Anonymous
Unregistered
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BIG QUESTION...... Instead of assuming that the models does not know where the low will form, could it be possible that they are really picking up on 2 seperate areas along the axis line that are trying to form a low?Most all of the models are talking about something in the CENTRAl / NE GOM . Also, quite a few of the models are picking up on a low in the west central Atlantic.OH BOY, WE MAY REALLY HAVE SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT SOON!!!!!!!! T. Leap
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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NHC is watching the low east of JAX which has a lot of convection building on this mornings IR pix. Also of note the wave east of the islands which is moving WNW and has been building showers and t'storms since last nite moving towards the windwards. Should get interesting today. The low near JAX is drifting east; will it do an about face under building high pressure?? CHeers!! Steve H.
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged: Fri
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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The low east of JAX is looking really nice, for sure. I say the next storm will come from this low.
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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First Indications of a low trying to develop
First of all, there are pressure drops between Tampa and Tallahassee. Now the other surrounding buoys are probably reporting some pressure falls as well. But I am focusing on KTNF1 and CDRF1. Latest pressure readings from KTNF1 (The one closer to Tallahassee) is reporting 29.90 inches and steady. The other buoy is at 29.90 also but the tendency has been -0.02. Nothing major...yet. You can also see some signs of a possible weak circulation if you look closely at the shortwave IR loop.
Also Watch the East Coast...
Now the chances of development are unlikely but it is an area of interest. Pressure in the area is about 29.90 inches and steady.
MSAS DEPICTING CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE CONV ACROSS ATLC WATERS...AND
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY OF CONVECTION JUST OFFSHR SC
COAST. CLOUD TOPS STILL NEAR -55C...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
THIS IS IN AN AREA OF CONFLUENT FLOW...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A
WEAK SFC LOW FORMING OFFSHR OF THE CWA.
THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW OFFSHR THE CWA SHOWS SOME CHANGES THIS CYCLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS NE TODAY...WHILE A NEW
TROF MOVES IN FROM THE NW BY TNGT...CONTINUES NEARBY SAT...THEN BACK
NW BY SUN AS ATLC RIDGE STARTS TO POKE IN. ACROSS THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS...THE LOW BECOMES ELONGATED NE-SW TO THE S OF THE CWA...AS
RIDGE TO THE N GRADUALLY BUILDS E TOWARD THE MID-ATLC REGION. A NEW
LOW EVENTUALLY TRIES TO FORM IN THE GULF OF MEX AND RETROGRADE
W...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO THE N TO PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLC THE NEXT SVRL
DAYS...WITH INVERTED TROF SETTING UP OFFSHR TO THE E AND SE. BIG
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THAT TROF WILL SHIFT FROM OFFSHR
TOWARD THE COAST...WITH THE AVN MUCH QUICKER WITH THE ASSOCIATED
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE. FOR NOW PREFER TO MAINTAIN A BLEND OF THE
WETTER AVN WITH THE DRIER ETA/NGM.
BETTER MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS GA CWA THAN SC THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...SO WILL GO WITH SLGTLY HIER POPS S THAN N. LITTLE OR NO +VV
EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LOW LEVEL FORCING FROM ATLC SEA BREEZE AND FROM
DAYTIME HEATING (WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW). IF SFC TROF DOES MOVE INTO THE AREA IT WOULD NOT BE UNTIL
SUN...BUT WILL AGAIN GO WITH SLGTLY HIER POPS IN GA DURING THAT
TIME. TEMPS THRU THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH ONLY ABOUT A
5 DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPS FROM COAST TO INLAND.
FOR NEXT WEEK...SFC LOW THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND
MOVES FURTHER W...TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. WITH A
DEEPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SMALL.
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY START TO CLIMB ONCE AGAIN WITH A MORE SW OR W LOW
LEVEL FLOW RETURNING.
MARINE...WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS THRU THE FCST PERIOD...ALTHO I
AM CONCERNED WITH ETA FCST OF OCC'L 20 KT. WINDS WILL BE HIEST OVER
N PORTION THE NEXT FEW FCST PERIODS...WITH GENERALLY NE-E WINDS EACH
DAY...BACKING TO MORE NE AT NIGHT. WINDS TO SHIFT TO A MORE S'ERLY
COMPONENT NEXT WEEK.
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Quote: I was gone for a time so now I'm back so it's time to get back to work on the tropical weather.
I was hoping you were banned. In your absence I ran into several high-level posters on other boards that you ran off. Two of them specifically told me they don't have time to waste browsing through your posts, so they stopped coming to what used to be and hopefully will again be the best Tropical site on the web.
Your friend.
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CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
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I absolutely refuse to create a "locked in" atmosphere here. Incidents will be handled on a case by case basis. But if you want a "club" where new folks aren't encouraged to enter you will not find it here. We are moderating posts and cleaning up garbage as we see fit. Banning someone or locking the boards up is something I will not do.
