CFHC
Reged: Sun
Posts: 148
Loc: East Central Florida
|
|
And the tropics are sleepy. But agitated, soon we may see a change of pace that will bring a great deal more activity to follow, but not necessarily to land.
Nothing immediate is going to form, so we can leave it out. But the heat in the East along with the general pattern staying mostly unfavorible for formation may mean a larger transformation once mid August comes.
The effect of the general pattern on tropical activity will not be seen into the later season. Until then, nap a little bit more, but sleep lightly.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 03 2002 10:02 AM)
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
probably something coming together east of bermuda by tomorrow. models have been harping on this day after day. this energy dropped off the NE US coast a couple of days ago and has been going SE. the probable hybrid tropical system should drift east, then speed north and phase with the next pulse in the trough (i earlier said NAO positive.. this pattern is NAO negative, with the davis straits blocking and troughing off the east coast. my bad).
several of the globals are also envisioning this later, so i'll mention it: another piece of shortwave energy is forecast later this week to break off the east coast again.. but this one goes south and eventually SW.. it should retrograde into the easterly flow. surely watch for this, it would mean possible development right off the east coast backing up.
deep tropics remarkably devoid of convection. also, with the weakened ridge and easterly flow this week, anything in the west caribbean can come NW. nothing there, though.
also.. guys, if gray adds one to each category, were at 12-8-4. that'd be funny.. numbers i've been stuck on since last november. it was just a guess. fyi for those of you who haven't read up and figured this out.. nino 1/2 is the the pacific out near the dateline, nino 3/4 is off peru, around the galapagos. finally, bastardi's talk has been that our pattern since april should morph into something different by late summer/fall--ridge interior west, trough miss. valley/lakes, big ridge western atlantic. season can get pretty rough if that checks out.
anyhow, y'all take it easy.
HF aikenSC 1918z29july
|
MoparMitch
Weather Watcher
Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
|
|
Is it my imagination, but does there seem to be more upper-level lows this year? Am I wrong? Does this mean anything?
Comments??
Enjoying this site for 3 years, first time posting...
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
You're right HF, I got that backwards 3/4 cool, 1/2 above. Derecho must also be standing on his head, as he keeps saying 3/4 is above normal by 1.0 C ! But that's another board. The ridge does break down then fun should start soon after. Cheers!!
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
Hey Mopar. I don't know if there's more or not. They're always out there and often alternate with and/or interact with the tropical waves. To me, though, it seems that this year's ULL's that originate in the central Atlantic are larger and more well defined than usual. Look at the one coming into the Gulf. Last I checked on it (a few hours ago), it practically looks like a major hurricane - except I'm looking at the Water Vapor  . Anyway, I don't know who or what tracks ULL's, so I gotta vote "I Don't Know." Lookin' forward to your input anyway!
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
hmm.. didnt notice if you had the nino zones backwards (steve h.?). honestly not sure if i've got them right, just wrote the first thing that came to mind (right fairly often). that was fyi for anybody who doesnt try to read all those confusing jargonish NOAA pages that describe the stuff. which is most everybody. so much easier just to look at that fnmoc OTIS graphic that shows global SST deviation.. and the sissy el nino.
i've got a feeling about that system piling up east of bermuda. doesnt seem to notice or care, but all those globals were talking it up, and it's making a good showing tonight. besides, i don't want rad to get his laffin' rights. i'd settle for a draw.
for those of you who still have the nagging image of a slow season, i present this table:
total number of systems by year, as of july 30th:
1998 (1 t.s.)-- season total 14 NS, B storm 8/19
1999 (1 t.s., 1 t.d.)-- season total 12 NS, B storm 8/18
2000 (2 t.d.)-- season total 14 NS, 1 STS, A storm 8/3
2001 (1 t.s., 1 t.d.)-- season total 15 NS, B storm 8/2
so, whaddya think?
gonna vote in my own poll for once, this time.
HF 0605z30july
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Yeah HF, I got no time for the jibberish. Point is El Nino is weak, not a player. Interesting to see see today's OTIS which shows what I see as a quick change to warm anomalies off the coast of Africa. How's that happen overnite?? Shows some yellows in that region where they were blue yesterday. Wonder if the guy got in his skiff and stuck a thermometer in the water last nite. Certainly shows warmer waters today. The wait continues. Starting to see some wrapping kof cloudiness and t'storms east of Bermuda. IF that develops, would it be named that far east? Cheers!
