LI Phil
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This was posted this afternoon on accuwx:
We continue to see a relatively quiet weather pattern across the tropics. We are tracking four tropical waves. They are located along 24 west, 58 west, 71 west and 84 west. The waves are generally south of 18 north and are moving westward at about 15 kts or about 6 degrees longitude per day. The wave along 71 continues to be the more impressive wave. However, there has been no change in the overall structure of the wave over the past several hours. This wave will be roughly from eastern Jamaica southward to eastern Panama by tomorrow afternoon. Some global computer models take this wave into the southwest Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday. This could lead to an increase in clouds, showers and thunderstorms over south and perhaps eastern Texas this weekend.
There is no mention anywhere of development, but I suppose it bears watching.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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HanKFranK
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expect that would be the last chance for anything in the atlantic in june. can't find much in the way of model support for it. an mcc drifting off the texas coast, a max on whatever part of the wave gets there, or both acting together would probably be needed. should flip negative (that's a plus for development) soon here.. anything is possibly, nothing is likely. no invest on it (yet) but there's a decent disturbance south of mexico in the epac.. moving a bit quickly.. whether it develops or not, could signal that things in the atlantic will improve.
the topic ran its course, but i was surprised by how many folks here have cared to look in to global warming and form an opinion--something substantive in the relative void (that's carefree people living unawares) between the green fringe (plus willingly sycophantic media outlets) and commercial lobbies (plus big business' silver-tongued p.r. people). well, i shouldn't be that surprised by the enthusiasm.. this is a weather forum.
a'ite steve h., i promise not to go too far off topic again.. today. scouts' honor.
HF 2339z22june
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LI Phil
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>>> i was surprised by how many folks here have cared to look in to global warming and form an opinion--something substantive in the relative void (that's carefree people living unawares) between the green fringe (plus willingly sycophantic media outlets) and commercial lobbies (plus big business' silver-tongued p.r. people). well, i shouldn't be that surprised by the enthusiasm
HF, brilliant post as always. LOL. I "tried" to get the topic moved, but it seems this is the only forum where people consistently respond. And since it's slow, maybe Ed'll leave the posts here. You're right about the passion. I think we all acknowledge there is such a thing as global warming, but not to the extent of the tree-hugging hollywood crew portray it, and it is much more serious than the Limbaugh/Cheney/Bush folks would like us to believe. I for one do not believe that we'll be seeing any hypercanes in any of our lifetimes, and as HF so brilliantly pointed out on page 9, if it ever got to the point where we COULD have a hypercane, that would probably be the last of our worries.
OK, no more on GW (global warming not "Dubya"). I will reiterate that I bet it would make a good separate forum piece so Ed, if you think of starting something new...and want to start with the GW posts, go for it.
As "the topic is tropic", I don't think we're going to see much action for a couple of weeks, even with the accuwx info. A late start to the season doesn't mean a slow season, as several posters have pointed out. OK, that's it for now.
Steve H., echoing HF, no more on GW for today.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve Hirschberg
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Oh, Its slow now and I don't really care. I was just concerned that it might turn into a slug fest. Its a hot topic of debate (no pun intended). To me its a cyclic thing, but who knows. The ball is rolling now, so if it is armageddon in disguise, what's done is done. Some things just are what they are, and if the culprits are fossil fuels and such, it will boil down to the almighty dollar/dinar. No control over that. But back to the tropics, maybe the GOM will provide something soon. It may be slow for a bit though, but I don't think we'll have to wait for the third week in August this year. Cheers!!
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javlin
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You know I would almost say an ULL but it looks different.Nothing to be concerned about but an answer would be nice and HF mcc heard it last year.I seem to remember it had something to do with weather complex over land.Enlighten me please.Thanks.
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James88
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The activity in the GOM seems to be dying off a bit. Meanwhile, there has been an increase in convection with a tropical wave in the Caribbean, but it is showing very few signs of organisation, so don't expect too much.
On another note, there is a tropical wave in the E. Pacific that is being monitored for signs of possible development. Perhaps this means that June will have a storm out there. Still, very quiet on the Atlantic side.
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Anonymous
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I think that were going to wait until next month for something develop. The upper level winds in the Carribean aren't letting anything get its act together. The GOM is favorable, but there's nothing there. I'm betting the second or third week of June for the first storm.
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tornado00
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FYI, the message above this was me, not nobody. lol
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Derek Sutherland
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LI Phil
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JB is back and tomorrow he'll be updating his hurricane forecast, both in writing and on video. woo-hoo!
Here's a snippet of what he said today:
"The guts of the tropical wave over Central America has worked its way into the Pacific, but a tongue extends northward into the Gulf. In the meantime, the front has gotten so far south into Texas that the normal cranking south to southeast flow as been interrupted. The point is the western Gulf will have to be watched over the next several days until some semblance of normalcy returns. What is most important now is the abnormally pumped up amount of water around with a front in there and a low-level south-southeast connection feeding in will lead to enough rain in some places near the Texas Gulf coast that would make a tropical storm jealous. Whether it can feed back in the coastal waters and start some kind of hybrid development is right now a secondary point compared to the threat of rainfall in the area this front is in, where amounts may reach 10-15 inches by Saturday for some."
