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Archives >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC 33.56N 81.82W
florida repercussions [Re: LoisCane]
      #15024 - Sun Jun 06 2004 10:35 PM

eventually climatology will right itself and florida will get walloped a few times. sure, huge economic impacts for the state, and all of the associated repercussions. but then again, this is florida we're talking about. florida is SUPPOSED to get hit by hurricanes.. it's part of the natural cycle that gives the state it's environmental niches. just because you put millions of people there doesn't mean that's going to change. for all that insurance you guys pay it would be kinda stupid to keep getting off the hook.
on a current weather note.. the global modeling (gfs) i've been following has been getting steadily less reliable, in terms of run-to-run consistency.. for the past two weeks. i've seen so many different versions of bastardi's pattern evolution that i really don't know which to believe. if teleconnections are going to work.. maybe that gulf system will pop up in a week. right now i'm going to go with no systems for the next seven days. don't see any real indications for that time period, and more doubtful on the potential gulf system. if it blows up, expect it will have to develop very quickly, be short-lived. the general longwave pattern for the last month has been.. western trough, trough in the canadian maritimes.. mostly flat ridge between. that looks to continue.. don't think it will foster much development.
one other note.. SST anomalies have me thinking the atlantic ridge will have a weakness near 50-60w, but will be strong in the east atlantic and strong near the east coast.
HF 0235z07june


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Update [Re: Jamiewx]
      #15025 - Sun Jun 06 2004 10:40 PM

It looked to me though as if what looked like had some curve to it moved under dense overcast ;thus maybe some stacking.I just got done looking at CIMSS site shear is expected to lessen.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shtZ.html


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Update [Re: Anonymous]
      #15026 - Sun Jun 06 2004 10:44 PM

Did not realize I was not logged in but if you look at the last few frames of VIS you might see what I mention.

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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Florida
Re: Tropical Update [Re: Anonymous]
      #15027 - Sun Jun 06 2004 10:49 PM

that would be the shear tendency map, although the tendency has been for it to decrease, the forecast i looked at was indicating an increase over the next two days. Also even though the tendency has been for it to decrease, shear still exists over the system according to the latest analysis, which would explain why NHC keeps stating development is not expected due to unfavorable upper level winds, or at least that was the way i looked at it. Guess it depends on the source

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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Tropical Update [Re: LI Phil]
      #15028 - Sun Jun 06 2004 10:50 PM

Hey Guys, You may not remember me, but I posted a few times last year under the name Young Droop, Well I really enjoyed this site so Im back this year. Im also more wise this year when it comes to the tropics and weather in general. Still nowhere near any of you but one day I hope to have the knowledge some of you guys have. I live in Pensacola, Fl. and I have never been in a hurricane. Still waiting my turn, Just hopin it isnt the "Big One", Something small just to break me in But Im just afraid for Pensacola Beach, over the last few years, growth has exploded out there with I think about 4 new Huge Condo's being built. Anybody thats been there recently will be able to tell how much PCB has grown. I dont even want to think what a large hurricane would do to this area, And I hope I never find out. Anyways sorry for my rambling's, Had to get that off my chest lol Anyways have a good one ya'll.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Welcome back "Droop" [Re: DroopGB31]
      #15029 - Sun Jun 06 2004 10:56 PM

Enjoy these boards. Some really knowledgable & talanted people post here (I'm not one of them). Just one geography question. I don't have my atlas handy so I can't look it up and right now it's too late to start doing it online. Where is Pensacola Beach? Because you used the acronym PCB, which I always equated with Panama City Beach, and don't want to become confused. (Shout out to JK). Maybe, if it's not on the panhandle, you could just use the abbreviation PB, so the slower members like myself can keep things straight.

Thanks,

Cheers & Peace

LI Phil

**Update** OK I found it on the map (actually took some doing, believe it or not), now I know where Pensacola Beach is. On the Panhandle, but much further west than Panama City. Still, probably close enough that you're likely to see much the same weather. No need for anyone to respond to this post.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"

Edited by LI Phil (Sun Jun 06 2004 11:22 PM)


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DroopGB31
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
Re: Welcome back "Droop" [Re: LI Phil]
      #15030 - Sun Jun 06 2004 11:35 PM

Sorry about the confusion Phil, I thought about not using the acronym PCB cause I knew ppl associate it moslty with Panama City Beach. I got tired of typing and didnt want to type Pensacola Beach lol Sry Again, and thanks for the greeting!!

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Welcome back "Droop" [Re: DroopGB31]
      #15031 - Sun Jun 06 2004 11:38 PM

No problem. I'm just somewhat easily confused. So long as you keep it PB and not PCB, I think I can handle it

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: florida repercussions [Re: HanKFranK]
      #15032 - Mon Jun 07 2004 12:08 AM

Just a word to throw in about the Florida thing. I'm already on record in the storm forum as saying we'll get wacked twice this year by a named storm, although my reason might be a little far-fetched. But we have been very lucky, and we're due for a bad day or two sometime in the future, much like the rest of the east coast and gulf. But we all are aware of the risk of living on a very low pile of sand that extends out into the very waters where these storms develop. It's not the smartest thing living in Florida, I'm mean geez, they don't even let us vote anymore! We never, ever, ever claim to be the brightest lightbulbs down hear, that speaking from experence.

