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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
It's A Rainmaker For Sure [Re: Unregistered User]
      #15291 - Sat Jun 12 2004 06:56 PM

93L (possibly Alex) is, if nothing else, a huge rainmaker. Dumping anywhere between 5"-10" on Cancun and Cozymel. Interests in the Gulf should be carefully monitoring the progress of this storm. Even if it never materializes into Alex, it will probably soak many areas in the Gulf Monday/Tuesday. Hopefully it won't stall out, ala Allison.

WREL has model graphics that show "landfalls" anywere from the Mid Tejas coast to the mid-LA coast.

models

And from Hurricane Alley, here's the recon graphics:

93L Recon

C & P

LIP

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: It's A Rainmaker For Sure [Re: LI Phil]
      #15292 - Sat Jun 12 2004 07:29 PM

Yes regardless of what this system turns out to be a big rain producer will go to many areas in the gulf coast and points east of a center is where the main action will be in terms of rain and if system intensifies then gusty winds.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: It's A Rainmaker For Sure [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15293 - Sat Jun 12 2004 07:47 PM

I think the global models have a better grasp on the direction than the tropicals do... this falls in w/ what Ed posted and he made a great point. Time will tell if this will make TD or a slim chance of more but our local mets and the WFO are getting ready for a good bit of rain for the panhandle.

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Latest TWD [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #15298 - Sat Jun 12 2004 08:16 PM

NHC not really committing one way or the other, but I will bet they do send in the recon tomorrow.

SPECIAL FEATURES...
1011 MB LOW HAS FORMED AS OF 2100 UTC IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 23.5N92.5W MOVING NW ABOUT 10 KT. THIS LOW APPEARS TO HAVE
ORIGINATED MOSTLY FROM A MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS
BEEN WORKING ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE LOW LEVELS AND HAS NOW
REACHED THE SURFACE. THE LOW'S CIRCULATION IS BROAD WITH ANY
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SHUNTED TO THE E DUE TO SHEAR. IN
ADDITION THE DEEP-LAYERED LOW IS VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH LOTS OF
DRY AIR ALOFT... NOT AN IDEAL CANDIDATE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS TO THE E OF THE LOW
UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE WHOLE SOUTHERN GULF
HAS POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEADED TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGARDLESS OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK/MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF
25N BETWEEN 84W-92W WITH SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W OF 83W N OF 19.5N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

Looking much better this evening than earlier.

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
Leaning more toward development [Re: LI Phil]
      #15299 - Sat Jun 12 2004 09:48 PM

Well i have to say, i think i'm leaning more toward development now. It seems every needed ingredient is there, plenty warm SST's and light shear environment. Although the convection appears to be undergoing some shearing at this time, the tendency has been for it to decrease, and the forecast suggests a light shear environment for the next 48 hours, so that may give the system a chance to pull itself together. Only thing i did note, was the dry air showing up on the water vapor loop, anyone think this will play a part in development?

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Storm Cooper
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Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Leaning more toward development [Re: Jamiewx]
      #15300 - Sat Jun 12 2004 10:10 PM

You are on it about the dry air getting to it...... if it were to make it I think we would have a hunt & peck for a LLC. I think this will be a good dry run for all

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
JK & ED [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #15301 - Sat Jun 12 2004 10:26 PM

As long as you two are both online. Do either of you see development out of 93L?

LIP

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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SirCane
Storm Tracker


Reged: Tue
Posts: 249
Loc: Pensacola, FL
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #15305 - Sat Jun 12 2004 11:02 PM

This could get a bit interesting. Anyway, we sure could use the rain! It's been really lacking this year.

--------------------
Direct Hits:
Hurricane Erin (1995) 100 mph
Hurricane Opal (1995) 115 mph
Hurricane Ivan (2004) 130 mph
Hurricane Dennis (2005) 120 mph
http://www.hardcoreweather.com


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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: SirCane]
      #15308 - Sat Jun 12 2004 11:30 PM

Looks like there will be a pretty significant rain event for some of us. I called early week that I though the main action would end up east of here. I still think that. But I'd bet lower Jefferson, St. Bernard and Lafourche will see some heavy totals. I'm just hoping to see a couple of squalls and a rainband or two and I'll be happy. I plan on picking up some ice and beer after I bring the kids to church tomorrow, so with any luck, I'll get to issue a couple of buzzed out reports from the front lines tomorrow night, Monday and maybe Tuesday.

