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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 2913
Loc: Orlando, FL 28.49N 81.47W
Tropical Storm "Leisure" Larry Forms in the Bay of Campeche
      #13570 - Wed Oct 01 2003 08:31 PM

What better way for Larry to relax, than near the beaches of Mexico? Or more precisely the bay of Campeche. Not the best place for a storm to form for the nerves of Gulf Residents. I say relax, because it doesn't want to move anytime soon.

Recon aircraft has been hunting for a center in this disturbance for a while, and it found one, large enough to jump it striaght to a Tropical Storm. And judging by the situation around it, Larry isn't going anywhere anytime soon. The steering currents are extremely weak around it. Larry could be there for days. The hurricane center suggests it may move westward, but still anywhere along the western Gulf should be on the lookout. Strengthening may be gradual, but if it stays stationary it will hurt its chances at growing stronger. The rest of the Gulf would be prudent to watch as well.



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Current Aircraft Recon Info

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Edited by MikeC (Wed Oct 01 2003 08:39 PM)


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LI Phil
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Reged: Fri
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm "Leisure" Larry Forms in the Bay of Campeche
      #13577 - Wed Oct 01 2003 09:52 PM

Hey Jason: Is Larry going to come east towards PCB?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Tropical Storm "Leisure" Larry Forms in the Bay of Campeche
      #13578 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:01 PM

I was just comparing the Dvorak images between Kate and Larry and I am not an expert by anyone's imagination, but I thought that the visual comparisons were not only remarkably similar, but that maybe Larry was showing even more strengthening characteristics than Kate who is classified as a hurricane at least on our board. Can anyone else see this or is it time to rest my eyes?

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Tropical Storm "Leisure" Larry Forms in the Bay of Campeche
      #13579 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:02 PM

You tell me and we will both know.
Too early to tell...I think the key would be the amount of strengthening...if Larry would strengthen significantly, the that might impart a more poleward motion, which would then get him caught up in the strong westerlies to his north and head him our way. I believe that this is what the modeling that does send him our way is doing. If significant strengthening does not occur, he just meanders into old Mexico.

All speculation on my part...we'll see.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Tropical Storm "Leisure" Larry Forms in the Bay of Campeche
      #13580 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:07 PM

Fair points, Jason. Way too early to speculate...

BUT, if Larry were to strengthen and head east, based on climatology, meterology, water temps, etc., how strong could he get? Is he a potential MAJOR threat to the gulf?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Wed Oct 01 2003 10:08 PM)


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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City Beach, FL 30.22N 85.86W
Re: Tropical Storm "Leisure" Larry Forms in the Bay of Campeche
      #13581 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:20 PM

Models are models but this bothers me.... no globals I have seen does anything sure without splitting off, otherwise it flys to MX. The tropical runs albeit a "spider" all have the same basic idea now??? I was wrong last night... never thought we would see "Larry" out of this Like JK said on the tube..kinda 50/50. We will see.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2012 11/5/2


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wxman007
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 617
Loc: Tuscaloosa, AL 30.18N 85.77W
Re: Tropical Storm "Leisure" Larry Forms in the Bay of Campeche
      #13582 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:20 PM

Water temps are adequate for significant strengthening. If he does get into the westerlies this would likely inhibit further strengthening due to shear. Could Larry become a major? Yeah, he could...but at this point, with the current very limited data set, it's not a likelyhood, in my mind.

--------------------
Jason Kelley


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Storm "Leisure" Larry Forms in the Bay of Campeche
      #13583 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:21 PM

All the bouys close to shore 75-100 miles out reporting 77-80 degree temps.The bouys out in the Gulf 82.4 avg.looks like.It sure would have to get cranked up to impact with a punch or come in quick.

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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Storm "Leisure" Larry Forms in the Bay of Campeche
      #13584 - Wed Oct 01 2003 10:32 PM

Hey Jason is it my imagination but the trogh looks to be getting thin over Fl and part of the Gulf.On both the IF and WV it looks like it to me anyway.Will this not possibily weaken the shear some later till the next front comes.

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
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Loc: South Florida
IF it goes East....
      #13585 - Wed Oct 01 2003 11:48 PM

someone asked a question...how strong could it get?

well...it will have a lot of running room ...IF it goes east...

saw norcross on tv tonight around 5...was obvious he was in agreement tho less vocal with it being Larry..

Interesting questions out there...arent there?

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
kate/larry
      #13586 - Thu Oct 02 2003 12:20 AM

kate whipping wsw between an upper low to the south and a building ridge to the north, probably on its way to being a fairly strong hurricane (perhaps intense in a couple of days). models grouping more around the recurvature idea.. assuming it deepens that would be the likely scenario. if it weakens further west then it could be more of a drifting, meandering kyle-type system.. the forecast track is odd enough by itself (entire path/forecast path looks like an inchworm).
larry quasi-stationary, center broad and probably oscillating towards convective bursts. no steady CDO for now.. larry will probably continue to slowly organize. like everybody is saying, the solution is largely dependent on how strong larry can get. a stronger system will probably come north to menace the gulf coast, a weaker one will probably stay south. note that by october, with fronts having cleared the gulf coast.. it is unlikely that a very powerful hurricane can hit the gulf coast anywhere but the peninsular florida this late in the season. with the current and projected synoptic pattern, if larry comes north it probably won't be intense when/if it might reach the u.s.
there's no way of knowing how things will develop at this point. my arbitrary bet is mexico, but i reserve the right to change that if larry starts deepening.. then the Opal contingency comes into play.
HF 0421z02october