I'm interested in what everyone has to say, not just a few folks. Everyone's contribution is appreciated. If people want to be "snooty" about it, they are encouraged to go elsewhere. Problems here will be dealt with as they come, and I am not defending anyone in particular. They have been warned by me.
As for the tropics. There are a few things perculating, but nothing that gets me excited yet (or really write about). There are a few things worth watching that I may talk about later though..
Thanks,
- Mike C. /
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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Like I said, definitely something to watch.
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http://www.independentwx.com
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caneman
Unregistered
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Mike, I don't think anyone is being snooty. Nobody is saying said person shouldn't post. It would be helpful if they could at least formulate thoughts that you can understand and if not at least quit flooding the board. I for one have dial up service which takes awhile to load. And once I get on the site I might see 5 new posts which I get pretty excited about but then after spending time waiting to see them, I find 4 are from same person of which you may understand only about 5%.
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Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
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Heavy rain here in St.Pete this morning with 2.80 and more rain coming!
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Mike,
You know I've got nothing but love for which is my tropical home on the web and will be as long as it's up and running. But sometimes the excitement turns to disappointment. Like caneman said, when you see the new posts and expect them to be at a certain quality or curiosity level - Shawn, caneman, Landfaller, Frank P., Colleen (M.I.A.), the brothers Cornelius, HF, the Jasons, Baby Cat, Ed, Steve H. and the rest of the gang, but you end up with drivel from the likes of Paloma, John in South Florida or Matthew, it just kinda sucks. I appreciate that you guys will deal with this stuff on a case-by-case basis. But I'm sure you can see what I mean by noticing how refreshing this particular thread had been. It was more like the good old days of 2000 and 2001. A little tension and apprehension, some wishcasting, some good analysis, and some predictions. I was loving it. If the posters I referred to as sucking would only bother to read what they typed before posting, they might find that they actually had something to contribute and people might be willing to exchange ideas with them. I don't want this site to be a clique type thing either. I already frequent a couple of those boards and it works for them, but it won't work in all cases.
Okay, I'm coming down off my soapbox. Action in the tropics is heating up this morning. There are a bunch of showers offshore from the Panhandle. The system in the SW Atlantic almost looks more like a MLC than an ULL. I've only looked at it on enhanced radar, but it sure looks like it's starting to make that transition. I was surprsied it started moving out ENE yesterday (appears to be heading slightly south of east or due east today), because I had anticipated it would be dropping SW or SSW. It now seems that low pressure barely visible on the WV loop in Central Georgia may be the triggering mechanism for the Gulf. I still expect something to pull together this weekend in the Central Gulf, but I haven't had time to look at anything but the satelite photos so far. I'll be back later! Happy Friday to all.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
Looking at this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
You can clearly see the center of rotation moving off to the East. Any chance of this one getting going?
Guys and gals....too bad this was from anonymous, but it illustrates to me a feature of a good post that I would like to see a lot more of: Namely, the inclusion of a URL or URL's that illustrate *what* the poster is looking at or basing their opinion on.
I have built up a library of good URL's regarding weather, and I check them quite often. Many now are broken links, but when people include the URL's they used in forming their opinions, it does at least 2 things: It allows me to see what they saw while forming their opinion and second, it allows us to rebuild or extend our collection of good weather information URL's.
Don't be shy next time Mr or Mz Anonymous, take credit for your information and opinions.
Let the posting of URL's be a trend, not an exception....
Thanks for not assuming we all have knowledge of the same weather resourses as you do....that goes for all who post URL's as a supplement to their posted opinions.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Jason M
Weather Watcher
Reged: Fri
Posts: 39
Loc: New Orleans
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A recon will be going into the east coast low to investigate.
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http://www.independentwx.com
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
is watching the low east of JAX which has a lot of convection building on this mornings IR pix. Also of note the wave east of the islands which is moving WNW and has been building showers and t'storms since last nite moving towards the windwards. Should get interesting today. The low near JAX is drifting east; will it do an about face under building high pressure?? CHeers!! Steve H.
Looking at
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
One can see that the apparant center of the low NE of JAX is now moving NW. If that direction continues, it may encourage any moisture now in the NE Gulf to move more southward.
The Loop at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html suggests this may be happening and the Gulf is being filled with a large mass of drier air. How does this fit in with development in the Gulf this weekend or next week?
