Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Until a well defined center is found it is not good to say that TD#16/Kate will be a fish because if the center is further south of past estimates then it may slide by the shear and get more favorable conditions and get more close to the leewards so from here in the islands we are watching.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Gotya Cyc, just wishing the best for the Islands. If I were in PR I would also be watching this one real close! At this point can't rule anything out. Have to consider all the what if's, why nots and maybe's.....
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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JustMe
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida 28.54N 81.39W
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Wondering what TD16 has in mind ....
Could be another interesting time.
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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i'll throw my hat in with the recurvature camp for t.d. 16. don't see it coming west. still slowly organizing, satelite signature doesn't suggest it being a tropical storm yet.. but expect it to be by later today.
juan.. ragged looking. doesn't look to be all subsidence.. it does have subtropical characteristics.. but they don't seem to be driving the train. think hurricane later today.. have to watch for baroclinic intensification that may counter the forecast shear as it moves north.
two other areas of note. western caribbean trending toward slow development.. no huge pressure falls, but visibles today will probably start showing some cyclonic turning in the windfield. dependent on the initial motion.. this may have time to organize in the caribbean, or move up fairly quickly as a weak system.. assuming it does organize.
the other area is over florida.. with the upper westerlies overhead it looks sort of frontal. amplification digging down should lift it up the east coast.. pumped ridging from juan should help hold whatever surface low it has in place. what this does varies by school of model.. some develop it almost baroclinically, some mostly ignore it. without a clear cut low the latter looks more likely at this point. time will tell.
HF 1300z26september
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Recurvature is the safe call on TD 16. did discuss the possibility that the LLC is further south and if so could cause it to move west under the weak ridge south of the oncoming front. This should shake out in next 24 hours. TD16 is going fishin if anyone wants my opinion, but who would.
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Jara
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I'm gonna go with Jara & HF on Kate (TD 16). She will become a hurricane (might even get named by 5:00 if not 11:00 am), only to spin the fishes. As for Juan, I'll bet on Hurricane status today...but barely...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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from postings, looks like TD 16 is still a t.d., though getting better organized... and that juan is nearing hurricane strength.
twd isnt out yet, but i'd bet they'll have interesting comments on both other potential systems. early visible shots have me thinking a low is developing off the north coast of honduras.. and the trough over florida has a pressure min. and a sharpening look off the east coast of the state. should either develop a closed low, we could have t.d. 17 on our hands as well as juan and future kate.
HF 1437z26september
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Juan is now a Hurricane. Kate hasn't yet been named...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Yep, TD 16 soon to be Kate is definetly headed for the fish, already close to 16 latitude and heading NW, will be a concern to ships only. Of more concern is the area in the NW Carib off of Honduras, looks like a LLC may be trying to form and looking at the steering winds it could be drawn NW then N. Fla. should keep a eye on this system., interesting times ahead?
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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FRom the 11am:
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED BETWEEN
HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND...IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
Looks like the models were on to something. With favorable conditions in the West Carribean and little tropical activity to churn the warm waters (mid to high 80s). I wonder if this may develop quickly once and if a LLC develops.
This discussion also reaffirms that TD16 is swimming with the fish. Noticed has TD16 listed as 16L.noname but no upgrade at 11am.
