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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4542
Loc: Orlando, FL
Watching the Gulf of Mexico
      #15268 - Sat Jun 12 2004 12:15 PM

Nearly mid June, and it looks like we may have some potential for development. Over the last few days we've been watching the area in the northwest Caribbean, and thought that the wind shear was too much for any chance of development, not to mention the proximity to land.

The other factor is that it was an upper level low, and tropical systems need low level or surface lows to begin formation. And for an upper level low to spin up a lower level low it needs favorable winds higher up. It doesn't have them now, but it may soon.

So tomorrow we should have a better. Right now it's no sure bet, but we'll put up a scale:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)

[-----*----------------]


(note the wrong scale was originally put up on the first article -- this here is what was intended)
It has a few obsticles it needs to overcome to make depression status.


NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: MikeC]
      #15269 - Sat Jun 12 2004 12:40 PM

This system definately needs to be watched. I wouldn't be surprised if it did develop, but then it would not suprise if it didn't amount to anything. Whatever the case, it certainly seems to be trying to organise itself, and this is the most favourable area for a storm to form in June. It is over sufficiently warm SSTs in air that is reasonably moist, although there is substantially drier air not far to the west. This must be one of those 'will it or won't it?' situations. Only time will tell...

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Steve Hirschberg
Unregistered




Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: James88]
      #15270 - Sat Jun 12 2004 12:47 PM

LLC seems like its forming just north of the Yucatan. This should head north, or NNW, to be deflected that way by the frontal boundary coming down the eastern seaboard. Could be Louisiana bound! Cheers!!

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Justin in Miami
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Reged: Thu
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Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Steve Hirschberg]
      #15271 - Sat Jun 12 2004 01:25 PM

Well, possibly the first storm soon...hello everyone. I've been quietly reading everyone's posts and glad to be back for another year!

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Cycloneye
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Steve Hirschberg]
      #15272 - Sat Jun 12 2004 01:26 PM

Regardless if it forms into a TD or a minimal tropical storm plenty of rain will go to the gulf coast next week.Let's see what happens when recon gets in there tommorow if they go as the plan of the day says at link below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?




--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3

Edited by Cycloneye (Sat Jun 12 2004 01:29 PM)


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James88
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Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15273 - Sat Jun 12 2004 01:39 PM

If the system continues to organise things could get very interesting in the next couple of days. Perhaps the next TWO will reveal something new, or maybe a special tropical disturbance statement will be issued sometime soon.

Edited by James88 (Sat Jun 12 2004 01:40 PM)


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HanKFranK
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Reged: Mon
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
93L [Re: James88]
      #15275 - Sat Jun 12 2004 02:08 PM

not terribly surprised about the invest. it looks a tad more promising today, and i've got a hunch on what the big obstacle it will be dealing with is. really already been foreseen by bastardi, with the assymetric system he was describing. there appears to be a weak surface trough associated with 93L on the western periphery of its convection, which may eventually become its low center if it continues to organize. the centroid looks to be around 22/93.. 120 miles or so northwest of merida on the yucatan. this system shouldn't organize quickly, first recon probably won't send back a vortex message tomorrow (assuming things progress). if bastardi's timing is on, there is a 72 hour window for an alex to develop; chances of that look to be where john c put em.. 40% or so. globals still aren't very enthusiastic with this system.
a side note: gale center should cut off in the northwest atlantic, somewhere north/northeast of bermuda, for early next week. though doubtful, there is an outside chance it will hybridize. the western pacific is active.. assuming an MJO wave is inbound, we may get a period of invests trhough the rest of the month, if nothing else.
HF 1807z12june


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Cycloneye
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Reged: Thu
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Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: Watching the Gulf of Mexico [Re: James88]
      #15276 - Sat Jun 12 2004 02:09 PM

It has a small window to develop into a tropical system because a shortwave trough will come down to the gulf coast and then it will make things unfavorable with the shear increasing so timing is important for this disturbance to try to develop.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Rob_M
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Reged: Wed
Posts: 60
Loc: Cary, NC
Still not convinced [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15277 - Sat Jun 12 2004 02:20 PM

Another upper low offshore the TX/MX coast is currently causing a strong area of convergence just west of it...but at the same time is enhancing divergence over our low. This will probably continue to aid convection, but that is all it will do...not a tropical situation at all. Keep in mind this has yet to transition into a warm-core...the interaction between that upper low to the west will not help. That low should scoot south to southeastward over the weekend, and THEN conditions will be a little more conducive for a surface low to develop and perhaps warm-core transition to occur. However...it will be almost immediately afterwards when a shortwave trough digs into the region and create a strong shearing environment. If we don't have a warm-core system by then, we won't have one at all...and given the current setup with the upper low to the west and the lack of surface low, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Bear watching? Definately...but IMO the chance of a classified tropical cyclone is still very slim...

