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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Nate) , Major: 60 (Maria) Florida - Any: 70 (Irma) Major: 70 (Irma)
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Archives >> 2003 Storm Forum

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clyde w.
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
Isabel Landfall Prediction
      #13022 - Tue Sep 16 2003 10:36 PM

It now looks pretty imminent that we are less than 48 hours from a landfalling hurricane. I think its time to roll up our sleeves and give our best estimation of location and strength at landfall. As I see there is no Avery Island (a la Lili) option for me, here is my best guess on Isabel's future track:

Landfall: Cedar Island, NC, with secondary landfall at Bellhaven
Time: 2:00 pm, 9/18/03
Winds: 120mph

Anyone else care to wager a guess?


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Isabel Landfall Prediction
      #13036 - Wed Sep 17 2003 12:29 AM

why not. morehead city, carteret county.
13:30 local thu 18 september.
winds 100kt at landfall, min central pressure 951mb.


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Domino
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 191
Loc: Makati City, Philippines
Re: Isabel Landfall Prediction
      #13038 - Wed Sep 17 2003 01:46 AM

Okay I'm thinking its gonna go right of the projected and right up Chesapeake Bay. I'm gonna call for it to cross Cape Charles and Eastville at 1600 Local 18th September with a min pressure of 948 and winds of 105kt.

*note at the time of this posting my gut instinct was that Izzy is getting pushed out to sea and is gonna go spin fish till she is shorn apart. All the models say I'm wrong...and the closest to my guesticast is the BAMM...only positive thing is I was almost dead on the Izzy Challenge 2.


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jeff
Registered User


Reged: Wed
Posts: 2
Loc: del/pa
Re: Isabel Landfall Prediction
      #13047 - Wed Sep 17 2003 09:18 AM

i agree chesapeke bay i just feel like the gulf stream will have some northward pull on storm

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: Isabel Landfall Prediction
      #13050 - Wed Sep 17 2003 09:50 AM

jeff, ocean water doesn't pull weather. ocean currents have climatic effects, and can cause weather to vary at locales over large periods of time.. not a synoptic factor.

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