HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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you may want to wait a couple or three weeks before becoming alarmed at SST changes. keep in mind that merely a month ago people were talking about a dead gulf year due to below average SSTs.. they have completely reversed in that time. i wouldn't consider less than 2C SST anomalies in the east atlantic as a storm count-changing variable anyway.. the extent of 25-27C waters and how quickly temps reach that threshold tends to matter more than whether you have pockets of heat anomalies out there (remember the huge area in 1995 and all the east atlantic early recurvatures). SST anomalies tend to affect your storm count more in the mid-latitudes.. where you get hybrid storms and storms that retain intensity to higher latitudes than otherwise. and off the u.s. east coast SST anomalies have been consistently above average for recent years (though cool pockets are apparent near the canadian maritimes).
the big factors to look for that will dominate storm formation patterns/numbers this season:
1) the multidecadal upswing
2) waves/SOI
3) tropical pacific water profile (neutral.. cool 1/2, warm 3/4)
4) gulf stream/western north atlantic +sst anomalies
5) SAL in mid-late summer
for movement of systems, probably:
1) mean ridge strength, position, wavelength
2) NAO! timing of east coast troughs
3) intensity into the late summer
4) incidental strength of trade winds
5) east atlantic water profiles (mean strengthening rate, tendency to recurve early)
all of these are in one way or another connected to #1
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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that's hopefully opinion based on fact.. or the tendency of these things to drive the train in recent years..
HF 1828z05june
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>>Since the E&N Forum was rapidly becoming a Chat Room, I have decided that it is in the best interest of the site to close down the Everything & Nothing Forum for a few days so that we can all get back to the primary focus of this site which is tropical weather discussion.
Well said Ed. That's what the PM feature is for. It's great to see that some of our newer members are young and enthusiastic...but like you said, this is first and foremost a fantastic site to enrich our knowledge of the weather, especially hurricanes. I'd been "lurking" on these boards since before Floyd, but I didn't start posting until last year. Some of our newer members might want to browse through the past few years of posts to get an idea of the type of content that is presented here.
That being said, I've learned more from ED, HF, JK, Steve, C-Eye, Frank P., Colleen, Joepub, Cat V Rick, Rich, Steve H., Coop, bobbi, scottsvb et. al. (I know I'm forgetting a few) than I could ever learn simply by watching the Weather Channel. This is a great place to gain great weather knowledge!
Thanks Ed, Mike & John for availing to all!
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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HankFrank--followed everything above except SAL. What does that stand for?
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WxGal
Registered User
Reged: Wed
Posts: 4
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I just came back from Clearwater Beach. I noticed yesterday that the water was cooler than I remember it being this time of the year and the water was definitely not what I would call "clear". Looked like there had been quite a bit of stirring around based on the amount of seaweed I picked out of my normally brown hair. Driving home today, I think we missed most of the storms but boy downtown Tampa must have gotten pounded because the temperature dropped from 92 at the beach to 78 near the airport. It's still threatening here, but nothing special to speak of yet.
That's all I can tell ya weather wise.
Colleen 
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Tony
Unregistered
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Just wanted to say a quick "Hi" to all and really enjoy reading the info/opinions posted here. I look forward to everyones commments during the upcoming season. I live near Panama City FL, in the Florida panhandle. I know it is over a week away, but FYI the recent AVN/GFS, if I am reading it right, show a 1004mb storm hitting the FL eastern panhandle/big bend area at 216/228 hour (June 13/14). I realize that **if** this verified, it would bring some much needed rain to much of Florida.
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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If this verifies, it would also mean that Phil would be right in predicting Alex to form in the GOM around the 14th June. There seems to be a lot of consistency in predictions - a lot of models, forecasters etc seem quite keen on something forming in the Gulf sometime in the next 2 weeks or so. We will see...
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yeah, that would be something wouldn't it? By the way, I also fixed the FLA election in '00, so you can count on a 6/14 GOM storm (NOT!). It was a pure guess issued more than a month ago, so if it verifies it's complete and total luck, not skill of any kind. But it sure would be neat if it happened... 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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He wasn't my favorite president, but to many he was. Ronald Reagan passed away this afternoon from complications with his heart. He was 93 and suffered from Alzheimers for the past 10 years. May he rest in peace.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>>HankFrank--followed everything above except SAL. What does that stand for?
