MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Isabel is still strong, models are still divergent, but we now have recon, so they may start to get better tomorrow.
The storm probably will fluctuate in intensity some and over the next day or two weaken a bit, depending on how far west it goes and if the ridge rebuilds far enough, it could restrengthen (probably not to cat 5 level, but still major) . Right now Isabel is just an awesome sight on the satellite photography.
My thnking of a more northernly motion later in the period still remains, but all the east coast From Florida to the northeast US needs to watch it. UKMET suggest near the Caroinas, and right now that's what I"m tending toward. This may include the Virginia Tidewater area too. This probably will change, we can't make up our minds for anything. Just keep watch.
And the plane is still in the cane. Recon will be observing this storm like crazy, not too often does a cat5 get in range of recon.
More will come as learned...
Think I'm wrong? See something I'm missing? You are probably right. Add a comment and we'll discuss.
Snonut has a Discussion out for today you may want to read
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Current Aircraft Recon Info
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 13 2003 09:44 AM)
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Bill
Unregistered
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Advisory is out---nothing new so far, continuation of same for now, maybe a slight shift to the right----3-5 days, no sig change. Great verification of satellite analysis!
IHS,
Bill
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jjmann
Unregistered
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WXMAN007 thank you for clearing that up about the ukmet/gragh at WREL , now we all will no not to judge that as the official UKMET MODEL ,is the AKA/ bracknell a worthy model?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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I'm not sure what they are posting there, so it might very well be the UKMET model output...that was just a hunch on my part.
The UKMET guys are pretty good, but aren't as experienced as ...I rarely ever look at the Bracknell product, but if you would like to...
Here is the last issued Bracknell guidance product, as an example.
743
WTNT80 EGRR 121754
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND NORTH ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.09.2003
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 12.3N 109.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2003 12.3N 109.8W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2003 12.4N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2003 13.1N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2003 17.7N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2003 18.2N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2003 18.9N 114.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2003 20.2N 115.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2003 22.2N 116.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2003 23.6N 117.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2003 22.8N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2003 22.3N 119.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2003 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
HURRICANE ISABEL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 57.4W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132003
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2003 21.8N 57.4W INTENSE
00UTC 13.09.2003 22.0N 59.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2003 22.8N 61.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2003 23.6N 63.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2003 24.0N 65.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2003 24.6N 67.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2003 24.7N 68.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2003 25.4N 70.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2003 25.4N 71.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2003 26.2N 73.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2003 27.2N 74.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2003 29.0N 75.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2003 31.6N 77.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 29.8N 46.8W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2003 29.8N 46.8W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2003 29.4N 47.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2003 28.9N 48.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2003 29.7N 49.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2003 31.1N 50.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2003 30.5N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2003 30.7N 55.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2003 31.2N 56.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK
Also, the Ensemble runs don't paint a pretty picture for NYC...
GFS/ECMWF Ensemble forecast for Isabel...12z
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Jason Kelley
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Satellite Image of the night click here to see it
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bob316
Unregistered
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jason looks like fla will be ok i gess the high will not be that strong may be a fish what do you see jason thanks
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jjmann
Unregistered
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Awesome picture, thanks Mike C iam going to get that one blown up poster size!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hello to all. First time poster, LOOOOONG time reader. Been learning from you all since 1999; feel like I know some of you. Told myself I would only post if there were a storm near Long Island...been thru Gloria in '85 (power out for a week), near miss with Bob in '91 and Floyd '99, so I've not experienced any "big" ones (and hope I never do). I know NO ONE for sure knows where Isabel will go, but this one is beginning to scare me. SOMEONE is going to get hit, and probably pretty hard. When I saw a recent model, sohwing an 888 milibar storm on top of NYC (about 30 miles due west from me), well, it gave me pause. I'll post a link to it at another time, but a strong CAT 2 or weak CAT 3 would cause catastrophic (probably a bad choice of words) damage if it were to hit just west of NYC. Lower Manhattan would be completely under water, all the subways would be flooded, and being on LI myself, would mean evac would have to start days before...which couldn't happen because we wouldn't have two days to prepare.
OK, enough babbling. Hope no one gets hit. It's been a pleasure reading and learning from all you guys the past four years.
Oh, one more thing...when Floyd did come here (barely a TS by then), Jim Cantore was down at Point Lookout (right next to Jones Beach), and I got to meet him. That for me was bigger than meeting the president.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hi Phil,
Welcome to the board. I have been waiting for a fellow Long Islander to finally post at this board. I spent 30 years in Baldwin and was there for Belle, David, Frederic and Gloria. I had no power for 7 days from Gloria. What town are you in? We here in Florida are much better prepared for the big one than the people in the northeast. No one I knew had any kind of shutters. Hope it stays away from you guys too and hope your a Yankees fan! 
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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MikeC
Admin
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2798
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
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Welcome Phil,
Because of a few models and the possibility for effects up that way, I've put up forecast discussions for pretty much the entire East coast from New York to Key West on the main page.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Major wobble to the North in the last frame, lets see if it continues. I'm sure glad Fla is out of the woods, to much of a cane for me to deal with.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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florida isn't out of the woods. recent model runs may suggest that, but don't get too cozy until it passes your latitude.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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mines 28.3N 80.3W, just a wobble and back on a west track.
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Too early to call this over in central florida. Don't turn off the radio this weekend!!!
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Also heard on the radio today, that the whole East Coast has a shortage of plywood. Prices could triple if she hits land.
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Bill
Unregistered
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Fl NOT out of the woods...no location is yet...stay tuned
I think everyone should remember---'originally', the storm was forecast to move wnw to nw for a while---we should not think when that happens we are 'out of the woods', because the other shoe could drop---at the end of that early forecast period, the high was supposed to build back in and turn Isabel back to the west.
This could still happen....beyond 120 hrs...or before...so, no one is out of the woods until it is past your latitude or has clearly turned away...neither of which has happened for anyone on the Fl east coast---or east coast, period, as of yet.
IHS,
Bill
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Bill
Unregistered
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LOL--HF, posted mine before I read yours.
IHS,
Bill
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Amen to that! I still expect a turn but I won't dismiss a FL strike yet. Waiting for the 00Z runs now.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Bill - - how do you keep doing that?????
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mp3reed
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 16
Loc: Abilene, Texas USA 32.41N 99.77W
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My guess is Hur5Isabella hits North Carolina. Cape Hatteras area. Hope ya'll have insurance.
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Stuart Dave
Unregistered
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Why all the doom and gloom with predictions of massive deaths from a cat 5?I believe one recently hit in the far east where they have no building codes and very few people died. Also in Bermuda I believe there were only 4 deaths there for a cat 3. The press/media needs this to sell its product.This storm should cure me forever from following all the hype and watching satellite pictures every few minutes for the big move to happen.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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I did get hotel reservations taken care of.........so we will have a place to go in case she dials our number......more and more it seems that EC FL is a baaaaaaaaaaaad place to be.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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There is still one FL scenario that I am concerned about at this point, That is a reverse-S type path, where Isabel moves west, then curves to NW or N, and then bends back to the west a la Erin in '95. This scenario would have to still be plausible with the High, trough, high set up that is expected over the next 7-10 days. HankFrank, is this your N. FL scenario??
PS- I would like to point out in my most cocky type that my first post on the last thread stated that this would be 'the most significant threat to the US...' while everyone was saying fish spinner. That now makes me 2 for 347 while posting about hurricanes, so move over all you pros! 
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Have you ever been in...say a Cat 3 storm? I am not sure where the gloom & doom & death things you are speaking of came from but I think the "hype" may be to prepare a lot of complacent people who go season after season without a close call. Main statement I think is " pay attention".
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Floridacane
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 110
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Correct me if I'm wrong but the graphics show a wnw movement to start early tomorrow. Am I correct, or the wnw movement supposed to start later than that?
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What's brewin' everyone?
Lori
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I am not sure if this was posted before...When will the data found today be included in the model runs? Also, are the planes still there?
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wxman007
Meteorologist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
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Today's data will make it into the 00Z runs...not as good as the G-4 data, but not bad either.
Currently there is no recon in Isabel.
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Jason Kelley
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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The official track begins a slight turn say wnw at about 24 hrs and in time a little more pronounced each fix thereafter. The official track as of now keeps FL clear....but!
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Steve-unplugged
Unregistered
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Hey Phil,
Welcome to the posting realm. I think Long Island should see some effects, but it's debatable as to what those effects might be. The last run I saw had a pretty potent storm up over your area, though I'm not sure it verifies. My thinking (if my landfall prediction is right), is that there should be some room for essentially a northern inland component (NW-NNE) along the Mid-Atlantic. No doubt Long Island and the Capes of MS have as good a shot as anyone. If you don't see jack, it should be excellent for surfing anyway.
Good luck with it.
Steve
PS - I'm outta here til Monday. Idiotic Cox Cable can't set up my internet or cable this weekend, so I'm down until Monday at work. if I don't get back on until then, y'all have a good weekend.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Looks like she's coming down a bit off that cat 5 high she's been riding. Last couple of loops show some warming of the cloud tops and some restriction of the outflow.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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>>>>That now makes me 2 for 347 while posting about hurricanes, so move over all you pros!>>>>>
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ROFLOL, Clyde! You rock, dude!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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WXMAN RICHIE...
I live in Garden City (Thankfully, about 9 miles from the coast) so I'm not really worried about my property, per se. Hopefully all we see are some BIG waves. I'm more concerned about a hit just west of NYC. There are 6+million living on Manhattan Island alone, plus another 4+ million in Kings (Brooklyn), Queens, Nassau and Suffolk. I guess we'll have to REALLY worry come Tuesday or so. Till then...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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You and the others in NYC do not need this insult to injury. If I had my way, I would send it back over the atlantic and then up to Greenland where it would cool so much that it would not amount to anything more than a bit of wind.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I'm sorry, but I had to change the subject title.
Anyway, my sister called me from Atlanta on her way home from work and asked me when was I planning to evacuate. Then my mother called. Then Brother 1 called, followed by Brother 2. Apparantly, Hurricane IsaHell is a very hot topic on the nightly news with Tom BrokenJaw, Dan Blather and Peter Jeningless.
How did I come to this conclusion? Easy. All 3 anchors are predicting death and destruction from IsaHell and because like a Cuban refugee, Florida is the first actual US STATE that she will see, they are hyping that to no end. Dan: all I can say is "FIND THAT SLICKER BABY BECAUSE YOU ARE GONNA NEED IT!"
Did I mention that the highschool is right across the street from my subdivision? Oh, yes it is. The marching band sounds great, and if you listen very closely you can hear the quarterback calling the plays. 
On a more serious note: PLEASE do not say that Florida is out of the woods until Isabel passes us COMPLETELY. There would be nothing worse than a person who came here, or to any other site, read a comment posted here stating that Florida is out of the woods only to awaken 4 days later to the sound of IsaHell pounding on their doorstep. It's not over until the fat lady sings. Hopefully she's warming up.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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This is only a suggestion but one that comes from the experience of watching a monster storm: take a break from it for a while. Remember that right now, this minute everything is okay.
There is enough time to prepare (and those of us who follow hurricanes should be prepared anyway) to leave our homes and go to a safe place, even if it doesn't pan out.
