Anonymous
Unregistered
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Storm before end of June.???..ummm, it is the end of June! , and even if it made depression today, I don't think that would 'count'...it is not going to be a storm today unless something really dramatic happens.....and even so, I agree with the poster about 99% of the month being over anyway,,,
Mr. A 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Storm before end of JUne...ummm, it is the end of June, and even if it made depression today, I don't think that would 'count'...it is not going to be a storm today unless something really dramatic happens.....and even so, I agree with the poster about 99% of the month being over anyway,,,
Mr. A
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I suppose so. It does look less organised now than it did earlier. So passes the first June for 45 years with no E. Pacific storm. Maybe things will warm up in July - in fact, the strong wave just moving into the Pacific may have some potential. Watching out for the potential system Rob M mentioned yesterday.
Nothing to speak of in the Atlantic, just a few waves and troughs. Still, as the rhyme goes, 'July, stand by'.
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tomrANonymous
Unregistered
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http://jwocky.gsfc.nasa.gov/aerosols/today_aero.html
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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Wave at 10N/50W looks interesting. Check out vis loops. Still a bit of shear there right now though.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Looks like a TD to me as I type this as it has a great circulation and deep convection near the center.It well turn into a TD later tonight or tommorow morning but dry air and shear to it's west may not let it develop further.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Thu Jul 01 2004 12:41 AM)
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Well we are now in the second month of the 2004 season and so far nada has formed but the question now is what will july bring in terms of tropical developments.Anyway this month tends to be slow although more areas are to be watched than in june such as the Bahamas area and east of the lesser antilles where we have to start to look that way but time will tell if july will have storms to track or it will be without anything to form.I say at least 2 storms will form in july but it is only a guess on my part.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Loc: South Florida
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And then what if there is nothing to track in July? What will we do? What will be?
Hot blue mornings, dusty streets, clouds climbing but not collapsing down in tropical rains...just blowing away being sucked up by the high
and we wait and wait and wait in the heat of summer
what then steve and cyclone and phil???
hmmmn?
oh well...
Que sera, sera
Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que sera, sera
What will be, will be
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Check out the large area of convection off the Carolinas - looks fairly impressive. I'm not saying it will develop, but it's quite noticeable.
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Anonymous
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a historical note: the atlantic has never in the satellite era gone all of June and JUly in the same year without a depression
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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FWIW. Accuwx has issued their 2004 forecast for landfalls on the Atlantic or Gulf coasts:
Tropical Storm: 1
Hurricane: 4 (!)
Major Hurricane 1-2 (!!!!!)
Wow -- 6-7 landfalls with possibly Majors. 
I don't know how much weight JB got to put into that forecast, but that's a pretty scary 'cast.
How long before designates 98E a TD? Looks like it's already one... 
E-PAC IR Loop
This one will probably become Blas.
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Loc: Puerto Rico
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Wow that is scary stuff from them but time will tell if they will be right or not but the most important thing to do is to be prepared for the worse but hope for the best.
Phil agree that 98E is a TD and they might go ahead later today or tonight to classifie it but the question is will it become Blas as dry air is to it's west.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Luis:
If that "td" is to become Blas, it'd better hurry...not only dry air but cool SSTs ahead. Sure looks like it could be a very weak TS, even now.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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2 major landfalls would make this a very significant year - especially since 1964 was the last time it happened. Does anyone remember what Accuwx landfall predictions were last year?
The disturbance in the E. Pacific sure does look like it could be a tropical depression already. The says that significant development is not expected because of cooler waters nearby. Still, as Phil said it will probably become Blas.
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Wild Cat
Unregistered
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My momma always told me "Never say never" or was that my Uncle Joe
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Loc: Metairie, LA
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>>a historical note: the atlantic has never in the satellite era gone all of June and JUly in the same year without a...
I think July is a tough month for Atlantic storms to form in general. You don't get the June or October hybrid type development and the wind flows are decidedly different. You can get lows that work their way to the surface, but that's another process. July (to me) is the transitional month. Water is heating, summer patterns are evolving, etc. I do believe that the system that hit Haiti in May (?) was clearly a tropical depression if not a tropical storm. As noted by Joe B. on his Long Ranger today, many of the objective EU met services have classified it as such (he throws that out there in case there are any "verification" issues with the . I'm not calling him paranoid in this case because I agree with him).
