Loc: Cary, NC
has just been released by Jason and I. A verification on our 2003 May forecast should also come during the next few weeks.
IWIC 2004 Preliminary Hurricane Outlook
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season produced 14 named storms, seven of which became hurricanes. Three of those were major hurricanes, a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Final damages estimates are not yet available.
- Tropical Storm Ana (April 22-24): 45 mph. Formed in the Atlantic, more than five weeks before hurricane season began. Ana was only a threat to shipping interests and quickly dissipated.
- Tropical Storm Bill (June 29-July 1): 60 mph. Formed in Gulf of Mexico and quickly angled northeast, sweeping across New Orleans, Mississippi and Alabama, leaving tens of thousands without electricity, and eventually crossing North Carolina into the Atlantic. Bill was blamed for four deaths: a man killed by a falling tree limb in Atlanta; two swimmers in the Florida Panhandle who drowned in the rough surf; and a 10-year-old boy drowned in a rain-swollen creek in North Carolina. Total loses estimated at $30 million.
- Hurricane Claudette (July 8-17): 90 mph. Formed over the Caribbean Sea and made landfall as a tropical storm on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. It returned to the Gulf of Mexico, gained strength and hit the Texas coast as a Category 1 hurricane. Claudette remained tropical storm strength for 24 hours over Texas before dissipating. It caused one death - a 13-year-old Texas boy was crushed by a falling tree - and was blamed for two indirect deaths, a 33-year-old woman who was hit by a falling limb after the storm was over and a 71-year-old man who drowned off of the Florida Panhandle in surf generated by Claudette. Damage was estimated at $180 million.
Hurricane Danny (July 16-20): 75 mph. Formed over the Atlantic and briefly became a weak hurricane before dissipating without threatening land.
Hurricane Erika (Aug. 14-17): 75 mph. Formed in the Gulf of Mexico and became a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall in northeastern Mexico near Brownsville, Texas, then weakened rapidly. Two people died in Montemorelos, Mexico, when they tried to cross a bridge that was partially under water and their truck was swept away by flood waters. Erika was originally thought to be a strong tropical storm when it made landfall, but forecasters later determined it was a hurricane.
Hurricane Fabian (Aug. 29-Sept. 8): 145 mph. Formed near the Cape Verde Islands and was a powerful Category 3 storm when it struck Bermuda, becoming the worst hurricane to strike the island since 1926. Fabian continued north and eventually dissipated in the cool northern Atlantic waters. It was responsible for eight deaths: four people drowned when they and their vehicles were swept off a causeway in Bermuda; a man drowned in a rip current near Cape Hatteras; and three fishermen drowned when their vessel sank about 350 miles north of St. John's, Newfoundland. Property damage was estimated at $300 million.
Tropical Storm Grace (Aug. 30-31): 40 mph. Formed in the western Gulf of Mexico and made landfall near Port O'Connor, Texas, bringing 4 to 6 inches of rain to the southeast Texas coast.
Tropical Storm Henri (Sept. 3-8): 60 mph. Formed in the Gulf of Mexico and sped across the Florida Peninsula before dissipating in the western Atlantic.
Hurricane Isabel (Sept. 6-19): 160 mph. Formed west of the Cape Verde Islands and became a Category 5 storm over open water, but weakened into a Category 2 storm before striking North Carolina. Isabel moved northwestward across the eastern United States before dissipating near Erie, Penn. More than six inches of rain were reported in Maryland and Virginia. Isabel was responsible for 40 deaths from North Carolina to New Jersey. Damage was estimated at $2 billion.
Hurricane Juan (Sept. 25-29): 105 mph. Formed in the Atlantic and headed north, skirting Bermuda and becoming a Category 2 hurricane before striking Nova Scotia near Halifax on Sept. 29. This was the first time Hallifax was hit by the eyewall of a hurricane since 1893. Juan is blamed for two direct deaths from falling trees and three indirect deaths from a house fire that apparently started by candles during the power outage.
Hurricane Kate (Sept. 25- Oct. 7): 125 mph. Formed in the Atlantic and briefly became a hurricane Sept. 29 before weakening. Kate move west, strengthened and became a Category 3 hurricane before dissipating in the north Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Larry (Oct. 1-6): 60 mph. Formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico and struck the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico before fading to a tropical depression. Larry dumped about nine inches of rain in 24 hours on the Chiapas capital of Tuxtla Gutierrez. The storm was responsible for five deaths in Mexico.
Tropical Storm Mindy (Oct. 10-14): 45 mph. Formed near the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic and turned into the open Atlantic where it dissipated.
Tropical Storm Nicholas (Oct. 13-23): 60 mph. Formed in the eastern Atlantic. Nicholas moved north and west but never threatened land before weakening.
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"