--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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RECON Plan of the Day [Re: Rob_M]
      #15278 - Sat Jun 12 2004 02:59 PM

I'm a little surprised that nobody (except Cycloneye) picked up on this. Go back and look at the recon plan of the day. If TPC decides to send out an aircraft tomorrow afternoon, they will send it to 27N 94W - if development should continue, the second aircraft is heading for 28N 90W twelve hours later. That should give you a hint at the initial thinking regarding 'track' at NHC. The system would be moving east of the ULL and could even outpace the shortwave. It may not develop, but those coordinates should give some insight as to where NHC thinks the 'weather' will be going. Of course those coordinates will change if the system continues to evolve, but it suggests that I should adjust my thinking a little eastward
Cheers,
ED


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: RECON Plan of the Day [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #15279 - Sat Jun 12 2004 03:10 PM

The chances of this developing are zero percent chance

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Cycloneye
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Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
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Re: RECON Plan of the Day [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #15280 - Sat Jun 12 2004 03:19 PM

ED really I didn't thought about that about where they will go to investigate and that will say what track the system will take and that is a good point that you bring.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Rob_M
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Reged: Wed
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Re: RECON Plan of the Day [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15281 - Sat Jun 12 2004 03:21 PM

Great point, Ed. FWIW here are the latest 18Z tropical model plots...



--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: RECON Plan of the Day [Re: Anonymous]
      #15282 - Sat Jun 12 2004 03:22 PM

Whats your meteorological reasoning for suggesting a 0% chance of development?

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: RECON Plan of the Day [Re: Anonymous]
      #15284 - Sat Jun 12 2004 03:40 PM

For one the Global models don't like this system for some reason. Second this whole system is being hold together by a upper low to the east once that is gone in the shear comes in then bye bye!

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LI Phil
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Re: RECON Plan of the Day [Re: Anonymous]
      #15285 - Sat Jun 12 2004 04:33 PM

If they have scheduled 2 recon flights, then there is obviously 0% chance for development. What kind of logic is that? Of course I'm rooting for it (which probably means it won't develop), but as James88 so frequently reminds us, we will have to wait and see. LOL

Cheers & Peace,

LI Phil

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jun 12 2004 10:18 PM)


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HanKFranK
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allow me to philosiphitate [Re: Anonymous]
      #15286 - Sat Jun 12 2004 04:40 PM

anon, that's off-base. globals keep the upper low/trough through the forecast period, so that factor isn't going away. remember that tropical cyclones often form in a shear environment. the shear isn't all that bad (isn't all that good either). i guess saying there is a zero percent chance, there's roughly a sixty percent chance you'll get your outcome. but that's not how probability statistics are meant to work (or else, all you'd ever see on the weather forecast is a zero or 100 percent chance of rain). i'm sure if the NHC thought there was a zero percent chance they wouldn't be sending recon. i guess you're trying to be funny.
rob and i are from different schools of thought about where this thing starts out on the 'tropical-ness' scale. if its in the tropics, over warm waters, convective and closed off it's a tropical cyclone in my book. but then i really don't know how this thing would look on a theta-e diagram. incipient systems even in the deep tropics sometimes start with a cold profile (not something i would hold against them if they have the other necessary features). the models show slightly higher heights overhead the convection (thunderstorm outflow?).. but i doubt that's a true indicator. i guess the other way of thinking is probably more correct, because its what the official sources tend to go by. i listened to joe b a little too much a few years back and tend to think classification standards are often too stringent, but then again five hundred million red chinese dont give a ****. neither does the NHC.
if it's revving up tomorrow and NHC dances around the issue half the board will be complaining about it, which happens every other day when we've got an active storm. it's the way of the world.
HF 2040z12june


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: allow me to philosiphitate [Re: HanKFranK]
      #15287 - Sat Jun 12 2004 04:49 PM

Some good philosphy there, HanKFranK

>>>> "as James88 so frequently reminds us, we will have to wait and see."

Waiting is not something I'm usually good at, but in this case I'm willing to make an exception. I've been caught out several times in the past with systems forming practically overnight. Now I just prefer to sit back and wait, rather than miss something. I will try to use the phrase less Luckily, this doesn't seem to be one of those situations - this system may develop but it seems fairly unlikely.


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teal61
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Spring, TX (30.1N 95.5W)
Looks like there might be some weak turning in the low levels.. [Re: HanKFranK]
      #15288 - Sat Jun 12 2004 04:57 PM

on the west side of the deeper convection northwest of Merida.
Looking at a visible 15 image loop on the NASA GHCC site zoomed in you can pick this up fairly easily. The big question, is this in the low levels, mid levels, or just a vort that those thunderstorms to the east spit out ? Looks to be moving off the the wnw.

Edited by teal61 (Sat Jun 12 2004 04:58 PM)


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Weak and Broad LLC has formed [Re: teal61]
      #15289 - Sat Jun 12 2004 05:24 PM

From the 5:30pm EDT TWO:

a large area of disturbed weather continues over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Caribbean Sea. A weak and broad
low level circulation has formed today over the west-central Gulf
and additional slow development is possible over the next day or
two as the system moves slowly northward. If necessary...an Air
Force plane will investigate the area on Sunday.
Elsewhere tropical storm formation is not expected through Sunday.


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