Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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A lo is an Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough that is at 250 - 500 mb. How that differs from an ULL I frankly don't remember right now. Whether its higher or lower in elevation, or if it is positioned between two high pressure area and somewhat anchored may be the key. Someone on this board should have a quick answer. The short of it is that they seem to be very reluctant to move anywhere fast and can act as a buzzsaw to tropical disturbances/Storms. Interesting to note today that the low currently in the Caribbean is split into two areas; one in the Bahamas and one in the eastern GOM. The one in the Bahamas is expected to move north as the trough coming into the SE moves in. That may leave an opportunity for the wave near Haiti/DR to develop as it gets in the western caribbean. Long shot, but possible. Anyhow, now that I haven't answered your question at all, I'll leave to the experts here. Cheers!!
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LI Phil
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TUTT explained, from NOAA:
A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A low is a that has completely cut-off. lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". s are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. s are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of harmful vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones. There are also suggestions that s can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere.
Hope that helps...
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Wild Cat
Unregistered
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Thank you. So a can split into a V pattern if I understand it and it can split into two areas such as the gulf and the bahamas? I see the phrase used frequently however I'm never sure how they really differ. I'll read through the links you sent and hope to understand it better.
An exaplanation of how the winds work on different levels might be helpful at sometime around here.
The atmosphere is like a 3 ring circus with something going on at all levels.
Thank you to both the Stevens and everyone else who answered the question. Google, why didn't I think of that. Thanks.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Looks like we're in the middle of a quiet patch. There is very little to speak of in the tropics - there's some convection in the Gulf associated with an upper level trough and several waves throughout the basin, but none of them with any significant thunderstorm activity or convection. There is also some waning thunderstorm activity in the Bay of Campeche.
Still, we are nearly through to July, so perhaps Alex will form in the next 2-3 weeks (or possibly more).
Things seem to be heating up in the E. Pacific - there are two invests, each of which has the potential to become a tropical depression in the next couple of days. Blas and Celia could be there in a few days. Maybe these disturbances are a precursor to some Atlantic activity in the near future.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Bastardi issued his eagerly awaited landfall intensity forecast today. I read the text but I haven't had time to view the videos yet. His synopsis is fairly interesting this year as many members of this board, if he verifies, are going to see at least tropical storm conditions and possibly more. You're getting a super condensed version here. If you want it all, you can go sign up for the 30 day free trial at Accuweather. The way the landfall intensity scale works is that numbers are assigned based on pressure at landfall with 50% of the 's call weighted in to diffuse any bias or agenda.
1 = 1000-1010mb (T.D.)
2 = 990-1000mb (T.S.)
4 = 975-990mb (Cat 1)
8 = 960-975mb (Cat 2)
16 = 940-960mb (Cat 3)
32 = 920-940mb (Cat 4)
64 = < 920mb (Cat 5)
He had originally hinted that his landfall # (based on the pressure of a storm at landfall) was set to be somewhat above normal (normal = 36.7 points). But it looks like he ramped it up even higher than last year and values overall landfall intensity for the US and Canada at quite a bit more than double the average.
Joe's highest threat area this year is Cape San Blas southward to Key Largo on the Gulf Coast side of Florida. The implications are for the equivalent of a major hurricane hit, though he can't say that it's going to be an aggregate of more than one storm or simply a Cat 3. The second highest potential (Cat 2 aggregate) is for the Texas Gulf Coast. 3rd highest is the coasts of NC & SC with > Cat 2 aggregate potential. 4th highest threat is the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cape San Blas.
It should be noted that no area from Brownsville to the Canadian Maritimes is listed below normal for the year though Joe sees Louisiana and SE Florida only as normal. That means every other zone should see effects (and that doesn't mean a direct landfall because the effects from a landfall outside of a zone can still affect that zone) from the tropics at greater than normal.
Anyway, if you want the meat of the forecast, go ahead and sign up for their 30 day free trial. You can always cancel it after your 30 days are up, but you get the benefit of the forecast as well as 4 weeks worth of streaming videos and columns. You can't go wrong with that.
Enjoy.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Great post Steve. After looking at all the data and forecasts, the general consensus does seem to call for a major landfall in the Gulf this season. When you consider that the last major landfall in the US was Bret in 1999, it certainly seems as though a hit is overdue. While I do not wish it to happen, the data is hard to argue with.
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Wild Cat
Unregistered
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I bet people ask you all the time if you are really joe bastardi.
