James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Great post HanKFranK. The idea of a system recurving towards western Europe is certainly an intriguing one. It will be interesting to see if that scenario plays out this year. The last time a system came near to Europe (tropical or ) was in 1998, I think. , Jeanne and Karl all passed near the Azores and made their way through to Europe. It would be a strange coincidence if this happened again, as it could be one of the same names as last time.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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I didn't mean to imply that the EU would get hit by a hurricane or tropical storm. But anything could easily be curving in from the south rather than from the west as usual. The SSTA's on the eastern side of the pond bear watching.
As for the , should it happen to stay as far negative as it has the last few days over the next 2-3 weeks, we're going to have to start thinking along the lines of El Nino. I don't see it, but it can't discounted either. The Pacific is decidedly neutral, but when the is at -42 in June, it can't be completely ignored. The was very negative in April, reversed back to positive in May, and has reversed again the last week or so to sharply negative. For the climate buffs, here's a little note from Joe B about the the upcoming few days. He's out of town until Wed. and is beginning to hint that he might have to hedge his bet on a +NAO and neutral for the year. He's giving a headsup (sorta) that the Western Gulf would be the next place to watch. It should be faiirly wet in the deep south in the meantime as moisture from dying fronts and the SW Atlantic Ridge.
While the current run of the models of the next 10-15 days is really right down the pipe for a pretty fair score for June, one can not assume anything in this business. I am concerned about the tanking the way it is. Just because it has done this before and come back, does not mean it has to this time. I am still on the road, but return to town Wednesday and will be able to spend the time needed to decide if such things as my hurricane idea and summer forecast needs a closer look. But one thing is for sure, the resumption of bulldog tactics starts Wednesday.
Now that does not mean I am not looking now, but one always prefers home court advantage if one has to make a stand.
Zone 7,8,11,12. Trouble with T. The problem now is that the push from the west in the subtropics stops the trof splitting that occurs when ridges can pump over the subtropics behind any northern branch features. We see the drag of northern branch features that leave pieces behind, but now they are being influenced by whats drifting in from behind. In the meantime, the pulse down in the is not able to dislodge the southwest atlantic ridge. So one sees the fight going on here.. partially recruved typhoon showing us a ridge fairly far west in the Pacific...support downstream for the mean trof, both by the late spring wetness and now blocking coming back across Greenland, the breaking through from the west south of 30 north, and the ridge off the south atlantic coast supported by a myriad of ideas that have been looked at over the last couple of months, which if reviewed now, would simply be bloviating.
But why lump these guys together. Cause a heck of alot of rain may fall here the next 7-10 days. Think what is going on....fronts can get in there ( witness right now), deep tropical moisture from two sources, one the atlantic ridge, the other the mean trof which basically is an extension from northern Europe back through the lakes and then tailing southwest, and the dark horse for 12 and 8, the tropics.
Now the only player on the field, and it can be argued, this is the 3rd string water boy, is the wave over central America. The idea now is that as next week goes on, this works its way into the western gulf and that we have to watch for it trying to get a hybridish type look. Again, like the previous 2 systems, its a case trying to nail a pulse, which because of disruptions in the may not be there now. But the early season has never been one to have the negative cause a development problem and quite the contrary, may be a positive factor in that it can supply the spark that can get things started. Enough on that for now. Suffice it say, the next 10 days have big ticket wet written all over then here.
FWIW, Zone 12 is Texas, 8 is LA/MS/AL/AR/TN.
Have a good weekend.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Hurricane
Registered User
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Would it be possible for a tropical storm to hit the madeira islands?
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Great discussion there Steve abut the and el nino etc but I am with you about not seeing any signs of el nino around the equatorial pacific at this time in june and being that way I see neutral conditions for thru the peak of the season.After that peak of the season has passed then we will have to watch those pacific waters to see if it begins to warm.I am with the 28th of june as my date for Alex to form but I can say that it doesn't seem that anything will form at that date and my guess is a lost cause.This 2004 season looks like a late season one meaning starting more late and finishing late in november but time will tell.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Sun Jun 20 2004 01:18 AM)
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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No problem cyc, something to talk about after catching a drinking buzz.
>>everybody who wants a heads up on development potential should follow that index
Agreed. 2 posts back when I first looked at it, I was wondernig if we'd be seeing an invest. Sure enough, 99W is up on the site.
HF,
Every time I search for the PNA and the NAO (full model variances) I can only find the annual ones. I'll work on getting that information over the next couple of days and post them when I do.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Alright,
Here's a link to the from the last 4 months for the NAO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html
SWEET! Here it is! Ensemble mean forecasts
Ensemble Mean NAO Forecast
Here's the MRF NAO Forecast
MRF NAO Forecast
Now to see if we can find the PNA.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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Seems the Hurricane Season isn't starting any time this week so you all have a green light to spend father's day with whoever you need to without wondering what the sats look like.
Nothing is happening anywhere that begs your attention in the tropical world.
SW Carib flares... off and on, nothing happening down there to write home about. A wave is again headed into the shear zone, lots of luck. Bahamas and Gulf look clear for sailing.
Nice upper low interacting with remnants of our old wave in the Turks that is fun to watch but dont see it turning into anything.
Hope your children, grandchildren, nieces and nehpews, the kid next door or your girlfriend's kids got you a nice beautiful book about hurricanes with lots of beautiful pictures. If not.. buy yourself one for because you all deserve it.
take care... be well.. til something happens
Bobbi
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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher
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Loc: Polk County Florida
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Happy Father's Day to all. May you live long enough to be a pain in the neck to your children!!!
Now how about that twist in the Bahamas. Upper level, lower level or just a figment of the Satellite's imagination?
