HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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its more of a set table than a threat at this point.. watch the northern part of the disturbed weather... some ridging aloft.
19L may be held down at t.d. status as it has multiple-center issues and is popping out of the , but overall trending upward in organization. global runs today by and large taking it more westward, more in line with some of the earlier thinking.
HF 1827z14october
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Looking at some models this afternoon:
BAMM/BAMD: Generally take the system to the west-northwest, followed by a more westward curve towards the north Lesser Antilles.
GFDL/UKMET: Both models turn the system towards the north, then more (UKMET) or less (GFDL) turn it more westerly. LBAR, and A98E are highly unreliable and outdated in general. LBAR recurves the system, while A98E carries it towards Martinique/Dominica.
AVN: http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi?time=2003101412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
AVN now takes system to the west as well, along with a ridge building atop of it. I think we may see some changes in 'S 5 PM package.
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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The system got honorable mention on the weather news locally. They were saying hurricane in late forecasting period but was saying it was too soon to know how or if it would effect the Islands or any land mass. I guess every one has Mitch and others on their minds that were low latitude storms.
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Since the Globals are indicating that the brakes could be put on the northern motion due to a high building over the Central Atlantic, I can't help but ask the question, just how far west could this system ride under the high? Let's say if and I mean a big IF, he should get to the Islands and even further west, would that not make this a whole new ballgame? Would like to hear thoughts on this... 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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yeah, it would be a different ballgame. climo is totally against it, and the system doesn't exactly have an ideal environment to work in.. but yeah, in another week it could be near the islands.
HF 2328z14october
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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The question is if the second trough will grab it to the north or it stays relative weak and move more west but we will know in a few days as this is moving slowly and will take it's time to make his mind about where he will go.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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I asked this rhetorical on another board today and I will throw it out there for your digestion. Is it possible that this system makes it into the Carribean and becomes the system the models have hinted at for the upcoming days?
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Jara
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Unregistered User
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The models are all over the place, and have changed every 6 hours in most cases. Nobody has memtion this but TD19 just may die out in Mid Altantic late in the season anything can happen.
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Ed Dunham
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2090
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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It took awhile, but we finally have a Tropical Storm. A short 24 hours ago the storm was projected to get no further west than 44W and now its projected to 49W - and it should eventually get further west than that. An unusual storm in a year that had quite a few unusual storms. No change in my earlier thoughts - northern islands still need to keep a wary eye on this one - its certainly not your typical October storm (if there is such a thing).
Cheers,
ED
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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So I guess we're at 14/6/3 or 14/7/3 now. I had 14/8/4 for the year I think. I was leaning toward weak La Nina conditions, but they never really materialized. There were some cool tongues in the Eastern Pacific, but they were more than offset by the westerly zones. The Pacific ended up overall neutral through the heart of the season, and is projected that way in the latest 8 month outlook released at the end of Septmeber. One of the models is even trending warm by May. We'll have to wait and see how the hints on 2004 keep breaking.
As to current action, I've only looked at Nicholas once so far. I'll have to check him out a little more closely now that there's an unknown threat potential.
Some of today's earlier models wanted to tug at some EPAC action from the north with a pretty deep trof. 1 in 10 shot some of that moisture gets drawn back into Mexico in the next few days.
SOI went positive October 2nd, and the 15 day lag time for eastern trofiness is about here. We had a dry cold front blast through tonight. It's not /that/ cold, some fall air, but it looks like the timing is pretty good. It went down to neutral-negative 10/7 and took a couple of days to go mildly positive. So maybe there's a 5-6 day trof influence for parts of the Eastern US say til around the 22nd then a 4 day steep negative followed by trending neutral approaching Haloween. We'll have to see how Nicholas progresses and whether or not the provided an early hint as to movement after 5-6 days.
SST's remain mostly + in the Atlantic Basin except in the Western Caribbean (probably temporary).