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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anybody notice the invest out there? d1.0. this piece of the whole convective chain that extends from off sc to off la has developed underneath an upper low that has been spinning down for days.. same one was inland over georgia earlier this week. the eastward movement is probably a reflection of the movement of the dying upper system, not of whatever is happening at the surface. here's what i think: slow erratic movement into the weekend until the ridge builds overhead, easterly flow kicks in. then it backs into the coast as whatever it has become.. maybe just a rainstorm, maybe a tropical cyclone. cant be specific, none of the models have it initialized right.
now, add another layer of complexity: the gulf. there is also a good chance a low will form west of tampa between now and tomorrow. should both of these possible systems get going, their proximity makes it even more interesting.. could get a fujiwhara going. this is a weird, interesting situation.
noticed the outlook from 5am: mentions more activity along a wave near 45w, and the current 98L as a weak low. the one other item of interest is the broad low near bermuda.. nao negative spawn. when the ridge tries to build back, this will also be a potential trouble spot, as the easterlies backing into it could easily generate the convection it needs.
all we need now is for africa to start spitting out the 'just add water' instant tropical storms.
i'm convinced all this is happening because i'm going on vacation next week. last time i took a trip in august was in 1992.. when Andrew did his little dance on florida's face.
matthew youre back. try not to piss anybody off this time, eh? criminy, this is supposed to be fun.
HF 1531z02august
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Ricreig
User
Reged: Sat
Posts: 431
Loc: Orlando, Fl
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In reply to:
what i think: slow erratic movement into the weekend until the ridge builds overhead, easterly flow kicks in. then it backs into the coast as whatever it has become.. maybe just a rainstorm, maybe a tropical cyclone. cant be specific, none of the models have it initialized right.
now, add another layer of complexity: the gulf. there is also a good chance a low will form west of tampa between now and tomorrow
I noticed that also but wondered if the drier air might infiltrate that area before it got spun up. Like you said, it could get interesting PDQ.
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Richard
A forecast is NOT a promise!
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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East Coast low: We have a complex situation here that needs to be monitored very closely. The center of low pressure is near 31 north and 77 west per my satellite observations. This low is currently at the upper and mid levels of the atmosphere but is trying to work it's way down to the surface, no questions about it. It is gaining thunderstom activity around the low pressure center pretty quickly due to the moist air that is around the system. This system has all of the looks of a upper-level low trying to become a tropical surface feature. This one could be a depresson by Sunday or Monday. I haven't looked into where this one might head yet.
Wave east of Windwards: This one actually looks halfway decent considering it's in a fairly dry area of the basin. This one likely won't develop but I believe it's a precursor to the Cape Verde season starting in the next 2-3 weeks.
There are also decent waves over Africa courtesy of the western Pacific quieting down. I will monitor these for development. Even if these don't develop, they will help moisten the atmosphere for future waves that will be of great concern possibly...
Time to get some opinions on where the East Coast low may be headed. 
Make YOURSELF heard with THE POLL! 
The tropics are waking up.... oh boy we're in for a bumpy ride.
Kevin
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Kevin,
I certainly didn't mean to include you in the 'et als' but I'm coming down with a pretty bad headcold and couldn't think of everyone this morning. I think the low off the Atlantic is going to run into a roadblock compliments of high pressure building in from the North. Its sphere of influence appears to be far enough east to prevent the east coast low from going too far out to sea, but it's kind of tough to tell right now because "THEN WHAT?"
As for the ricreig's comments about the drier air, it's a beautiful day here in New Orleans. The skies are almost winter blue with a few puffy clouds here and there. It almost appears like this is an elongated upper trof, which I suspect will enhance the showers in the NE Gulf, but is probably transient in that it's heading SW so quickly that it's liable to be out of the picture in a day or two. This is a farily comlex weather pattern with ultimate results that are anyone's guess. I like HF's Fujiwara effect idea but that almost never happens between the Gulf and Atlantic.
I said on Tuesday that Friday PM to Saturday PM would be the key times in figuring out what was going to happen when I only saw the Gulf Low in the models. And while the Gulf moisture is definitely getting more concentrated today, I don't even want to guess. But since I have to, I'd say low pressure forms somewhere around 26.5/87.
Should be an interesting day. I'm enjoying the hell out of everyone's comments. It's kind of a 'bonus' situation, but if a home-grown system is all we can get, we might as well party down on it.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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alot of good posts in here especially HF,but no fujiwara will happen cause that only does when a very strong system that carries a bg upper high interacts with a weaker low, it will pull the much weaker low around it.
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Matthew
Unregistered
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The southeast system is spinng with what looks to be a low leavel center at 32 north 76 west. There looks to be a forming on the east side so if the thunderstorms can move over the center than something may start or if another center forms near the thunderstorms or the like cloud like it looks to be doing. I will say saturday morning we will have a t.d if this all cames into play. Looking at the gulf of mexico this system looks to be taking off fast with a forming in may a LLC forming in a few hours looks to be upper high forming over thunderstorms so a t.d may form.
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Anonymous(Bill)
Unregistered
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Hmm, how come I can't figure this out.....there is vigourous spin, lowering pressures, building convection in the central Gulf, says NOTHING about it in the 1130 , but talks about a weak slowly building low east of Jax--and drops the wave in the ATL altogether?
Only thing I can figure is that the low is so close to land e of JAX they are a little concerned?
IHS,
Bill
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