Tough to say what New Orleans might see. We're potentially in the 5"+ range of possibility, but something just keeps tugging my mind east to Biloxi, Mobile and Pensacola. Bastardi, in his nightly update, is pretty convinced that it's coming in west of New Orleans. Maybe that's because he's going to be here Tuesday morning. Last time he was in town, we had a 1.5 hour 6" burst and he got to see some of the flooding first hand. He was all over that. You can imagine if he gets to ride out Alex or would-be Alex... He's convinced, named or not, there will be some torrential rains and tropical storm conditions NE of wherever the system goes in.

We'll see again tomorrow. I'm real interested in what happens in the daytime tomorrow with the pulsing of the system, and what kinds of storms it puts off.

The thing I like most about this system is it's been pretty pesky despite some of the negatives. I'll take another look at it later.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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javlin
Weather Master


Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Steve]
      #15309 - Sun Jun 13 2004 01:51 AM

Steve looks like part of the system is pushing W to me and some coverge is moving E of that.Like another core is forming might be way off base here a couple of Scotch and waters can do that you know.Looks like something is trying to happen more moisture starting to wrap up only way to tell it.It's starting to get that signature look.Have a look in the morning.I just read some of the earlier post I think it's happening.See ya guys in the morning.

Edited by javlin (Sun Jun 13 2004 01:58 AM)


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
2:02 AM Gomex... [Re: javlin]
      #15311 - Sun Jun 13 2004 02:04 AM

Looks like the LLC is breaking away from the cloudiness and heading towards Mexico. This is sure to hurt the already low chances (imo) of development with this system. If you want development , you'll have to look to the possibility of a new center forming farther to the east. This isn't necessary probable, but it would be interesting.

BTW...love the new emoticons. nice work fellas


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: 2:02 AM Gomex... [Re: Kevin]
      #15312 - Sun Jun 13 2004 03:09 AM

A rather impressive 'blob' of convection has fired up just off the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning:-

Convection off the Yucatan

Does anyone think this could be something trying to reform, or is it just likely to be an unrelated flare up?


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Hurric
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
Re: 2:02 AM Gomex... [Re: James88]
      #15314 - Sun Jun 13 2004 07:33 AM

James, That blob off ne side of Yucatan still there. Hopefully the visible Pics will give us a better indication of what is happening. I agree with your thoughts that a center may form much further east than the current one that seems to be rapidly moving off towards TEXMEX.
If anyone has a WORKING radar from that side of Yucatan please share it. Maybe the rainfree view from Cancun is to please the touristas, but it doesn't help much if your trying to see how the rain is moving around the area.


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
9:30 & back from the "dog walk" [Re: Hurric]
      #15315 - Sun Jun 13 2004 09:32 AM

Just checking in...here's what accuwx has to say about our "blob":

"This 1010 mb low is centered in the Gulf of Mexico near 23 N 93 W with a surface trough extending from 27N 91W through the low to 19N 93W. This area of low pressure has a slight chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Most of the convection is east of the center of the low pressure area. Tropical moisture associated with this system is expected to reach the coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and western portions of the panhandle of Florida by late Sunday night and early Monday morning."

Looks like all our gulf posters are in for some serious rain. Probably nothing more.

LI Phil :?:

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 2:02 AM Gomex... [Re: Hurric]
      #15316 - Sun Jun 13 2004 09:41 AM

looks like a new spin north of yuc on vis.

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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
Re: 2:02 AM Gomex... [Re: Anonymous]
      #15317 - Sun Jun 13 2004 09:54 AM

Early images of rain are showing up nicely on the Mobile Radar:

Mobile Radar

I could see some of the clouds overhead associated with the dry band across my area in the 12:15UTC GOES shots. Typical whispy cirrus clouds across the sky. It's a bowl of soup here today though - warm, muggy and fairly still.

Early thoughts on the convection - a lot of FL posters around the web last night got enamored with the spinning blob of convection that sat over Cancun area last night. But that kind of stuff is always early-season "fooler" convection. This time, instead of being MLC sheared blowoff convection, it was probably feeder type moisture at the base of a stretched out trof in the area. The LLC that popped out of the system last night is still somewhat discernable on visible zooms. It appears the bulk of the new convection is coming out of another spinning area somewhere around 92-23.5. Obviously a disorganized Gulf system is liable to have several spins & swirls. We've all seen that before. I'm sticking with heaviest rain east of me, though I am expecting to see some action here. As promised yesterday, I'll post whenever we see any rain.