He also went off on a rant about the being so strongly negative, hinting that we could "technically" be in an El Nino situation. Tomorrow he will elaborate more but "Suppose an El Nino evolves and "holds down" the season as was portrayed in some circles. But this time, the two category 4 hurricanes within three days of land on the forecast do hold together and hit. Would an El Nino have held down the season? I say this because the current 90-day is -5, and technically that means we are in an El Nino situation in the Tahiti-Darwin area."
The tropics may be quiet but JB's sure heating up.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
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July certainly seems to be the most reasonable time for the first storm to form, because as you said, conditions aren't really favourable for development now. Maybe if something makes it into the Gulf we could have Alex, but there doesn't look like much chance of this happening anytime soon.
Just looking at the Hurricane Alley website, and they expect two storms to form in July. One in the Gulf, and one in the Atlantic of the East Coast. They also expect it to be an active CV year - they forecast 6 to form in the open Atlantic. It will be interesting to see if this plays out.
Hurricane Alley 2004 Forecast
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Wild Cat
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I know when there is an El Nino there are strong winds but I don't think that is an issue, so what is causing it. Maybe Hank can explain or someone else. Thank you.
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Steve hirsch.
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Mainly because it is June and we have a trough moving into the western Caribbean and a low hanging out near the eastern tip of Cuba/Caicos, with a building ridge in the Atlantic funneling deep tropical moisture into the SE states. There is a nice circulation at about 30W today, but its so damn dry out in the Atlantic due to the ridging and consequently subsidence. But wildcat, nothing unusual. The tropics will heat up in the next 4 - 6 weeks; maybe sooner. Cheers!!
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Anonymous
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JB might be ranting El Nino but not this site:http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
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Steve
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He's not ranting about El Nino, he's just back in the saddle. The does produce a warming pulse and burst of westerlies over time, often enhancing a southern stream. What Joe is saying is that it needs to be taken into account if it continues as negative as it has been this month. I agree with that. After a strongly negative April, strongly positive May, we're now in a negative June (more negative recently than over the entire month). I attribute it to the typhoon burst over the last several days (and another one or two likely to form by the weekend). Also, they've had some "arctic" (antarctic) air in Austraila. Remember, it's winter over there right now.
As discussed last week, I see neutral conditions for the forseeable future. But El Nino conditions in some of the western zones obviously can't be ruled out if a) the remains in the -30 range and b) warmer SSTA's start showing up in the next week or so near Austraila. I think it's less than 10% that all the regions in the Pacific go warmer by September or October, but it wouldn't be a stretch (say 40-50%) if some of the zones did.
We'll have to wait and see. In the meantime, the indexes from 6/1 through today have been:
19.2
9.0
-6.3
-1.9
10.3
9.9
-8.5
-8.1
-6.1
-0.6
6.2
0.8
-16.1
-13.2
-17.7
-23.2
-31.9
-36.0
-42.7
-44.4
-39.6
-28.0
-28.4
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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>>> He also went off on a rant about the being so strongly negative, hinting that we could "technically" be in an El Nino situation.
That was my earlier post...said he was ranting about the , not El Nino. Guess your comment wasn't directed at me, Steve , but rather the anon poster. 
Tropics sure are quiet.
Steve, with the recent west-pac typhoon (and there's another one forming), do you see any teleconnections for us, say 2 weeks from now? The gulf is ripe for development, of course, but do you see any activity in the west carrib as a result of this?
Thanks,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
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Not really. Last week I pointed out that anything to watch would be Gulf or WC, but I don't see either as a particular hotspot. The western Gulf is possible if there's anything that gets spinning down there before the front washes out, but that's about it. The wave that brought all the showers to Hispan(i)ola, is splitting. A piece of energy is heading off NNW, while the axis continues west. The piece heading up is following in the wake of an ULL around 77W which is also headed NW. In the Gulf, there is an ULL centered around 86/26 which will probably prevent anything from happening east of 90 in the near term.
I'd say chances right now for anything the rest of the month are pretty slim and none. But with the SE/S flow interrupted on the Texas Coast (as per your Joe B recap), it's not impossible that something could brew up along the TX Gulf Coast. I doubt it, but the moisture is available.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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Steve,
Thanks. That's pretty much what I thought.
So, are you or I going to post JB's updated hurricane forecast tomorrow am?
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Wild Cat
Unregistered
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Thank you for your answer concerning the winds. But, that leads me to another question. How is a different from an upper low. Is there a difference or is one a fancy name.
And, how does an upper low affect circulation forming at the surface?
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Steve
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I'm not posting it. All that stuff is proprietary (and they'll put an extra disclaimer on that). If you put some of it in your own words, you'd probably be okay.
As for the question about lows, they are different from the more concentric ULL's that move around the basin. The lows are broad swaths shaped kind of like a script capital "V" and are usually strongest (relative to effects on the Tropical Season) in EL Nino Years. I don't have time to find you the best explanation and modeling, but if you go to Google, search for or Trupical Upper Tropospheric Trough. Here's the results from the Google Search. Browse them as you will:
Google Search for Tropical upper...
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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I wasn't going to post the entire article...last thing I want to do is get kicked off of accuwx. Rather, I was going to either post small snippets or "summarize" his thoughts. Actually, what might be even better, and less risky, will be to watch the video and then post away. He teased us a bit this morning, so it will be real interesting to see what he says tomorrow.
At least we'll have something to talk about during this dead time.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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