That's good news. Preparing for the worst and getting the best. This might be a wake up call, could be the real thing but we don't know yet and to keep watching satellite loops for the next 900 hours is not going to change the outcome anyway.
Go relax, have a beer or a glass of wine; watch a movie, enjoy your friends and family. That's all any of us really have, isn't it?
(I'm normally not this calm). 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Hey Sue a/k/a SandiaFlower
Been to the land of Enchantment 3 or 4 times (twice for the weddings of a friend); beautiful country. Each time, its been too windy to take the Tram to the top of the mountain. And that was just 25+ MPH. Just imagine what 160+ feels like.
Back on topic...I wish everyone living in FL all the best. Been there 3 or 4 times too...first was (gasp) Disney, but more recently Ft. Lauderdale & Panama City (where, of course, I made my wife watch the news for Jason's weather forcast). She was like "what is wrong with you." All you weather watchers get it, of course. And I will be back in your beautiful state in October, for a "sprint triathlon" in Pembroke Pines. Hopefully it's quiet then.
Learned that "alll y'all" is plural and "y'all" is just singular. Beautiful.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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LI Phil, new runs look better for FL but you keep watching! All EC really and the 98E is stuck on the dive SW.
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
Edited by Storm Cooper (Fri Sep 12 2003 08:36 PM)
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HURRICANE EYE
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 10
Loc: ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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....
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Colleen--you're killing me! Dan Blather, Tom Brokinjaw! LOL! I live right next to a high school as well- and if the wind is right on a Friday night I can listen to the play by play from the game announcer. I just hope and pray that we aren't listening to coastal refugees this time next week.
Can someone please tell me why they even run the A98E?? Fresh off its pillage and destruction of the coca fields of Colombia, it now has Isabel playing an innocent game of hopscotch east of the Turks and Caicos. I'm sorry, is this a hurricane model, or the actual track of McHale's navy??
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HURRICANE EYE
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 10
Loc: ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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Ive been reading the posts here since before floyd , and also post comments as well, so i figured it was time to step up and be noticed, great site, so lets rock-n-roll!
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Robbi
Unregistered
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Hi to all and LI Phil. I am also a long time lurker from Long Island. Always enjoyed everyone's opinions on this board and the professionalism of the posts and the administrators. (I also met Jim C. in Point Lookout on the west end of the beach there during the demise of Floyd, much shorter than he looks on tv!! ) I live in Wantagh and also cannot imagine the devastation that even a cat 2 or 3 could cause. Long Island is already overcrowded with people,cars, homes and and way too much complacency and its a very unsettling feeling to see the increasingly northward trend concensus with the models with the last few runs. Isabel is a formidable and powerful storm, truly beautiful to watch. But really scary with her potential.
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Jim M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
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Heh. All I can say is if Jim Cantore shows up in your backyard, run for the hills. 
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k___g
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
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Just a thought for us in Florida............Read the Tuesday/Wednesday forecast..........
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003
.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE
THANKS TO N/NW SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND THE REMNANTS OF HENRI OFFSHORE
THE CAROLINAS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL BUT THE SE COAST...AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING...MINS WILL
AGAIN FALL INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. SOME MVFR AVIATION
CONDITIONS LIKELY DUE TO PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
SAT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE JUST SLIGHTLY AS SURFACE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF HENRI LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
AND DISSIPATES. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...STILL UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH.
SUN-MON...WIDESPREAD INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN TAKE PLACE AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
REMNANTS OF HENRI WILL GET ABSORBED INTO RIDGE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TRACKS EAST INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THIS RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR
OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...REINFORCING THE LIGHT SYNOPTIC FLOW
AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.
TUE-WED...WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING FROM GREAT PLAINS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL AFFECT
THE AREA. ADDITIONAL SUPPRESSION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE
ISABEL WILL RESULT AS IT APPROACHES THE WATERS NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
WILL RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
THU-FRI...MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF HURRICANE
ISABEL. THURSDAY MAY AGAIN BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS ISABEL MOVES
CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST. LATEST TPC FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL
TRACK TOWARDS THE WNW AND EVENTUALLY NW WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
UKMET. HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TRACK. IN ADDITION...AS TPC NOTED...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL
FORECAST ISABEL TO GROW IN GEOGRAPHIC SIZE BEYOND 72 HR...WHICH MAY
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS MID-LATE WEEK EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS
WELL OFFSHORE. DECENT OUTFLOW SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE GRIDDED AND
TEXT FORECAST PRODUCTS. STAY TUNED.
.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS REMNANTS OF HENRI
MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. COMBINED SEAS...MAINLY GENERATED FROM SWELLS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SCA WILL REMAIN UP
NORTH OF COCOA BEACH FOR ROUGH SEAS...SCEC TO THE SOUTH. SIGNIFICANT
SWELLS WILL LIKELY RETURN BY TUESDAY AS ISABEL APPROACHES THE EAST
COAST.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 068/087 070/087 072 02131
MCO BB 069/089 072/089 073 02131
MLB BB 070/086 072/087 074 03231
VRB BB 070/087 072/087 073 03231
.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS
FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH.
$$
SHORT TERM...SPRATT
LONG TERM...HIRSCH
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met
Unregistered
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moving west. not much mention of bahamas they are in danger.
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StPeteGuy
Unregistered
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<< FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS INTO THE FLORIDA >>
hmm.. does this mean the high on the coast will dominate on its way down and push Isabel west? I assume that is what you are getting at?
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Hi Robbie, glad all you fellow Long Islanders are showing up here finally. Of course Long Island/NYC has a history with some big storms. The 1938 Long Island Express, Carol, Hazel-which still holds NYC's highest wind speed at 113 mph, Donna, Gloria, and others. Hopefully you won't see anything like them. Richie from South Florida or as they say N.Y.C's 6th Borough.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Earlier today, the satellite loops showed what I thought was the start of a jog to the north. Tonight, so far, back to dead west. Also, seems to be tightening and, while there is an elongation one often sees before a turn to the north, I am still not seeing the turn. Anybody think the models are going back to a left-leaning track tonight at 11?
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Jim M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
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Models still keep it moving west for another 12-18 hours. If it is still going due west this time tomorrow, I would be concerned; but there is still plenty of time for the turn to coccur right now.
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Yeah, I see now that the official forecast has a half degree turn to the north by 24 hours after 5 p.m. advisory. So, guess we have to wait and see what happens then.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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K----G, Orlando I read the Melbourne weather statement every day before work. I heard them say a week ago that the high was to stay in place and start building this weekend and be in place Tues/Weds. I Checked the WV loop and see really no deep trough setting in. Can someone tell me where to look on the WV loop to find this trough? Thanks
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met
Unregistered
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twc showed trof not coming real far south, i think at its slow speed . and how far south it is , and its so strong. that it may not feel the trof that much.
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lawgator
Unregistered
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what would that do? more westerly?
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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You know the problem Lawgator is that none of the none models are initializing right.The storm is heading W yet they all just about go WNW right off the bat.You could see it earlier this after noon when they put out the track of Isabel in with the projection and the actual is always lower.I do not doubt that this system will turn but this poor initialization makes the recurve happen in a lower lat.She is still moving W with slight jogs either way.
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deb
Unregistered
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Javlin, that's exactly what I was talking about. But, some of the other posters here (much more educated in these matters) correctly point out that the official forecast is very little north bend to it. I guess the graphics I keep seeing on and even on the tropical sites make it look like the WNW course is supposed ot be underway, but I dont see it yet either.
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deb
Unregistered
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I am wondering what the long term forcast is for cental florida as I am living there. I would like to know before I do my long term living here?
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Yeah, there may be a little time, but I look at it this way, if Isabel is forcast to increase her over all size in the next few days and she takes her good ole time making that turn, then the East Coast of Florida is going to feel her touch, even if she decides to take a tour further up the east coast. Still not totally convienced that she will make that turn. Tomorrow we will have more info for the models and it will be interesting to see how that pans out.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Deb, a ssomeone who has lived in Central florida for seven years, I can tell you the long LONG term forecast.
Hot. Humid. Yucky.
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Take a look at this WV image:
UWisc WV Loop
On the left hand side, click on the 8 image loop, then "full disk", and water vapor at the bottom left. I think the main player for what happens to this storm is the low pressure system beginning to dive out of the canadian rockies. Where does this trough go, and what influence, if any does it have on Isabel?
On another note, just watch that loop for a few minutes. One word: chaotic.
I looked at that for 2 minutes and thought, this loop is why forecasting any storm is so very very difficult.
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Jim Cantore on said this storm will go out to sea and not bother anyone. Why is he saying this???
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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joepub1a
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
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lawgator, your alright in my book. I was having a hard time with that question  and you managed a fairly nice (and true) responce. I'll stop laughing sometime in the long-term.
If Jim Cantore said it's a fish, then his girlfriend goes by the initials .
He was killing South Florida with it two days ago. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Just not sure where yet....
Joe in JAX
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Well, first because folks always want to be out front to seem to be in the know. I call this "Geraldo Disease." He may be right and if he his he gets credit. If not, no one remembers five-seven days from now.
P.S. Lived in Florida ll my life. You and I both know the Dolphins are perpetually doomed to 8-8, 9-7, maybe 10-6 and a first round loss at best.
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joepub1a
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
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The has bought into a pretty tight turn. I'm a little surprised, but they were very sure about Fabian. I guess the low that develops over the Carolina's punches a hole in the ridge. I'm having a hard time seeing that happen, esp. if Isa doesn't start getting on north pretty soon. She's gone from 50W to 60W and hasn't gone up but something like .6 . But they very much took Fla/Ga out of their picture.
Joe in JAX
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Nice loop of but why can't these progrmmer of these models go "well it's been going W for 24hrs now let's set it for another 12 like that then start or program ".At least it makes there program look more authentic.If it stays low that second front might not be able to do it .Could be is banking on that weaking an Isabel is not in as much control,she starts going with the flow
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Alex
Unregistered
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If isabel, in my opinion, gets to around 74 west(which is still days away) it will become the meteorological equivalent of a siege. There is a certain line that if it crosses, it will hit land. No one is sure where that line is
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2107
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Catching up on a lot of reading after another long day at work. It always amazes me that management realizes that they have a weatherman in the place when somebody says the magic words "Cat V" (just kidding boss ).
Brain is too mushy for words of wisdom tonight - it needs some real sleep - except for this: good responses regarding Florida - not out of the woods yet and a long way to go. I'm still worried about the ridge building into the southeast - bad memories called Andrew and Dora. Isabel may even stay out to sea if the turn starts soon - but thats a real long shot at the moment.
Mike that was an awesome photo - a real classic!
When someone at work today asked THE question, it was devilish fun to answer "Anywhere it wants to!"
I'll post some comments in the Storm Forum tomorrow about why we all missed the first Challenge (except Coop didn't do too badly).
Jim C. met me once (actually twice - his boss is a good friend). The late John Hope and I were chatting and Jim walked up so John did the introductions - but I'm not so sure that it was a real 'biggie' for him Jim is a great guy - real 'down to earth'.
Sometimes we drifted a little today, but we probably needed it - lets try to stay on topic over the weekend.