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: kate/larry
      #13587 - Thu Oct 02 2003 04:26 AM

an ill timed fire alarm has kept me unhappily awake since about 2:40 AM, back inside i've noticed that the eclipse period for the goes 12 is past, and kate and larry are both looking much improved. NRL has a t.s. nora in the eastpac.. the depression has matured (maybe more atlantic activity in a few days in response). 00Z runs keeping larry near mexico, in the southern gulf, and recurving kate east of bermuda. interestingly NOGAPS has a system developing in the western caribbean once the upper trough there splits and ridging builds in north of panama.. by early next week. this may be the one bastardi was vouching for earlier.. development will be watched. various models also suggesting something in kate's wake (either from a piece of wave energy from the south, or an extratropical low from the northeast) and cyclogenesis of what appears to be nontropical nature off the east coast by early next week as well.
maybe just kate and larry, maybe some company?
well, have to work all afternoon after class.. better get to sleep.
HF 0826z02october


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: IF it goes East....
      #13588 - Thu Oct 02 2003 06:12 AM

Hey Bobbi, looks like from where I'm sitting your back yard should be in much better shape than it was a few days ago. Had a few days of some isolated rain here but nothing to be concerned about. Then there's good ole Larry out there taking his sweet time trying to get his act together. Convection looking respectable this morning. Guess larry could be having a few days of siesta time! Actually doesn't sound too bad,should consider that myself... still up in the air where he is going to go, sounds like there is a good possibility that he could meet his fate right where he's hanging out now. Noticed in this mornings discussion that he could strenghten some as he sits there. My question this morning to you guys is how common is that for a system that is stationary to intensify, given this particular situation?

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


Edited by 57497479 (Thu Oct 02 2003 06:14 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Re: IF it goes East....
      #13589 - Thu Oct 02 2003 07:38 AM

Thanks

Interesting cloud patterns overhead due to it all...multi layered mixed seasonal bag of clouds

like you cant decide it winter is on its way or another impulse of tropical summer

Hope Larry puts out a press release when he decides what he is going to do

Oh... I get it.. Larry KNOWS... we are the ones trying to figure it out


--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: Sooo Where's Mo and Curly?
      #13590 - Thu Oct 02 2003 07:53 AM

It seems by the satellite I see this morning that Larry is not real obvious in all the blue colors in the Gulf. I really wish the colorized would not colorize anything except the storm and not its surrounding muck, But you cant have everything I suppose.

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Sooo Where's Mo and Curly?
      #13592 - Thu Oct 02 2003 09:41 AM

Looks like some pulsing going on this morning and a drift a little south. Larry will probably drift every direction before its done. Closer it gets to the coast the less it would develop I would think. T-number still good as of this morning:

02/1145 UTC 20.7N 93.3W T2.5/2.5 LARRY

Steve, is Joe B holding to his North Gulf Coast hit?

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Sooo Where's Mo and Curly?
      #13593 - Thu Oct 02 2003 10:39 AM

>>Steve, is Joe B holding to his North Gulf Coast hit?

Yeah. He's not deviating from it at all. His idea is Opal-esque vs. Roxanne-esqe which so many others are biting on.

I'm not posting a cut and paste today but he really (and probably more than ever) has stated his case for why the subjectivity in naming is bullcrap and serves to confuse the public forcing them back to the NHC/TPC when a conventional naming system based on reality should be employed. In other words, if it quacks like a duck, has feathers, webbed feet...

He's made that argument countless times before, but I've never seen him do it at this level. Often I'll post that he's going bonkers, but this is the rant of all rants. It's worth signing up for the 30 day free trial just to read it. It's not vitriolic in any way, but you can see he really held back what he wanted to say.
-----------------------------------------------------
Anyway, his thoughts are that it will meander and by Saturday probably will be a 90MPH hurricane (pressure sub-985). His wildcard is the ULL over the caribbean which could hold a high in place.

His reasoning for why he thinks it's going Opal is really well thought out and far different from what all the other professional (tv and web mets) are saying. I'll say this, if he ends up pulling this thing off from Monday, I will defend him anywhere anyone takes him on. Obviously he sees the potentail for the Roxanne maneuver or he wouldn't mention it. But he's sticking with his call for now (with the above noted wildcard thrown in).

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: Sooo Where's Mo and Curly?
      #13595 - Thu Oct 02 2003 11:26 AM

speaking of Opal.... opal have we seen the first part of this track before??

Edited by andy1tom (Thu Oct 02 2003 11:28 AM)


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
Mo and Curly?
      #13596 - Thu Oct 02 2003 11:42 AM

Agreed STeve on Bastardi.. excellent discussion today. Excellent...would have been too long to post but well stated and not so much of a rant in my opinon as a clear cut case for the naming debate... a debate in my opinon there is not answer to because the naming is always subjective and follows no pattern or logic when a system is in the Gulf especially.. other areas as well.

There was a front in the area?
Yeah... there always is in October..

See what happens with the track..very interesting to watch and agreed... he will have amazing credibility if he pulls this off.

What btw does Mo and Curly have to do with anything here .. oh haha I get it Larry.. sorry, didn't watch the movie...

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/

Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 02 2003 08:57 PM)


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Shear lessened
      #13597 - Thu Oct 02 2003 01:39 PM

My comment last night might be coming true .Appeared last night tkat the clouds over FL and the Gulf were getting thin.This morning I was wondering maybe wrong but in the last 6 hrs the shear to the N has dropped alot.Larry looks to be spinning a little quicker this afternoon.Might be possible for Larry to start pulling in some more energy from the rest of the Gulf now have to wait and see.

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