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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 896
Loc: parrish,fl 27.53N 82.44W
Re: NOT A TEST.. TD AL19
      #13857 - Fri Oct 31 2003 02:33 PM

So I was wondering why the NHC had not called me and offerred, but hey what do I know any way?...I think they called this early because of the threat potential and need the METS to strart umping this thing...the model numbers are sure divergent.and further North than advertised. EDS.

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doug


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: NOT A TEST.. TD AL19
      #13858 - Fri Oct 31 2003 02:57 PM

Gary B: re: the fact that the tropical model runs call it a TD, and not a test run, that's been the case all along (i.e., on all tropical model runs), and doesn't indicate any change of thought. Look back at the 28th, 29th, and 30th runs.

Doug: although the tropical models are pretty far north (and the LBAR basically out to sea or stalling west), aren't all (or at least most) of the global models pretty tightly packed, going more or less through the straits/over the Keys?


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: NOT A TEST.. TD AL19
      #13859 - Fri Oct 31 2003 02:58 PM

I mean "stalling EAST," not west (i.e. out in the Atlantic) re: LBAR.

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garyb
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
Re: NOT A TEST.. TD AL19
      #13860 - Fri Oct 31 2003 03:15 PM

Thanks Brad, I jumped the gun a little

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Four Model Runs
      #13861 - Fri Oct 31 2003 03:22 PM

Tropical Models

Global Models

Regional Models

Ensemble Models

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
If it develops what name will it be Nicholas or Odette?
      #13862 - Fri Oct 31 2003 03:23 PM

There is some confusion about what name it will be if it develops.If that circulation is from the old Nicholas then IMO it will be named Nicholas but if a new low forms then it would be Odette but let's wait for it to form first.

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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: If it develops what name will it be Nicholas or Odette?
      #13863 - Fri Oct 31 2003 05:40 PM

the old nicholas vorticity max became very obscure in the larger area of low pressure a couple days ago.. whether the current dominant vortex in what is still being tagged 19L is in fact the original nicholas is iffy at best. but, the tag is being kept.. so even though NHC has a history of renaming systems when they lose that much definition (iris to manuel in 2001 as it crossed into the eastpac and another vorticity center seemed to take over).. this may again be nicholas.
it hasn't actually redeveloped yet, and i'm not absolutely certain that it will... making a decent show but not organizing very quickly right now.
HF 2239z31october


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