Cheers,
ED
(347 and 2 - and I get shoved to the back seat - this is sure one tough group )
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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JaxJoe I hope you enjoyed your steak and brews. I am beginning to think we are in for a ride....watching the news and everything else. I was hoping to be broken in by something more on the Cat 1 side.................as my first hurricane. This is like putting a first grader in a trig class.
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joepub1a
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
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SandiaFlower- The steaks and brew were a very good Cat3 on the food scale.
Geez, this forecast bothers me. High in place now. WEAK cold front comes down, then just falls apart. High builds back in from the east and west. New cold front very late next week, how strong nobody knows. So we hang our hat on mid-upper level low that hasn't developed yet, that's a thousand plus miles away. Heck of a way to make a living, isn't it? For tonight, count me in as a non-believer. Which means the has about a 95% chance of being right.
Joe in JAX
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Still no hint of a wnw or nw turn, she's on a beeline west towards the bahamas. Don't feel the 1st trough (trof) will pick it up to make any significant northward movement, maybe the following trough later next week. Feel it will be a close call, northern bahamas and EC Fla, swinging up the coast thereafter.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Looking at the latest 's forecast map Isabel shows a pronounced WNW projected motion when it gets to 60W... Using the latest IR GOES sat pix, which is about an hour old, I have the center at 21.87N and 59.58W, so it can be assumed at its present rate of speed it should be at 60W in 2-3 hours.... then per the the WNW track kicks in.... if you get up in the morning and it still moving W or just north of due west.... throw out the models baby.... she starts that WNW track after midnight then the has this thing by the ...... oh, its a female... excuseeeeeeeee me.... hehe
I think what transpires during the next 6 hours will be one of the first critical moments in the projected track... something to watch for carefully and to see if it comes to fruition.... IMO
I don't think I'd bet against the right now.... but they've been wrong before
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Is there a slight jog to the south with IsaHell? I've been watching the loops and it may just be a wobble but it kind of looks like this:
~~------~~-------~~-----~~-->(heading west, towards FL)
Okay, maybe that's not going to win me an Oscar for Best Animation of A Killer Hurricane, but work with me here, okay? I swear that I do not see a northern component to this storm ANYWHERE. And she's further west than they predicted, which has me worried.
Now let's move on to Jim Cantore. When did he say this was gonna be a "fishspinner"? Cuz I just watched him and he must have changed his tune or he's using one of his other personalities. However, in the event that he DOES show up in YOUR backyard, I'm with them----leave town ASAP.
I remember when the had Andrew hitting Jacksonville Beach, which was where I was living at the time, and I went to Publix to get "stuff". I didn't know what kind of "stuff" I was suppossed to be getting, but I was getting it anyway. I just followed people up and down the aisles. If they put a can of tuna fish in their basket, one went in mine. You get the picture. Anyway, when I came outside, there was a reporter from NBC News (I think he was the one who died in Iraq). They turned the big lights on (totally uneccessary in MOHO) and then he asked me what I thought about Andrew and if was I worried about a possible CAT4 Hurricane hitting my home town. Can you say DUH? Anyway, I answered him and I said, "That has to be one of the stupidest questions anyone has ever asked me. (deer in the headlights look) YOU are asking ME if I am WORRIED about a CATEGORY 4 knocking out my town? OF COURSE I'M WORRIED! I just spent $250 on tuna fish and water. I'm worried that my husband is going to kill me."
Unfortunately, it made the 6:30 NBC Nightly News with Tom Brokenjaw who quipped, "And this is what one young lady in Jacksonville, Florida told our reporter about Andrew hitting her town".
To say the least, I was mortified. And I'm still using the stupid tuna fish.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Thanks for the mention Ed! I have put about 2 years into the "Cooper". Since the challange I have not put any more wx info into it to really see how it would perform...not too bad as models go! Next stop... challange II. Cooper may blow this one big time 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Wxwatcher2
Unregistered
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As long as you like Tuna Colleen, I guess its ok...
I'm with you on not seeing the Northerly turn but the thing that the has in it's favor is that the storm is moving fairly slowly so they have more time and in effect room for error in when the turn takes place. I look at the models and like many have said, the models assume a WNW direction from the start and that is just not what is happening as of yet.
Bottom line is it is still only at 60 West.
Interested in where Isabel will be Sunday night at this time.
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joepub1a
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
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Right on the money, FrankP. This is the first benchmark to pin these models(and the ) to. The margin for error starts to narrow at 60W. Alot of strange things have happened from this point on, and this setup is very flimsy. Still, like I said earlier, I'll give the a pretty high chance of being right but I'm not a believer just yet.
Joe in JAX
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Great story Colleen.... I got my 15 seconds of fame last year on local TV....
after Isadora hit, and I was interviewed by the local news channel... they saw me on the beach the day after and asked me what I was doing on the beach and what I did during the storm.. I told them during the storm that I watched the very high tidal surge come in during the night sitting in a lawn chair in my front yard,and how amazing it was watching that hugh pier being tossed about in the surf like toothpicks...... made some comments about how high the tide was and water lapping over the sea wall... highest in this area since Camille... yada yada yada....
I didn't tell em the real reason why I was on the beach... collecting some of the brand new colliseum pier planks that had wash up in front of my house during the storm... about a 100 foot section of the pier was just off the seawall... got enough to maybe build me a shoo fly around one of my oak trees in the front yard, and dedicate it to Izzy.... hehe....
Next day they started arresting people for picking up debris off the beach.... then they destroyed everything ... man I bet I saw ten thousand dollars of worth of treated wood destroyed in front of my house... sad, they should have just given it away to those who wanted it...
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SirCane
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 248
Loc: Pensacola, FL
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Really, I don't believe anyone can rule out an Andrew or Georges like scenerio where Isabel makes 2 landfalls. One on the East coast and one on the Gulf coast.
And remember how UNPREDICTABLE Mitch was. He did the unexpected as a CAT 5.
Next week is going to be interesting indeed.
Hope she makes the turn out to sea, but it doesn't look good.
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Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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Joe just when does it become too late for that desired right turn?
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recmod
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
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>>>>>Is there a slight jog to the south with IsaHell? I've been watching the loops and it may just be a wobble but it kind of looks like this:
~~------~~-------~~-----~~-->(heading west, towards FL) <<<<<
Colleen....watching the latest IR loop, I have to agree. I definitely see the storm dipping slightly SOUTH of west the past few hours. Too early yet to say if this is a longterm trend or another (rather extended) wobble. In any case, I think she's already starting out south of where the model runs have initialized.
Lou
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Another 24 hours of this due westward movement and i'll be concerned about Fla. again. Think the models may start correcting themselves towards the left tomorrow. Also she may be in a temporary weakening trend, doubt that she's a cat 5 now.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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Kimster
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sun
Posts: 77
Loc: Dunedin, FL
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Edited (off-topic)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 13 2003 06:32 AM)
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Hey, these things can turn right at the last minute... I don't know how many times in the past we've had hurricanes coming dead on to MS, then turn right to the panhandle or left over to louisiana at the last minute.... it could very well get on that WNW forecast as projected by the ... but the next 6-12 hours might be very interesting if it doesn't...
shoot, sometimes they come right at ya, you evacuate, they make a big right turn, everythings fine and safe, they sit around for a while, then they come right back at ya, and you have to evacuate for the second time, for the same storm... Elena 85....
all I was referring to was whenever there appears to be this much uncertainty with a system, the more it goes off in a direction it is not supposed to go, the more uncertain it becomes down the road...
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Frank or anyone...do you see that puff of cloud shooting north from the Domin. Republic on this loop? Could that be a part of the wind pattern that will cause the storm to move in a more northerly direction?
IR Loop
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Lisa NC
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 102
Loc: North Carolina
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To me it looks like its just the eye shrinking, not really a jog to the south. I saw that too but watched it a couple of times and with the eye and over all size shrinking, it made sense.
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joepub1a
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
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SandiaFlower- It's never too late until it touches land.
But like I said earlier, strange things happen from this point on. Isa, without some type of northern jump, could easily find herself in a spot where she's gonna hit somebody, anywhere from Norfolk south to the Keys. She's getting alot of pressure put on her from above and behind her, which if anything should keep her due west. Almost no outflow to the north and east, at least compared to what is was at it's peak. This ridge has been a rock since 50W, and no signs of giving way yet. Anyway, back to your question..... anything beyond 75W is more than likely bad to real bad news. It can be very hard to extract a storm without it brushing up against somebody from that point in. But it does happen. I think Isa needs to be above 25N when she passes 70W for the forecast to pan out. If she's 23-24N she could go far enough west to clip somebody.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Justin, I tried to look at that loop and it hung up my puter and had to reboot... that far south I would guess it is probably wind shear blowing off the tops of the storms.... go take a loop at the WV loop that might clear it up... that's what I'm going to do now... if my no good for nothing puter doesn't lock up again...
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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My guess is that it could be a sign of the general flow that will eventually send her more WNW...obviously not as shown in the models...i think you are right...The Turn is the next major step in the forecast. Here is the link to the WV loop. I am no expert at explaining these features
Water Vapor Loop
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Justin, what I saw on the water loop was not very impressive in that area... from what I saw on the WV loop, which by the way was an hour old, so I don't know if it was as up to date as your IR loop... on the east part of the island the winds aloft were basically weak pushing the tops of the storms to the SSE ( thus winds out of the NNW) on the west part of the island I really didn't see all that much shear on the WV loop... so, from what I saw, and mind you, it might not have been the same as what you saw... nothing down there in that area IMO is going to contribute to that northerly component in the immediate future...
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I just looked at that loop and she is not going north or anywhere NEAR north. I think the southern jog I saw was the "eye" but it's hard to tell. (Can't remember who said that, sorry!) She looks as if she's just about to cross 60W, too. The farther west she goes ups the strike possibility and even if she is only 50-100 miles off the coast, we're still going to feel it if/when she makes that turn. Right now, I just don't see a turn coming tonight for a couple of reasons: 1) She hasn't even looked north yet and 2) She's moving at about 9mph and although that won't get her a speeding ticket, I would think that in order for her to turn wnw, she'd have to slow down her momentum and she hasn't done that yet.
Hmmmm. 
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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lawgator
Unregistered
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Someone said UKMET had it coming in around Melbourne, which is bad for me in Winter Park (E Orlando)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 13 2003 06:33 AM)
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Recon is out in Isabel again...
Lowest pressure they've found in the vortex data message is 935mb; max flight level winds are 100kt, though they are still early in the flight. Needless to say, Isabel is not a cat5 storm at this point, and is probably a middle-to-high end cat4 right now.
Also of note are the concentric eyewalls of 25 and 35 nm.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
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SLOOOOW movement from 72-120 hours (also less slow from 48-72), and none has her north of 24.9 at 120 hours (or west of 74.3). These models are going to be bouncing around for another day or two; certainly don't expect consistency from the tropicals for a while.
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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The eye seems to be rotating around the center. Showed an earlier south motion and now a NW shift. The mass of the storm continues to enlarge and shows the ventilation NW to SW. No further conclusions yet until a shift to the NW is established.