As for the question about the Accuweather forecast from last year, I don't have a clue. I don't usually go to their free site since I pay for AccuPro. Joe was pretty good last year in his initial landfall analysis then botched it when he overplayed Florida in his August update.
Bobbi,
It ain't like that down here. If it hasn't rained 40 out of the last 50 days I don't know what it's done. This is the most insane May/June period that I can remember here in SE LA. I know you guys haven't had much to look at in Dade County, but it's a different story in Orleans and Jefferson Parishes. We're getting daily color from the radar sites so that helps to pass the time. Nonetheless, I'd expect we'll be tracking some waves this month if nothing else. What's been interesting so far is the E/W elongation of wave convection. I don't know what that means for the future, but I believe it shows a narrow path (with a southerly biased high thus far) for convection to travel across the Ocean.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LI Phil
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Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> Que sera, sera
Bobbi, LOL. Were you watching a video of "The Man Who Knew Too Much" when you made that post?
Regarding accuwx 2003 landfall forecast, I'm not sure they actually did one. Since I got pro, I haven't been back to the free site...I actually got the '04 info from the "HiRes Graphics" section of pro. So I checked the free site, and sure enough, it's on there too.
Steve, your neck of the woods has sure gotten it's fair share of rain the past month...pretty amazing amounts from Texas to Alabama, and all of it without a tropical storm. And mark down August 13...first preseason game...the J-E-T-S are a comin' to town. Unless, of course, Cat V Hurricane Gaston is heading up the Mississip Delta, preventing the plane from landing. Is the Superdome considered a hurricane shelter? (I'm being serious).
Still haven't heard from ED.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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I was just wondering whether this year's landfall forecast was calling for a significantly higher chance of a major hurricane landfall than in recent years. Maybe Accuwx didn't issue a forecast last year. Thanks for looking, anyway.
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Bobbi
Unregistered
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That info you gave has to do with landfalling storms, is that correct? Interesting.. have to think on it more.
"Tropical Storm: 1
Hurricane: 4 (!)
Major Hurricane 1-2 (!!!!!)
Wow -- 6-7 landfalls with possibly Majors.
Wondered why he lowered the forecast and then reread it said landfalling, just checking.
Next... glad you are getting rain Steve...really... must be real colorful and pretty down there. Here it's dry.. dry and dryer. Have to turn on a hose and stand underneath it to get anything that resembles rainfall.
As for the Man Who Knew Too Much..well I'll tell ya..
It's like this..somewhere there is a man who knows too much and I'd like to talk to that man so I could clear up a few things I don't get or understand that others do.. so I could move on with my life.. but Doris Day isn't going to help. Sings a nice song though. Wish life was as easy as those stupid movies, but it's not. It's more like stupider stranger funnier movies.
As for the tropics.. que sera sera.
As for Steve's comment (was it steve or james?) about long thin line of convection.. well that will change with some good waves/systems that have lows intact. So far in the last month or so the waves with strong lows intact are on vacation. A wave out in front of the islands now is the closest I have seen to looking like it has any low or connection going on and that's meager at best.
Let's see what happens to the when the real waves roll off, okay?
have a nice day.. nite...
Is it just me or is everyone in a mood lately? Everyone seems preoccupied or not happy about what they are occupied with and I'm missing a sense of humor here.. mean here online, a sense of joy de vive, a love for it all. Feel like everyone is grasping, the game is way out of control and the home team has fallen way behind and we are sort of just waiting for the minutes to tick off the clock.
re: football.. could use it now almost more than a Cane, getting closer..
my mind is getting fuzzy, ending this.. not sure why I'm posting because I said I wouldn't until I had something to say.
Bad habit?
nite
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LONNY307
Unregistered
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Somebody needs to change the subject. I'm sick of seeing something could form in the Gulf. It's boring enough in the tropics. How about "What's on the Horizon" as a new topic.
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