James88
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I thought that the Hurricane/Tropical Storm hit Brazil in March of this year - or have I missed one? Whatever the case, there does seem to have been some very unusual activity south of the Equator in recent months.
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LI Phil
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Odette & Peter both formed in December of last year, and were North Atlantic storms. The SA hurricane formed off of Brazil in March of this year. Both were extremely rare occurences, as we rarely see TS formation that late in the Season, and the SA Hurricane was, if not the only, then one of maybe two or three SA hurricanes. It's probably the only known hurricane, but board members have found instances of some Trop Stroms having developed south of the equator.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
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I suppose we can only be truly sure of these occurences since we've had global satellite coverage, otherwise you can only guess.
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HanKFranK
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trend in recent years has been for a great deal of activity. some seasons are spread out, some have most systems occuring over a 30-40 day period. 1995 and 2001 each had a pair of active periods. what we have right now is neutral... shifting towards positive but only slightly so. waves will most likely define the active periods this year, as has been the trend of recent years.
i think a lot of people put too much stock in how warm/cold the east atlantic is. a great deal of the systems that affect north america originate as waves down there, but not all of them develop at 30w. in fact many get quite a bit further west before doing so.. higher SSTs out there usually means storms peak and recurve well out to sea. how active the upper westerlies in the deep tropics has more to do with systems developing out there than does SSTs, hitting the threshold early often means nothing as the atmosphere can't support what the water temps can.
warmer SSTs in the subtropics are the more likely source of increased early season activity.. the usual suspects this time of year into july are of origin, or waves energy that gets turned up into a mid-latitude system. and we've got plenty of above normal SST patches near 30n across the atlantic.
HF 2311z17june
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LI Phil
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HF,
Great post, as always. I'm still trying to learn about all the dynamics that come into play with each new season (MJO, , , XYZ, etc.). But the more we look at it, the more it seems it is truly random...not that there aren't good analogs, and I think the experts are getting much better at being able to predict them ahead of time...but it still seems that each season is one "to each it's own." Think about it. We've been WAY overdue for a major strike, but haven't seen one (I mean TRULY major) since Andrew and Hugo. Sure, we had Opal & Floyd, but they were waxing (or is that waning?) upon arrival. And those happened (Andy & Hugs) during a decrease in activity cycle. 2004 could be very "active" as far as named storms are considered, but have (thankfully), no US landfallers.
Just as I was wrong with my 6/14 call for Alex, I'll stick with my #'s and still call for a major US landfall, though I sure don't want one. Heck, we could only have four named storms but if one of those is a CAT IV, then I'd rather have 16 with no US landfalls.
Sorry about the babbling, just a slow time so I felt like imparting this diatribe.
Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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javlin
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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It's really amazing when you look at these loops.I see mass in motion is the first thought that comes to mind.The molecular structure and bond.The air out there is considered a fluid and the molecular bond of water is great.You have forces in action moving these little particles of water into significant masses.If you were to totally remove one item from the global equation like an ULL or front the chain reaction is far reaching.When I hear HF and Steve talk about things in the Pacific and it's impact on us down the road this is the only way I can visulize it.Just an observationl
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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A good observation! Has anyone noticed that if you watch the SSTs loop, the cold tongue in the E. Pacific appears to be extending west? Does this mean anything?
Also, the wave in the central Atlantic seems to be just a little better organised this morning. It seems quite vigourous. so it could be one to watch over the next few days as it makes it way west towards the Caribbean.
Edited by James88 (Fri Jun 18 2004 03:01 PM)
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Rabbit
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Loc: Central Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html
there is a definate subtropical storm in the northeast atlantic, and it fits all of the criteria, and it is still not classified
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James88
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There doesn't seem to be anything about it in the Tropical Weather Discussion, either.
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Anonymous
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Is there anything to the mass of storms in the southern Caribbean or is it just typical tropical storms for the day that will die off later tonight. Looks as if it is trying to move northward towards the Yucatan. Just curious. I guess hoping for a lttle action. Thanks.
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James88
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Looks like it is currently moving inland, so it will probably die off tonight, but maybe if it re-emerges over water it will regenerate. However, I wouldn't expect it to be long-lived.
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Rabbit
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Loc: Central Florida
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it only goes to 32 north unfortunately, and this system is at about 41, so it will likely not be mentioned if it does not develop
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James88
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Looks like it is just skirting the Azores and moving towards Europe. I wonder if we'll feel anything in the UK in a few days.
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Sorry guys - this northern system is not tropical in origin - not even subtropical. It is a north Atlantic gale, complete with warm front, cold front and occluded front - with a wave on the cold front. Satellite imagery easily depicts the entire frontal system associated with this gale.
Cheers,
ED
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Anonymous
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What about the storms in the western Caribbean? I have noticed they have been in that area all day. Looks to be moving NW or NNW towads southern gulf. Any ideas. 