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Go Boilermakers
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JØLT
Registered User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1
Loc: CLEARWATER, FL
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GOOD MORNING TV LAND, THIS IS MY FIRST TIME POSTING ON THIS BOARD I SEEM TO READ HOURLY. AS FAR AS WEATHER I AM NOT AS EXPERIENCED AS THE REAT OF YOU, BUT I AM STILL LEARNING, JUST GOTTA LOVE STORMS. MY BUDDY FRED AT WORK SEEMS TO THINK THAT ISAHELL ISNT EVEN COMING CLOSE TO THE STATE OF FLORIDA, AND ALL I KNOW IS THAT 1. FLORIDA HAS DODGED THE BULLET SO MANY TIMES BEFORE...AND I THINK WE ARE A BIT "DUE", AND 2. I HAVENT YET SEEN THIS STORM START TO HEAD NORTH LIKE EVERYONE IS SAYING IT WILL DO. HERE IT IS 3AM AND STILL DEAD WEST AT 9MPH. MY GUT SAYS SHE WILL STRAY NORTHERLY RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME SHE GETS INTO THE GULFSTREAM AND JUST RAKE RIGHT UP THE COAST, AND OF COURSE THATS THE LAST THING I WOULD LIKE TO SEE, BUT I HAVENT SEEN ANYTHING THAT TELLS ME THAT SHE'LL TURN NORTH ANY SOONER...BESIDES TRYING TO PREDICT THE WEATHER IS LIKE TRYING TO PREDICT THE WINNING LOTTERY NUMBERS. WELL I AM RAMBLING. SORRY SO LONG, JUST NEED TO GET OFF TO BED AND SEE WHAT TOMORROW BRINGS
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Surprisingly still a Cat 5....
URNT12 KNHC 130649
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/0649Z
B. 21 DEG 57 MIN N
60 DEG 12 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2530 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 043 DEG 124 KT
G. 307 DEG 031 NM
H. 936 MB
I. 11 C/ 3102 M
J. 15 C/ 3088 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. CO25-35
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/2.0 NM
P. AF866 0213A ISABEL OB 10
MAX FL WIND 139 KT NE QUAD 0513Z.
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Stuart Dave
Unregistered
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Have to hand it to the this Hurricane is following their track perfectly and therefore Florida should be in the clear. With all the resources at their disposal they by far should have the best idea where this hurricane is going.Compare the track and the satellite picture of the eye and you will see their perfection .
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PFSThunder
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 38
Loc: Charleston, SC
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The latest discussion makes no sense. First, the storm is moving west 280 degrees. The high is building west with the movement. The models expect a WNW to NW move (hasn't moved from west yet). Then a strange note "THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA". Seems like too much reliance on the models. Don't bother buying bottled water in Florida. Enjoy your week-end. Not buying the forecast til it passes 30 N.
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Go Boilermakers
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Domino
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
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Call me stupid....I didn't think to translate flight level winds into surface..oops...
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met
Unregistered
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twc just said high is building west . this storm is moving west and bahamas are in danger then fla.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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She seems to be making that WNW or NW turn now.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SUN AND MON SHOULD SEE INCREASES IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE LOW
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS...EX TD HENRI...GETS ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC START BUILDS ACROSS FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND MERGES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. WITH A LIGHT WIND
REGIME SEA BREEZES SHOULD SET UP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND PUSH INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WEAK COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER LATE NIGHT COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWERS OVER
THE MARINE ZONES AND FROM THE CAPE SOUTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
REGIONS. WILL KEEP POPS 30 PERCENT OR LOWER FOR THE FORECAST.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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From Isabel Discussion #29:
NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA.
Sounds good to me and FL.
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Jara
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Isabel is intensifying again. Interesting note. The globals seem to turn Isabel sooner; the tropical models have swung leeeft...if you believe them....none of which have her crossing 25 N. Cheers
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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well, guess I jumped the gun again, still going west.
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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check again folks..right on schedul and now heading wnw and that may be generous..nw looks even better..florida is out of the woods..officially by me..hehe
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Coop, hurry and get that model loaded with all this new info. This is too cool! Congratulations on how well you done with the challenge looks like The Cooper came thru for ya.
Now inquiring minds want to know.... Maybe I am just missing something here but per , if we have a trough that is eroding and a ridge that is building, but yet a forcast that is going to take Isabel North, then I don't get it. Yeah, I can see a slight turn to the north as the process of all of this is happening, but I would think that after the ridge builds in she would stay on a w to wnw course. Taking any and all thoughts here. We must find that weakest link here guys!!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
Edited by 57497479 (Sat Sep 13 2003 07:17 AM)
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HURRICANE EYE
Verified CFHC User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 10
Loc: ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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Iam curious to hear what you all think your gut feeling track that isabel will take is? so far most of the models take it towards the north,and someone here said that some of the latest are trending back to the left, i myself that is ,dont see how she will continue nw when and if she makes that turn.the /avn 48hr model shows high pressure building in over her and compressing against the high building in the west,so how could she continue nw/n in the long run, maybe its a timing thing, she goes nw than north slows down from compressing of a building ridge then shifts back to the west ,but at what point will she be ? anyway just curious to hear from all the knowledgable folks on here.
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Hurric
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 114
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl 27.32N 80.35W
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It was said here last weekend (FrankP i think) that this would be the week to watch this storm and enjoy it. It has been an awesome storm to watch thus far and has certianly gained quiet an audince. Well it's now crossed 60 W and still moving to the west.
Like a rookie going into the NFL Isabel has entered the arena with an impressive background and now ready to play serious game with someone. With recon and what hopefully will be improved consistency in the models it's getting closer to a time when reasonable speculation and forcasting by the Professionals will start to replace some of the hype that the mention of Cat 5 seems to bring out in the media.
On a historical note Isabel is now crossing over the path of Andrew who at this point was moving NW as a weak 40 MPH Tropical Storm that was expected to wither or go fishing.
I am going to sit back on the east coast of Florida and watch. This week wont be nearly as much fun to watch as the past one with things getting more serious each day. Keep the post coming and my best wishes and luck to all those who in the end really do have to deal with Isabel.
Oh, and my call on Isabel at this point, anyplace from The Florida Keys to out to sea.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Still quite worried up here on Long Island...Florida looks better and better. May even miss (a direct hit) on the Bahamas. Just to ASSURE it misses me, I will predict a brush with Cape Hattaras and then a Long Island hit. There, now that I've said it, it won't happen...right?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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Looks like Isabel is speeding upnow at about 12.5 mph.Took the 11:15 UTC position as 22.2N and 61W.Figured on three hours movement.General direction seems to be about 282 degrees. Just looked at the last frame on the goes WV looks like she hit the ceiling again,maybe she's stair stepping for awhile.
Edited by javlin (Sat Sep 13 2003 08:13 AM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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If you are to believe 's Steve Lyons, he basically guarantees So. Fla. to be out of the woods, but anything from Central Florida north is still in play. Isabel is still packing winds of 150, and shows some slight signs of weakening...good. She looks to be lurking off the NC coast by Thursday.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I am still concerned about getting sideswiped by her. I guess Monday will tell because by then she should reach 70W/25N. I just hope the models don't correct much more to the west. Too many variables to have alot of confidence in this one.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I think the has a good handle on this thing... it does appear to be on track with that WNW motion, maybe just a tad bit lower than is should, but probably irrevelant....
we all were saying just yesterday how important recon was... couldn't wait for recon to get in there and get that all important real time data. Well recon has been in there, the data all collected and analyzed, and it seems the is growing more confident with its projections... not as confident as with Fabian, but a lot more confident than just three days ago.... now I'm NOT saying florida is all clear.. but everything SEEMS to be falling in place to preclude that direct hit to the southern half... but as we all know... things change and we continue to watch....
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cyclone_head
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Thu
Posts: 74
Loc: Florida
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Good Morning all!!
The has been pretty much right on target all season long. All opposing factors seem always to come up null and void. I'm sticking with forcast.
That being said... If Isabel gets as far west as the Gulf Stream, what effect will those warm, swift currents have?
any comments?
Rick
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Storm Cooper
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1284
Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
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Thanks! It appears to have really blown the wind speed... but we'll keep going. I am not a real fan of this one...but the LBAR has been along w/ Cooper most of this ride 
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Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Isabel is headed toward that trough and weakness...Recon was in there....models are out....I think I can breath a lot easier now.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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Justin where does that leave the Space Coast?
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Up %$^# creek! No, just kidding. I just can't see the storm breaking through that trough east of Florida. I think pretty much as their mind made up that this storm is a threat to areas north of FL. Just my opinion and you never know for sure until it gets above your latitude.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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So Justin there is a trough off the coast that could protect us?
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StPeteGuy
Unregistered
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I figure if it hits 25N before 70W I would have to agree that Florida would look to be safe. However, I am still concerned about which Low heading south will dominate and the reaction on Isabel.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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I don't blame you for being concerned. Has Tampa had many backdoor canes?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Looking more and more like ALL of Florida will be spared, although there's obviously too much uncertainty to say anything like that for sure. Further north, I'm not real happy with the UK Met or the ...scary stuff for NC/Hattaras north through all of the Mid Atlantic/NE. I'm already about to be washed out from the remnants of Henri this weekend. Don't need anything else near me next weekend.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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I agree with you...................isn't there a chance for it to really peter out by the time it gets that far north?
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I sure hope so...Thing is, once these things get to the Carolina coast, they tend to accelerate...very quickly. In fact, the 1938 LI Express was moving at 70 MPH!!! So, not only do they come up on Long Island fast (leaving less evac. time if necessary), you have to add forward speed to whatever winds are left (to the east of the storm, but not west). So, that being said, if this thing doesn't get too overland in NC, we better all watch out from VA north. Floyd in 99 was thankfully just barely a TS when he crossed NY/LI, but he got here from NC in less than 12 hours.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Obviously, it's still way away. But for anyone interested in the '38 cane, which still holds the record for the fastest forward speed ever, here's a GREAT link. Lots and lots of reading for us to ponder until Monday or Tuesday...
http://www2.sunysuffolk.edu/mandias/38hurricane/
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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hypercane
Unregistered
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<<This could still happen....beyond 120 hrs...or before...so, no one is out of the woods until it is past your latitude or has clearly turned away...neither of which has happened for anyone on the Fl east coast---or east coast, period, as of yet.>>>
I certainly don't buy "out of the woods." Even though they didn't have models at the time, I'm sure Florida was "out of the woods" with Hurricane Betsy, too.