I think it would make sense logically to sign up for the free service towards the end of August and into the September period as everyone says its going to be a late starting year.
I don't understand the math but either way a lot of work was put into it.
Thanks for posting because I haven't signed up for mr bastardi's site yet.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Heh. Not me. I've been watching these things since I was a kid. Joe is just a guru out there who you can learn a ton of unconventional information from. I know I have. HankFrank, probably the best poster on this site, would tell you the same thing. I couldn't go into any more detail because I don't want to break my terms of service with Accuweather. Also, I don't want to sell out Joe. But he's got me to the point where I might be posting something I'm looking at the night before he comes out with something similar in his column. It's kind of the old idea that you can lead a horse to water... Me and my loud mouth/keyboard, I'm willing to take a drink.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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I really can't add much to what Steve posted concerning Joe B. Great recap, you hit one out of the park. All I can add is that JB's "analog" years are 1960, 1985 and 1992. Those should put the fear of god into anyone from Texas to Maine. 1960 gave us Donna & Ethel (Donna whalloped Florida, then went on to slam NC and LI, while Ethel slammed into Mississippi). 1985 (a year I'll never forget) gave us Elena (LA/MS), Gloria (LI) and Kate (Fla. Panhandle). And of course 1992 produced Andrew (S. Fla & LA).
Joe's pretty convinced the US will see a CAT III or higher hit, and the area most at risk, as Steve stated above, is for the big bend south to the keys.
Statistically, we're overdue for a major strike. Everybody stay prepared and if they tell you to leave, GO!
Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Kevin
Weather Master
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Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Checking in...things are still quiet...
Yes, I have Accuwx Pro service as well. I read the forecast this morning, and honestly my jaw just about dropped when I saw his intensity ratings and highest landfall risk areas. Looks my area could be in for some action this season if the western Florida ideas in JB's forecast verify  !
Top three highest threat areas are Florida WC, NC Coast, and Texas, as Steve said. And the interesting thing is, SE Florida has a very average chance of getting hit this year. Heck, even Jason, Rob and I didn't see anything about SE Florida chances that really stood out for this season. That's not saying it can't happen though.
The most compelling evidence (imo) that he cited came with the impending negative PDO. Basically, US landfalling activity skyrocketed from the 40's to the 60's when the PDO was negative. This oscillation has been trending towards negative since December, and it is believed amongst some meteorologists that the negative phase of this oscillation will cause more severe landfalling hurricane activity in the next 20 years.
Hey, with all of the activity we've been having since 1995, eventually we are going to have to see a string of seasons where the landfalls are just as incredible as the activity levels. It's bound to happen eventually. Could that sort of thing happen this season?
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Cary, NC
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Just read and listened to JB's forecast...can't argue with him on much, for the most part his landfall predictions are similar to what Jason, Kevin, and I forecasted in our seasonal a month ago. Our highest risk US region is from MS to the Big Bend (likely 1 major)...then others such as TX, west FL, and NC all at lesser risks (weaker NS hits)...and then regions such as LA and east FL where we don't expect anything period. I can't say that I really agree with JB's high probability of a west FL major, but the western side of FL in general...more likely the Panhandle...at a greater risk I CAN agree with.
It'll be interesting to see what happens. Regardless of precise landfall points, there's very little doubt we'll be on our toes a lot this season.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Great posts Rob & Kevin. It's always good to see you guys on the web.
I pretty much agree with Rob. I think the MS/AL line across to Cedar Key is most likely to see an IH. In my guesscast, I had 2 named storm hits with the potential for a strong to intense hurricane between Mobile Bay and Panama City Beach. This was based on the 1995 analog and corresponding double whammy that Pensacola got. I had the West Coast of FL south of Cedar Key with the potential for 1 hit (a tropical storm or weak Cat 1). I also agree with everyone downplaying Louisiana. While we'll definitely see some effects this year (I've got 1-2 weak hits between Lafayette and Pascagoula), I doubt we're going to be the ones creamed.
Anyway, we're only 79 days until September 11th which, if memory serves me correctly, is not only the date of the attacks on the WTC, it's also the historical peak of the season.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Actually, Its SE Florida that's had the most hits from intense hurricanes, and I believe they are at the highest risk this season. The west coast has had their share, but with expected ridging to hold strong in the SW Atlantic, West Palm south through hurricane alley seem to be the likely spots IMO. These west bound storms also continue west, and will threaten Texas and Louisiana. To say SE Florida doesn't have a higher than average threat is ludicrous. Later in the season I see the west coast threat.
