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Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 19 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3194 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
14.0N 56.0W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1012mb
Moving:
W at 25 mph
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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1211
Loc: South Florida
for Tropics Guy
      #13794 - Tue Oct 21 2003 03:02 PM

Ummm... I'm thinking. Just checking in. Watching.

Surprised at how much Nicholas blew up today.. and looking at the models (nogaps) and I'm thinking..

I'll give my thoughts later... but I'm paying attention.

At this point I would like to see Florida get hit by something just so we don't have to listen to Bastardi re-evaluate and re-analyze where he was wrong.. would be easier to just take a hit



--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
nicholas persists, carib
      #13795 - Tue Oct 21 2003 03:15 PM

nicholas: forecast models very divergent again.. my take is that it is going to stay alive a few more days, and that it isn't going up and out like models have been saying for days. some have it going partway up and turning back, some have a gentle bend to the west. either way, expect a few more days of this slow moving storm. SOI has flat ridging forecast for the weekend, so if it hasnt gone out by then, it will be moving west again.
low in the western caribbean seems to be going ashore in nicaragua.. not end of story though. wave to the east and flow across panama is still generating enough broad low pressure, and the westerlies are backing up and generating lots of convection north of colombia. think low pressure will consolidate south of jamaica next few days and loiter.. slowly organizing. still think development solutions are too fast.. until we see it starting then there's no point on speculating where it could go. mean steering flow will alternate between sw, s, se, and east over the next few days.. lots of compass points, probably erratic movement early on for any developing system.
HF 1914z21october


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2263
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: nicholas persists, carib
      #13796 - Tue Oct 21 2003 08:31 PM

Short update on Nicholas in the Storm Forum. Others have covered the SW Caribbean quite well - anything down there will take a long time to cook!

There is also a Typhoon of interest - highlighted in the Other Basins Forum. Hurricane Patricia in the EASTPAC is growing stronger and may head for Mexico in a few days.
Cheers,
ED


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: nicholas persists, carib
      #13797 - Tue Oct 21 2003 10:50 PM

Lots of recurvatures on the horizon. Parma and Ketsana off Japan are both anticipated to recurve. Both will be initially slow. Parma is probably a non-signal, but Ketsana telegraphs a trof in the eastern US in 6-10 days. SOI conflicts slightly with only days 7, 8, 9 and 10 at neutral. Perhaps there will be a gentle trof or something.

Both Westpac storms are pretty slow at first, but particularly Ketsana.

My take? Long term implications are pretty much clouded. WAY outside chance of maybe a south Florida hit or storm moving out to sea just east of FL? Time will tell.

98 West is pretty odd out in the Westpac. You don't see storms develop there every day (see NRL home page for more details).

SW Caribbean still has that witches' brew look to it. I guess that's appropriate coming up on Halloween.

Staying tuned for now.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: nicholas persists, carib
      #13798 - Wed Oct 22 2003 11:35 AM

Judging from the TWO, it appears that the NHC is getting more and more interested in the feature in the Carribean.

--------------------
Jara

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
fun starts friday
      #13800 - Wed Oct 22 2003 07:00 PM

may actually be tomorrow, but i'm aiming for friday for the disturbance in the caribbean to become a depression. low center seems to be evolving near 14/81.. not as broad as yesterday, not as elongated a windfield either. getting fairly certain that development is on the horizon. not ready to speculate on movement until a more defined system forms, but ready to say at first it should move erratically and perhaps drift NE.
nicholas is on the way out again, it seems. barring another convective fireworks show like the one it put up yesterday, probably on the slide. modeling has been variously retaining the system and phasing it with the trough moving to position in N-S fashion in the central atlantic. it may find a way to persist, but this is not a great likelihood.
over in the eastpac patricia changed its tune overnight and began losing its good convective signature... and is continuing west. how this will affect the upstream caribbean weather i don't know.. but no huge hurricane going up into mexico will alter the upper flow in the western caribbean.. look for a continue of the westerly jet, i suppose.
westpac activity suddenly booming.. thats our next MJO pulse.. due to arrive in early november if the basin has any charge left in it.
HF 2300z22october


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Mary K.
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
Re: fun starts friday
      #13801 - Wed Oct 22 2003 08:25 PM

HF, Would this happen to be the feature that JB has been hawking to attack Florida? I know something is amiss because of the way my animals have been acting the last 24 hours. My reticent cats are beginning to pick on the alpha cats, and my birds were yaking away in the dark last night and usually the only time they do that is when we have an earthquake relatively close by, or extremely high on the Rictcher(sp) scale, like a 7 + in any country

--------------------
weather is all you can count on, good or bad.


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: fun starts friday
      #13802 - Wed Oct 22 2003 10:23 PM

Hank Frank a question to you about the caribbean low. Do you think that this system may track NE or east like Lenny did in 99 because there will be a big trough that will exit the US.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: fun starts friday
      #13803 - Thu Oct 23 2003 09:08 AM

The bigger question is whether this will develop at all. The low is pretty close to land and the environment for it to develop in is small. There is a very strong Jet north of 15 degrees. The main thing is how long it will sit. If it stays there another 3-5 days then we may have something to threaten Florida or the Eastern GOM.