I'm with HankFrank on nothing for the next week, maybe 10 days for me. We are really in a dead zone for storm development; the Atlantic is just locked up right now for at least a couple of weeks by a really strong high pressure pressing down from the north. But thats how it is most years anyway, right? So that leaves the gulf, which is almost no chance for even a TD for as far as models can see. It's going to be a slow start this year.

Joepub1


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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1364
Loc: Florida
Polk County Weather Update [Re: Anonymous]
      #15033 - Mon Jun 07 2004 01:35 AM

Now I know why I only post here and am not working on hurricane models. Those boomers I mentioned earlier (posting as WxGal) never came to fruition and I was able to count the number of raindrops that fell on one hand. Oh well.

I'll be keeping an eye on the area of interest mentioned here from now on.

Thanks to Mike C. who let me come back as myself.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered




Heating up? [Re: CFHC]
      #15036 - Mon Jun 07 2004 07:50 AM

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg

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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1212
Loc: South Florida
Re: Heating up? [Re: Cocoa Beach]
      #15037 - Mon Jun 07 2004 08:09 AM

thanks for that shot of the far Eastern Atlantic... its pretty wet out there, unommon in ways, very different look from last year at this time

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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Heating up? [Re: LoisCane]
      #15038 - Mon Jun 07 2004 10:35 AM

Agreed, activity this far east this early is, shall we say is intriguing. Nonetheless, what IS the same is the high west shear. For most this is a good thing, as it should curtail any major development, for us, it's a pity as we all love to see and track these storms. It's all OK, as long as nobody gets hurt.

mitch...

PS - You may be asking yourself, why is somebody from Atlanta so interested in hurricanes? I lived in South Florida for about 15 years, getting out a year before Andrew. However, my parents along with the rest of my family still live in hurricane prone South Florida. I had the pleasure of meeting with Dr. Neil Frank many years ago when he was top dog at the National Hurricane Center in the early 80's. My goal was to enter the field, but the real money is in TV, but I do not have the "TV Voice." So I enjoy weather from a places like this board. Many Thanks!!!

Edited by MoparMitch (Mon Jun 07 2004 10:48 AM)


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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
Re: Heating up? [Re: MoparMitch]
      #15040 - Mon Jun 07 2004 11:20 AM

Hello everyone, aside from posting our 2004 hurricane forecast discussion in the storm forum, haven't been an active poster recently. I enjoy reading these discussions here though...can hardly wait until we get some TC development.

Regarding the east Atlantic, the waves aren't looking too shabby. But I wouldn't say they look any better than at this time last year...at this time last year a strong wave had just exited the coast and would (a few days down the road) become a rare early storm...TD2. Also the overall organization of the waves and how active the ITCZ is will fluctuate in weekly cycles in conjunction with the 2 phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation. Right now, the MJO pattern across the globe is not real defined so we're not seeing any marked decrease or increase in wave organization...hopefully we'll see the positive and negative MJO line up and ready to progress in the next couple of days. Knowing the MJO is also helpful to know days/weeks in advance when we'll see a burst (or lull) of activity, particularly in the heart of the season.

The SW Caribbean disturbance won't do anything...it'll get shoved into central America before too long, and it's time over water won't amount to much due to the strong westerly shear being induced by the subtropical jet and upper level ridge in the east Pacific.

So overall the tropics look to be in check for the next week at the very least. TWW, Kevin, and I did forecast no development in June for this season (mostly based on climatological patterns)...guess we'll see how that pans out.

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Heating up? [Re: Rob_M]
      #15041 - Mon Jun 07 2004 12:07 PM

I think the stuff that Joe B. was referring to is now starting to exit the western Mexican coast line. Of course it could be just normal rain showers but it does seem to be coming off fast, unless the Satellite frames are in backwards and it is really moving West instead of east.

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Lois
Unregistered




SW carib..worth a look [Re: Anonymous]
      #15042 - Mon Jun 07 2004 02:11 PM

would like your thoughts... seems to have a hint of a spin

been pretty in color all day too, even John Hope would have peeked a bit


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Tropical Update [Re: Jamiewx]
      #15043 - Mon Jun 07 2004 02:11 PM

I would like to apologize thier Jamiewx it was a shear tendancy I was referring to not a forcast.I hate to keep looking at it but there seems to be some kind of circulation in the system.The shear continues to lighten today with the shrinking of the in the Atlantic high.If you look at the pic on faster speed you see something maybe mid-level circulation.I am no pro by no means just an observer like many tring to learn along the way.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes


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Lois
Unregistered




SW Carib... looks best in wv imagery [Re: javlin]
      #15046 - Mon Jun 07 2004 03:01 PM

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

been watching all 3.. fact that you can see it this well entrenched on wv imagery is I think note worthy


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Update [Re: javlin]
      #15047 - Mon Jun 07 2004 03:29 PM

I can see maybe a hint of a weak mid-level circulation just east of the Nicaraguan coast.For sure the convective area has persisted for more than 48 hours but it has pulses up and down with no concentration in an area but being the time of the year the area has to be watched but for now nothing is imminent to develop there.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: Tropical Update [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15049 - Mon Jun 07 2004 03:56 PM

What does Joe Bastardi have to say this week?

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