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Complexion of Atlantic seems to be changing as waves are riding a bit further north. Interested to see how the wave at 34W/9N moves. Since the ridge is getting beaten down waves should pull further north and this one is the first in the chute. Not saying it will dvelop, but watching its path. TPC has got a discusion of the area east of Bermuda on it's , and the wave exiting Africa now is half way decent. Wait and watch. Cheers!!
|
WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged: Mon
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
|
|
It's the quiet before the storms. An interesting weather trend has been happening for the last 8 days at Palm Beach International Airport. The low temperature has been 80 degrees or higher for 8 straight days. No records are kept on this, but it's got to be close to one, if not one. It's definately too warm for overnight lows!!!!!!!!
--------------------
Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
|
57497479
Weather Master
Reged: Sun
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
|
|
There is really not much happening so far, at least in the way of healthy tropical activity that would make me think that this season is going to be any different than the last couple of years. I don't think that we will see any Hurricane activity until we are well into Aug. maybe even Sept. For the sake of not being bored I hope not. Some of the models are indicating a low in the NE gulf, any comments on this,or any other up and comming systems? PLEASE SOME BODY TELL ME I AM WRONG!!!!!
--------------------
TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
System east of Bermuda: Although this system has some convection with it, it has many things working against it. They are:
1. It has an upper-level origin.
2. Thunderstorm activity has curtailed off tonight.
3. The thunderstorm activity is not around the low pressure center, mainly to the east of it.
There is a less than 2% chance of develop with this system.
57497479: Climo dictates we are not going to see develop until mid-August. Things will get nasty by then, guaranteed. I've also been saying that this year could be similar to 1999 in some ways and I have some backup on that today. On the tropical outlook, Bastardi showed the SSTA map from today and on this date in 1999, and they look at least half way similar. The QBO, synopitic high pressure pattern and the stratsphere both look similar. Things could look similar to 1999 and this means things will not start to get hairy until at least mid-August. So, it appears that we are going to have to wait a little longer to see the real show begin. But we might wish the quiet we are having now would have lasted when things get nasty in mid to late August. Sleep lightly and get ready to hold on to your ass, the season's about to arrive.
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
You just know that we were thinking of going to Pensacola this weekend. Bah humbug. I may have to cancel that trip if it sets up to be fun at home instead.
I wish to talk more about the tropics. A major wave is over central Africa now and represents the advance pulsing that we should see 6-10 days after the Pacific shuts down. Fine, but before we crank up the atlantic season, the northern gulf is the place to watch. If I had a lick of guts I would just say, we will have tropical development in the northern gulf this weekend and a west move. The pattern is dictating it with the ridge off the southeast coast and the western ridge combining and trapping a trof split over the northern gulf in the mid levels, while a nice juicy outflow highs builds over top. Here is the problem though: Will the surface low develop over water or over land? If it develops near 28 north then it moves west, its a big problem for Texas and Louisiana over the weekend or early next week. If it develops near 30 north or on land, then its just rainmaker and a wasted chance for a landfalling named storm. Now you may be saying, what the heck do you see down there that can warrant this? Well we have a warming atmosphere at outflow levels with a tropical wave that is arriving from the southeast to add low level warming. While it is warming aloft, it is doing it with a "spreading out" of the air under the mean ridge to the north. Plus we have a trof splitting going on. It is similar to what started Arthur, except its later in the season and it would move west. Suffice it to say big rain amounts will develop over the Florida panhandle tomorrow and Friday then spread west. No, I can not say for sure there will be a tropical cyclone, what I can say is the suspicions from yesterday, brought about by the overall pattern, are still there and perhaps a step further along. So if I am on the central and western gulf coast, I would be watching the weather. Further east, while it will rain alot, this will,not take off to the northeast.
