Bobbi
Unregistered
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Been monitoring the boards a bit here but really not much to say or add. Slow start to what should be a busy season I think. Though, who knows for sure. Just wanted to say this was an interesting comment, thanks for pointing it out so I can look at some sats. The African Wave Train has been ominously quiet the last couple weeks...this should seed that side of the theater a bit in the next few weeks.
Good observation Steve
Bobbi/lois
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Thanks Steve for clearing that up for me. I wasnt aware of a strong cold-front going through Tahiti. I just thought it seemed odd with how far negative it plunged in one day. I think from -4 to -46. I understand now, thanks
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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i am increasing my forecast in the atlantic because the Eastern Pacific has gone the first June since 1969 without a storm (the reason I am saying this so early is because it is the 28th, and nothing looks like it will form in the next three days)
in 1969, the Atlantic saw 18 storms
my new forecast:
15/8/3
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It doesn't look as though the E. Pacific will be seeing a huge amount of activity for a while. In fact, it is expected to experience a below average season.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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Bobbi,
No problem. That's why I turn to the experts like Rob/Jason and Joe B in the quiet times. You never know what you can learn, plus it allows me to be lazy. Seriously, what does a cold front blasting up northward through Tahiti look like anyway? Who knows.
Here's the link to a couple of India IR's that you can use in the future to gauge monsoonal rainfall:
Intellicast's India IR
GMS5 Sat
Indien (sic) Ocean
All these sats come from a cool site in Germany:
Cool Site in Germany.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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I thought a little further down the line on this and wondered not only what happened in the ATL when there were no EastPac storms in June (thanks for the info), but, also, what happened when there was a storm in May and no storms in June? Now, that could be an analog!!
I hope someone with the time and resources will let us know, thanks!!
sc 
Edited by summercyclone (Mon Jun 28 2004 09:34 PM)
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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The wave in the Caribbean seems to have flared up recently and has increased in size. Right now it is centred near Haiti, but the mountainous terrain will rule out any development now. I'm surprised it has not been mentioned in the . Does anyone think that this wave has the potential to develop?
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summercyclone
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Loc: Florida Big Bend
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There is a bit of a swirl S of Haiti, but it could be a topographically induced vortex.
North of Haiti, it does look like some development. In any case, looks like this wave might make S Fl and may be vigorous....maybe in the Gulf???
sc
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I mentioned in a post yesterday that Accuweather were hinting that the wave could move up towards Florida and enhance thunderstorm activity in the area. Regardless of whether this happens or not, the wave certainly gives us something to watch. Alex has to form sooner or later!
By the way, the data for the E. Pacific I can find only goes back to 1949, and since then there has never been a storm in May followed by a storm-free June. Looks like this is quite an unusual year!
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Really is dead as dead can be out there (excluding the WPAC of course...that's another story).
However, still a little bit interested in the long-run. Looking at the most recent runs from today...it's still showing signs of a transition after July 10. What's most noticeable is that it develops a 1010MB low near 10ºN/40ºW on Day 13 and maintains it for the next 3-4 days. Doesn't strengthen it much but when we're looking this far out that's not as important as just having a persistent low in the first place. Though I imagine it would have a fairly favorable environment for the time being as the model also shows an anticyclone aloft that moves in tandem with the low...which would help counter any westerly shear that may be present. Track-wise, the takes it on a general WNW course and places it near 25ºN/60ºW on Day 16.
Now I do want to stress that it's not as much as the low itself to pay attention to...but the overall pattern. Yes, the is latching onto one particular wave...but it's so far out that it might as well be a different wave that develops. The point we're trying to make is...we're seeing signs that conditions in the Atlantic will change in the middle third of the upcoming month. The slow moving negative currently over the WPAC should make it to the Atlantic by that time...which alone will help ripen the basin up. This and the fact that the has consistently been indicating something is enough to raise an eyebrow.
It'd be foolish to actually forecast development this early in time...but it IS something to watch.
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
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Really is dead as dead can be out there (excluding the WPAC of course...that's another story).
However, still a little bit interested in the long-run. Looking at the most recent runs from today...it's still showing signs of a transition after July 10. What's most noticeable is that it develops a 1010MB low near 10ºN/40ºW on Day 13 and maintains it for the next 3-4 days. Doesn't strengthen it much but when we're looking this far out that's not as important as just having a persistent low in the first place. Though I imagine it would have a fairly favorable environment for the time being as the model also shows an anticyclone aloft that moves in tandem with the low...which would help counter any westerly shear that may be present. Track-wise, the takes it on a general WNW course and places it near 25ºN/60ºW on Day 16.
