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Azores #96L fails to complete transition into a Sub-Tropical Storm. Elsewhere, weak low pressure in Caribbean may linger into next week.
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Archives >> 2003 News Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 134
Loc: East Central Florida 28.33N 80.81W
Post Season Tropical Storm Peter Forms, almost a Hurricane
      #14061 - Tue Dec 09 2003 02:01 PM

Wow, another post season storm, and a strong one to boot. Tropical Storm Peter formed this morning in the Eastern Atlantic. The first time since 1887 two storms have formed in December. And this one may even become a hurricane, which after such a quiet November, is amazing to me.

Although this one is heading toward extratropical, the fact and historical point of two storms in December, along with one in April for the 2003 year will make it very notible. It only makes me wonder more about next year...

Odette dissapated after Flooding lots of the Dominican Republic and then shooting off toward the east northeast.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mac]


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
This Close...
      #14062 - Tue Dec 09 2003 04:28 PM

According to the 4:00 advisory:

"Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Peter could have been a hurricane for a short period of time earlier today."

Question, if Peter never makes it to hurricane strength, and NHC concedes he could have been a hurricane, do we consider him one? I know the record books will never show this, but it's December 9th, and we're talking about HURRICANES in the Atlantic

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
peter out
      #14063 - Tue Dec 09 2003 04:30 PM

i'm afraid that peter has already peaked. it will probably have lost its tropical characteristics in 18-36hr. convection is getting ragged already. NHC may post analyze it to hurricane (probably was around 11am-1pm est today), may not.. this storm never had very deep central convection and those strong winds may not have mixed to the surface well. on top of that the windfield would be hard to ascertain, since the central pressure is only a guess and the structure is surely unconventional.
anyhow, maybe another follow-on low in the eastern atlantic by the weekend. will watch just for the fun of it, doubt it will evolve in an environment where hybridization can occur.
HF 2129z09december


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: This Close...
      #14064 - Tue Dec 09 2003 04:32 PM

it happens man. nicole as recently as '98 was still a hurricane as december started. olga just two years ago was still meandering in early december, though it had peaked in late november.
HF 2131z09december


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Chances of new development?
      #14065 - Tue Dec 09 2003 04:43 PM

HF

Since this is already an extremely rare year (2 named storms in December), what do you give as the chances for Rose to develop? 50/50? Less?

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: Chances of new development?
      #14066 - Tue Dec 09 2003 05:24 PM

You didn't ask me, but I would be shocked if HankFrank or any meteorologist said the odds of Rose forming were as high as 50/50. The odds are very, very slim....of course they were very slim for Peter, too, but now they're even slimmer.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Chances of new development?
      #14067 - Tue Dec 09 2003 05:29 PM

Brad, the only reason I asked HF about the development chances, is because he always seems to see the development before anyone else of us does, especially what became Odette & Peter. He mentioned he saw something new, and I was hoping he'd be able to elaborate a bit.

As far as future December development...I'd say 5%-95% against. It's just been such an add season, and as long as we've had two TS's this month, it's possible but not probable to have one more.

That's all

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Post Season Tropical Storm Peter Forms, almost a Hurricane
      #14068 - Tue Dec 09 2003 08:34 PM

Peter is starting to look a little puny this evening as convection is on the wane, but earlier today he was quite a storm. He may still pulse back up a little before becoming extratropical. His hybrid origins should keep him going for a couple of days as he heads off to the north.

Time to give some credit when it is due. Its easy to be critical - and meteorologists do it all the time with differing opinions on the same system - even at the national level. Claudette was stronger than anticipated at landfall. Grace was marginal. It would have been easy for NHC to have ignored Peter - the calendar season had ended; everyone tired and feeling the strain of an extra long and busy season; time to summarize the year and think about the holidays. A storm in the far eastern Atlantic that was going to die in a day or two anyway. But a much deserved tip of the professional hat to NHC for not ignoring this one. All in all the NHC did an excellent job this year - just my opinion.
Cheers,
ED


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recmod
Weather Guru


Reged: Sun
Posts: 188
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: This Close...
      #14069 - Tue Dec 09 2003 09:33 PM


>>>Question, if Peter never makes it to hurricane strength, and NHC concedes he could have been a hurricane, do we consider him one? I know the record books will never show this..<<<

Actually, Erika from earlier this season HAS been upgraded to a hurricane through "post storm reviews" (see the link below from NHC),...so it's also possible for the same to happen with Peter.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2003erika.shtml?

