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Archives >> 2004 Storm Forum

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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form?
      #15197 - Thu Jun 10 2004 09:51 PM

When last storm of 2004 will form?
You may choose only one
September
October
November


Votes accepted from (Thu Jun 10 2004 09:42 PM) to (No end specified)
You must vote before you can view the results of this poll



--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15198 - Thu Jun 10 2004 09:54 PM

Those who want to post a specific date you can do so.

I will say that in november 17th the last storm will form.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? [Re: Cycloneye]
      #15201 - Fri Jun 11 2004 05:34 AM

Quote:

Those who want to post a specific date you can do so.

I will say that in november 17th the last storm will form.




Why not post it on the calander? Do you think Ed would mind?

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? [Re: LadyStorm]
      #15221 - Fri Jun 11 2004 01:51 PM

Hopefully he wouldn't mind. There are already a lot of predictions for the first storm of the season, so why not post a guess for the last storm?

Edited by James88 (Fri Jun 11 2004 01:51 PM)


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2295
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? [Re: James88]
      #15227 - Fri Jun 11 2004 04:21 PM

Sounds like a good idea to me. If I have time, I'll have to develop a similar chronological analysis for 'last storms' of the season.
Cheers,
ED


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #15241 - Fri Jun 11 2004 08:17 PM

Good ED it would be great.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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LadyStorm
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 138
Loc: Palm Coast, Florida
Re: When will the last storm of the 2004 season will form? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #15256 - Sat Jun 12 2004 05:57 AM

Thanks, Ed.

--------------------
"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of
thinking we were at when we created them"

..........Albert Einstein


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
El Nino Influence? [Re: LadyStorm]
      #15433 - Mon Jun 14 2004 05:47 PM

Obviously El Nino would affect the development of storms. The latest forecast calls for neutral ENSO conditions to continue until August, with considerable uncertainty after August. Does anyone believe that El Nino will develop later in the year? Obviously this would have a big effect on when our last named system forms.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2295
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: El Nino Influence? [Re: James88]
      #15436 - Mon Jun 14 2004 07:00 PM

There is generally a three month lag between the onset of an El Nino (or La Nina) ENSO event and its influence on Atlantic basin systems. So even if an El Nino were to appear in September, the Atlantic would not be influenced by it until December or perhaps even January of the following year. When it comes to change, the oceans are conservative, i.e., nothing happens rapidly. It takes the atmospheric patterns about three months to become influenced by the ocean pattern changes. I think that ENSO will remain essentially neutral until at least October, which would mean no influence at all on this tropical season. Now, armed with that (somewhat precarious) knowledge, its your turn to bit the bullet and make a forecast fpr the date of the naming of the last storm of the season - and believe me, there is about 'zero' science and 100percent luck (if you should happen to hit the date) in doing that. I'm still working on that 'last storm' analysis that I promised earlier.
Cheers,
ED


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: El Nino Influence? [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #15437 - Mon Jun 14 2004 07:19 PM

Can I get back to you with that guess in say, November?

Just kidding. Since I was "this close" with my first storm guess, I'll say Halloween for this year. We had no action to speak of in November last year, and then, BAM, Odette & Peter (and almost got to Rose). Would have been interesting if our last two storms were Peter & Rose (=Pete Rose).

Anyway, mark me down for 10/31, and since I'm guessing there'll be 14 named storms, then I guess that will be "Nicole".

Cheers,

LI Phil

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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James88
Weather Master


Reged: Tue
Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: El Nino Influence? [Re: LI Phil]
      #15447 - Tue Jun 15 2004 01:36 AM

Since I'm guessing we'll have fourteen named, I'll go with November 8th for the formation of Nicole.

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2295
Loc: Melbourne, FL
The Last Storm of the Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #15516 - Fri Jun 18 2004 08:56 PM

As promised, here is a weekly statistical breakdown for the past 100 years of the last storm of the season. The format is the same. i.e., Week of the Season, Number (or percent) of years that the last storm occurred during that week, and a cumulative percentage. In a few rare years, the last storm of the season has occurred in the early part of the next year (January/February). It does happen, but these rare cases were not considered since they really did not add anything to the purpose of the analysis.

08/30 - 09/05: 1 'last storm' / 1 total
09/06 - 09/12: 1 / 2
09/13 - 09/19: 3 / 5
09/20 - 09/26: 5 / 10
09/27 - 10/03: 2 / 12
10/04 - 10/10: 9 / 21
10/11 - 10/17: 16 / 37
10/18 - 10/24: 15 / 52
10/25 - 10/31: 10 / 62
11/01 - 11/07: 10 / 72
11/08 - 11/14: 11 / 83
11/15 - 11/21: 6 / 89
11/22 - 11/28: 6 / 95
11/29 - 12/05: 0 / 95
12/06 - 12/12: 4 / 99
12/13 - 12/19: 0 / 99
12/20 - 12/26: 0 / 99
12/27 - 01/02: 1 / 100

Notes:
1930 had two storms for the season. The last one became a TS on 08/31.
1914 only had one storm - thus the first and the last storm of that season.
1954 - the second 'ALICE' of the season became a TS on 12/30 and remained a named storm through 01/06/55.
1993 and 2002 are recent examples of seasons that ended in September.
1984 and 2003 are recent examples of seasons that ended in December.

Don't know if any of this will really be of much help to you when it comes to deciding on when the last storm of this season will happen. Statistically the season ends between October 11th and October 24th.

My own SWAG for this year? - Well I'll pick November 11th
Cheers,
ED


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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker


Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
Re: The Last Storm of the Season [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #15520 - Fri Jun 18 2004 10:33 PM

Great stats ED thanks for posting them.

--------------------
My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3


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