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LI Phil
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Kevin & Rob, great posts. Steve H. made I think an excellent point about SE Fla. In JBs "analog" years, 1960 & 1992 each had SE Fla taking CAT IV hits. (or CAT V for Andrew). Donna did the recurve thingy and landfalled in NC and LI, and Andrew chugged west. As JB pointed out, every area on the East Coast and Gulf is at increased risk this year, just some more than others.
My area seems to be ranked next to last in terms of risk (fortunately), but Donna and Gloria from Joe's analogs hit LI very hard. So who's to say?
I also note in Rob, Jason & Kevin's forecast, the Virginia to NY and NY to Maine regions are not expected to see any landfalls, although they do allude to a near-miss for Cape Cod (which by definition would probably also be a near miss for LI, unless the storm was not in the process of recurving at the time).
Looks like we're looking at a whole-lotta-nuttin' for the next week-10 days, so the timing of JBs forecast was actually rather good.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Wild Cat
Unregistered
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"It's kind of the old idea that you can lead a horse to water... Me and my loud mouth/keyboard, I'm willing to take a drink."
So, you aren't Joe and you aren't Mr. Ed either. Nice to know someone is drinking water round here.
Thanks for being you. 
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Jason M wrote this discussion... FEW indications we may have to start watching the Mean Development Region more closely in the upcoming weeks...
(unofficial) IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 24 June 2004 - 8:20 PM EDT
Shower and thunderstorm activity in the northwest Gulf of Mexico is associated with tropical moisture being drawn northward into a land boundary over the southeast by the Atlantic ridge. Tropical development will not occur. The remainder of the Atlantic Basin is still very quiet. Upper level lows enhancing strong westerly shear is controlling much of the weather in the Caribbean in western Atlantic.
As stated yesterday evening, the potential for a named storm forming during the last few days of June look very slim at this point. Our seasonal hurricane forecast released on May 25 called for no June storms, so this is a good way to start the season. Now we begin to look forward into the month of July. We're forecasting 1-2 tropical storms to form next month. None of which are expected to reach hurricane status. The primary area we're going to focus on is the Mean Development Region (the area between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa). The runner-up region is the western Atlantic. The 384H forecasts often change numerous times, but these runs are somewhat useful for getting the general idea of what we might expect over the next couple weeks. The does indicate that a series of waves will exit Africa, with the last one shown on the run being the strongest, 1010MB. Now if this were August, it probably wouldn't be anything special. However, the North Atlantic Oscillation is expected to return to neutral during that timeframe after going positive during the first week of July. The likelyhood of tropical development is slightly greater when the NAO is negative as the subtropical ridge weakens a bit. In addition, the western edge of the negative phase of the will likely still be over the central/eastern Atlantic by that timeframe. But remember, we're looking as far out as July 10th, so we have a lot of time to go over model runs and TC parameters before we suggest that anything has even a 50/50 shot at development. But being that the MDR will be a place to watch next month we wanted to at least mention it.
-end-
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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Wild Cat
Unregistered
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Doesn't one feature tend to leave the door open to the next feature? So, I'm asking normally after a , then What? What usually fills in the air then?
Thanks Mr. Mann on the post, its very complicated and I'm trying to understand it in simpler words. Will take me a while.
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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If all these predictions do pan out, it looks like Alex will be forming back where he did in 1998. Deja vu.
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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The is almost always present throughout the season. It's usually at its strongest during late spring-early summer (right now), but fades by the peak. It'll likely still be there even around the peak, just in a much weakened form and too weak to really have a negative influence on development/intensification. During periods when the is not present at all, it'd be replaced by its opposite...an upper level ridge. Now the strength of the does vary in different seasons. For example, in 2000 it remained strong through Aug and Sep...which is one of the main reasons why we saw so many named storms fizzle out around the islands that year (Chris, Debby, , Joyce). In most cases, you'll see a stronger in years with easterly QBO and El Nino...though 2000 actually had weak La Nina so it can be argued that the strong that year was highly unusual. On the subject of this season, we have WEST QBO and NO El Nino (if we do somehow see any weak El Nino form, it'll be after the peak of the season). So I doubt the will be much problem for storms in the peak this year.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Looks like a fairly impressive wave has just rolled off the coast of Africa. Several weeks ago, we were talking about the unusually strong waves emerging for the time of year. Since then there have been very few of that strength. I guess conditions are still unfavourable that far east, but if it survives to the other side of the Atlantic, maybe it will become a candidate for Alex. Does anyone think it could do this?
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