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jeff moore
Unregistered
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QUESTION ASSUMING ALL THINGS STAY LIKE THEY ARE WHAT CAN WE EXPECT IN DELAWARE /PHIL AREA :D
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Well, here we go again. Latest discussion (11:00) has the track shifting west again, albeit ever so slightly. One of the better discussions we've had on exactly what players are involved and how this may play out. I'm not yet ready to write off Florida, the slower the movement the more possibility that anything can happen.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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I noticed that, too. Going to pay close attention this weekend. Like I said before, even a graze could pose problems although not even close to a hit, direct or indirect. It's a BIG storm.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Just read the 11AM discussion and watched trop. update. The Eye has INCREASED in size over the past 12 hours and the storm is even larger than before. Still forcast to be a CAT 4 in 72 hrs. and even 5 days out, a 3. Yikes. Lyons said that there is an increasing likelihood that the US will take a hit. Models trend it further west and slower too.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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last few days i've had the idea that isabel would respond to the upper troughing near the east coast and the shortwave passage by jerking nw for the couple of days around sep 15.. but end up bending left again thereafter as ridging pulses stronger. isabel has been overall moving slower than forcast, as it has done consistently since it developed one week ago. remember there was a large upper trough squeezed out of existence ahead of isabel over last week.. the storm is causing some alteration to the nearby upper features. as alluded in its 11am discussion, isabel is charging the ridge to the north.. and pressing the rest of the upper features nearby. i wouldn't entirely hedge my bet on isabel not just pressing out this carolina upper trough too, as the shortwave passing to the north will siphon its vorticity out, and a narrow mid level ridge over the mid south is working eastward and will probably add to the western extent of the subtropical ridge. i think that by tuesday the heights near the carolina coast should be rising.. therefore NW turn shouldn't be as pronounced.. if i've got any handle on what isabel's behavior has tended to up to this point.
you might say that i'm still leaning on the more southern solutions that don't depend on a recurvature.. when most of the long range model guidance has trended right over the last couple of days. yes, i'm trying to guard the reasoning that takes isabel on the path i'd figured earlier by the expected longwave pattern and whatever might have been indicating about shortwave timing. i've also got reason to suspect that global model runs are too progressive with both the subtropical ridge evolution and the westerly flow over the united states.. and that movement in response to height falls and rises will be occurring more slowly than progged.
anyhow, my 00Z thursday forecast position will likely be west of the actual location, maybe even northwest, as the westward progression of the storm is overblown by nearly everyone/everything. but, one might also argue that the northward progression is also overblown. a couple of things are becoming clear to me:
isabel will probably not make landfall until next friday at earliest. the forecast downtrend in intensity hasn't taken place as has been consistently forecast for the last three days.. don't assume the weakening in the long range outlook is real until you can see the hostile upper environment developing. and remember.. the key to where isabel goes right now is in the upper trough near the carolina coast.
HF 1509z13september
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jlauderdal
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Tue
Posts: 97
Loc: Fort Lauderdale, FLorida
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nice disco...your track from a few days ago might verify..we are all still in it with our tracks..anything is posible as isabel seems to be pressing the ridge north and as you say bunching everything up and plowing forward as she maintains cat 4/5 strength..kinda os like a big fullback..3 yards and a cloud of dust and do it all over again and keep moving the chains,..thats what she is doing
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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I'm with you on this, HF. What got me in the 11am discussion is exactly what you alluded to:
<<HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST
BEFORE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OCCURS IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE
MODELS OBVIOUSLY HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE STRONG RIDGING TO THE
NORTH OF ISABEL VERY WELL. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE OUTFLOW ON THE
NORTH SIDE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AND SINKING ALONG 30N-33N...WHICH
MAY HAVE HELPED TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS PATTERN HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 72 HOURS
AND CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH ISABEL. >>
Essentially, the storm created it's own steering environment via its outflow. The models are even worse at picking on on this sort of feature than they are on tropical cyclones in general. I'm not buying that anywhere in Florida is out of the woods yet, despite what the models may say. They've apparently trended back westward, and I would not be shocked to see them trend further westward with time.
This is one to watch folks - and I am really, really surprised at that comment in the 5am discussion. That's just irresponsible 7 days out, especially when the 5 day forecast uncertainty swath still suggests anywhere along the coast may be impacted.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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SteveieB
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 27
Loc: Oviedo, Florida
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I don't understand the concern over the 's note stating that as of the 0500AST dicsussion there were no dynamic models suggesting a hit in FL.
It didn't say FL was out of the woods or out of the well advertised error of the forecast.
My take is that the will indicate, to the best of the their ability, FL is out of the woods when watches/warnings are posted anywhere N of FL. And then anybody w/ 1/4 of brain would still know that you still need to stay abreast of the developing situation because things can change.
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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wazzup? been a real busy 18 hours...and i see she is still heading west,.....babeeeee
remember Gilbert?
Andrew?
Hugo?
powerful enough that no one can tell them what to do...
an object in motion stays in motion, unless influenced by forces great than it....
hmmm
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joepub1a
Weather Watcher
Reged: Thu
Posts: 46
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If you look at the posts that I made after last night's 11PM update, you might swear that I wrote the 11AM dicussion. They are begining to question the same exact things I ranted about last night. The sounds like they can't even believe their own forecast will pan out. Very flimsy setup for a big turn. Meanwhile, we have a storm thats just eating up ground to the west while we scratch our heads, We've just entered the Floyd/Bertha nightmare. A cane coming right at Florida, with a turn coming, but we can't quite say when. The sight alone of that picture flashing on TV monday morning will make for a really stupid week in Fla. even if we don't (and we hopefully won't) get hit. Do not plan on going anywhere north on I95 after monday, esp. if the can't count out the chance of Fla. being hit.
Joe in JAX
Edited by joepub1a (Sat Sep 13 2003 11:55 AM)
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Richisurfs
Unregistered
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I agree with SteveB, You guys are totally overeacting to what The said was a "small" shift to the right. It is almost as if you don't want the all clear for Florida because that makes it more exciting for you. Look at their 11am forecast track and tell me if that shows Florida taking a hit. I'm not dumb though and I won't feel the true " all clear" til it passes my latitude. Try to relax a little and stop overanalyzing every15 minutes of this storms movement. By the way, I will conitinue to take the 's forecast as the closest to what will probably happen because contrary to what some think in here they know more than all of us.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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Is taking the 50 west to the 75 a viable option for a Titusville resident if forced to leave? It does look like and miscalled it but they were I believe acting on information they had at the time.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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I was the guy who so confidently posted the little excerpt from the 5 am discussion...then I read the 11am. Come on NOAA Gulfstream...the models need input because from what I see, and what Lyons just said on , FL is not out of the woods yet and neither is anyone else in the Southeast.
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Jara
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richisurfs
Unregistered
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Sue, i don't believe The or the has miscalled anything. they simply shifted their 5am forcast to the right a little. And if they did miscall it then who is calling it right? "rick in mobile" or maybe "joe in Jax"? i hardly think so. don't let these guys get you all worked up...you honestly don't need that until the situation really calls for it...which it hasn't!!!
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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Somehow I get the idea that EC Florida is going to be hit. I have not had a sense of permanance since 911 tore our lives apart anyway. Rule of thumb with me and others who have had a lot of losses. Don't get attached to anything material. On a small scare I learne that when the water heater went out and some things got damaged beyond use. True I would like to enjoy what so many families get to............the boring suburban predictable routine with soccer practice, bake sales, projects around the house etc. I know that is slightly off topic but it is food for thought. Hug your loved ones tight this weekend.
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SteveieB
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 27
Loc: Oviedo, Florida
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Sandiaflower,
The real key more than route is leaving early. SR50 to the 408 (east/west) to the FL Turnpike may not be a bad plan. But early, early, early, early. The Floyd evac. was a mess, could not get to Orlando by any road easily after they all (50, beeline, etc.) were filled up. My in-laws came in from T'ville to stay with us in the Orlando area and it was a mess. My co-workers at had some interesting stories about the evac. But the ones who had the easiest time were those that left early and hotel reservations already made.
I DO NOT think the has blown it yet. The errors at the 120 hour mark are huge, just ask the , when your area starts getting in the 3-4 day error envelope (very easily deciphered from the forecast plots) it is then time, with a storm this big, so start seriously considering your options.
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lawgator
Unregistered
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I'm looking at the latest 1/2 hour loop and there does seem to me to be a slight jog northward. Could be the start of the turn or could just be another momentary shift. At any rate, I was also looking at the water vapor imagery and it seems to me -- uneducated in these things mind you -- that the "slot" between the high and the ridge coming out over the Carolinas is narrowing. It seems to my untrained eye as though either the storm has to make an ABRUPT turn to the north very soon to get caught in the slot or it is going to miss it and keep meandering its way west. Do any of you with more experience in these things see the same thing?
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Jim M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
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First off, no need to panic right now. A key is to keep an eye on the cruise ships right now. If they think there is a chance, they will start changing cruise plans. As of right now, none are changing anything for next week. If the storm even looks like it could be close, will play it safe and issue watches or even warnings. Pick up some supplies and go outside and enjoy the weather if you are in Central Florida this weekend. If you want, check in after the posts a new advisory. Even if this storm does get here, it would be Tuesday evening to Wednesday at the earliest. I think by tomorrow afternoon or evening, the situation would be clearer. It is still very likely this storm will NOT come to Florida. If I am in Northern Ga or the Carolina's, I would be doing the same thing.
Even if this system keeps going west for the next 24 hours, it is not going to mean it will hit. If it is still going west, at its current speed, on Sunday afternoon, I might start looking at other options; but as far as today goes, I am heading out. I will keep an eye on advisories. But I am going to go have some fun and enjoy some football this weekend.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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YES and YES.........................have all your ducks in a row way before you need to shoot them for supper. We plan on getting out of dodge early....................................
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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No, it's the language used in that discussion that has everyone questioning it - especially the major change in philosophy hinted at by the 11am discussion!
<<NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA. >>
That word "EVER" is the key. Why is the saying EVER? Why are they even looking that far out with the models? It was an unwarranted statement, and I think they realized it and tried to cover themselves to some degree at 11am.
Needless to say, Isabel looks to be at least holding it's own now - eye has cleared out once again, and though convection is squashed somewhat to the north, outflow has become well-defined once again...this time in most quadrants. Some strengthening today is not out of the question.
Recon is on it's way, as are a couple of P-3s for 9hour research missions. The G-IV will be out there tonight, along with another recon. We'll know some more later tonight...I just hope they sample the strength of the subtropical high to the north of Isabel and not just the synoptic environment ahead of the storm.
--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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True but I am still going to have my ducks in a row. Rich if anything this could end up being a dress rehearsal which checks to see if we are ready when the curtains draw up on the stage. A closer look at and does show in the fall area a risk for all of us on the southeast coast and of course the other side of the peninsula for a backdoor cane. I hope your day with your family can be pleasant.............
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zoidy
Unregistered
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For what it;s worth..
Here in Spring Hill (at the western end of RT 50 and West of RT75)...I have been watching what the veterans do. Just bought my plywood from Home Depot Thursday (precautionary, as I too am very concervative). Living here is a learning experience..watch what others around you who have lived here a while are doing. The guy that DELIVERED my wood this morning said there is a run on plywood here also, started this morning. Maybe a lot of nervous "nubies" like myself...but interesting non the less.
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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I see nothing on the satellites that would suggest to me this hurricane will start changing its course.
I do see a slight north of due west, but it is merely following a harrowing path over water. As well, Izzy is getting bigger and stronger......the outflow is better, and it is a nice little perfect hurricane...heading almost due west, with nothing to change its trajectory.
so implications that my stupid predictions will get people worked up is silly.
one only has to look at the monster heading our way....almost due west....to get worked up....
My thoughts are through the keys or a bit north...maybe a direct hit on Miami....slice through...hit the gulf....and hammer some more happless folks in the northern gulf coast.