Lou


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
second the notion
      #14070 - Tue Dec 09 2003 10:39 PM

yeah, NHC did a nice job this year. it seems totally natural now, but not one year ago we didn't have a five-day forecast. very nice addition, and with those nicely forecast longtrackers got a nice test run.
phil, as long as odette and peter went.. i don't forecast any better than anyone else, just have an eye for odd storms and fish spinners. honestly i've spent a lot of time looking at the unisys archives trying to figure out what storms are in the record books, all the stuff that happened prior to me being alive to see it. i ought to make a list of stuff to look at in the forum for anyone who's interested.. there's some neat stuff over there.
peter is decaying quickly. the first discussion today probably had the lifespan right.. if nothing else.
anyhow, don't expect a rose this year. thin odds. globals have another low evolving south of the azores, but my bet is against. then again, i'll be watching.
HF 0336z10december


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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
Re: This Close...
      #14071 - Wed Dec 10 2003 09:53 AM

an interesting note: it was said originally that claudette may have been a hurricane also, in the caribbean, on july 10. it too was redesignated a hurricane for the caribbean track

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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: This Close...
      #14072 - Wed Dec 10 2003 10:13 AM

HF, Ed, Bugs (Ron) & Recmod (Lou);

Thanks for the clarification. It's been a great season, albeit with little November activity. I thought NHC did a superb job this year, and even added in new 5 day forecasts. I'm wishing the season doesn't end, because at this time of the year, anything that forms probably isn't gonna affect anyone negatively.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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BugsBunny
Weather Watcher


Reged: Thu
Posts: 42
Loc: Florida
storm advisories
      #14073 - Wed Dec 10 2003 01:06 PM

i was wondering if anyone khows where i can find the original tropical public advisories (not just the coordinates) for 1996 and 1997. 1991-94 are on HNC ftp site, 1998-2003 on archives site, 1996-97 no where to be found


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forecast: 17/14/9/5
to date: 3/3/2/1


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
Re: storm advisories
      #14075 - Thu Dec 11 2003 01:54 AM

not a clue, man. as the final advisory says, hopefully the 2003 season is wrap. it will be interesting to see the post-analysis on peter as it was probably a subtropical system for a day or two before NHC began issuing advisories.
HF 0553z11december


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Gray's forecasts have lots of hints...when you read...
      #14079 - Sat Dec 13 2003 06:27 PM

developed an impulse to post this from gray's 2004 forecast...

(6) - November SLP (7.5-22.5°N, 125-175°W) (+) -2.6SD
Predictor 6. November SLP in the Subtropical NE Pacific (+)

(7.5-22.5°N, 125-175°W)
This feature is also strongly related to the following year's August-September sea level pressure in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. High pressure in this area correlates with low sea level pressure in the tropical Atlantic and easterly anomalies at 200 mb during the following August through September period. According to Larkin and Harrison (2002), high pressure in this area appears during most winters preceding the development of a La Niņa event. High pressure in this region forces stronger trade winds in the east Pacific which increases upwelling and helps initiate La Niņa conditions which eventually enhance Atlantic hurricane activity during the following summer. In addition, this predictor correlates with low geopotential heights at 500 mb throughout the tropics the following year which is also favorable for more hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

this factor, which is negative 2.6, looks to be a VERY strong inhibiting factor on next year's hurricane activity assuming it actually holds a correlation next year. you all know what happens when the pressures in the tropics are sky high-no organized convection can develop. combine this with the possible arrival of an el nino. things don't look real hot for 2004 imo. oddly enough, all of gray's analog years with "similar conditions" had one major storm strike somewhere. does seem like next year could be the type where we have a lot of nothing with the exception of one storm that breaks through and becomes a problem.

will see



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