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Jara
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Edited by stormchazer (Fri Sep 26 2003 11:55 AM)
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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New 90L Invest for the NW Carib.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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garyb
Weather Guru
Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
National Hurricane Center NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902003) ON 20030926 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
030926 1800 030927 0600 030927 1800 030928 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 84.2W 19.5N 85.2W 21.2N 85.8W 22.9N 85.7W
BAMM 18.0N 84.2W 19.3N 85.4W 20.7N 86.2W 21.9N 86.8W
A98E 18.0N 84.2W 19.1N 84.7W 20.3N 85.0W 21.5N 84.9W
LBAR 18.0N 84.2W 19.4N 84.5W 21.2N 84.8W 23.6N 84.7W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 40KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
030928 1800 030929 1800 030930 1800 031001 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.6N 84.8W 28.8N 78.3W 31.3N 67.1W 28.4N 63.2W
BAMM 22.7N 87.4W 24.1N 88.6W 25.3N 89.7W 25.7N 90.1W
A98E 22.3N 84.7W 23.3N 84.3W 23.8N 84.2W 24.0N 83.9W
LBAR 25.8N 83.6W 31.4N 76.7W 33.8N 67.9W 33.2N 62.7W
SHIP 47KTS 52KTS 42KTS 22KTS
DSHP 47KTS 52KTS 42KTS 22KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 84.2W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.9N LONM12 = 83.7W DIRM12 = 335DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 82.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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scottsvb
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1085
Loc: fl
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well my 2nd miss of the season is Juan. I never expected him to become a hurricane and some data suggest he isnt but Ill go with the miss from the . I didnt expect Juan to be more then 60mph and looking at sat data it only shows winds near that , but pressures are near 985mb supporting a 75-80mph hurricane. I expect weakning during the next couple days as he becomes slowly and moves to Nova scotia as previously forcasted. Everything else right on target, TD16 having some tuff times but should make it up to T.S. strength in next 24 hours or so, but will move in trackwith the avn model and be no threat to the carribean Islands.
Possible TD17 is on schedule for tomorrow and the might dispatch a plane out to investiage the area. Canadian model totally backed off (as i thought) from the 989mb low. But not to say it might take off and be that eventually. Hard to pinpoint on this what it might do. Should miss the 1st trough and move slowly, but with turns N-W-NE in time crossing Fla with the timing of the 2nd trough. Too early to tell on strength or movement really. scottsvb
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Part of Florida Keys area discussion from this afternoon:
MEANWHILE...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS BY MONDAY.
TG
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Juan forecasted to strengthen slightly, looks like Halifax better start preparing....TD 16 still a TD, but forecast to become TS Kate by Saturday...she will spin fishes...Gulf needs to be watched closely...pressures falling.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Looking at the loops, trailing and just southeast of TD16 there appears to be a twist of loose convection. I seem to recall some models developing a second Low after TD16.
The Carribean is started to show some signs of outflow though the convection may be waning a bit.
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Jara
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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This from Accuweather:
"A large area of disturbed weather remains in the western Caribbean Friday. Moisture has already been drawn up across Florida; yesterday, some reporting stations had over 2.00 inches of rain. Whether or not any kind of tropical low comes out of this remains to be seen, but it will be the source of wet weather for the southeastern United States, Florida in particular, over the next several days. There is also an area of low pressure forming east of Florida Friday afternoon that bears watching. Although it probably will not become a tropical cyclone, it should spread showers and thunderstorms over the Carolina coastline over the next 24 hours." 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Coop, if your out there Cooper needs your in-put.....Can't hold the GOM off much longer. Things are starting to heat up around here don't ya know!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1299
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Latest IR and Vis GOES sat loop sure hints of a circulation center at ~18.0N and 83.9W in the western caribbean. Circulation appears to be in the mid levels and perhaps the surface as well... system is moving slowing off to the NW.... best guess would be 10 mph. With all the fronts expected during the next several days across the northern Gulf Coast, one would expect this system to be an impact to the central florida area.... at what intensity remains to be seen....
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Hey Frank,the overall area in the W. Carib. has expanded but the deeper convection is decreasing, at least for now. Seems to be the norm with our systems this season at this time of the day. No doubt the spin is there and looks like a real possibility for development. Will be interested to see how it makes it thru the night and what it looks like on vis. tomorrow. Was hoping not to hear Central Florida but sure looks possible. Bobbi mentioned the possibility of S. Florida this morning, looks like they might get a piece of the pie here also. As far as intensity goes can only personally go on what I have seen from this area, those systems that head toward Florida Pen. usually have a somwhat lopsided appearance. Will be watching to see what this one looks like if it indeed does develop future.
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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