If I believed the models...this thing should be on a much more north trek...and it simply isn't. Same thing I heard about Andrew....it was gonna swing north...gonna swing north...
it ain't, cause it's too strong for the prevailing weather patterns out there right now...and with the high pressure ridge building, and the bermuda high extending west...only a denying soul would consider a banana hook out to sea...
this is the real deal......and all my typing and broo ha ha ain't working anyone up....Izzy is.
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Richisurfs
Unregistered
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Sue, Thanks for the thought. The biggest problem we are having today is my wife has a cold. Take a look at the projected path:
96 hrs. 28.5N 73.0W
120Hrs 31.5N 75.0W
I don't see that as being the latitudes or longitudes of anywhere in the state of Florida. I know it probably bothers some people in here but I'll still take the projections of the over ANYBODY posting on this forum. I appreciate everyone on here and know that most have more knowledge than me but all I see here is us getting some decent waves that will be hard to paddle out in. I've been all over the world and when this place gets big it is the hardest place to paddle out in I have ever seen...seriously! I'm not stupid though cuz I won't feel personally safe for me and my family until it clears 28 degrees. I live in Indialantic by the way. I hope you can have a great day too!
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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Well us greenhorns error way too much on the side of caution and I don't know who has the best information. I did see somewhere a comment on a site that Florida was not seen in the models as a strike possibility. Not sure that was a good thing to put there even if it looked to be the case. I figured getting my evac plan sewn up was a good idea in the event we have to beat feet.
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl 28.56N 81.27W
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In response to
was also looking at the water vapor imagery and it seems to me -- uneducated in these things mind you -- that the "slot" between the high and the ridge coming out over the Carolinas is narrowing. It seems to my untrained eye as though either the storm has to make an ABRUPT turn to the north very soon to get caught in the slot or it is going to miss it and keep meandering its way west
_______________
I am increasingly convinced that Isabel will NOT be significantly affected by the trough you refer to, and that it will continue to the W or WNW a bit longer. However, note that there is another trough in Canada/Central US forming which should move rapidly East and that trough I do think will affect Isabel. IF, and this is a big IF, that trough interacts with Isabel, she should turn rather sharply, and with a lot of luck, EC Florida will be spared a direct hit. Others have said this, and I can only echo emphatically: Timing is everything! NO One is out of the woods yet. This storm as a cat 4 or higher, will break most of the models and do what the (as yet unknown by mankind) rules of nature dictate. With a weaker storm, we may understand some of those rules a bit better, but no one on this planet that I am aware of knows what they all are well enough to tell anyone at this point in time that 'you are out of the woods where you live'.
Keep posted, make your own INFORMED decisions and make and review plans so you can take early action should it become necessary. If the storm does pass you by, and I hope it does, you can say the practice was informative and if it doesn't pass you by, the plans may save your life or reduce damage to your property.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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zoidy
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I'm on the West Coast..hunkering down..boarding up (maybe)..have all my suppies....but staying put at home and riding it out. Not getting to get caught out in the open on the highway. I figure she has to die down some before she gets here. The biggest cane ever here came off the gulf with 100mh winds years ago. The largest "backdoor" had winds around 90.
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richisurfs
Unregistered
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Ok Rick, I concede...you know more than the ...sorry about that. hey, I appreciate your opinion ..i was around for Andrew so I know what it did. I listened to NOAA weather radio for 36 hrs right until it went into Miami as they predicted it would stay on a westerly path. I remember because I live 3hrs. up the road and I had a vested interest in what was going to happen. I didn't forget. I respect your opinion ..i just don't believe it over the "experts" at the and not one of them said it was gonna run into Miami.Time will tell though...Later
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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Richie I see what you are saying too. 28.5 in 3 days or so is the lattitude of ..............so that does bring a level of slight concern. Now if it stays 400 miles out than just watching will do. I want to know when this magical right turn is supposed occur. I enjoy your posts. You seem like a real down to earth person..............surfer's got soul and beyond that they have an intrinsic feel for the ocean's behavior.
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Stuart Dave
Unregistered
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Good surf this AM in Stuart but not due to hurricane. Someone I know said there are no fish out in the surf which meant a hurricane was coming and I did not see any today so I thought maybe the was wrong with their 5 am statement. The more I thought about it must be right as they have all the tools and the new aircraft at their disposal. I therefore do not need to concern myself with any threat however will prepare my body , surfboard, and surf kayak for what looks to be memorable surf later this week.
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Jim M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Sat
Posts: 32
Loc: Poinciana, Fl
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I should clarify which cruises. Watch the cruises out of Port Canveral going to the Central and Northern Bahamas. Some of the Southern Bahamas and Carribean cruises have to change now to be safe. As of right now, none of these have canceled or changed their routes. They will change these well before any watches or warnings would go up.
On that note, I'm gone. Have a good weekend. 
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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That is pretty much how I am handling it. We slide out of here early. Get a good seat to watch from. As many have said on here. Too many things have to happen with ridges and troughs in order to get the miracle right turn. And if it goes real far west than you won't want the right turn which could take it right over the e coast of fl.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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I must say that when you look at all the features on the Water Vapor loop....it looks very complex and timing will be everything with this storm. Too many variables for me to figure it out...but looking at the close up sats...it doesn't appear to be going due west anymore.
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Richisurfs
Unregistered
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Sue, thanks again for your comments. i really appreciate everyone on here and their thoughts because it gives me a better insight into whats going on. i hope that you can go out somewhere with your family today and get your mind off this thing and enjoy being with them. Lets all worry about it when and if we really have to. Be prepared but keep everything in perspective today and take each day as it comes.
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BabyCat
Weather Guru
Reged: Thu
Posts: 150
Loc: New Orleans, La.
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Agree
don't see a s. Fla. hit at all.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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Believe me that is what my other half is saying to me. It is just hard to manage anxiety with the condition I have. I take a lot of deep breaths and listen to quiet music. I have had to manage several crisis situations and I find what works best is to isolate the emotions from the known facts. Make a list of possible plans to use if needed. I had to live with a plan out west with the earthquake threats. There is no warning either. You are welcome on the compliment..................
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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kinda funny how the west florida people keep calling isabel a potential 'backdoor' system. this time of year most tropical cyclones that affect florida are going to come from the east (except for the occasional henri/gabrielle type system that gets caught under a major trough and punched NE)... so the gulf is really the backdoor until october.. east florida is the front. besides, this backdoor business... is overrated. it's unlikely you'd get anywhere near the effect on the other side of florida that the folks near the landfall point get.. especially with a slower mover.
anyhow, not sure how anybody can say the blew anything. has the storm gone pretty much where they said? yep. is there any huge reason to believe it won't go where they predict? nope.. theirs is probably better than any of ours... and they haven't made any huge changes, just gradually shifted the later forecast track NW over time. now they're talking about counter-correcting it. i'm just going with what i reasoned a few days ago for continuity (who wants to sound like the ?) and that there isn't any huge problem with my reasoning up to now... may be in a couple days, but right now a lot of things could happen.
it isn't hype to say this: isabel has a good chance of hitting the east coast as a major hurricane. if its any consolation, we're on an amazing string of luck that usually prevents this likelihood from happening.. but then again we can't start assuming that every time we get into a situation like this, that some fairy godmother sudden weakening or ridge breakdown will prevent the blow from coming. usually folks on the site overdo the threat everything poses.. myself included.. but until threat passes on there's really no way to know. we don't know what's going to happen. its all about keeping cool during the suspense.
HF 1706z13september
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richisurfs
Unregistered
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I really should have been surfing all morning long and I wasn't so i'm going now. Have a great day everyone. I hope and pray for the miracle of a strike by this thing on no one! Unscientific I know but....
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SandiaFlower
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Maybe the backdoor reference was a cane would enter Tampa from the east rather than the Gulf. It comes through our front door on the east and into your backdoor. I don't know what it would do once on the land and all that. LOL I gave up the fairy godmother fantasy a long time ago. I just wonder if the forecast is built on a lot of hope.............we hope it turns north.
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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uh, zoidy.. i wouldn't do anything more than watch and make sure you have supplies.. until the puts out a forecast path that crosses the state of florida. at that point, board up if you like.. but when you local forecast through all next week is partly cloudy with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms.... there's no cause. that's like going into a tornado shelter when you see a thunderhead off in the distance.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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There is therapeutic value in prayer......................catch some killer waves dude!
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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As for the consensus of the National Hurricane Center and all that...
When you read the 11 am discussion, the replacement cycle for a new eye wall has been completed, the hurricane has increased in size, and is now set for strengthening again...only larger now...Additionally, the forward speed is 10 mph on a west track for the next 24 hours.
thats another 240 miles west.
factor in the fact they are now completely unsure of what might make the thing head north.....read the discussion.
and then look at the projections from the "experts"...the paths on their maps....
it doesn't fit what this cane is doing at all....
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SandiaFlower
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Yes that is why I am getting prepared. The does the best they can with the information available.............I would not want to be in their shoes. I admire what they do and the risks taken by the hurricane plane pilots.
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Richisurfs
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The shifted their forecast track a little to the right from the 5am forecast. They are not gonna project what they don't believe will happen. They do make mistakes but they are not stupid. Whether you want to admit it or not they are the experts. They have more knowledge and are more equipped to deal with this than any of us...period. Time will tell though...I'm surfing now!
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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They are just telling us to keep our eyes open and be ready for in case scenarios..............still I admire what they do. I am sorry if it looked otherwise. Not sure they make mistakes as much some might think. Hurricanes operate on their own set of rules that we don't know about sometimes.
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bob316
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guys good chat it looks like we are all over the place like the models sometimes but this thing is still 6 days out alot can happen and will the high is going west with the storm and getting stronger this could push the weaking north and never turn much and get fla or it could feal the weaking and go north and not hit nothing but a few sharks 6 days a long time 3 days ago some people said texas or southwest now some say fla out of woods not so fast 6 days ihope no one gets hit but i think the e/c from fla north needs to stay alert but not all clear 6 days fridat i was sick today i feel fine thanks guys keep up the good work
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Richisurfs
Unregistered
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My last post was directed to someone else and not to you if thats what you thought. i really would just like to see you go out and have a great day now..I really am gonna go surf now...haha
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SandiaFlower
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It's all good Rich. Heading out of here too.................maybe get a cup of coffee and relax................take care and see y'all later on here tonight. Sue
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StPeteGuy
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look at this storm track in 1926 - not much of a difference (I am not saying it will do this just that this was a storm everyone thought would turn too but it never did):
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StPeteGuy
Unregistered
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sorry for the second post but I couldn't edit.. when I say they thought it would turn I mean the Miami Hearld reported that residents would only see some wind and some flooding but the paper stated they thought the storm would not hit Miami. Of course, there wasn't radar and sat's like now..
And, of course, Isabele started her track a bit north of this storm but the idea is the same - a straightline track thru Florida heading for Mexico. Since canes seem to cluster year after year, my guess (a totally uneducated guess) would be right thru Florida since Isabel has passed all the other activity tracks that headed north and she will end up in Texas of Mexico.
One note: I noticed that most Cat 4 storms only lose 1 cat once they hit Florida and get to the other coast. So, if Isabele hits Florida as a cat 3, she should be a cat 2 by the time she gets to the other coast if she tracks almost west.