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Good or bad, weather is all there is.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Loc: Central Florida
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its in the upper levels, low level all easterly winds
btw, strong swirl over nicaragua, may have become depression if it had another 24 hours over water
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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one system on pacific , and it has outflow boundaries, so it wont develop because there is no inflow.
the only other thing is the system I mentioned earlier, moving into the pacific.
if that does not develop, we may have a year with no pacific june storm, which could signal a very active atlantic season
also, water temps in the lower 60s upwelling off of south america with a tongue of cooler-than-surroubnding-water temps extending west; could signal a la nina
http://www.wunderground.com/MAR/sepacm.html
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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A year with no June storm in the E. Pacific could have interesting consequences. The last time it happened was in 1969 when Tropical Storm Ava formed on 1st July. That year was a big one in the Atlantic basin - 18 tropical systems, 12 of which were hurricanes, 5 of which were major hurricanes (including Camille).
Of course there are other years - 1995, in which there were only 10 systems for the E. Pacific, but the Atlantic had 21. Also, there was 1996, where there were only 9 storms in the E. Pacific, but 9 hurricanes and 6 major ones in the Atlantic.
If there is no storm in June it could be a signal of a busier year. But remember, there are still ten days left in June, and a lot can happen in that time.
Still looks as though we'll be going without a storm in the Atlantic this June.
Edited by James88 (Sun Jun 20 2004 08:20 PM)
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HanKFranK
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steve, i need to get my thinking straight. telegraphed the mean bermuda ridge strength somewhat, if i remember correctly. also there was something about how it altered the SST trends in the equatorial pacific. wasn't it negative meant westerly flow, positive meant easterly flow? and didn't westerly mean trend to warming ? gotta help me out here.. i understood it at one time..
i've been looking at old global SST anomaly charts, comparing them to what we've been seeing so far this year. two that look most familiar are 1990 and 2003, to this year. wouldn't i just pick a pair of active years...
actually with the neutral signal it's hard to have a definitive feel. if el nino is coming on, it's going to have to hurry to cap the season. right now it's all systems go for an active year. james' mention of the quiet eastpac is also something to consider. that's if it keeps up (ten days to go for a no-storm june).
every year it's something different.
HF 0009z21june
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Loc: Orlando, Florida
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No one needs another Camille.... That is a storm that I would never want to experience again ever...
I hope that we all learned a lot of lessons with that one.
If they say go.... GO
I will be watching the Pacific for the next 10 days for certain
Happy Fathers Day to all the DAD'S
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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First look at this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Than look at this one:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TJBQ.html
Looks like the winds down San Juan have picked up 10MPH in the last hour.
Something coming together???
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wild cat
Unregistered
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30.09 seems high
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Rick In Mobile
Unregistered
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I enjoy reading the posts and would comment more, if I had the experience and knowledge to add anything credible to things. One thing I have noticed about the speculations....
the fact that NO one is mentioning global warming, and the impact it may be having on hurricane activity...or more importantly...hurricane intensity.
When I met my wife in 79...they talked about Camille....when Frederic hit....they drove through there a few days after....
toiilet seats in the middle of oak trees that were completely stripped of all leaves.....looked like an atom bomb hit...
we are due...for a 5....I think...smewhere along the emerald coast...from New Orleans to Panama City....one will hit...and THAT is inevitable.
Here's another topic....Hypercanes.....are they possible?....
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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According to some scientists, it is quite unlikely that a hypercane would form, even in the most dire global warming situation. To create such a catastrophic storm, parts of the ocean would have to reach temperatures of at least 100 degrees. Only the impact of a large asteroid hitting the tropical ocean or a massive undersea volcano could generate such intense heating. It might have happened at least once in our past, though. A few scientists believe that hypercanes caused by these things could have contributed to massive global extinctions in the past.
So, a hypercane is theoretically possible, but it would need a huge trigger to produce the conditions needed to support one.
As for global warming, a number of scientists have dismissed links between tropical activity and the phenomenon, but in the decades to come, perhaps we will see some evidence of a link.
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LI Phil
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Rick, LOL!
Bit early in the season for the CAT V discussion, no? 
James, nice research. Here's how a hypercane is described: A hypercane is a hypothetical class of hurricane that would be formed by an asteroid impact. They are also a possible consequence of global warming.
"It would be a phenomenal storm: 20 miles high, with winds approaching 500 miles an hour.
Jupiter's Great Red Spot is labeled as a hypercane."
I'm not buying the global warming for a minute. An asteroid, maybe. But global warming? Causing a 500 MPH hurricane. Puh-lease.
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Apparently, a hypercane could also leave a colossal amount of debris and moisture in the atmosphere, which could disrupt the climate and eat away at the ozone layer. The hole we've already got is enough as it is! It's lucky that hypercanes are quite unlikely events, because Hypercane Bonnie or Hypercane Hermine would be a bit much!
I have to agree with you Phil about global warming. Surely it would take decades for the number of storms to become noticeably higher than normal.
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Rick in Mobile
Unregistered
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never too early to talk about cat 5 canes....
there is no "evidence" to suggest that global warming is causing hurricanes to be more intense or more frequent, but if temperature is a main barometer for them...then how could anyone with reasonable intelligence surmise otherwise? Any only mildly exhaustive search on the internet concerning global warming and the greenhouse effects....and future climactic changes, will yield very alarming possibilities. Remember, no one in the political field can "allow" the facts of global warming to interefere with the economic and political uncertainties of this age. I say that because there is overwhelming evidence to suggest global warming is real...and "waiting" for scientific proof is like putting a frog in a pan of water and slowly cooking him to death. You can boil him alive, and he won't notice it until it is too late.....the same for global warming...happening slow enough...so that the catastrophic end result is almost assured...
positive, isn't it?
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