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Circulation over western Africa looks good on this morning's sat pix. If it holds up we may have a candidate for development in a few days. GOM is primed for something if a surface low can form. Check out this morning's WV loop of the GOM. Dripping Wet. ULL is over Georgia so we'll see if shortwave rotating around it can form something. Seems something trying to circulate in the west-central GOM right now. See if it catches fire. Cheers!! Steve H.
|
Anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Well, does anyone think Dr. Gray will lower his numbers due to El Nino?? HOOHOOHOO HAHAHA!!! Maybe. Cheers!!
|
Kevin
Weather Master
Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
|
|
El-Nono: The cold anomaly in nino 3-4 has been utterly consistant, and it now appears that it has foiled this El Nino for good. The waters in nino 1-2 look like they're ready to explode, but with no major westerly wind bursts and with the cold water east of it, El Nino is El Nono, it's official.
Possible GOMEX spin-up: Steve is right, the GOMEX had a large and juicy bucket of moisture spilled on it this morning. I'm not quite sure about the spin-up that may occur there but if it were to occur it would develop near the northern Gulf Coast. If an a circulation does spin up it will be one BERTHA of a rainmaker!
African Wave: It looks quite impressive on IR imagery but when it hits the water it's gonna be tested big time. The area of convection is quite small. The season is about to begin...the show will start for sure in 1-3 weeks.
Glenn Ricahards: He's a met here in Orlando for WFTV Channel-9 and I'd venture to say he's the best TV met around. He said last night on the 11:00 PM news that history shows that with the rainfall patterns central Florida has been having this June/July, more TC's are typically steered our direction (we're talking Cape Verde +western Atlatnic storms). Why does it seem like 2002 will be more and more like 1999? We'll see.
Kevin  
|
anonymous
Unregistered
|
|
Well, let's see if Joe B. will be right on this one. I must say, if ever I wanted him to be right it would be this time. We need some excitement around here.Steve, we may actually have something to talk about shortly. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Later,
ShawnS
|
Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
|
|
the gale center in the atlantic i was making such noise about is already at 35N. so i doubt it will ever get a clear warm core appearance. have to see what it leaves behind, that should get sandwiched as the ridge builds back. weak broad troughing, the models say.
have to watch the surface weather off the SE coast and in NE gulf for that low to develop. timeframe would be friday/saturday.. don't see the ingredients just yet.
looks like rad gets the rights.
HF 1947z31july
|
Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
|
|
I'm hoping anything holds off until the Sunday-Monday timeframe as I really, really want to go to Pensacola Beach this weekend. Would I trade a weekend at the beach for a Tropical Storm - I dunno.
Steve
--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions
|
Jason M
Unregistered
|
|
This is just my opinion and isn't an official forecast...please read the disclaimer below.
My discussion from tropicalweatherwatchers.com...
FORECAST POSTED: 7/31/02/ 6:00 PM EDT
A lot going on in the tropics!!!
For the second straight day the models are hinting on tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, we have a high pressure system at the surface. Buoy reports across the eastern Gulf of Mexico are indicating that the pressure in the area is between 30.00 and 30.05 inches. We need the pressure to drop down near 29.85 inches to be concerned. Now there have been pressure falls over the past few hours. However, we need the pressure to continue to slowly fall and persist for at least another 12 hours so that we can be sure that this isn't just a fluctuation. This is a big factor when it comes to the potential development of this low. If the doesn't weaken, the upper low will stay over land while moving westward, as a rain event. If the high does weaken as some of the models are predicting, then the low will move out into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico and have a chance to develop.
There is some wind shear over the western Gulf. This is in response to an upper level low over Mexico. This low is moving west and will eventually move into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Therefore, the shear should begin to slowly diminish over the next few days.
Now I know a few people must be thinking, where is this low??? Well, we have an upper low over southern Georgia associated with a trough that extends all the way tot he upper low in Mexico. In addition, there is a much deeper trough move southeast out of the Tennessee Valley. Once these two troughs merge, we could see an area of low pressure develop over the eastern Gulf.
http://www.met.tamu.edu/newmodels/mrf500_H_SP_F132.gif
The MRF has a ridge moving east over the next few days. In 5.5 days, it shows the ridge centered over Missouri. Also, if you look closely near the Texas coast, you will see the low pressure system. The majority of the models are in agreement with this forecast. However, there are a couple exceptions...
Both The AVN and models take the low on a more northerly track.