Ok, enough of the doomsday junk - but I wanted other met's to look at this..
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Richisurfs
Unregistered
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Hey StPeteGuy..thats a pretty awesome comparision to Isabel but you gotta admit they did not quite have the forecasting tools in 1926 that they do now... so when they say it was gonna turn what was that based on?. Every storm has its own life and every year is a different year. Lets pray that's not the scenario for us!
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Arnold Schwarz
Unregistered
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C'mon, guys. This thing isn't going to hit florida at all.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Great posts and of course keep your guard up at all times. With historical precedents like '26, no one should question what this cane can do. Earlier poster mentioned that the big ones "do what they want," in essence, create their own weather...so even though may give indication FLA is 'out of the woods' is NO guarantee. However, with all the tools at their disposal, and the fact that they've been pretty on track so far, we must give some credence to their predictions.
That being said, if this thing does what they expect and does make that big right turn...don't forget about us up north. 'Cuz right now it looks like Hattaras gets nipped and then shoots up the coast. All speculation and conjecture right now. Hopefully recon and the 5 update will shed some important light.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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scottsvb1
Unregistered
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On a system crossing over land after landfall, its weakening trend matters on a few conditions. 1 is the elevation. 2 is the width going across and 3 what trend the system is in..forexample for central florida, if a system is a cat 3 around 125mph crossing at 10mph and strengthning at landfall, it should lose only about 15-25mph...Same but weakning at landfall it could drop as much as 40-50mph. Erin droped from 80mph -50mph with no real weakning or strengthning trend at landfall... Andrew went from 150mph(esthigher) to 125mph, with less land but was strengthning. Overall its the landmass,speed and faze its in. scottsvb
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Clark
Meteorologist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1710
Loc: Great Lakes 45.95N 84.55W
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Richisurfs -
There is one important thing you leave out.
<<NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY>> - From the
To focus on the exact position and not the actual range is a fool's errand, and it has come back to cause much consternation in the end. I'm not saying it will hit Florida - but there is no scenario right now that says that anyone in Florida should let their guard down. The models - and ! - just aren't that good at forecasting beyond 2-3 days. This storm certainly is no Fabian.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Alex
Unregistered
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The hurricane hunters found winds that correspond to catagory 5 status. They are going to kick the storm back up to a 5
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Question: If memory serves, the starts doing updates every three hours once the storm nears the mainland. Is this true, and if so, how far (miles-wise) out does a storm have to be before the more frequent updates? Thx
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Richisurfs
Unregistered
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Clark, You are right and we are not letting our guard down at all. I stated earlier that until it passed my latitude i would not feel safe for either me or my family. I do, however believe that the track they are projecting out is the one most likely to occur. You know what? I just want good waves and no one to get hurt...thats all! I say be prepared but don't overeact!
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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St. Pete Guy - does this track resemble the current storm?
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at193804.asp
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Sat Sep 13 2003 02:27 PM)
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Okay, here's my thinking. The has been expecting that turn to the w/nw or nw for over 3 days now, and it hasn't happened yet. Both the 5AM forecast and the 11AM forecast had IsaHell moving W @ 9-10mph with the "and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours" line. So what do we know right now?
1) That at LEAST until 11AM Sunday Morning she's heading W
.
2) She's moving faster than she was at 5AM, which will make it harder for her to make a huge right hand turn, which will be difficult to do with her size as it is.
3) The is conservative and usually waits for 2-3 (maybe more) model runs before changing their tune.
4) The tracks have now shifted more WEST, not RIGHT, and not just one model but a consensus.
I'd like to point out that the stated yesterday that errors for this track have averaged near 275 NM on Day 4 and 375 NM on Day 5...and for intensity near 20knts each day. That's a huge margin of error, and it could very well put Florida in the bull's eye or put Isabel out to sea. They are the experts but let's remember there's not been a lot of CAT 5 storms for them to compare her too. This may very well be a "rogue" storm that is going to do whatever it wants too, and the models only spit out what humans put in them. has made mistakes before....Andrew was growing into a monster and there was only one met in Miami who was bold enough to go on the air and blow off the "official forecast", and he was right. Irene was supposedly pounding the West Coast of Florida even though Jim Cantore was in Miami being blown away.
As far as a where she's going, look at the coordinates from the 5AM and 11AM:
22.0N/60.4W
22.2N/61.5W
She's moved 2/10ths of a degree north and 1.5 degrees west in 6 hours. I would say that's a good indication of which way she's going.
Sometimes you just have to follow the real thing, forget the models. We'll get (hopefully) some good info today from Recon and by next week we'll either be here talking about how close it was or we won't be able to get online.
I've gotten so hyped up in the past about these storms that there is an actual "letdown" feeling that I went through when we were given the "all clear" because it was all I focused on 23 hours a day. Sue, with your condition, the last thing you need to be doing is watching loops all day long, hon. Go out and enjoy what you have today. I lost a cousin - an NYFD Officer - on 9/11 and my father died last December. Yes, it hurts a lot but I can't stay focused on it because there isn't a darned thing I can do to change what's already happened.
Ok, now watch her turn right at 5.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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From what I can tell on the GOES IR she appears to moving at about 280-285 degrees.... West is 270.... WNW 292.5.... so its definitely off the due west and perhaps even the just north of due west track during the past couple of hours or so... maybe it will flatter back out later but I doubt it...
Thus far has been right on.... but with a word of caution.... they've been wrong many times in the past.... although they seem to be doing quite well this season with the majors... so far....
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MiamiChris
Unregistered
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I believe that the issues three hour updates after watches and/or warnings are issued.
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troyc
Unregistered
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Richi..shouldnt you be in the wtaer by now.
The wind is turning onshore up here in Cocoa Beach get it before the wind get son it.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2107
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Excellent post Colleen - and good advice. Isabel has regained Cat V status and that's not good news. Good insight from HankFrank and Clark as well. The storm is altering the environment around her - I'll amplify on that in a new Main Page article later this afternoon.
ED
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troy
Unregistered
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----even though Jim Cantore was in Miami being blown away-----
remember that running joke a couple of years back that wherever Jim Cantore was , thats wherre the storm was goin?
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Ed, the thing that bothers me somewhat is that is back to a Cat 5 again, per recon... and with that comes the "dreaded" .... they create their own environment factor... which is always the unknown for me in forecasting.... along with affecting all the models as well...
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hypercane
Unregistered
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Isabel looks pretty much textbook to my eye right now. I see good outflow in all directions, has a classic shape.
That trough off the Carolinas doesn't look very strong or influential, to my untrained eye. I don't see how anyone is off the hook, yet.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Remember when they said in the 11AM "some intensification"? Check this out:
210 PM EDT SAT SEP 6 2003
RECENT REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 158 KT AND 157 KT... RESPECTIVELY. ALSO...DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS INDICATE WINDS OF 167KT...OR 192 MPH...JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE ISABEL IS BEING INCREASED TO 140 KT...OR 160 MPH...AS OF 2 PM EDT...1800Z. THIS
MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AGAIN.
FORECASTER STEWART
192 mph winds a few hundred feet above the SURFACE? Incredible! I think we're looking at a whole new ball game here.
Thanks, Ed...sometimes I can actually get my thoughts out in words and make them sound somewhat sensible.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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excellent posts...and i certainly can't add anything to it right now. Well said Colleen...
this is no fish spinner
"they create their own environments"
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Richisurfs
Unregistered
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Colleen, that was a good post with lots of good info. I would disagree with you on one thing. Everybody says the "NHC has been forcasting a north turn and it hasn't happened yet". I think from what I've read the forcasted turn has not been projected over these past few days but still in the future. Everyone keeps looking for it to happen but It really is not supposed to have happened "yet". well, we will all just have to wait and see. Sux having to do that though!
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hypercane
Unregistered
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Per the Miami forecast discussion:
SOUTH FLORIDA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003
.DISCUSSION...LIGHT EAST SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE CWA ATTM WITH THE
WIND VEERING QUICKLY TO THE WEST IN THE MID LEVELS. STORM MOTION
TODAY FAIRLY SLOW BUT FCSTD SOUNDING SHOWS THE EASTERLIES INCREASING
WITH DEPTH BY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE NORTH...
Easterlies increasing with depth by Sunday in response to strengthening of surface high to the north. Where's the big escape hatch? Is there a chance we could have a NW drift, in response to the weakening offshore trough, followed by a hard left, perhaps even some WSW movement?
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SteveieB
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 27
Loc: Oviedo, Florida
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Correct !
Look back at Wed. 0500AST forecast for 13/0600Z position by the dreaded . Forecast is 21.5/60.5, today's 0900Z position is ...........(drumroll) ....... 22.2/60.4, those Bastards!
The errors Colleen mentioned is the 10 year average of the forecasts v actuals, not just this storm.
The next 24-36 hours or so will be the smoking gun on the turn or not.
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zoidy
Unregistered
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HanKFrank....
not boarding yet..just getting the materials in house IN CASE they were needed for this storm or the next. As far as my
"back door" comment, that is a term I hear all the time around were I live. And yes, I believe that's what is meant..that a cane hits the East and progresses over us into the Gulf...that I understand. So, just for recks sake..if a catagory 4 cane hit the East coast direcly across from us then proceded toward us, how much would it degrade?
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Moxinj
Unregistered
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I've been looking at satellite loops, and other than the HUGE eye, the storm looks to be going more NNW now.
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Moxinj
Unregistered
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err WNW
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richisurfs
Unregistered
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I just realized that in my previous posts i may have said the shifted the storms projected path to the "right" when i really meant to the "left" or "west" i knew what i meant.. .no bne else did though. i'm an amateur...i freely admit that!
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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My comments on the "wnw/nw track" not happening yet are based on what the has been showing in their "projected path" graphics seen on and their own website. Those were only 72 hours out and they showed a turn --albiet gradual--that has not panned out yet. If you watched the WC this morning, it looked like Florida was safe, but when I checked the 5AM advisory and heard "west at 9mph" and then at 11 "west at 10mph" for the next 24 hours, that is not exactly what the graphics are showing.
I did not know that they were basing that on a 10 year average. Either way, it's still a wide margin for error and I don't recall bashing the anywhere in my post. I was simply pointing out what is visible to the human eye.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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NHC has done quite well so far.... system continues on the projected WNW track as revealed by the latest GOES IR loop... she is stacked mighty fine right now... huge eye, great symmetry.... outflow good...might now get much better than it is right now... classic as well as historic... last pix hinted of the eye tilting towards the NW.... a NW/SE tilt... maybe just a exaggerated wobble, or maybe indications that the minor northerly component we see now will perhaps continue or even accelerate .. but, it did the same thing yesterday all morning, had that NW/SE tilt.... and still went basically west... just keep watching and reading... everyone regardless of where they are still has plenty of time to react if need be...
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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I am seeing a slightly more northerly component on the satellites too. However, I doubt this is some sort of a turn....
remember..they slow down before changing direction abruptly.....it could easily jog dead west...but wouldn;t suprise me if it begins a more wwnw track...still holding to my feeling that south fla. is toast.
will be a terribly interesting next week. we all probe this channel, looking for the killer cane....the one they will read about later, the one we all fear...
is it another one of those?....
yep
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I knew what you meant, Richi.
