Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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It tried hard and very close to develop into a tropical depression but upper features combined with the dry air didn't let this disturbance organize more.Now the search will go on for Alex where and when the first storm will form.This was a warmup for more active times later on in the season and for sure we will be tracking many systems so be patient as time will come for the atlantic basin to heat up.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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It's still just the start of the season, but we sure did need the rain, last night in St. Pete beach we had about 4 inches of rain in 1 hour. Reminded me of the far east.
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Just had a very nice squall go through here in Pensacola and Gulf Breeze. Very heavy tropical downpours and some gusty winds probably around 35 mph or so blowing the rain everywhere. Only lasted 5 or 10 mintues, so now just waiting for the next. Hope all of ya'll are getting your fair share of rain from this one. Cheers
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Is it just me, or does the tropical wave east of the Windward Islands look like it is trying to become organised?  Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
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javlin
Weather Master
Reged: Wed
Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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The ULL over TX will keep it from developing for right now.The ULL is moving at a good clip right now to little to late I think.It was a good dry run now we wait for the rest of the rain.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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They've cancelled Recon, so I'm throwing in the towel. Sure gave us all something to watch, and many of you are now feeling the effects. To those who need the rain, you're getting it. To those who don't, well you're getting it too. Steve already covered JB so no need to repeat.
Alex will not be born on 6/14/04, but a couple of you did pick some later June dates...good luck.
Everybody enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got-JB
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Phil I have june 28th as my date for Alex to form so let's see what happens.It was a warmup as I said before for the real season later on.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Right now, it seems the only thing worth watching. I wouldnt expect any kind of development at this time of year unless it gets into the Caribbean. Of course, in the last few years, two short lived depressions have formed east of the Islands so who knows. Either way, it wont develope today, but its worth watching, as i may see a twist in the clouds
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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LI Phil
According to the lastest the recon is still going in this afternoon, I think they just cancelled the morning run. Even the tropical wave that some of you have been watching is getting a mention and is getting better organized. No signs of tropical cyclone development though.
here are the specifics
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA IN GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE
A. 14/1800Z-0000Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 14/1600Z
D. 25N 93W
E. 14/1700Z-15/0100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
FLIGHT
A. 15/0600-1200Z
B. AFXXX 0401A CYCLONE
C. 15/0500Z
D. 28N 93W
E. 15/0500Z-1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
IS THREAT.
So today they leave at 12pm EDT and arrive there at 2pm EDT
Edited by Jamiewx (Mon Jun 14 2004 11:35 AM)
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Steve hirsch.
Unregistered
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This wave has been discussed in previous posts. lThis is a decent wave with a weak low associated with it, and some I noticed some turning in the cloud pattern yesterday, not as prevalent today, but worth watching since the area of cloudiness has expanded a bit this morning. There maybe some shear to contend with tomorrow. If it remains light as it enters the E. Caribbean it will have a shot. Cheers!!!
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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker
Reged: Wed
Posts: 371
Loc: Orlando, Florida
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T-numbers have been dropped down as well from 1.0/1.0 to a Too Weak classification.
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GaryC
Weather Guru
Reged: Mon
Posts: 109
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I said that we would have the first storm form on June 26th or the day after cause I am getting married and going to the bahamma's. It would be my luck for that to happen.
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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It's obviously frontal, but, looking less so as time goes by...
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Raining pretty heavily here in the Big Bend.
sc 
Edited by summercyclone (Mon Jun 14 2004 01:41 PM)
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html
you beat me to it, but this means i'm not just imagining things seems to have a better chance than either of the other two systems
starting to look the way Karen did in 2001 a few days before forming and appears to have in the last few hours a bit of banding and the convection trying to wrap around to the south and thickening
also, the frontal feature to the northeast is thinning out a bit and appears to be trying to seperate from the low
dont really want to forecast anything at this point, but wouldnt be surprised, as we did have something last year in april and december in this same general region
sum up: it has potential, but only about 48 hours to develop before moving over much cooler water
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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That would be bad luck! Hopefully though, a storm won't ruin the day. Looking east, it seems that convection associated with the tropical wave mentioned earlier is currently on the wane. Maybe it will pick up again later.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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i'd say now looking at satellite images that the gulf system's chances of development are that of it snowing at my house tomorrow
pretty much a done deal, and heres the reason:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
what could be described as an upper level hurricane is not to far to the west and producing extremely fast shear
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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NW Atl.,If not alex, then looks like its on its way to being a hybrid or sub-tropical storm, really starting to wind up. Gulf system looks dead, almost looks like a frontal boundary.
TG
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Here's a quick snippet of JBs 2:00 update:
"The nastiest of the system will be on the eastern side, and there is very little weather to its west. The ship in the central gulf 160 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi is having gusts to 31 kts and I expect some rough weather for several hours in the southeast Louisiana coastal waters this evening."
He didn't mention any sustained winds, but I would imagine they're not very strong. May have to check some bouy readings. It's been fun watching this one, a nice kick off to the season.
Just quickly checked some readings. Nothing above 15 knots (and that was gusts).
CHECK THAT...I found one with somewhat impressive #s
bouy reading
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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getting very close to tropical or subtropical storm
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/NWATL/VIS/20.jpg
hopefully it will become classified, because it would be the farthest ever northeast of the antilles
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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forgot to log in with that one
i notice the archives page is also back up
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