--------------------
Jara

*************************************************************


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: fun starts friday
      #13804 - Thu Oct 23 2003 05:23 PM

hmmm.. no closer today. still an elongated system, focal point at the southern end just north of panama, perhaps another bit of energy up near hispaniola. either can close off a low.. at the moment its a long trough with vorticity maxes. it can stay like this for days.. figured on friday, will stick with that.. but low confidence. globals have generally backed off a bit (though euro now has something developing in a few days, which it previously lacked). would have to be a deep system to do a lenny, and the upper jet would have to stay put (pattern SHOULD evolve into something else).
note that as of 5pm NHC is done with nicholas.. may be precocious, but its probably gone finally.
another odd outside chance of a system: globals like something back near the cape verdes. too late in the season, but if the trend persists....
HF 2122z23october


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: fun starts friday
      #13805 - Thu Oct 23 2003 06:56 PM

Speaking of upstream, looks like generally warm conditions might persist for a while. Here are the last 4 days of SOI:

20-Oct-2003 1012.30 1011.55 -13.80 -3.03 -1.04
21-Oct-2003 1009.70 1011.40 -29.60 -3.37 -1.30
22-Oct-2003 1010.48 1011.15 -22.90 -3.84 -1.56
23-Oct-2003 1010.90 1011.15 -20.20 -4.34 -1.86

I don't know if that will translate well, but absurdly cold air doesn't appear to be in the offing for the first couple of weeks of November.

TPS

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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k___g
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 108
Loc: Orlando 28.51N 81.38W
Re: Nicholas Drifts North
      #13806 - Fri Oct 24 2003 10:32 AM

Any thoughts concerning the area south of Hispanola? Can hardly stand this board being sooooooo quiet......... Good weekend to all.......

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stormchazer
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida 27.92N 82.00W
Re: Nicholas Drifts North
      #13807 - Fri Oct 24 2003 10:54 AM

Invest 95L named for south of Haiti.

--------------------
Jara

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Is the 2003 season over?
      #13808 - Sat Oct 25 2003 10:23 AM

Ummm 24 hours this forum has been quiet means no activity but will there more action before november 30th? Time will tell what may happen but I dont see nothing even in the caribbean that may form into something in the near future.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
nothing doing
      #13809 - Sat Oct 25 2003 12:32 PM

had an invest pop up friday.. and move quickly ashore over hispaniola. nothing closed off in the SW caribbean, that area remained a broad trough and broke down. there is yet more convection blooming there today.. however the flow across central america from the pacific isn't generating good surface convergence, and the northerly flow has also cut off as the trough has moved east and the next approaches.
right now looks like chances nicholas will break off from its the front it merged with and reacquire tropical characteristics are higher than another system developing in the next few days.
HF 1631z25october


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57497479
Weather Master


Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
Re: nothing doing
      #13810 - Sat Oct 25 2003 03:25 PM

Looks like conditions are just not right for development in the Caribbean. Opportunity is slowly slipping away for this season. If nothing happens in the next couple of weeks, then I think we are shut down until next season. Really was optimistic! Was hoping for 1 more system ...

--------------------
TONI


All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism

My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK 51.81N 2.51W
Nicholas making a subtropical comeback?
      #13813 - Mon Oct 27 2003 03:47 PM

Hey guys,
just been looking at the latest visible imagery from the GHCC pages... and i can clearly see a well defined LLCC located near 25N 64W. This is a baroclinic low on the same front that absorbed Nicholas. According to the TWD from NHC, the centre of what was Nicholas is much further east, near 26N 54W. However, the NHC have indicated that both low pressure centres may merge, and there is the chance of subtropical cyclone formation. Given the well defined LLCC located further west, this seems quite possible, as the remnant low of Nicholas is already producing gale force winds in the northern semicircle.

Any thoughts?

Additionally, feel free to take a look at the redesigned CMI website , including the new 'CMI ActiveAlerts' service

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Models predict neutral ENSO but by late spring el nino will return
      #13814 - Mon Oct 27 2003 06:42 PM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

What kind of repercussions this will have on the 2004 hurricane season it is too early to say but one thing is certain.If el nino predicted is a strong one then the 2004 season will not be so active so let's watch in the comming months the equatorial pacific to see how strong el nino will get by next summer.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: Models predict neutral ENSO but by late spring el nino will return
      #13815 - Mon Oct 27 2003 10:06 PM

For just how many months in a row has the CPC model predicted warm conditions that never materialized? And until we get more model support, I'm not buying the solutions of an El Nino just yet.

In addition...are there any strong signals from the Pacific that we are going to see any significant change in the next few months? Nope. And once spring has passed, the chances for El Nino development are usually nil.


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA 30.00N 90.14W
Re: Models predict neutral ENSO but by late spring el nino will return
      #13816 - Tue Oct 28 2003 12:09 PM

As of the September update, there was only one model trending warm. What I'd bet is that it cools a bit in the western zones (neutral to la nina) and warms a bit in the eastern zones (neutral to el nino) for a slight reversal of what we saw this year. Very interesting. I highly doubt a full blown El Nino year (ala 1997) would follow an essentially neutral pattern like we're in now.

As for fans of mega cold, you ain't getting it in Dixie. SOI has stayed negative for several days. Following the return to neutral by 15 days, we got a cool front in here for 1 day. It's supposed to be back in the 80's by tomorrow - hopefully to stay. The type of pattern we are in (and it's for at least 8 of 9 days + 15 day lag time) would say that we're going to stay warm at least until November 12th as it stands now. This pattern also can be condusive to development in the WC if anything gets down there. Yesterday's front though, seems to have swept that area clean and into Florida for now.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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