I'm an amatuer too....and don't let me tell you any different!
Curiousity: Has there ever been a storm that dropped from a 5 to 4 and then back to a 5 again in less than 12 hours? At least, 12 "official" hours? Wouldn't you just love to be a fly on the wall at the ? Well with my luck, I'd be the one that couldn't dodge the swatter.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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richisurfs
Unregistered
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If you look at Steveieb's post it say the on wednesday projected this storm to be at 21.5/60.5 for sept 13th and the lastest advisory has it at 22.2/60.4...thats pretty close, in fact the storm is even sitting a little further north than projected three days ago. wheres the problem? it seems like at this point it is pretty much doing what they forcast that it would. I said earlier and I still stand by this...You can't be looking at this thing every 15 minutes and then overanalyzing everything that it might or might not do.
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richisurfs
Unregistered
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Hey colleen. I totally appreciate your posts and everyone elses for that matter. It really helps me have a better understanding. I have always had a love/hate relationship with these things..i love 'em for the waves but hate 'em for the destuction they can cause...
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003
.DISCUSSION...
...BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES NEXT FEW DAYS...
...VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE ISABEL ABOUT 1200 MILES ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WILL FOLLOW OFFICIAL TRACK WHICH TAKES POWERFUL HURRICANE ISABEL NW...EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT THIS IS AN OUTLOOK AND TRACK ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD CAN BE AS MUCH AS 400 NAUTICAL MILES. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT IMPACTS ISABEL WILL HAVE ON EC FL...AT A MINIMUM WE WILL SEE LARGE SWELLS AND POUNDING SURF AFFECT THE COASTLINE BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. BASED ON CURRENT WAVE MODELS... HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AND COULD BE NEEDED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SUCH POWERFUL SYSTEMS OFTEN PRODUCE THEIR OWN ENVIRONMENTS AND SOMETIMES DO NOT INITIALLY REACT TO THE SUBTLE EXTERNAL FORCES ACTING ON THEM.
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richisurfs
Unregistered
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i'm sorry..the lastest advisory has it at 61.5 w
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SJ7611
Unregistered
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URNT12 KNHC 131853
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1853Z
B. 22 DEG 32 MIN N
62 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2494 M
D. 60 KT
E. 320 DEG 057 NM
F. 035 DEG 132 KT
G. 310 DEG 022 NM
H. 932 MB
I. 10 C/ 3081 M
J. 15 C/ 3078 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 1 NM
P. AF866 0313A ISABEL OB 13
MAX FL WIND 158 KT NE QUAD 1725Z. MAX TEMP 18C AT 312/005.
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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SUCH POWERFUL SYSTEMS OFTEN PRODUCE THEIR OWN ENVIRONMENTS AND SOMETIMES DO NOT INITIALLY REACT TO THE SUBTLE EXTERNAL FORCES ACTING ON THEM.
well, at least now they are on the same page I have been on...damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead...westward ho....here we go....
Miami bound....
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richisurfs
Unregistered
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hey Rick, have you sent your resume into the yet? sorry man, i couldn't resist that one! i totally respect your opinion but of course i do think your wrong. It's gonna do pretty much what the says. of course the big if is "pretty much"...oh well
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Hey Frank--I got to use that link ya gave me! Thanks Buddy!
5AM - 22.0 11AM: 22.2 2ish: 22.5 --> North
5AM - 60.4 11AM: 61.5 2ish: 62.3 --> West
It is going to be interesting (to say the leastest) to see what 5pm brings us.
Is it just me or does Cheryl Lemke make you drowsy? I'm going to tape record her so I can sleep at night.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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Colleen agree Lemke is a bore...everytime she gets on I turn the TV off! I think the storm is heading just north of west. I agree with Frank P. It might not be WNW but it is not west...it is in between the two headings.
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SteveieB
Weather Watcher
Reged: Mon
Posts: 27
Loc: Oviedo, Florida
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It is official, back to a Cat 5
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I just watched those loops and I do see a northerly component. Could this be due to the system over the Carolinas tugging at her a bit? If you watch it long enough, I think there is a serpent-like look to that system. And if Isabel is gonna catch it, she'd better hurry up, as someone else here said (Rick?) the time slot is narrowing.
One thing for sure: she's a monster. She takes up almost a whole GRID. Imagine what she will look like in two days! Eek.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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Man, just got home from work, is this a monster or what!!!
Anyone know what the size of the eye is. Its massive. Hey colleen, glad to see ya.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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The rain field looks like it would take up the whole state of florida.
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Yo Justin, using the GOES Vis at 20:01 UTC estimate the center to be at ~22.7N and 62.6W... she's definitely heading WNW this afternoon... I'd estimate her present motion to be around 290-295 degrees during the past several hours... WNW = 292.5 degrees.... best guess of course
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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I was off 0.1N.....
shes at 22.6N (I thought about 22.7) and 62.6W.. got that one... moving WNW at 12 mph
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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Melbourne and others are right on as far as beach erosion and high surf advisories along the east coasts of Florida by midweek. The models have been very consistent in bringing Isabel steadily toward the Bahamas then accelerating it toward the northwest by next Wed./Thu. (9/17-18). Everybody along the east coast needs to be watching this one, but I don't expect landfall south of New York. At this point, it looks like a transitioning strong cat 1 system speeding toward and thru the Cape Cod area by next Friday, 9/19 (imho).
These types of storms are a real nemesis for disaster response planners. Of course, with such a "nice-looking" system, it is interesting and sad to see how irresponsible and sensationalistic some news media outlets are becoming. However, as has been already noted here, the is doing a fantastic job with this cyclone.
Thank God that this cyclone is going over any populated areas at its peak strength. Makes for nice pictures and good satellite analysis practice.
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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The 5pm Update has it moving WNW at 10knts; the eye is 30NM Wide. Holy cow.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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The latest track is taking Isabel towards the mid Atlantic states as a category 3 hurricane! If this is true, it will be quite historic. More to come when products fully arrive...
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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I can't even IMAGINE trying to plan an evacuation for this storm. I'd just get on TV and say:
HEY! EVERYONE FROM NY TO FLORIDA: MOVE OVER 1 STATE TO YOUR WEST. SORRY ABOUT YOUR LUCK, CALIFORNIA.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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Jeff I can't quite folow that so could you give me something that would explain how a big dog like this is not going to bite us in FL or even the Carolinas?
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Good job, Frank!
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 13 2003 11:46 PM)
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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Oh, it will affect the entire east coast in some way. Like Melbourne said, beach erosion and high surf advisories can be expected, just like they have now in the northern Caribbean islands. I wouldn't be surprised to see tropical storm watches and warnings going up along the coasts of the Carolinas by Tuesday, just because the wind field is so large. What do you think?
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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The folks in CA are frightened out of their minds for me.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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From the 5pm Discussion:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/11. THIS MAY BE A SHORT-TERM ACCELERATION DUE TO THE EYE CONTRACTING DOWN IN SIZE AND RE-ADJUSTING WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE 285
DEGREES MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE A STEADY TREND. THE NEW 12Z FORECAST TRACK HAS COME IN ALMOST ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICAL
FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN IS LEFT OF THE TRACK BY 72 HOURS ...BEFORE HOOKING BACK ACROSS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND ACCELERATING ISABEL NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO IDENTICAL TO THE 12Z ETA MODEL RUN. SIMILARLY BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE THE ...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SHARP DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OR A STALL IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATING ISABEL NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 96 HOURS AS
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GET PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...SO IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT UNTIL ALL OF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDE DATA MAKE IT
INTO THE 14/00Z MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD ACCELERATION INDICATED AT 120 HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET. NOTE -- NONE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ISABEL OVER LAND BY 120 HOURS.
I think Isabel will still be out there on Halloween.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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I too would consider the need for watches on the coasts for beach erosion and killer waves. I would be so happy to have my house untouched that I am willing to give up the beach till they can rebuild it.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Then maybe you should fly out there, so you can watch it from really far away.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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RevUp
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 179
Loc: FL 28.43N 81.31W
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Colleen, you certainly know how to speak their language!
As another aside, I just came across this from S. Korea and can only think of what could be if Isabel were to move over any heavily populated areas.
"A typhoon lashed coastal South Korea with a fury unseen in a century, lifting shipping containers in the air, toppling gigantic cranes and flipping a cruise ship on its side. At least 62 people were killed and 25 missing ..."
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"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."
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SandiaFlower
Unregistered
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LOL good one Colleen.................the temptation is a great one. But I am no longer that 12 year old kid who got homesick at camp and wanted to leave early. I did find encouragment in your last post about a more northerly landfall.............would save the relations in SC.
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Colleen A.
Moderator
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
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Wow, Jeff! With the size she is now, if she does slow down and/or stall anywhere within a 200-mile radius, it's STILL gonna be ugly. Floyd took out the pier in JaxBeach and he was out at sea.
It is going to be an interesting week. A storm like Isabel is a beauty to look at...from 800 miles away. I don't even want to think what she could do sitting 100 miles off the coast of any state on the Eastern seaboard.
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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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Kimmie at home
Unregistered
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Colleen, it is so good to have you back, you add so much to the discussions. Seems like you are enjoying football as much as weather watching these days.
I admit that I have a lot to learn about these storms, and when I look at the satellite images and WV loops, I see a very enchanting lady, but, I can't tell where she will eventually go! So, I will leave it to the experts on this site and continue reading and learning.
I am waiting anxiously to read what Ed has to say about where Isabel may be heading, as his accuracy with forecasting is amazing. All of you guys in Florida are doing a great job of watching, and it is so hard to wait, but I am praying that Florida and the whole EC will only see her from afar.
Watching and waiting......Kimmie
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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Hey Colleen!! Ya haven't changed a bit! That's tellin' 'em!! Hey I might be in chat later at S2K or ECTWC; it'd be good to talk to ya! Yeah the key is still, is the trough deep enuf; is the ridge stronger than they know. Models don't pick up on the ridges in storms this powerful since they can raise heights to their NW. The plane should tell us, and if she doesn't stall that'll be another clue. Pretty sure she'll miss us, but if she gets within a 100 miles of us we'll feel her here on the east central coast. talk to ya later!! Cheers!!
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met
Unregistered
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hey colleen glad your back. is this hurricane awwsome or what. i think were watching history in the making. i lived in miami in the 60's and went thru many hurricanes. cant believe people as they have on here for 2 yrs. saying fla. is out of the woods when hurricanes are near this position. every storm is diff. history is good, but you cant go by that because conditions are always diff. weve talked before bout go by what you see in sat. photos not models. they are just a tool. i said on here few days ago that this hurr. may create its on enviroment and that throws all those models in the trash. plus i hear that high pressure is building back to the west. not much talk bout the bahamas, s.e. islands are bout 600 mi. west at. 5 pm i fear they are in great danger. i think it maybe getting stronger in the past few hours. dont you miss john hope i sure do, lyons is no john hope. i wish jim cantore on was handling the tropics you think it will turm more west tonite i think it will. warnings will be needed for bahamas prob. late sun. monday. glad your back. mark
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