HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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93L is running out of time, and the environment hasn't improved. ready to say that it isn't going to develop. we've had more rain here in the last two weeks than the two months previous, and this system's distant effects should push that a bit higher. they threw up an invest 94L today east of the islands (second time this year); it's going to run into lots of shear in a couple of days, and is moving fairly quickly. haven't seen it on the models, but as some folks earlier have mentioned, its wave energy should have propagated as far as the gulf around the time the next trough split happens. that's way out.
interesting to watch, though undoubtedly non-tropical.. low is occluding northeast of bermuda. saw it on the models, noted it saturday.. thoughts on it same, chances so slim as to be negligible. there's a good lower troposphere vortmax in the convection to the south of it.. nothing on that though.
only real positive thing i have to say in the way of development is that the basin has that /on look. sort of. there's an IR velocity potential loop somewhere (i think a cpc subpage), but it's slow and unreliable so i usually ignore it.
the level of activity we're seeing right now would probably spawn a storm or two, in august or september. in june it really does take a lot. by the way, watch that westpac typhoon. official has it deepening to near super-typhoon and heading for the south coast of japan.
HF 2208z14june
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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It's raining here. We're getting some nice green-yellow tropical downpours. Just west of Metairie had a recent 3-4" rain hour. They put up an Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Jefferson and Eastern St. Charles Parish (the latter is roughly the SW corner of Lake Pontchartrain). It was dry downtown, but I guess 5 miles east or west of any location could make a big difference as it appears to have rained here most of the day (= puddles in the streets but no standing water outside of the usual places).
I think Old Swede, or was that Old Sailor - hit it on the head. You win some and you lose some. I'll take the loss for lack of development (gave it a 50/50) but a win for 2 straight tropical days and a generally good call on the effects of what we'd see. Double hats off to Joe B. who had between 90-92 from several days out. Beginning on Friday, the web forums (though not this time) had every possible reason why the tropical system was on its way to Florida. The lesson learned is that a MLC east of a sheared LLC isn't ordinarilly going to be a major event.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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This Gulf system , like many Gulf systems, was both complex and poorly defined but I do believe that a LLCC closed off around 17Z and moved inland near Point Chevreuil (to Centerville - that should bring out an atlas or three), LA, at 21Z this afternoon. The system moved steadily almost due north (010 degrees) from 16Z to 22Z. I'd estimate that sustained winds were around 25 knots in a very small area near the center from 17Z to 22Z, with small banding and plenty of convection - thus a Tropical Depression. What made the situation complex was an additional two open circulation centers that were also easy to track for a few hours (unfortunately I left all of the coordinate info at work). Anyway, there was enough evidence for a short-lived TD this afternoon - but it will not be recorded as such. LI Phil actually came mighty close with his prediction.
Regarding the May event, I'd have to side with on that one. There indeed was a low, but I'm pretty certain that it never closed off, i.e., it was open to the south.
Cheers,
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 14 2004 11:38 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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>>> LI Phil actually came mighty close with his prediction.
So, I know I didn't "win". It's all in fun anyway. But a quick question. Is this going to be like the Price Is Right, where if no one actually gets the date right, is it the closest to the date, or is anyone who went "low" (remember those who would bid "one dollar" because they felt everyone was over?), i.e. if a system does get named before the next prediction, am I considered the victor? (I really don't care, but I'm just curious). Or is it closest to the actual date?
All day I tried to find a buoy with sustained winds of 35 or more and couldn't, but I would still think this baby had at least TD status. Not TS status, but TD status.
Anyway, thanks for the props. BTW, do you have an opinion about basically dismissing 's invest call? I know there's a lot of shear out there, but shouldn't they at least think about a flight? Looked pretty healthy this afternoon.
Cheers,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Old Sailor
Storm Tracker
Reged: Mon
Posts: 293
Loc: Florida
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Gee Ed, you must have made the mad - their web site is down, Don't you know that they Gov Med. are always right?
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 14 2004 11:41 PM)
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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LOL Old Sailor. You must have been through a bunch of nasty ones in the pacific. In the appropriate forum (whatever one that is), I'd love for you to regale the board with some awesome stories...I'm sure you have a few.
LI Phil
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 14 2004 11:33 PM)
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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I've met a handful of them over the years - and they really are a great bunch. Its not an easy job that they've got - the responsibility is significant - and they don't like to 'bust' a forecast any more than I do.