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javlin
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Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I would not expect a whole lot for the time being every thing seems stagnit.The ULL in the Bahamas has not moved at all today causing shear to the W into the GOM.This will hinder any development of the system in W Carib along with it's proximity to land.If I am not mistaken would it not take something coming over the to move this picture?
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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There seems to be a mid or upper level circulation near 14.5N 83.5W at 18/01Z - and just about stationary for the past few hours. That location is over land, but very close to the coast. Upper level shear in that area is forecast to decline in the 24 to 48 hour timeframe. The area is probably worth taking a peek at from time to time over the weekend.
Cheers,
ED
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Cycloneye
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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SW and western caribbean are hot spots early in the season as climatology says so I will be watching that area.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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SOI has strongly reversed back to negative. We're liable to see another invest out there.
1-Jun-2004 1014.48 1010.45 19.20 13.64 -0.21
2-Jun-2004 1014.73 1012.15 9.00 14.47 -0.08
3-Jun-2004 1013.14 1012.75 -6.30 14.15 -0.18
4-Jun-2004 1013.51 1012.50 -1.90 13.48 -0.29
5-Jun-2004 1014.91 1012.15 10.30 13.45 -0.35
6-Jun-2004 1015.31 1012.60 9.90 13.75 -0.37
7-Jun-2004 1013.83 1013.75 -8.50 12.70 -0.53
8-Jun-2004 1012.83 1012.70 -8.10 11.25 -0.67
9-Jun-2004 1012.56 1012.15 -6.10 10.24 -0.75
10-Jun-2004 1013.20 1012.00 -0.60 10.23 -0.72
11-Jun-2004 1015.63 1013.45 6.20 10.33 -0.67
12-Jun-2004 1015.26 1013.85 0.80 10.04 -0.76
13-Jun-2004 1013.60 1014.60 -16.10 9.28 -1.10
14-Jun-2004 1013.90 1014.50 -13.20 8.30 -1.55
15-Jun-2004 1013.76 1015.00 -17.70 6.87 -2.05
16-Jun-2004 1013.59 1015.60 -23.20 5.42 -2.59
17-Jun-2004 1013.05 1016.30 -31.90 3.81 -3.25
18-Jun-2004 1011.96 1015.80 -36.00 2.16 -3.88
19-Jun-2004 1010.31 1015.10 -42.70 0.17 -4.53
Sometimes there is a couple of weeks lag time from when the goes strongly negative to when a a pulse of warm water moves eastward from the SW pacific. Nothing from there is showing up on the SSTA's yet SSTA's
Warmest water relative to average in the Atlantic right now is WSW of Spain. There are some pockets of warm water along the Eastern Seaboard and in Big Bend area Florida. One would think that Western Europe has a shot at a curving Cape Verde this year if the water in the Eastern Atlantic remains as warm as it is now relative to averages.
The energy along the coast of Central America is interesting not for development potential but for the evidence of heat buildup. There's supposed to be a trof split around day #5 which will back into Mexico and knock back some of the heights on the SW Ridge which will be followed by the typhoon recurviture which should cut into it further. That tells me SW Atlantic Ridge wlil probably be strengthening. My hunch on any pattern change or pulse development after the trof split puts any real action west of here, and wherever it is, a tropical flow should at least set back up N/S or NW/SE. In any event, I'm going to be watching the Gulf and Caribbean for the next week or two.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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steve, thanks for mentioning . i hadn't thought about the long paddock in a while... everybody who wants a heads up on development potential should follow that index. and have been the best week-to-week predictive tools i've been introduced to. if anybody has a link to sites that track other indexes (pna, nao/ao, etc), by all means give it up to the crowd. they're better at telling you where the storm will go, once it forms.
i have an observation that i lack the meteorological savvy to decisively interpret, but do think it will play into the seasonal pattern... SSTa's in the bering sea are well above normal, and will most likely contribute to anomalous ridging in alaska. across the continent cold SSTa's are dominant near newfoundland (anomalously warm to the south). then there's that big positive SSTa patch near spain further east. this configuration will at least play into our summer season longwave pattern.. i envision mean trough positions near being deep in the plains states, a shallow one near 50w, then another in eastern europe. of course wavelengths are much shorter in the summer and this is probably not on the mark... but watching the longwave pattern respond to SSTa's should be an educational experience this summer.
steve mentioned that a recurving hurricane might get SST support most of the way to europe if the waters keep heating the way they have out there. a system recurving that hard would have a tough time not undergoing transition on the way.. and honestly i don't want to hear all the global warming doom-criers shrieking about hurricanes hitting brazil and portugal in the same year. so i'm intrigued by the idea, but won't entertain it further than that.
since i'm near the topic of climate trends, arctic sea ice is receding faster and further than the short record of 'normal', though it does this every summer like clockwork as of late.
HF 1708z19june
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