James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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This period of increased hurricane activity that we seem to be in began in 1995. What I was wondering is whether the 1994 predictions for the next year were accurate. 1995 had 19/11/4 - did the prediction match this, or was it too low? Did they see this increase in activity coming?
Thanks
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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I know Dr. Gray predicted 12/8/3 in his first forecast in Dec 1994...so he was definately seeing signs of an active season. Despite the active prediction, obviously still fell short of what actually occurred. I'm not sure what other organizations or amateurs predicted at the time.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I think that everyone underpredicted 1995 - remember, 1995 ended up being the second most active year in the Atlantic basin. On the other side of the coin, everyone overpredicted 1997 - the year with one of the strongest El Nino events ever recorded. However, even after the significant downturn in activity of 1997, Dr Gray still felt that the Atlantic basin had started its multidecadal upswing in tropical cyclone activity - and so far he has been remarkably correct.
This upswing in activity is currently projected to last until about 2020. If you are addicted to storm tracking, that means about 17 more seasons (including this one) of higher than average activity. The sobering side is that the locations with a high frequency of landfalls in the 1940s and 1950s will be under the same threat until this current cycle ends.
ED
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HanKFranK
User
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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yeah, but the encouraging fact of the matter is that in spite of nearly a decade of upswing activity, hurricane activity on the u.s. coast has been merely normal, if that. if the atlantic we're a person i would defy it to send something our way.. it's really remarkable that a cat 4 or two haven't hit the u.s. over the last decade.
caveat here is that whether the hits come or not, we probably get plenty to watch until i'm.. gee, 40-ish.
HF 0300z12june
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Yeah HF, most of the big ones have spun the fishes. Earlier this year when we were just casually throwing out predictions, I said this was the year for a major US strike. From what I've been reading, those who are predicting a CAT III or higher to hit the US think it will be in the GOM. I sure hope not, because canes in the gulf can rapidly intensify, and there might not be enough evac time (though has gotten much better IMO). Not that I'm wishing a major hit on anyone, at least a long tracking CV (ala Isabel) would give the US plenty of time to prepare for a strike.
We're overdue, and maybe not this year or even next, but someone's gonna get whalloped down the road. 
Just my $.02
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I looked at some hurricane archives, and since 1970 only 14 major hurricanes have made landfall in the US. They are:-
-Hurricane Celia (1970)
-Hurricane Carmen (1974)
-Hurricane Eloise (1975)
-Hurricane Frederic (1979)
-Hurricane Allen (1980)
-Hurricane Alicia (1983)
-Hurricane Elena (1985)
-Hurricane Hugo (1989)
-Hurricane Andrew (1992)
-Hurricane Opal (1995)
-Hurricane Fran (1996)
-Hurricane Bonnie (1998)
-Hurricane Bret (1999)
-Hurricane Floyd (1999)
Notice that it is 5 years without a major landfall - the longest gaps since 1970 are four years. Surely this means that one is now overdue. Let's hope no one gets hurt this year.
Looks like Bret and Floyd in '99 were rare occurences - the last time more than one major hurricane hit the US was in 1964.
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Actually, Bonnie and Floyd made landfall along the NC coast as category 2s (weakened from major status just prior).
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I stand corrected. Thanks for putting these mistakes right. I got the data off of Unysis, but maybe I didn't look quite close enough. So that takes the tally to just 12 major hurricane landfalls in 34 years.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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You gotta be careful with Unisys. I've pulled data from there, used it to make a post, and gotten corrected later on. is probably a better site, but I don't believe they show tracks. Wunderground also keeps an historical database with tracks, which is probably about as accurate as Unisys.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Thanks for the advice. BTW, did you find that a few weeks ago Unysis lost a lot of their data for the last couple of years? They've gotten a lot of it back now, but they still haven't recognised Agatha yet.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I did notice that and here's why:
"NEWS
Server back up... The web server was rebuilt on 5/23 and is currently running. Some functionality is currently disabled until the system is fully running. Some data from the archive and hurricane pages is missing. Sorry for the inconvenience. "
Taken from the Unisys site.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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