I think that we'd all agree that whether the storm today was a TD or not didn't really pose any life-threatening significance since the flood potential was well covered for the public. Probably worth keeping in mind for later in the season - nobody's perfect in this business 
Cheers,
ED
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Ed,
FWIW, isn't something like what occured today what we all kinda wish for? Some real tropical action and no one gets hurt. Kinda like last September when Isabel was a Cat V...but far away from any harm. Granted, she did end up with some deaths, (mostly from morons who waded out into the dangerous rip currents, but deaths nonetheless), but still a marvel of nature at its finest. Just gives us a taste for what's to come.
All in all, I'd say a pretty good start to the 2004 season.
Enjoy the rest of the show, this tropical mess will probably end up my way with some serious rains later in the week. Ah, my first taste of tropical raindrops.
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
Edited by Ed Dunham (Mon Jun 14 2004 11:31 PM)
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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Finnally the principal site is up again after a few days out.The backup site dosen't have all the information the prime one has.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Mon Jun 14 2004 10:48 PM)
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DroopGB31
Weather Guru
Reged: Sat
Posts: 122
Loc: Pensacola
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Anybody in the pensacola area, specifically Gulf Breeze just see that squall go through?? Wow, best storm of my life..I was watching the radar wondering if it would ever get here, I became impatient so I just started lookin out my window and it was just raining normally and just all of a sudden huge gust of wind rips through my backyard....My mom has a screened patio tent thing that has 8 stakes and 4 ropes holding it in the ground....Well the wind picked it up and carried it up into my tree's, also the plastic patio chairs and table all took off somewhere....And these werent just gust, the winds were sustained for almost 6 or 7 minutes. Probably around 45 mph but the occasional gusts had to be well over 60 mph. It was amazing......I am going to go out and investigate any further damage, and I hope some other people get to enjoy what I just did.  
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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But I dont expect this significant wave for the middle of june to develop into a TD because an upper trough to it's west will not make the enviroment too favorable.Just in case it surprises us developing I will be watching it from San Juan but here in the eastern caribbean we can expect plenty of rain and some gusty winds from it.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
Edited by Cycloneye (Tue Jun 15 2004 07:07 AM)
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ticka1
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Sat
Posts: 54
Loc: Southeast Texas
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Here in SE Houston, TX we are getting wrap around moisture from the system that was in the GOM. Been thundering and lightning since 3 a.m. this morning. Even heard some hail. We have a 70% chance of rain today.
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Join www.wildonweather.com/forum Message Board
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Here's what the models are predicting for 94L. Seems to be a tad better organized this morning, but development is unlikely.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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LOL. The tropical models are useless, even in the tropics. They'll continue to try to curve the 94l up a bit more west with each run. You can prognosticate their errors just by running a water vapor loop at 25-30 frames.
Of interesting note, the ULL over East Texas has actually tapped into Pacific moisture and is sending up some training bands.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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It was a little better organized yesterday afternoon and evening, it sheared out some this am, does seem to be coming back, still plenty of shear ahead. E carib is never a favored place for development...if it goes up into the Bahamas or into the W Carib, we will see.
It could develop east of the islands, but, I doubt it.
sc 
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summercyclone
Weather Hobbyist
Reged: Wed
Posts: 69
Loc: Florida Big Bend
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Thanks for the model posts, Phil!
sc
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James88
Weather Master
Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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It seems really unlikely that development will occur (at least while it is this far east). Anyway, since 1967 only three systems have formed in this part of the Atlantic this early in the season.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I know that some will argue against it, but Joe B, Joe Lundberg (also from accuwx) and ED all seemed to believe 93L should have been TD1.
Are there any instances where this could be retroactively classified? One of our earlier posters (forgot whom) even reported TS strength winds sustained in his backyard (of course, I doubt the folks at would accept this as proof).
Still, I'd be interested in knowing if this storm is "gone" forever or if someone will take a "look-see" at it down the road.
Thanks,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Kind a mixed message out of the 2pm TWD:
Quote:
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 9N57W
16N49W. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE WAVE REMAINS DIFFLUENT
WITH A WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST AND WELL DEFINED RIDGING TO THE
EAST. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD/LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO WED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY
WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE PASSAGE.
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Rabbit
Weather Master
Reged: Sat
Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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looked pretty strong on satellite on the 13th, but reported winds were only about 20mph
before and after that, there was no evidence of a closed low at the surface
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