I believe it stands for "saharan air layer." HF correct me if I'm wrong.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal-atl.html
Here is all the information concerning the sal.The SAL factor is an important one in my estimation because it causes systems to weaken after they develop into depressions,tropical Storms or hurricanes.Last year for example TD#6 which formed east of the lesser antilles was forecasted by the models to be a hurricane in the eastern caribbean sea but weakened to an open wave and never came back to redevelop because the SAL factor came into play with dry air entraining the low level circulation.There are many other examples of storms and hurricanes that haved hitted a big wall of dry air.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Here's an article about the SAL by a NOAA researcher that came out in April.
SAL Article
We've gotten at least 3" of rain here today and are expecting 1-2" more this evening. It's been raining every day again. This has been a weird May and June for here - mostly hot (upper 80's) and tons of T-storms based on upper features moving along the southern stream flow out of the W and NW. I'm not sure what ultra-rainy and warmer LA temps in early June signify, but if anyone has links to that data, feel free to see if there are any analogs for 2-3 months downstream.
As for the world, the had gone slightly negative for a couple of days on the 3rd and 4th. This is often a precursor for WPAC tropical activity. Indeed, there are 2 invests out that way - 96W.INVEST and 07W.NONAME. You can see them here:
NRL Homepage
Index has returned to positive meaning it won't likely be signifying a lot of heat migrating eastward from the Sothern Pacific into the Eastern El Nino zones.
SSTA's are interesting. If you go to OTIS (see link below), you will notice some recent changes and some evolution in the oceans' climates.
FMNOC OTIS SSTA'S
There isn't a whole lot of shear around the Gulf right now (relatively). A medium jet might get cranking out the NW into the west-central Gulf after a couple of days, but that's not some 80mph shear zone. You can look at shear maps from the link below:
Shear page from ATWC (Some links don't work)
It looks like the Gulf is setting up nicely for later next week. It's tough to say if anything's going to develop, but we have an interrupted windflow, anticipated southerly and SEly air currents, a pretty strong wave getting into the picture and a piece of an old trof. I wouldn't say with 100% certainty that something's going to develop down there next week, but a setup (one of many different types) will be in effect. It should be an interesting week ahead to watch things to see if we can't get a TD or TS cranking.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Two other things I wanted to throw out - Carl Arredondo off of WWL Channel 4 (CBS) in New Orleans mentioned in last night's weathercast that "some of the models are hinting at some Gulf activity next week, so we're going to up the rain chances for late next week.
Also, go to GOES and run a water vapor loop. The big high off the SE coast is amazing for June. That's a potential convair belt. People better hope that that sucker migrates east once the CV season gets rolling along. Also of note in the WV's are various concentric upper-level low pressures mulling around. Those ordinarily signify a reduced year and higher storm total year. Those types of ULL's also often signify La Nina or Neutral conditions.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve Hirsch.
Unregistered
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Hey Colleen! How's things going? Kids keeping ya runnin'? SSTs in the GOM may be slightly cooler than last year at this time, but I don't think it will make a big difference as far as the tropical season is concerned. SSTs are coming up nicely on the east coast here. The trough that moved through this weekend stirred things up quite a bit, hence the sea weed. Hope ypu had a good time though. Get ready for an early kickoff to the season. Cheers!!
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clyde w.
Storm Tracker
Reged: Fri
Posts: 211
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Thanks everyone for the SAL info. I'd never heard of that one before.
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Storm Cooper
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
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It's not weather but I found the 40Th President to be one of the best in my lifetime! This day is a sad one for most... a great person moving on.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Been watching the coverage all night. No matter what your politics, you have to admire Reagan. His was truly an amazing life.
I want to thank ED for not deleting or moving (granted, the E&N forum is closed) these posts.
As an aside, today is also the 60th anniversary of D-Day. Another truly amazing feat in the history of the USA and the world. To our younger members...
This is the reason the french aren't speaking German today. If you don't get that reference, ask your parents/grand parents. They'll tell you.
OK. That's my piece (peace).
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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want to hear your thoughts
my thoughts on Reagan are my own and since I'm not posting on a news board I'll hold onto them..either way a historic day... compells you to watch
want to hear your thoughts on SW Carib, think too soon to tell but never know
Bobbi
(From the Moderator: I think that a couple of posts were certainly worthwhile to cover these memorable events - but now its time to move on - thanks.)
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Jun 06 2004 11:13 AM)
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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SoonerShawn
Unregistered
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I don't know if anything will form from the caribbean stuff but it could mean a bunch of rain for us in SE Texas. The NWS is almost comparing this situation to what we had 3 years ago with Allison. I would rather this system develop because it may mean less rain than if it doesn't. We will see.
ShawnS
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