Now I do want to stress that it's not as much as the low itself to pay attention to...but the overall pattern. Yes, the is latching onto one particular wave...but it's so far out that it might as well be a different wave that develops. The point we're trying to make is...we're seeing signs that conditions in the Atlantic will change in the middle third of the upcoming month. The slow moving negative currently over the WPAC should make it to the Atlantic by that time...which alone will help ripen the basin up. This and the fact that the has consistently been indicating something is enough to raise an eyebrow.
It'd be foolish to actually forecast development this early in time...but it IS something to watch.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Let's see what happens with that as we enter july which favors systems to form just east of the lesser antilles.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Wild Cat
Unregistered
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I was looking at the loops this morning and it occurs to me that something might be trying to form in the Pacific. Is that possible.
Also, why is this topic called Watching the Gulf? Are we still expecting development there sometime soon. Has Joe Bastardi mentioned something about that being the first place a storm would develop?
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JustMe
Weather Guru
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Posts: 128
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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TOday is my guestamation for the first something in the new season. Guess I was off as there doesn't seem to be anything close unless Haiti happens to move. (LOL) WIll keep my eyes open and keep watching the water, sky etc.
Hope you all are having a great day.
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I have survived Betsy Miss, Camille Miss., Andrew Fl, Charley Fl, Frances FL, Jeanne FL,
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It certainly seems possible that something could develop. The says that there is the potential for slow development over the next few days. It would have to pull itself together pretty quickly to form within the month of June, though.
BTW, wasn't it a year ago today that Bill, the 3rd tropical system of 2003 formed?
Edited by James88 (Tue Jun 29 2004 03:52 PM)
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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With the still so strongly negative (though all signs are pointing to a return to neutral very soon), it's inhibiting EPac development. JB doesn't see any development with that wave. Additionally, the "blob" over Hispaniola won't develop, but it is going to send even more tropical moisture (than usual) into Florida. Looks like the whole Gulf coast, from Texas through Florida, is going to see A LOT of rain this week. Some areas could see as much as 5-10".
Mindulle in the WestPac is going to put a world of hurt on Taiwan, as the forecast calls for it to pass between the Mainland and Taiwan, then recurving northeast towards Japan. Gusts up to 145 Knots as it approaches from the South East! Yikes. 
Mindulle
Hurricane Alley forecasts gusts to 160 Knots! Holy Mackarel
Hurricane Alley's Forecast
Anybody see any teleconnections from the WestPac?
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Jun 29 2004 04:13 PM)
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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Cary, NC
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I'm not that excited by the EPAC disturbance. It has a ways to go before developing...the environment is only marginally favorable...and global models don't do much with it. Very slight chance we'll see a weak TC from it, but nothing significant.
Actually, I'm a little more intrigued by a low pressure progged to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week. The , , and UKMET all show tropical development by Day 5 and take it on a general WNW track parallel to the Mexican coastline through the end of the forecast period. Indeed we've seen the models in agreement on EPAC development more than once already this season...so it could easily turn out to be nothing. But taking into account we're already approaching July, and a strong negative (which has spawned several typhoons in the WPAC this month) will be scooting into the EPAC region soon...I do think this upcoming system will have a better chance than the teaser lows we've seen so far this EPAC season. Model trends/consistency is the key...it's only been a few runs that the models above have shown anything, and I would like to have jump aboard as well before I actually call for anything from it. Just something to watch for now in this quiet time for both the Atlantic and EPAC.
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Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Maybe this means that Blas will arrive on the scene sometime soon. I have to admit, the system there now looks a bit ragged when compared to its appearance earlier today. Meanwhile, the quiet time continues on the Atlantic side. Obviously very little to speak of in the tropics, but it looks as though Texas is experiencing some bad thunderstorms.
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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What was considered to be a safe bet yesterday does not look so safe now. The tropical disturbance in the E. Pacific has become much better organised, and conditions appear favourable for a tropical depression to form in the next day or so. Looks like we may get a June storm out there after all.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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really though, if it formed today or tomorrow, it is still pretty much the same thing. 99% of June went stormless in the EPAC.
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