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2002073112&field=950mb+Vorticity&hour=102hr
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2002073100&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=096hr
Both models show the ridge to the north farther east, allowing a more southerly flow over the central Gulf states. These are the only models that take the low into the Gulf and then north between southeast Lousiana and Pensacola. The rest of the models are in good agreement with the low staying on a westerly track towards Texas with the ridge to the north. The westerly track seems more likely. It all depends on the speed of the ridge.
For the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche, all is quiet. There is one tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche. But the wave is close to land and there are no signs of any organization taking place. The wave will move inland into Mexico sometime tomorrow.
There are no areas in the Caribbean Sea that pose any threat of developing into a tropical system. The vertical shear across the Caribbean has weakened greatly over the past 24 hours and the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough is basically nonexistant. However, as I stated yesterday, there is just too much sinking air over the area. In addition, the central Atlantic is covered in a pocket of subsidence, preventing any waves from moving into the Caribbean. The Caribbean Sea is shut down for development at least for the remainder of the week.
Now onto the upper low...
The chances of the upper low east of Bermuda developing are decreasing. The low center has been basically stationary for 24 hours. If we were going to get any development from this low, the movement would have been in a southerly direction...obviously this isn't happening. There is a trough to the northwest of the upper low. In 12-36 hours, the trough will begin to pull the upper low northward. The low should easily pass to the east of Newfoundland so no problems there. the low will impact the weather over Europe in about 7-10 days.
Remember the African wave?
The wave is still visivle on satellite and the models continue to show a decent sized wave moving off of the coast of Africa roughly in 72 hours. Yesterday, I mentioned how the upper low over the central Atlantic wouldn't give this wave much of a chance of development IF the upper low were to develop. Now there is a lot of sinking air and moderate vertical wind shear in the eastern Atlantic. Therefore, I don't believe that tropical development from this wave is likely. However, this could open the door for the Cape Verde season. Currently, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is unusually quiet for this time of the year in the Atlantic. But once the wave emerges off the African coast, we should begin to see an increase in activity. This could be the start of the wave train. The Atlantic should get going in about two weeks.
Sea Surface Temperatures
Now don't be suprised to see the waters turn cooler again by the end of the day. However, the trend over the past two weeks have been gradual warming with some fluctuations...
http://152.80.49.210/products/OTIS/otis_glbl_sstanomaly.gif
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/~gtb/tele/nao.gif
But the more important factor is the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO has turned negative. This means a stronger Atlantic thermohaline circulation within the next few weeks. In addition, long range forecast models are forecasting the Azores high to slowly weaken. What does all of this mean? Well if the forecasts do verifiy and the NAO stays negative long enough, we could see average to possibly even slightly above average SSTs in some areas of the central and eastern Atlantic. But the SSTs have been fluctuating a lot lately so we will just have to wait and see. Now if the sea surface temperatures do warm over the next week or so, that doesn't mean that they won't begin to cool once again. If the NAO goes back to a positive phase, we would go back to cooler SSTs.
The SSTs are still cooling in the EPAC. This has been going on for a while now and I am surprised about the longevity of the trends. If it weren't for the above average SSTs in the central Pacific we would definitely be dealing with La Nina. This surely isn't a moderate or strong El Nino, and it doesn't even compare to the 1997 El Nino episode. Chances of El Nino having an impact on the season through November is highly unlikely. Don't let the media hype make you nervous.
Models show a few changes down the road
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/opnl/latest/f12.gif
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/maps/opnl/latest/f180.gif
The 180H operational AVN model shows the 15 degrees celsius line in the central Atlantic much farther north than the 12 hour forecast. This means that the cooler subsiding air will likely begin to diminish, which will allow the to move farther north. Bastardi also mentioned this a few days back. I also mentioned this on a few of the weather forums.
This also relates to the North Atlantic Oscillation forecasted to turn negative. The troughs over the northwest Atlantic stay farther north, allowing a ridge to build to the south. The NAO turning negative is a good sign that the tropics willbegin to heat up rather soon.
FORECASTER: Jason Moreland
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE National Hurricane Center FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com
|
Joe
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 216
Loc: St.Petersburg,FL
|
|
Well not much has caught my attention but the NE gulf is looking intresting over the next few days. My confidence is low on whether it will become tropical system and it's movement. But do feel something could very well come out of this!
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
