think at its slow speed . and how far south it is , and its so strong. that it may not feel the trof that much.
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lawgator
Unregistered
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what would that do? more westerly?
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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You know the problem Lawgator is that none of the none models are initializing right.The storm is heading W yet they all just about go WNW right off the bat.You could see it earlier this after noon when they put out the track of Isabel in with the projection and the actual is always lower.I do not doubt that this system will turn but this poor initialization makes the recurve happen in a lower lat.She is still moving W with slight jogs either way.
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deb
Unregistered
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Javlin, that's exactly what I was talking about. But, some of the other posters here (much more educated in these matters) correctly point out that the official forecast is very little north bend to it. I guess the graphics I keep seeing on and even on the tropical sites make it look like the WNW course is supposed ot be underway, but I dont see it yet either.
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deb
Unregistered
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I am wondering what the long term forcast is for cental florida as I am living there. I would like to know before I do my long term living here?
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Yeah, there may be a little time, but I look at it this way, if Isabel is forcast to increase her over all size in the next few days and she takes her good ole time making that turn, then the East Coast of Florida is going to feel her touch, even if she decides to take a tour further up the east coast. Still not totally convienced that she will make that turn. Tomorrow we will have more info for the models and it will be interesting to see how that pans out.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Deb, a ssomeone who has lived in Central florida for seven years, I can tell you the long LONG term forecast.
Hot. Humid. Yucky.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Take a look at this WV image:
UWisc WV Loop
On the left hand side, click on the 8 image loop, then "full disk", and water vapor at the bottom left. I think the main player for what happens to this storm is the low pressure system beginning to dive out of the canadian rockies. Where does this trough go, and what influence, if any does it have on Isabel?
On another note, just watch that loop for a few minutes. One word: chaotic.
I looked at that for 2 minutes and thought, this loop is why forecasting any storm is so very very difficult.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Jim Cantore on said this storm will go out to sea and not bother anyone. Why is he saying this???
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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