In the segment that may interest only me and LoisCane, check around the globe for all the swirly features looking good on sat. I need to find the alt-link to the NRL since their main page is down through the usual channels. But there is a global burst in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. If you go to a hemispheric mosaic view, you see this pretty well.

Anyway, today's the day that many of us coastal denizens should start seeing some effects from our unnamed system. I, for one, can't wait.

Steve

--------------------
MF'n Super Bowl Champions


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Shan
Verified CFHC User


Reged: Tue
Posts: 12
Re: 2:02 AM Gomex... [Re: Steve]
      #15320 - Sun Jun 13 2004 10:52 AM

Hi all-

I posted a few times last year but have been a lurker for quite awhile. I'm south of Mobile, in Bayou La Batre (near Dauphin Island). We have partly cloudy skies this morning and it's already quite hot and sticky out.

We had some really strong stoms to pass through yesterday. They were brief but did cool us down quite a bit. Although I in no way wish a deadly storm on anyone, some rain storms to cool us down would be great.

--------------------
Shan
Bayou La Batre, AL


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Anonymous
Unregistered




AM thoughts [Re: Shan]
      #15321 - Sun Jun 13 2004 10:59 AM

I still don't really see that this will become a tropical cyclone...time is not on its side, and it really has a ways to go...

(unofficial) IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 13 June 2004 - 10:45 AM EDT

The situation in the Gulf of Mexico has become rather chaotic over the past 12 hours or so. The broad low level circulation that developed yesterday has continued to scoot off to the west-northwest closer to the northern Mexican coastline, while all of the convection has remained further east in the central Gulf of Mexico. Early visible imagery hints that this low level circulation is also becoming elognated. In order for this circulation to develop, convection will have to shift or rebuild over it. Given the recent convection trends, and the upper level low-driven dry air in the vicinity of the exposed circulation, redevelopment of convection appears highly unlikely. This low level circulation expected continue to move uneventfully to the west-northwest and dissipate with time.

This leaves us with the poorly organized mass of convection in the central Gulf of Mexico. In essence, the shape of the convection is an arc, with slow cyclonic motion noted. Convection is being inhibited to the south of the flow due to dry air being undercutted from the upper level low in the Bay of Campeche. There is no evidence whatsoever of another low level circulation within this large mass. Satellite imagery animation over the past 12 hours shows that the "arc" may be trying to bend inward on the left flank, which could lead to more of a distorted comma shape later today. The global models, including the GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and UKMET, all develop a new, though still broad, low level circulation within this convection over the next day or so as they lose the current one off to the west. This does not seem all that unreasonable given the recent convection configuration trends already mentioned. The process will not occur right away, as the convection still has to organize into a more concentrated shape, and the low level circulation to the west has to dissipate or weaken significantly so that a new one can take over.

As a result, time is thus clearly something this disturbance needs, but does not have. A shortwave trough is still going to dig down into the northern Gulf of Mexico within the next day or so. As this occurs, upper level southerly shear will rapidly increase in the vicinity of the disturbance. Based on the average of progged times of when the shear will come into play by the global models, this system has only about 24 hours to organize, develop a new low level circulation, and become a classified tropical cyclone. Afterwards, southerly shear will blow most of the convection north and east of any low level circulation that might be present. If the system is a classified tropical cyclone when that occurs, no doubt it will not strengthen any further, and if anything will just weaken back into a disorganized disturbance.

Trackwise, the main area of convection will continue to move slowly to the northwest along the southeastern prehiphery of the subtropical ridge. After 24 hours or so, the convection, possibly with a new low level circulation, will then be steered more quickly to the north as the shortwave trough moves through. The system is expected to come ashore somewhere from Louisiana to to the western Florida Panhandle late Monday night, though the area of showers and thunderstorms will cover a large area and be displaced more to the east. So Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle may end up getting the most weather from this disturbance. The main threat will be heavy rainfall. There does not appear to be time for this to organize into a tropical cyclone before it feels the impact from shear, and we expect a weak hybrid at the very most. All in all, tropical development still appears very unlikely.

Elsewhere, all is quiet.



But if this were to develop...I know it'd make LI Phil happy.


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Rob_M
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
AM thoughts [Re: Anonymous]
      #15322 - Sun Jun 13 2004 10:59 AM

(sorry, that was me, obviously)

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: AM thoughts [Re: Rob_M]
      #15324 - Sun Jun 13 2004 11:39 AM

It looks like this system was just a false alarm - but it still has a slim chance to become a short-lived tropical depression (according to the TWO). Still, if it doesn't develop it is providing a good 'warm up' for the season ahead!

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