ENSO Outlook
Hi-res SST's
SOI Index
Peace,
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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My question last night was how far west could Nick actually get if he were to get under the ridge. This mornings question in their 5am discussion is how far north can NIck get before he rides the ridge toward the west. That is the better question as far as the Islands are concerned... The Globals and Regionals continue to support a stronger ridge as the shortwave moves out in the next couple of days. If this indeed happens then the next question should be what islands is going to be in his path? I guess that question is still up in the air as the is in ? as to where the center actually is. That could make a big difference to the Islands down the road... Also looking like Nick's intensity could be a problem down the road also!
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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The big question is where is the center of Nicholas because where it is may have big implications in terms of the future track is concerned and if the islands will be treatened or not.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
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nicholas is interacting with disturbances to it's east and west. to the east.. this is possibly the system the models were pulling up in tandem with nicholas. i don't think it's going to develop or draw the storm up.. just pivot nw behind the tropical storm. to the west is an embedded vortmax that will probably act to draw nicholas against the sw shear infringing on the storm. right now there's a poorly stacked feature.. which may decouple or persist.. either way this will produce joggy movement in the short term. if nicholas deepens more it will move more poleward prior to the ridging to the north recharging.. if it decouples it may move mostly westward even without much ridging to the north.
nothing else in the basin has much of a shot at development. western carib system is mostly onshore and more likely to be an eastpac system down the road than the late season north-mover we've yet to see.
cutoff low sw of the azores is actually under decent conditions, but isnt firing any more convection.. probably nothing. nicholas may be the last named storm of the season.. but i doubt it right now.
HF 1736z15october
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Seems to me as if Nicholas has been moving to the due west over the course of the above sat. loop. In fact, it even looks like there could be a wsw motion, but that is probably just the convection playing eye tricks on me. 
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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It sure looks like its moving due westward right now but I think the SW appearance is and illusion do to the twist of the storm and the outflow. I'll be interested to see the 6 hr movements since the 11am Update.
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Jara
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Kevin, yeah, looking at that loop Nicholas does appear to move west...interesting. The global models all trend this NW or even NNW, while the tropical models are all over the place, the outliers being the CLIPER which take it directly through the islands towards PR, and the LBAR, which takes it almost true north than due east. Obviously, there is much uncertainty with the strength and movement. Hurricane Alley offers this on the storm:
"As of 2 pm CDT 10/15...
NICHOLAS is slowly strenghtening ......
Strength ...
Nicholas is a tropical storm. The process of strengthening is going to be in one of two scenarios. If the circulation center is truly under, or relocates under the deepest convection, then hurricane status is achievable rather quickly. If the shear continues to keep the surface center to the edge of the convection, then the hurricane achievement will be slow to occur. In either case, the system should attain hurricane status at some point.
Movement ...
The motion of the storm is still hard to be sure of. The system should begin to turn more northwest and then north. The trough that was expected to begin the recurvature process has already passed by to the north, and a small ridge is north of the storm. But this ridge is weak and will be pushed out by the larger, stronger trough to the west. This is the same one that caught Mindy. This trough also has a good chance of "missing" Nicholas, at least enough so that total recurvature does not happen. After that, the next chance my well not come until after the system has at least made a run at the northern Leeward Islands. "
Time will tell...Go Yankees!!!
And Kevin, you look an awful lot like Jon Gruden... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Nicholas is a very aristocratic name, royal, and highly romanticized. Hopefully it will not gain the notariety of Andrew. 
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
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Last three T-Numbers:
15/1745 UTC 12.2N 44.4W T3.0/3.5 NICHOLAS
15/1145 UTC 12.1N 42.9W T3.5/3.5 NICHOLAS
15/0545 UTC 11.7N 43.0W T3.0/3.0 NICHOLAS
Note the Lat/Long coordinates. Not much northward movement in last 6 hours.
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Jara
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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In reply to:
And Kevin, you look an awful lot like Jon Gruden...{/quote]
lmao
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
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Will we make it to Hurricane Pat?
(maybe in 2006)
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
Edited by Ed Dunham (Thu Oct 16 2003 06:00 AM)
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